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12/24 |
2008/3/11-13 [Finance/Investment] UID:49428 Activity:nil |
3/11 The next bubble: priming the markets for tomorrow's big crash http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908 \_ GLOBAL RECESSION! I told you so! -recession swami |
2008/3/11-13 [Science/Electric, Finance/Investment] UID:49425 Activity:moderate |
3/11 Interest rate going below 0%? Is that silly or what? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23547244/page/2 \_ yeah its silly. Other stuff can happen that they dont mention in that article, especially since the circumstances look distrubingly like current environment. See, for example in that article, especially since the circumstances look distrubingly like current environment. See, for example disturbingly like current environment. See, for example http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_trap |
2008/3/9-11 [Computer/SW/Database, Finance/Investment] UID:49395 Activity:nil 72%like:49393 |
3/9 Financial crisis enters "the third wave" http://preview.tinyurl.com/25xnwp (nytimes.com) \_ This seems like a good link, but it's a bit too technical and too dense. Can someone please summarize for me? Greatly appreciate this! -lib art major (only 600 on SAT math) |
2008/3/9 [Computer/SW/Database, Finance/Investment] UID:49393 Activity:nil 72%like:49395 |
3/9 Financial crisis enters "the third wave" http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/08/whats-ben-doing-very-wonkish |
2008/3/8-11 [Finance/Investment] UID:49390 Activity:moderate |
3/8 The median household earned $48,201 in 2006, down from $49,244 in 1999, according to the Census Bureau. It now looks as if a full decade may pass before most Americans receive a raise. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/08/business/08recession.html \_ It's ok, the tech industry is immune to a recession! Here's a personal data: I JUST GOT A RAISE! So, there! I'm sure those in the construction and blue collar industry aren't doing so well. But if you're Berkeley educated, there's no reason why you should be worried about a frigging RECESSION. \_ proof positive they all should have bought a house in 1999 </joking> \_ That's no joke. --bought in 99, doing great \_ Is your household income 48k? If so, which of Idaho, Nebraska, or Wisconson do you live in? \_ Is your household income 48k? If so, which of Idaho, Nebraska, or Wisconson do you live in? \_ you might want to look up the term "median" \_ You might want to look at the subject of the post. \_ What about it? |
2008/3/4-7 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:49335 Activity:kinda low 85%like:49333 |
3/4 Um, holy crap? http://preview.tinyurl.com/2f8nqd (cnn.com) \_ http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/03/bernanke-to-lenders-reduce-principal.html \_ http://preview.tinyurl.com/36bxx3 (calculatedrisk.blogspot.com) Insert theme from your favorite horror movie here. \_ Serious does this mean homes will be affordable again? Seriously? Man I can't wait -bitter missed out guy \_ Affordable is relative. The price of the home isn't nearly as important as your monthly payment on it and how long you have to pay that number. \_ This makes absolute sense esp. for ppl with low IQs. The rate at which home prices balloon or sink... where do you take that into consideration? The affordability index has been shrinking for the last 15 years, and given a historical cyclical market isn't it prudent to wait for the other side of the cycle? I mean, affordability is relative, but that should not be the only factor used in such a complex and expensive decision. \_ And the final variable would be the interest rate. Thanks for the math lesson. WTF are you trying to say? \_ He's saying that if the interest rate doubles while prices fall in half it doesn't make housing much more affordable for people who are financing the purchase. Maybe that's clear to you, but a lot of people seem to overlook that the payment means more than the price in many instances. \_ People are supposed to save up a significant downpayment, if banks are being responsible. Prices should matter in the real world. In fantasy bubble land where government saves the day maybe it doesn't matter. \_ No. This means that the shit that has been hitting the fan for the last year is going to continue to hit the fan. In fact, some of the shit that hit it already is going to circle back for a few more wacks. \_ If many homeowners are experiencing "shit hitting the fan" doesn't it imply all the spectators will soon be in a position to cherry pick shit soon? \_ Not if the economy gets totally fucked by the housing crisis. Hence the horror movie soundtrack, etc... \_ We won't hit bottom until people think real estate is dead. As long as there are a lot of spectators thinking they are going to cherry pick we won't get there. Serious investors aren't worried about predicting a bottom. They bought 20 years ago, 10 years ago, 5 years ago, 2 years ago, and last week - but they bought what made sense to buy. Finding bargains might be getting easier, but financing what you find is tougher meaning that only the all-cash guys (you know, the pros) can stay in. \_ Yes, this is exactly true. However, SFH have been mostly financed by fairy dust the last few years, so they are going to have the furthest to fall. Not to say that the credit crunch won't hit multi-famliy and commercial real estate, I am sure it will, but the valuations are not as out of whack. \_ I've paid my mortgage on time every month for years. Who is going to 'fix' my loan so I don't have to pay so much anymore? \_ One word for you: SUCKER! \_ Obviously I should have defaulted then the gvt would have rescued me from my own stupidity because clearly I would have been a "victim" of a "predatory" loan. sigh. I need a nanny state law passed to take care of me, too! \_ Did you even read the article? \_ Yes. I read both links. Did you? \_ Yes. Where did you make the logical leap from a voluntary agreement between a bank and a home owner to a gvt bailout? |
12/24 |
2008/3/4 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:49333 Activity:nil 85%like:49335 |
3/4 Um, holy crap? http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-23516253.htm |
2008/2/28-3/4 [Politics/Foreign/Asia/Korea, Finance/Investment] UID:49291 Activity:nil |
2/28 I just found out N Korea has been printing superbills in an attempt to devaluate American dollars. What's scary about this is that the superbills are indistinguishable from real printed money. That is so fucked up. Damn you Kim Jong Il! \_ I doubt he was doing it just to devaluate US dollars. It's not like he couldn't use the money. \_ BTW, does counterfeiting one currency have any effect on other currencies other than the exchange rates against the counterfeited currency? \- pakistan also counterfitted INR 500Rs rupee notes. i think it most you can cause problem in a small area. like this led to Rs 500 rupee notes not being accepted in nepal, but not that big a problem all over. \_ Probably more for the desperately needed foreign goods than to devalue the dollar. \_ They should start running the African Nigerian scam with a N Korea twist. They can profit from dumb ass greedy Americans while teaching Americans a lesson. |
2008/2/19-22 [Computer/SW/Security, Finance/Investment] UID:49189 Activity:nil |
2/19 http://tinyurl.com/2ymrrc (yahoo.com) GOOG filing warns on near-revenue growth on reduction of accidental clickthroughs \_ Wow. I didn't know they were making money from deceiving click regions. \_ the monkey wants to be clicked |
2008/2/14-18 [Finance/Investment] UID:49146 Activity:kinda low |
2/14 Full-time and summer internship jobs available at Bain Capital. Use CS to invest in stocks/bonds/commodities/etc. Postings at http://tinyurl.com/3blwm2 and http://tinyurl.com/2tqe8c \_ Isn't this Mitt Romney's company? \_ Can I use my CS skills to assfuck school districts for phat bonus? Not that there's anything wrong with that. Survival of the fittest ba-by! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ay5LDbjbjy6c http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1202912760.php \_ does it matter? \_ Yes. \_ Why? Where do you work that isn't involved in some way with someone you don't like? \_ There are lots of places to work that don't have upper management I dislike. Your argument is silly. So I should work at a company run by Charles Manson because where can I "work that isn't involved in some way with someone [I] don't like?" \_ So you're equating Charles Manson with Mitt Romney? And you call me silly? We're done here. \_ I'm just taking your argument to the extreme to point out how ridiculous it is. I mean, I may as well work with Manson because where can I work that isn't involved with someone I dislike? I never equated Romney with Manson other than to say I dislike them both. |
2008/2/6-11 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:49080 Activity:nil |
2/6 I want to open up a money market account, and I'm debating between an ING Direct acct and a ETrade one. Which one is preferable? Should I just go with the ETrade acct since it offers 4.4% interest (vs. the 3.4% offered by ING)? Thanks. \_ Are you worried about ETrade going belly up? \_ Go for Etrade, and when their rate tanks switch to another service. ING Direct has really low rates, I no longer use them. Make sure to check out other services like Emigrantdirect, GMAC, IndyMac, etc. I'd stick to Etrade since they're well established and their teaser rates (currently 4.4%) seem to last longer than any of the other places. Good luck and tell us what you ended up deciding! \_ I like GMAC because transactions post very quickly, you can write checks from the account, they have ATM fee reimbursements, and their rate is almost always quite competitive. |
2008/2/1-6 [Academia/Berkeley/Classes, Finance/Investment] UID:49044 Activity:kinda low |
2/1 Facebook finances leaked http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/01/31/facebook-finances-leaked Losses for 2007: $50 million Projected losses for 2008: $150 million dans, over to you \_ bubble 2.0 \_ Possibly. I've never said different. IMO it's good to be a geek during a tech bubble. -dans during a tech bubble. Let me amend that. It's good to be a geek in a tech bubble if you're not greedy. -dans \_ why? \_ Is there a point you're trying to make? I should note that the figures you link to don't indicate a loss in 2007, and referring to figures handed to the press on a silver platter as a leak is silly. -dans \_ YHBT |
2008/1/30-2/2 [Finance/Investment] UID:49036 Activity:low |
1/30 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM4dOmbQIYTk S&P downgrades, sets "credit watch negative" to $534 billion in RMBS and CDO issues. Boooo! \_ http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN3023531520080130 FGIC downgraded to AA as well. \_ Boooo! \_ So the market appears to have shrugged off all the bad news. Time to buy? |
2008/1/25-2/2 [Transportation/Car/RoadHogs, Finance/Investment] UID:49016 Activity:moderate |
1/25 "The general process of suburbanization is, the richer you are, the more likely you move to the suburbs," says Julie Martin, a senior demographer for the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia. \_ Why does JFK junior live in NYC? \_ He lives with the worms, now. \_ Obviously true in the DC area, obvioiusly false in most of the world. \_ Yes, because a motd anecdote is superior to a researcher at a university. If you look at the wealthiest areas in the US in terms of income they are almost all, if not all, suburbs. \_ No, the wealthiest areas in the US and world are in cities. \_ No, the wealthiest areas in the US and the world are in cities. See Pac Heights, The Upper East Side, Kensington in London, The First Addrosmont (sic?) in Paris, etc. In the Bay Area The 7th Arrondissement in Paris, etc. In the Bay Area \- dont you mean the 8e/triangle d'or. --psb per capita income is as follows: Marin - 44.9k San Mateo - 36k SF - 34.5k CoCo - 30.6k Alameda - 26.7k \_ See, Marin is wealthier than SF. \_ So is San Mateo. The data does not say what he thinks it says. \_ And Alameda county is really urban, not suburban and\ CoCo County is just an outlier. Right? \_ What does that make SF besides 3rd choice? \_ Does the evidence presented support or refute the statement "The wealthier you are, the more likely you are to live in the suburbs?" Hint: what is the contrapostiive of that statement? what is the contrapositive of that statement? \_ There isn't enough evidence to refute anything without providing some more data like population figures. Are the numbers you gave medians or averages? What is the margin of error? Fact is the wealthiest communities in the nation are suburban, not urban. Even your stats show that. \_ It actually depends on what you mean by the word "communities" actually. Is a county synomymous with community? \_ It depends on what you mean by the word "communities." Is a county synomymous with community? \_ It can be and in most of the country it is. CA has some massive counties where it might not be true, but SF is not one of those. \_ More like, true to a certain extent based on economic migration patterns in cities like NYC and Detroit; tends to break down after a certain economic level and depends heavily on how attractive inner-city neighborhoods are in a given city. \_ http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/076903.html It is more complicated than that. The wealthy and the poor tend to both move to the suburbs, for differing reasons. |
2008/1/23-31 [Finance/Investment] UID:48995 Activity:kinda low |
1/23 Need retirement savings advice: if I had the foresight to move from market index funds into treasuries at DJIA 14K, and put them back into market index funds at DJIA 12K, and not touched the fucker again until 14K, would that have been a feasible move? Yeah, I know, it's like saying, "If I could have bought puts on GOOG at 730 and sold them now when GOOG's at 530", but it's a slightly different question. \_ Trying to time the market is very difficult, but you can always try. Maybe you should start out doing with some percentage of your retirment fund (like 1/4) and see how you do before risking the whole thing. \_ Umm, maybe he should not be doing this with retirement fund money. \_ I don't see why not, unless he is really close to retirement. If he screws up and loses some small part of it (1/2 of the 1/4 he played with) then he has to cut back on spending a bit so he can save more, or expect to work a bit longer or whatever. What is sacrosanct about retirement fund money? Since your risk horizon is probably longer, it actually makes since to push it a bit. \_ You have a point, sort of. It's not a bad idea to do all your most tax-inefficient stuff in a retirement account. However, you can only put so much money in these tax advantaged accounts, so I don't think it's the best place to fuck up. Therefore I wouldn't suggest "experimenting" in a retirement account. \_ I don't understand your question. \_ If all this is in an IRA or 401(k), are there typically fees for transferring out of $80K invested in a market index fund and into treasuries, and back after 9 months, and if so, what are the fees typically? \_ Beating the market is a zero sum game. For every dollar invested in the stock market that gets a 1% better than average return, another dollar invested in the market underperforms the average return rate by 1%. Just *trying* to beat the market will cost you in transaction fees for each attempt at something clever. When you're right, they'll cut into your returns, and when you're wrong, they'll increase your losses even further. On the other hand, *matching* the market's average return rate is trivially easy and inexpensive in management fees (use an index fund). If you're convinced that you're psychic, try this on paper for a while before you gamble with your retirement money. \_ about what kind of fee can I expect for a $100K move out of an index fund and into a treasury fund (and vice versa) let's say at a Fidelity managed IRA? thanks. \_ It depends on the brokerage, account type, the specific funds involved, and sometimes the circumstances of the transaction. If you've got a specific enough transaction in mind, call your broker and ask. \_ yeah, but do you, or does anyone on soda happen to know off-hand the typical fee for the specifics I described? \_ No. I don't have an IRA with Fidelity, and am unfamiliar with their fee structure. If I were moving $100k in or out of the exchange traded index funds I've been using in my Schwab brokerage (non-ira) account, it would cost me about $10. Your mileage *will* vary. \_ thanks! just wanted a rough number. this also tells me that not many sodans know this number. \_ We're not your web searching lap dogs, ass wipe. \_ Let me paraphrase what I just said. "Schwab charges $10 for stock trades in institutional accounts." Do you still think I've given you information relevant to your situation? \_ Why not call your broker and ask? We don't know what *your* fees are. \_ this is true in general, I agree -op \_ We are going to see SPX 750, possibly 500. Get out of the market NOW. |
2008/1/23 [Finance/Investment] UID:48992 Activity:nil |
1/23 Buy buy buy GOOG at 530! When they announce increased market share and positive outlook, this stock is gonna bust out to new highs! </sarcasm> |
2008/1/21-31 [Finance/Investment] UID:48978 Activity:nil |
1/21 More lame financial headlines today: FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40 down 5.5 to 7%. DJIA futures down 500pts. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCtQL5b_rCM (jump to 1:00 minute) \_ nah, 3:20 is better. lol! http://highprobability.blogspot.com \_ There are some who feel like that uh if we have shitty economic policies it might bite us in the ass. They don't understand what they're talking about if that's the case. Let me finish. Um, there are some who feel like conditions are such that there might be a recession. My answer is: bring it on. \_ Don't daytrade (or go to Vegas) with money you dan't afford to lose. Good lesson to learn that early in life. \_ da-mn. today's headline is: "I sold the BOTTOM" \_ This guy appears to be the perfect contra indicator. \_ maybe it's cmlee, the Anti-Analyst! |
2008/1/17-23 [Finance/Investment] UID:48964 Activity:nil |
1/17 So, I'm thinking about starting up a post-tax investment account with individual stocks. (In other words, I'd like to get into small-time stock trading to try it out.) What's the best/cheapest way to do this? E-trade? Fidelity? \_ Any broker is fine. I use my bank (Wells Fargo) because they make it easy to transfer money from checking to savings to brokerage account and the fees are about average. \_ Fun answer: http://thinkorswim.com has a very powerful software program to trade options, futures, and stocks. They have a "paper money" feature where you can place virtual trades and track how you are doing. Tell us how you do! http://tinyurl.com/yrurvv Boring answer: Scottrade \_ If you are looking for cheapest, Scottrade is pretty hassle-free. Another option is Sharebuilder, which is a bit different in that you buy a dollar amount worth of stocks instead of whole stocks. I think it can theoretically be used to purchase those with high per-share prices, but I have no experience with it. -Scottrade customer \_ Supposedly tradeking is all right, and $5 is reasonably cheap for trades. MB trading is okay and has quite cheap trades, but don't have a web trading interface (you have to use this windows program). Zecco gives you a certain amount of "free" trades, which would theoretically be great for DCA into ETFs or something, but I must warn you that their customer service is the worst I've ever seen (or more like non-existent, I guess). They dinged me with invalid "margin interest" debits, and I don't even have a margin account. Granted, these debits were less than the several dollars worth of trades I've done there, but when I emailed their customer service, I got one bullshit email response, and then they just ignored the rest of them. |
2008/1/16-18 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:48958 Activity:high |
1/16 Nikkei 225 back to lows of 2001-2005 and 1986. Dang. I thought stock markets of developed countries were supposed to return more than a savings account over 22 years! \_ If you cherry pick your dates, then no it won't. If you cherry pick the other way you'd be a zillionaire. \_ i guess we're supposed to wait 40 years? \_ No, you're supposed to not cherry pick the dates. Or better yet, just put your money in your piggy bank. \_ If you are really interested in this topic, I suggest that you read _Stocks_For_The_Long_Run_ by Siegel. Plenty of developed countries stock markets have gone all the way to zero, usually after they lost a war. If you held German stocks from 1933 to 1945, you were pretty unhappy. On the other hand, if you bought the Nikkei back in 1950, you are still sitting on a very impressive gain. The Nikkei is *still* not back to where it was in 1989, so yes, you can cherry pick dates and demonstrate practically anything. Diversification and a long term view are essential for success investing, especially passive investing, like the stock market. You should not have money in stocks that you need in the next 20 years. -ausman \_ Guys, conventional wisdom is that you should invest in a market index and hold x years, and you're virtually guaranteed to do okay. What is "x" for returns better than a savings account / CD / bonds? -op \_ Wrong assumption. The stock market gives you likely better returns than a more conservative option like a CD, with a probability curve that starts at x and rises towards 100% over time. -tom \_ Also you have to diversify to prevent being really screwed when one sector/company/country tanks for 20 years. \_ what do you estimate the probability of a market index outperforming CDs is for x = 30 years? do you have a sweet spot for x? let's also assume we are moving from stocks to bonds/safety as we get older, also as CFPs suggest. to bonds/safety as we get older, as CFPs suggest. \_ You could estimate this by looking at historical 30-year returns and seeing how many of those periods resulted in returns less than 5%/year average. I expect that probability is very low, less than 10%. -tom |
2008/1/9-12 [Finance/Investment] UID:48916 Activity:nil |
1/9 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEX73qWiBrb4 Median GDP growth of +1.5% for 1H08 according to 62 economists Fuckers GS, MER, MS predict recession in 2008 GS says recession "will be mild by historical standards", unemployment at 6.5% in 2009. \_ Co-incidentally, MS, MER and GS partners will all see reduced bonuses this year. The best possibility for them to regain their fat paychecks is to convince the Fed to lower interest rates. |
2008/1/8-11 [Finance/Investment] UID:48909 Activity:nil |
1/8 Have your broker buy-buy-buy Countrywide credit default swaps! They now pay 26% of amount insured first year, 5% four subsequent years! http://tinyurl.com/2m8m2b (Reuters) \_ High risk, high reward |
2007/12/26-2008/1/4 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:48860 Activity:moderate |
12/25 Seriously dans. What is the age group of the people at your startup? 25? 26? Mostly unmarried and no mortgage I presume? \_ It's a wide range. Yes, we have some folks who are 25 or younger, but we have several people who are in their early 40's and have families (including kids) and mortgages. Actually, a surprising number of the folks under 30 own in SF. -dans \_ Born to money? \_ No, married, no kids, and both parties have near or above six-figure incomes. -dans \_ Did they really save $100k in five years on less than $100k/yr salary? That is kind of amazing. Was this a couple who bought or a single person? Even $100k/yr won't get you close to the typical $1M SF home. Did they buy a condo? \_ 'both parties have near or above six-figure incomes' So $1M is not uncommon in SF, but there are things that go for less, I'd say $700K is more average, but I haven't looked at prices in a while. Some people purchased condos, some people purchased in more outlying districts where property values are less. -dans \_ That phrase can be interpreted in one of two ways: 1) two separate people each bought a home or 2) two people together bought a home I thought you meant the latter, but I wasn't sure so I clarified. $700k is average for all sales in SF, condos included. SFH only is upwards of $1M, but yes, you can get a place for much less in some neighborhoods. I still wonder about the downpayment. That is some mighty good saving, if they actually did it on their own. \_ I've saved more than $100K in less than 4 years, on a single income of < $100K a year, with a wife and 2 kids, in the Bay Area, ignoring 401K. BWAHAHAHA! \_ Congratulations. What does that mean, ignoring 401k? Not including the 401k into the $100k? Even more impressive! How much is your rent? Does your wife work? \_ Yes, I didn't include my 401K in that total, and my wife does not work. I'm helped a lot by the fact that my job is in a suburb, so I can get a 2 bed 1 bath duplex for $1150 a mo near my work. \_ Your presumption was incorrect. Are you actually going to change your behavior or working set of assumptions based on this? Or was this just a troll? -dans |
2007/12/21-29 [Reference/Tax, Finance/Investment] UID:48849 Activity:nil |
12/21 Anyone recommend a good accountant in SF? Mine moved to corporate accounts and dropped me -- I expect to pay $500-$1000 for tax prep and they need to know AMT/.com bubble stock issues. |
2007/12/18-29 [Finance, Finance/Investment] UID:48831 Activity:low |
12/18 Awesome juxtaposition of headlines: Scientists fear Arctic thaw has reached 'tipping point' and Arctic Sea Ice Re-Freezing at Record Pace http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2007/12/congrats-to-the.html \_ Thank God. Once it tips can we stop hearing about this fraud on working people everywhere? TIP! TIP! I want to hear about global cooling for a few years (again). \_ Tipping point meaning that after thawing a while now it will freeze \_ Hey, global climate change skeptic: how about buying some oceanfront property, maybe 2-3 feet above sea level, oceanfront property, and maybe 2-3 feet above sea level, somewhere? \_ Why? Even the worst predictions of the IPCC say I'll be fine for at least 100 years. \_ so sea level's supposed to stay the same for 100 years and suddenly jump? I don't think so... \_ No, the worst predictions are 20cm rise in the next century. So all I have to do is be at 2-3 feet and I'll be fine for at least 100 years by the most alarming estimate. But I expect the global warming hoax to be completely gone in the next 5-10 years anyway. \_ Then we'll be talking about global cooling and how that is a man-made problem caused by C02. \_ Are you going to aplogize to us all when you are proven wrong? \_ Are you going to apologize to us all when (okay, if) you are proven wrong? |
2007/12/12-19 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:48788 Activity:nil |
12/12 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119746804568523549.html Fed offers term auction facility to address credit freeze - Effective operation almost exactly like the Fed discount window: Banks can borrow money from the Fed at weeks to months duration - But at or near the fed funds target (instead of the discount rate) - The key feature (not discussed in the article of course) is Anonymity. Only the Fed will know who it lends to using this facility. Banks don't borrow from the discount window because it's public knowledge, telling the world that no other bank will lend to you so you had to go to the discount window. - The Fed is on the hook if the borrower goes belly-up, so it will decide who gets how much in loans for how much collateral - Starts next week for $20B and is envisioned as an ongoing program - Fed also lent $24B to ECB and Swiss central bank to help Europe's banks with SIV/CDO implosion. Central banks also relaxing collateral requirements. \_ Expect the taxpayer to get screwed in the end. \_ privatize profits, socialize losses bitch! |
2007/12/5-7 [Finance/Shopping, Finance/Investment] UID:48748 Activity:high |
12/4 Fed's guide to save the economy (feel free to add): -print more money -lower interest rate \_ that sounds more like a recipe for inflation to me. \_ Inflation might save the economy by allowing us to pay back debts with cheap dollars. In fact, I think this is the idea. \_ Is there a less painful way to get rid of the huge debt than inflating it to insignificance? \_ Exactly. Inflation isn't always bad from the government's perspective. Inflation has worked before, and it'll work again. -finish collapsing the dollar so we can switch to the Amero! - Bushonomics in action \_ What exactly is Bushonomics? More tax cuts? Unlikely in the light of the Federal deficit. \_ Massive deficit spending, tax cuts, more defence spending. Continuing to drive down the value of the dollar in hopes of closing the trade gap. \_ How are we supposed to close the trade gap when the US doesn't actually produce much that the world wants to buy? Start selling US properties? \_ Developing countries buying US properties is an interesting situation. By buying a US asset, they are effectively investing in the US economy, instead of their own. Buying a US asset or US services pumps money into the US economy. Obviously, if US stuff was cheap enough the world would want to buy it. They already buy lots of our big ticket items like jumbo jets, large industrial equipment, etc. Most Chinese manufacturing is not so specialized that you couldn't just do it here if it was cost effective. \_ It will never be as cost effective, because the US cares more about worker rights, the environment, consumer safety, and so on. \_ Never is a long time. -Start a new war -Stop foreclosures by bailing out dumb asses. |
2007/11/30-12/6 [Finance/Investment] UID:48718 Activity:nil |
11/30 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajeZ0OYVe4.o 3Q GDP +1.2% compared to second quarter (x 4 = 4.9% at annual rate) Corporate profits -1.2% compared to second quarter When GDP goes up as corporations lose money ... PROFIT!! |
2007/11/27-30 [Politics/Domestic/Election, Finance/Investment] UID:48695 Activity:very high |
11/26 Media lavishes attention on bogus Zogby poll showing Hillary trailing while ignoring reputable Gallup poll http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/horsesmouth/2007/11/media_lavishes.php \_ More proof of liberal media bias. \_ I think you're being sarcastic, but one could make that argument since Hillary is probably the farthest right of the Dem canidates. However, what the media really hates is a sure bet. A sure-win canidate reduces the drama and reportability. \_ Both polls are meaningless since we don't elect the POTUS in a general election, otherwise Gore would have won in 2000. Only State by State polls matter, assuming any poll does. Frankly, most of the polls survey such a tiny number of people they're all highly questionable. Show me a poll of 2000+ LV's and I'll pay attention. \_ There is one meaningful point--much of Hillary's support is because of "electability". If she's not as electable as previously believed, that may erode her support. \_ I understand that "electability" is what got Kerry nominated too. \_ I don't actually think that is true, since Edwards is clearly more "electable." While it is true that Hillary supporters often tout her electability, I think it is because they know it is her weakest point and they are trying to pre-empt Obama and Edwards' attacks on the point. FWIW, Obama is probably no more electable than she is. -Edwards supporter \_ Why do you support Edwards? \_ I agree with him on the big issues: the Iraq War, which he thinks was a mistake and wants to wind down as quickly as possible; healthcare, which he wants to reform and ensure complete covereage, with the most comprehensive plan of anyone; and campaign finance reform, where he has consistenly taken a stance against the open buying and selling of political favors which is what K Street has become these days. He also would use the bully pulpit to bring attention to the issue of widening income imbalance, which no one else seems to even notice or care about. I disagree with him on a few things, like free trade, but those are not large enough issues for me and he is not enough of a protectionist for me to be too worried. I also think he has a wider appeal than any of the other candidates from either party and because of this might be able to correct our drift away from a dangerous and unhealthy extreme partisanship that has become the other candidates from either party and because of this might be able to correct our drift toward a danger- ous and unhealthy extreme partisanship that has become endemic lately. I know I partly say this just because I grew up poor and white too, and so his story resonants with me, but polls bear out that he has the most support from independent voters of any candidate. He also doesn't poll that badly amongst Republicans, probably because of his southern accent and his open declarations of faith. \_ Why don't people understand that universal healthcare will bankrupt this country in a way that Bush's stupid war could only dream of? Any candidate that advocates such a plan should be voted down just as if he was advocating invading Iran. \_ Why aren't all the Western Democracies bankrupt then? Why don't people understand that nationalized healthcare has worked and saved the overall economy vastly in every place that it has been tried? \_ 1. The US pays their (expensive) defense bills for them. 2. They will be bankrupt soon enough. \_ Point 1 really means the American tax payer pays for their defense. We also pay for their health care to a large degree because their governments hold down the price of drugs artificially. \_ Don't kid yourself. What percentage of health care is drug costs? \_ A lot. You tell me otherwise. How much was the drug bill they passed a year or two ago? How much will it balloon up in 10-20 years? \_ Spending on perscription drugs is less than 10% of the overall national cost of health care. This is not a large proportion. http://www.csua.org/u/k3z (IHT) It will grow unless we do something drastic, like nationalize health care spending though, you are right there. \_ Sure they will. Conservatives have been saying that about Sweden for at least 60 years now and in that time, they have actually been closing the gap with America economically. This is an interesting time to claim that anyone else is going "bankrupt" \_ People always point to Sweden. How about Germany, Japan, and France? Here's a good article about France: http://tinyurl.com/22bc73 \_ Sweden has the highest tax rate. Similar arguments can be made for Germany and France, though. Japan actually has a lower tax rate than the US. \_ Sweden has the highest oveall tax burden. You can make the same general arguement for most of Europe: the argument for most of Europe: the economy is doing just fine, in spite of decades of Conservative insistence that the mixed model cannot possibly work. Their per capita income has actually closed with the US over any period in the past you care to measure it for. France is kind of a basket case, but it has been for a long time. Japan actually has a relatively low overall tax burden, slightly lower than the US. \_ You should ask the Swedes what they think about the way Sweden runs things. \_ It's a Democracy, right? \_ It's a democracy, isn't it? \_ If you think democratic government implies satisfaction with the government, politicians, policy, or the way the country is going you are breathtakingly retarded. \_ argumentum ad hominem \_ What do you think should be done about income imbalance? \_ Tax the rich til they aint rich no more! \_ Have any actual constructive suggestions? \_ That was it. \_ Spend more on education and job retraining, especially for people displace by globalization. Repair our badly neglected infrastructure, which should employ lots of people and fix some of our transportation issues at the same time. What ideas do you have? \_ The domestic income gap is related to global income gaps and thus ties in to trade issues and currency issues. When you have "jobs Americans won't do" the system is broken. To reduce the income gap you have to either raise the floor or lower the ceiling. Lowering the ceiling seems backwards to me. To raise the floor you have to protect "lower level" jobs to some extent, protect the value of human labor vs. global competition. \_ See, you are a protectionist, too! I am not fundamentally disagreeing with you, but I don't think it is very easy, or perhaps not even really possible to "protect" these lower skill jobs without screwing up your economy in the long run. How would you propose doing it? Tariffs? Closing the border? Trying to impose labor or environmental standards on our trading partners? All of these are problamatic, for different reasons. \_ Well I'm not really advocating protectionism, but that is what I see it amounting to if you see imbalance as a big problem. It's not something I've ever really been concerned about. I think we should end guest worker programs. It does not help Americans. It's a form of subsidy and protectionism for inefficient uses of resources. I'm not a fan of H1B either. We need to invest in our own people, not bring in foreign workers, unless those workers are truly unique. H1Bs to do low-level interchangeable tech work is bad. letting skilled workers move here permanently is ok by me but only at a controlled rate. We need to let market forces work to find the proper use of our own workers in our own land. For trade though, labor and environmental standards have to be part of the equation. Ethical standards can't be allowed to affect competitive advantage. I think China has a natural competitive advantage in mfg'ing in its labor supply, but tax and currency issues can still hurt us. issues can still hurt us. I think our national monetary policy and debt and inflation issues hurt low-income workers around the world and contributes to global income disparity. \_ I would like you to explain your last sentence, because I don't see it. How does our monetary, debt and inflation policy hurt low-income workers around the world? Inflation causes rise in asset prices without corresponding wage _/ increases. Since the world economy is historically dollar-driven, as dollar-denominated assets such as oil rise in value, poor workers lose. They have the least assets. US policy of massive deficit spending and monetary supply increases has broad effects on the world economy. Dollar inflation cancels out real wage value increases for economies dependent on the dollar. Here are some articles: http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2006/cr021506.htm http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HC22Ad02.html The author of the second article has tons of other articles, all very long and rambling. Have fun. all very long and rambling. In that one he eventually talks about Hitler. Have fun. Honestly though I'm in way over my head with this economics stuff. (Unfortunately I get the feeling that most of our politicians are even more so.) \_ That Asia Times article is really long and mostly disjointed. It reminds me a lot of some of Lyndon LaRouche's stuff. Have you actually read it? The Ron Paul thing was amusing, but mostly wrong or irrelevant. I don't think inflation has the effect that you seem to think that it has. The big losers in an inflationary environment are people who depend on fixed income investments, like retirees. The working poor don't feel too much effect, since their paychecks are going up with prices in a truly inflationary environment. What we are seeing now is not really inflation, but a redistribution of purchasing power. This is painful to the US, but probably feels pretty good to China. \_ I at least skimmed most of it. What exactly is wrong in the Ron Paul speech? China has its own income imbalance problem. I don't know if average Chinese feels that great earning a couple bucks a day, producing crap for Americans, with inflation in prices to offset their wage gains. But I don't know, if overall they are gaining real purchasing power then that's good... Real inflation is higher than the official inflation figures. Look at the costs of: education, medical care, drugs, energy over the last couple decades. Wages for the lowest level jobs have not grown much if at all. Food prices are on the rise here and in China. Inflation hits the poor and middle class much more than the wealthy. Their savings are depreciated and the low wages don't keep pace, and they don't have valuable assets. \_ We are not in any kind of inflationary environment. If we were, wages would be going up as well as prices, that is what I keep telling you. Some things have gone up in price, but many things are going down, like just about anything that can be built in China. Real purchasing power for urban Chinese has been going up very fast, but the rural farmers are being left behind. A discussion of what is wrong with the Gold Standard would require a new topic, I am not going to go into it here. Inflation has winners and losers, to be sure, but you can't just make the blanket statement that it hurts the poor more than the rich. Economically, it is actually the opposite of that, because the poor have no assets to lose, while many rich become poor (okay, usually middle class) in an inflationary environment. Things like bonds get killed in inflation. Stocks do poorly as well. Some kinds of hard assets (like land) hold up well, but that is not how most rich people hold their wealth anymore. \_ Do you really think there is no inflation? I think we're done here as you're just making contrary assertions and this thread is gigantic. \_ Do you want me to point you to any of the official or unofficial statistics from the experts who measure inflation? Inflation is low by any reasonable standard, certainly lower than 5%/yr and probably about what the BLS states as official inflation at ~2.5%/yr. I don't think there is *no* inflation, but I think it is very low and you haven't presented any evidence otherwise, other than some anecdotal evidence. You are the one making the unusual claim, you need to provide proof of it. Wages have been going up less than prices, but that is not the definition of "inflation." I think you are just confused about what the term means. \_ I'm kinda too busy today to look up stuff for you or talk about this more. Try googling for inflation articles. Official government inflation figures are not necessary reflective of real world inflation. Inflation also doesn't act equally on all prices and wages due to the nature of how the money supply works. You also haven't pointed out any specific error in the Ron Paul thing which I'd be interested in. Also, look up inflation in China for example. \_ Dude, I read The Economist every week. You are simply speculating. Real inflation might be a small amount more than reported inflation, but not by much, at least not over the whole economy. Ron Paul's desire to go back to the Gold Standard marks him as a total fruitcake: you lose control over your monetary policy in such a monetary regime and would kill economic growth to boot. No serious economist advocates such a regime and would kill economic growth to boot. No serious economist advocates it, only a bunch of loons. I told you that discussion is waaay to long and involved to go into as an aside, but since you asked... \_ Our monetary policy was primarily used to allow massive government debt and price bubbles. I fail to see how the current situation is good in the long run. Consumer debt is also the highest ever. The US economy grew just fine before the current system. I also don't accept the "no serious expert" line of reasoning. The modern system is to conduct monetary policy as if no recession can ever be allowed to occur. But the reality is that this policy is financed by endless expansion of debt and inflation. Instead of natural corrective recessions we are building up to some kind of major crisis. It's like over-aggressive fire prevention policy that ends up creating a giant inferno when the forest gets too dry. \_ Gloom and doomers are always with us. We used to have much worse downturns, like the Great Depression, the Panic of 1983 and the Panic of 1837, before we went off the Gold Standard. Only people with a serious misunderstanding of history and economics like Ron Paul want to bring back the "good ole days" of 20%+ unemployment. \_ The gold standard didn't cause the great depression. It was irresponsible fiscal policy. The central bank still has a lot of power to affect money supply with a gold standard. Prior to the Great Depression in the 20's the Fed allowed credit to grow beyond what could be supported by reserves, much like the mortgage crisis today. Result was the the stock price bubble. When that crashed, stock price bubble. When that crashed, it also failed to act. The UK left the gold standard in 1931, but it had already been abandoned in WWI. The conditions leading to the great depression and how it was dealt with can't be chalked up to the use of the gold standard. Has any candidate taken a stance for the open buying and selling of political favors? \_ Open? Sure. Behind closed doors in smokey rooms? Not a chance. \_ I'm not sure you parsed my question properly. \_ Uhm, maybe not. \_ Clinton takes a lot of lobbyist money. Edwards does not. \_ I don't particularly like Clinton so I'm focusing on Obama vs. Edwards. I'm personally a conservative-leaning independent. Obama seems to be in a better position to beat Hillary in the primary. Have you considered that in your electability calculations? \_ I don't have any particular reason to dislike Obama and I actually think he is a pretty swell guy. I think he is less likely to win in Nov, but I would certainly vote for him against any GOP candidate I can imagine. -Edwards' supporter \_ I think that Edwards has a better chance in the general election, but I would gladly vote for either Edwards or Obama. -ES It seems to me that Obama has done more in this area than Edwards. Obama had the wisdom not to authorize the Iraq war in the first place. Free trade is a mostly meaningless term to me. I support it on textbook principle but the real world isn't so simple. \_ Obama didn't vote on the Iraq War as he was in the Illinois State Senate at the time, I believe. \_ Yeah. He spoke out against it in 2002 though: http://tinyurl.com/3djwm5 (barackobama.com) \_ "By contrast, I can't find a single example of any reporter or commentator on the major networks or news outlets referring to the Gallup poll at all, with the lone exception of UPI." Wait, I thought UPI was the untrustworthy one with no original reporting? \_ The Zogby poll was an internet poll? Was the number 1 canidate Ron Paul? |
2007/11/20-26 [Finance, Finance/Investment] UID:48669 Activity:nil |
11/20 Sowell explains why most income disparity statistics are bunk. http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/sowell112007.php3 \_ If by "explains" you means waves his arms wildly and says absoultly nothing, then yes. \_ He is confusing income disparity with class mobility. \_ Classes aren't mentioned. -not op \_ Just because he didn't use the word, doesn't mean that is not what he was referring to. What do you call all his dicussion about people moving from one tax bracket to another? \_ He's talking about income mobility, not class mobility. -pp \_ Explain what the difference is, please. \_ still waiting for an answer here.. not that I really expected a coherent one from a guy who read this expected a coherent one from a guy who reads this kind of crap, but still... |
2007/11/19-26 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush, Finance/Investment] UID:48662 Activity:nil |
11/19 Are all charities "equivalent"? If I donate $100,000 to the Metropolitan Opera House to encourage aspiring young musicians most who will never make it in their lifetime, will I be more/less impactful than donating $100,000 to help the poor in Africa? \_ That depends on who you ask. A libertarian will say both are equivalent as there's no moral judgements on people. A socialist will think you're a total asshole. A capitalist will point out that you're an idiot for not donating to an organization that will somehow benefit you [in]directly. \_ Is this a troll? If not, your best bang/buck on charity is probably subsidizing childhood immunizations. \_ unless you're against over-population \_ When you find your humanity again, feel free to join the rest of the human race. \_ When you stop making assumptions about people because you mis-interpreted a comment, feel free to join the rest of literate adults. \_ I'm too lazy to think about these issues. So when I want to donate, I just donate to the American Red Cross, and then close my eyes and let them do whatever they want with the money. \_ What sort of impact do you want your donation to have? If you find helping aspiring musicians more important than helping the poor in Africa, then that is more impactful. As far as Africa goes, the best thing the West can do for them is stop flooding the place with freebies. How does anyone expect a local economy to grow in any place that gets free throw aways of everything from the West? Who would buy shoes from the local shoe maker when the US/UN/EU is giving them away free down the street? \- for an unbelievable story, see: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/24/national/24pickens.html --psb |
2007/11/14-17 [Finance/Investment] UID:48634 Activity:nil |
11/14 Is it acceptable to think of Market Cap as "How much investors have put up in the stock?" \_ No. |
2007/11/12-16 [Finance/Investment] UID:48606 Activity:nil |
11/12 So do I need to worry about the money in my E*Trade account? \_ What's wrong with ETrade? \_ Fall down, go boom. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=etfc \_ If your money in your E*Trade account is on E*Trade stocks or E*Trade mutual funds, yes. Otherwise, probably no. \_ If your money in your E*Trade account is investment on E*Trade, yes. Otherwise, probably no, because SIPC backs it up. \_ How much does SIPC insure? |
2007/11/11-15 [Finance/Investment] UID:48604 Activity:nil Cat_by:ausman |
11/11 The Nikkei 225 is taking a beating. Save us Ben Bernanke, you're our only hope! \_ bah. an automobile has over 10000 components and Bernake is just one little gear. \_ bah. An engine has over 1000 components, and Bernake is just one component out of many. \_ I think he's more like the nut behind the wheel. \_ What is Ben supposed to do for a foreign stock market? |
2007/11/7-14 [Finance/Investment] UID:48568 Activity:low |
11/7 Poll: Do you think corporate chief executive kick-backs, benefits, and packages should be more closely watched and/or regulated for better accountability to the small time, long tail share-holders, or do you think it is fine the way it is? Mark D if you're a Democrat, R if you're a Republican, L if you're a libertarian... Regulation: D Free-Market: \_ The phrasing of this is so stupidly biased as to be useless. Also, there's kind of a wide range between regulation and no regulation whatsoever (which seems to be what you mean by 'Free-Market'). Also: who cares? -dans \_ I think we should regulate the movie and sports industries to insure that no actor, director, sports star, etc. gets an unfair wage. Social Justice! \_ I just want a multi hundred million kiss off package for destroying a company. Where's that option on the poll? \_ If you want to see the Free Market in action, go down to Baja for a couple of days. The Haves have lovely hotels and license to do whatever they want. The Have Nots are pimping their sisters in order to get into the Have category. And there's trash and sewage everywhere. \_ Yes, because Mexico's economy is the closest example to a free market economy in the world. \_ What is the best example? Congo? \_ That's more of a plutocracy. Or criminalocracy. |
2007/11/2-4 [Finance/Investment] UID:48523 Activity:kinda low |
11/2 Who will hit $1000 first, GOOG or gold? \_ Interesting question. I would guess GOOG just because stock prices are more elastic than metals prices. But I think it depends on the state of the economy. If the economy falters and the Fed cuts rates a few more times, you could see the stock market take a correction and gold shoot up. If the economy keeps moving I'd expect the gold spike to diminish. -tom \_ You are pushing it using "elastic" here. Maybe varaiance. \_ Irrationality drives up prices, and GOOG attracts as many irrational investors as did dot-com stocks. So my bet will be GOOG based on the history of irrationality (e.g. it can't possibly happen, people are idiots, ergo, it will happen) \_ Gold also attracts a lot of irrational investors. \_ The radio told me it can only go up. I shorted GOOG so I could buy gold. \_ Oil. |
2007/11/1-2 [Finance/Investment] UID:48508 Activity:nil |
11/1 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/01/business/01citi-web.html C with potential $30bn capital shortfall. Heads of structured credit and CDO groups fired. Tangible capital ratio at 2.8%. Outlook poor as MBS/CDO positions deteriorate. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pension31oct31,1,699259,full.story C takes over $400-million pension fund |
2007/10/31-11/2 [Finance/Investment] UID:48501 Activity:nil |
10/31 http://www.markit.com/information/products/abx.html Yay, AA-rated securities rated 48 cents on the dollar! \_ Housing, it only goes up! \_ Why didn't anyone warn us that this would happen? \_ ObSwamiSux |
2007/10/31-11/2 [Finance/Investment] UID:48497 Activity:kinda low |
10/31 Bought a bunch of GOOG at ~$450. Sold 1/2 at around $650. I'm thinking of dumping 1/2 again (1/4 of original). What do you guys think? Are you holding on or what? \_ I bought at $300 and sold at $550, but only because my wife wanted a kitchen remodel. In general, I think buy and hold is the best solution, though I will often do as you do and sell half after a significant runup. If I was still holding GOOG, I would have sold half at $600 and be keeping the rest. \_ Ok so let's say you sold 1/2 at $600, how much higher would it have to be before you decided to sell another 1/2? \_ I use trailing stops, so it would have to hit my stop. I would never sell a stock just because it has gone up "too much." I have learned the hard way that this is a bad idea. In a stock that had gone up that much, my trailing stock would be waaay back there, like 25% below where it is now. Ideally, I would want to hold it until retirement. I can give you a list of stocks that I am currently holding that have gone up 200% or more that I will probably never sell. I can also give you a list of stocks that I sold too soon because I thought they had already gone up "enough." \_ I thought about this some more and decided that my best advice is for you is to come up with some guidelines for yourself that determine when you should buy and sell (before you buy) and stick to those rules. Change the rules on the basis of what you learn over time. You first need to decide why you are investing and if the answer is just "try to make money fast" then the stockmarket is possibly not the right venue for that. \_ I bought at $450 and am holding pending a significant change in the business or the environment. -tom \_ Of course, the problem here is if there is a significant change, all the brokers will be able to sell faster than you and the price will drop before you can sell. I've read that you get within 20% of what you think the max should be you're doing great \_ I'm not trying to time the market; I'm staying invested in a company with good revenues, earnings, and growth potential. You are correct that if Google misses significantly on earnings, the stock will go down. 20% would be a drop of 140 points; I'm pretty sure I would manage to sell if there were a fundamental change, before Google drops 140 points. -tom \_ I'm generally a buy and hold guy, but this is an unusual case. It really depends on what you think. Are you a "The sky is the limit" GOOG guy, or are you a "Tech Bubble 2.0" guy? If you're the former, hold on. If you're the latter, sell it all and count your money. It's already been a great investment, I think you could sell with out regret. But I'm a "Tech Bubble 2.0" guy. \_ One thing about "Tech Bubble 2.0"; it may be. But I own AMZN from Tech Bubble 1.0, and it's up 171%. Good companies will provide good returns. -tom \_ but there is a distinction between a good company and a good stock. GOOG is beginning to act like IOMG. -daveh \_ I see no parallel at all between Google and Iomega. What are you comparing? -tom \_ http://www.csua.org/u/jvi (Seeking Alpha) GOOG now fifth largest company by market cap. But it would have to be $1500/share to be larger than XOM... Go GOOG Go! |
2007/10/31-11/2 [Finance/Investment] UID:48495 Activity:nil |
10/31 Can someone please explain to me why the Fed is about to cut rates again when: 1) The dow is only slightly off it's all time high. 2) Oil is at or above $90. 3) The dollar is going off a cliff. 4) GDP grew 3.9% in the 3rd quarter. 5) P&G and Colgate are announcing big price increases. \_ Credit is very tight right now. They can increase the money supply by printing dollars, or decreasing rates. I personally hope they keep it tight until all the bad loans fall out. \_ I agree, flush out all the bad apples, start with a clean slate \_ Unemployment is up, GDP growth over the last year has been 1.8%, which is well below what the economy should be able to perform, and "core" inflation is low. The weak dollar might even be thought to be a positive, because it is contributing to economic growth and helping to solve the trade deficit. Overall, I think the Fed is worried about a recession (which they should be, imo). \_ ... and, USG thinks there won't be significant capital flight even with continued rate cuts and hits on the dollar--that U.S. markets will be perceived as a deteriorating, but performing investment. USG will slow rate cuts / tighten if this becomes less true. |
2007/10/26-29 [Science/GlobalWarming, Finance/Investment] UID:48456 Activity:nil |
10/26 Dear oil man, which oil stocks are good to buy now? Thanks. \_ DUG \_ I'd avoid oil stocks because the Dems are going to win 2008 and with them will come socialist programs and strict energy regulations. \_ IXC is a safe bet, but I am holding XOM, BP and CVX. Any big major is probably a good bet. |
2007/10/26-29 [Finance/Investment] UID:48452 Activity:low |
10/26 http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2523981920071025 Insider trading "appears to be rampant" in finance industry, says SEC enforcement director \_ The Invisble Hand will take care of this. \_ Jail works better. |
2007/10/21-24 [Industry/Startup, Finance/Investment] UID:48403 Activity:kinda low |
10/20 If company X has open trading window for their employees tomorrow and stock X has been as high as ever, then traditionally, would their employees most likely start dumping stock X, making a good time for bozos like us to short X? \_ When bozos short stocks they're usually wrong. Short a stock because you don't believe in the company, not because you think you see some technical factor. -tom \_ You can totally believe in a company and yet it is too expensive. \_ That is usually a bad candidate for a short. \_ Exactly. Do you really think you can predict the moment at which the market is going to turn? Here's a rule of thumb for you: Don't short good companies. There are plenty of bad companies out there to short, if that's what you want to do. -tom \_ Bad companies are usually valued like they should be. Good/bad shouldn't enter into it. Just valuation. Valuation is not a "technical factor". \_ Or don't believe in the sector, like housing stocks at the end of the housing boom. \_ Good point here. Plenty of good companies tank if their sector tanks. |
2007/10/19-24 [Science/Disaster, Finance/Investment] UID:48382 Activity:nil |
10/19 "Oil jumps over $90 a barrel" http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071019/bs_ft/fto101920070302459290 \_ Bushonomics. \_ Reaganomics. \_ Dogonomics. |
2007/10/11-15 [Finance/Investment] UID:48290 Activity:nil |
10/11 wtf is happening with the Dow index? \_ It is going up and down as it always has been. What about it? \_ cliff \_ What about it? \_ wtf is happening \_ It is going up and down as it always has been. What about it? \_ stack out of memory \_ Stock up on gold and ammo! Head for the hills! \_ norm |
2007/9/20-22 [Finance/Investment] UID:48132 Activity:kinda low |
9/20 So, with the dollar tanking where should I put my money to weather the comming storm? \_ 'In the longer term, the U.S. dollar will have to rebound at some point, said Dustin Reid, senior foreign exchange strategist at ABN AMRO in Chicago. "It can't continue into oblivion forever."' -- http://csua.org/u/jk0 (Reuters) \_ You are too late. Dollar has already tanked. Buy low, sell high. \_ Jim Cramer be damned, I suspect that the tankage has farther to go, and that it's not too late. So, if you knew the dollar was going to continue to tank, what (besides foreign currencies directly) would you invest in? \_ Stocks and mutual funds of foreign companies whose currency will do well against the dollar. Truthfully, though, these have outperformed and I think you are too late. But if you think you are not late to the party that everyone else has been at for years then, yeah. \_ Jim Cramer says you are not too late. the stock market is going to 14,500 by end of year. buy-buy-buy! \_ obWhyDoYouHateAmerica? \_ I put my money into both American and foreign investments. Why place your bets for/against a single currency? You wouldn't put all your money into a single stock. \_ while i dont disagree with you, the analogy of single currency and single stock misses something slightly when the single currency is the dollar and you are long in the dollar. \_ Megacap companies that make most of their profits overseas are probably a good bet. |
2007/9/18-22 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:48103 Activity:low |
9/18 So, the lesson of the fed rate cut is: borrow as much as you can, get way over your head, make risky investments as well. make big bucks on the way up. if you get into trouble, the Fed will bail you out. if you're a saver you're a sucker... your life savings just took a hit through dollar devaluation. \_ If you are a saver you ALWAYS take a hit through dollar devaluation \_ I've been busy the last few days... I thought they were going to let everyone bite it. What sort of bailout did the Fed do? \- "If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe your bank a million pounds, it has." --jmk BTW, this is an example of why taxes should be progressive. \_ It's amusing that you jump on progressive taxation to remedy this particular problem rather than, you know, eliminating bailouts. -- ilyas \- progressive taxation isnt a solution to this. this is an illustration of the fallacy of some of the "how should we split the dinner bill" type bogus analogies. \_ The best argument for progressive taxation I know is that marginal benefit increases exponentially, but hedonic value increases logarithmically (if that), for money. -- ilyas \_ Investors and risk takers will always do better than nervous nellies. You would rather the whole economy suffered a recession? \_ They're not taking risks if the government bails them out. And considering that the only reason the economy is in danger of suffering a recession is *because* of this kind of risk taking, it shouldn't be encouraged. -tom \_ I think you'd have a hard time substantiating your last sentence. \_ Investors, probably, risk takers? That's ridiculous. The kind of fevered speculation that goes on in these "booms" is not sound business and should not be encouraged. But unless those who do this feel pain, it won't stop. And it does endanger the economy. The "lemming" mentality should not provide safety from stupidity. \_ Yeah, I don't approve of fevered speculation and lemming mentality either. Feel better? |
2007/9/12 [Finance/Investment] UID:48041 Activity:very high |
9/12 REDMOND, Wash., and Santa Clara, Calif.  Sept. 12, 2007  Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq “MSFTâ€Â) and Sun Microsystems Inc. (Nasdaq “JAVAâ€Â) today announced that Sun has signed on as a Windows Server® OEM. \_ If you're gonna cut and paste, please get rid of funky chars. It is pretty annoying. \_ works for me. turn on UNICODE. |
2007/9/11-13 [Finance/Investment, Reference/RealEstate] UID:48011 Activity:nil |
9/11 http://www.csua.org/u/jhl "I'm leaving him," she said. "He's grouchy all the time. I want a guy who's rich and cheerful all day and all night. Why should I have to suffer because his business is bad?" Are any of you losing wives over the whole housing bubble popping? \_ Hi, I'm Ben Stein and watch me try and claim that the housing bubble is going to turn around any day now, but do so in a way that if it doesn't I can pretend I wasn't saying that. God damn that man is such a wanker. \- "I won the John Bates Clark Medal. You, sir, are a game show host." ... BEEN STEIN is not just a pud, but may actually be semi-insane. This is well worth reading: http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2005/06/a_missing_piece.html \_ Hi, I'm a motd troll. Watch me make fun of an article I haven't read, poorly. Did I fool you? \_ Dude, in that article he tries to play it both ways so bad it isn't even funny. \_ "Six years." \_ Why do you take it so seriously? It's obviously not a "here are my weighty predictions" article. It's just some dumb fluff piece. \_ Look, it's just a dumb fluff piece so I can take both positions. See, just a dumb fluff piece. Of course after everything goes down I can point to the parts that were right and forget all the fluffyness. If things go totally haywire and neither X nor Y happen I can just shrug and say it was a dumb fluff piece. This is exactly why I think The Daily Show shouldn't get a pass for being on Comedy Central. \_ Uh, when have people pointed to the Daily Show in a serious way? I don't see how anyone could point to this article here in a serious way either. \- Jon Stewart doesnt claim to be a lawyer && economist && journalist && philosopher, seek affiliation with think tanks which lobby to change public policy etc. BSTEIN allegedly was #1 in his class at yale law, so ostenisibly he at some point was a smart guy. but he says so many whack things, that why i think you need some theory ot explain his brain snapping or being disingenuous etc [like ann coulter clearly says some things so she becomes a media story-> free advertising]. |
2007/9/7 [Politics/Foreign/Asia/China, Finance/Investment] UID:47948 Activity:high 66%like:47941 |
9/7 I can repost just as much as you can delete. Is China Quietly Dumping US Securities? http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1891633/posts |
2007/9/7 [Politics/Foreign/Asia/China, Finance/Investment] UID:47941 Activity:nil 66%like:47948 |
9/7 Is China Quietly Dumping US Securities? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/05/bcnchina105.xml |
2007/9/7-10 [Finance/Investment] UID:47932 Activity:low |
9/7 You know how they say stocks always outperform everything else over 30 years? We may now be entering that period where it underperforms for several years. \_ What will it underperform? Real estate? \_ bonds, CDs - assuming you bought them three months ago \_ Heck, if I can go back in time, why not just buy winning lottery tickets? \_ hey, you asked me about historical performance \_ "...will it..." What part of that sentence is past tense? \_ okay fine. why don't we just say CDs may outperform stocks from the present time. \_ They might, but I doubt it. What do you think? I am about 20% in muni bonds and 5% in CDs, but the rest is in the market. \_ The bond market is not looking too good right now. All analysts say blue chips are the place to be. They are historically cheap. \_ is it time yet to buy buy buy? \_ Not as good as a year ago (when they were even cheaper) but still good, yes. \_ That is what I think, too. -pp \_ You can make more money in the slave trade. Just join the UN. |
2007/8/24-27 [Finance/Investment] UID:47742 Activity:low |
8/24 Home Sales Rise, Factory Orders Up http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070824/economy.html?.v=19 \_ Bubble! I read it on the motd. \_ Must be true. |
2007/8/21-23 [Finance/Investment, Reference/RealEstate] UID:47695 Activity:moderate |
8/21 Still believe there is no housing bubble? http://www.csua.org/u/jdm "The entire Central Valley of California(and, in fact, the entire State, with a very few exceptions) is in the worst real estate downturn in my 30+ year career. THERE, I'VE SAID IT!" \_ And she doesn't have an agenda does she? \_ If there's anyone who doesn't believe there's a housing bubble, please post here and sign it so we can laugh at you. -dans \_ I believe this woman has pretty little credability. \_ While I agree with you on this point, I still think folks who believes there is no housing bubble should post their names on the motd so we can laugh at them. -dans \_ I never said there was no bubble, I just think this woman is a moron who is trying to make money off of fear. \_ I never claimed you did. -dans \_ I don't recall any sodan ever denying there was a housing bubble - just ridicule about timing, poor logic, hyperbole, etc. \_ What does "housing bubble" mean? What are you predicting as a result of this supposed housing bubble? \_ did you have sexual relations with that woman, Ms. Lewinsky? \_ Who here said there was no housing bubble? Prices go up, prices go down. Things change over time. Sometimes they change fast. This is how the business cycle works. And I still don't understand why you or anyone else would be hoping and praying or gloating over a potential fall in housing pricing. All that means is the whole economy gets dragged down, interest rates rise, etc, and you still won't be able to buy a house. |
2007/8/16-20 [Finance/Investment] UID:47627 Activity:kinda low |
8/16 We have a correction! Dow is now 10% below the 14K high. \_ no we don't \_ The finance industry says it's the technical definition of \_ Wall Street says it meets the technical definition of a correction. \_ it is a correction if you say the 10% can be calculated off the low value for the day it isn't if you say the 10% should be calculated off market closes i'm with the latter camp \_ <cough> |
2007/8/15-20 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:47618 Activity:nil |
8/14 THERE IS NO HOUSING BUBBLE! http://blogs.ft.com/wolfforum/2007/08/fear-makes-a-we.html |
2007/8/15-17 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:47616 Activity:nil |
8/15 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alpGocvOGiDM Countrywide Financial selling 30-day bonds at 12.5% Overnight bonds at 6 to 6.5% |
2007/8/10-13 [Finance/Investment, Finance/Banking] UID:47579 Activity:nil |
8/10 http://tinyurl.com/2vz45a (iht.com) Fed accepts MBS bonds, kicking back $35 billion in cash to banks in short-term loans, delaying mark-to-market valuations on the bonds (encouraging mark-to-Fed accounting schemes). \_ http://www.csua.org/u/jbd (Economist's View) That is not really an accurate summary of what really happened. The MBS were all Agency backed and therefore gov't guaranteed in the first place. Secondly, they did not buy them, they accepted them as collatoral for a very short term (72 hour) loan. More discussion about it here: http://www.csua.org/u/jbe (I know you don't like this blog, but unless you can find a better source of economic explaination, too bad emarkp) -ausman |
2007/8/10-13 [Finance/Investment] UID:47576 Activity:nil |
8/9 http://news.search.yahoo.com/news/search?p=tuchman&c=news_photos http://www.stoweboyd.com/ambivalence/2007/07/peter-tuchman.html Why is this guy always in photos whenever the market drops? \_ He pulls off the "I am in hell" look pretty well. |
2007/8/10-13 [Finance/Investment, Industry/Startup] UID:47572 Activity:nil |
8/9 http://tinyurl.com/24qedb (AP) http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN0927223520070810?rpc=44 Countrywide Financial CEO exercises options and sells Wed at peak Press release Thursday after market close causes 13% drop in stock |
2007/8/4-6 [Finance, Finance/Investment] UID:47534 Activity:nil |
8/4 It's not easy being a mere single digit millionaire: http://www.csua.org/u/j9u \_ Obviously, we need to cut more tax. -Conservative \_ I read that in the paper. Bunch of fucking whiners. \_ This guy is an idiot. His house is paid and he has $2M. Maybe I'd keep working if I was 31, but at 51 he needs to do something he likes. If work is what he likes then fine, but then admit that and don't complain about 12 hour days. The article is full of suckers, which I think is the point. If the guy cannot afford Hillsborough then maybe he should sell. There's no honor in going bankrupt living a life you cannot afford just because you were once worth $50M 10 years ago. |
2007/8/3-22 [Finance/Investment] UID:47525 Activity:nil |
8/3 http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070803/bearstearns_markets.html?.v=1 "Bond market turmoil sending investors fleeing from risk may be a worse predicament than the 1980s stock market fall and Internet bubble burst, Bear Stearns Chief Financial Officer Sam Molinaro said on Friday." ... well that's not a good headline \_ It's a cyclical market! Lalalalala! \_ Housing prices are going to crater in 2005! Lalalalala! \_ Markets are cyclical. This is news to you? Maybe Sam is entirely right. Things drop. You believe they'll stay that way forever? Do you *want* them to stay that way? I don't see the reason for your snarkiness and sarcasm on such a sky-is-blue issue. |
2007/7/31 [Finance/Investment] UID:47489 Activity:nil |
7/31 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETWII&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= Why does today's Taiwan stock market index look like this? I thought exchanges only halted trading on significant dips, but it looks like they stopped trading from 10:15am - 12:45pm when it was trending up. |
2007/7/31-8/3 [Finance/Investment] UID:47474 Activity:nil |
7/31 Why is everyone freaking out about Murdoch buying the WSJ? Are they afraid it's going to become a rightwing corporate mouthpiece (lol) \_ Yeah, actually I am. The WSJ NEWS reporting is excellent. the WSJ EDITORIAL PAGES are a bunch of 100 percent free market loons. It's an easy distinction. \_ WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION! DUBYA EMM DEEEES!!!! |
2007/7/26 [Finance/Investment] UID:47428 Activity:nil |
7/26 help, the stock market is falling, and it can't get up! \_ is it not at near historic highs? |
2007/7/25-29 [Finance, Finance/Investment] UID:47424 Activity:kinda low |
7/25 One way to close the gap between the rich and the poor: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19958752/site/newsweek \ "The LAPD’s West Division has put a task force of 10-plus detectives on the case; plainclothes patrols have joined the chase." I wonder how many detectives Oakland police would put on the case if this was happening at, say, Fruitvale? \_ Oakland doesn't have enough officers, so probably no more than usual. Oakland also has an artificial shortage of officers, since they all work 4 10 hour shifts, giving them 3 day weekends. So on day 5 they get over time. Oakland also has an even more artificial shortage of officers, since plenty of Oakland cops fill internal jobs that at other depts, are filled by non cops. The Oakland PD union should be destroyed. I'm sure there are good people in the oakland pd but too many of them are fucking stupid or are just riding that cushy salary until they retire. \_ "Los Angeles Police Department detectives think the crew has struck more than 50 times since late last fall." If the same neighborhood in Fruitvale has been struck more than 50 times by the same crew, I think Oakland PD would assign quite a few people on the case, if not 10-plus. \_ Go to http://gismaps.oaklandnet.com/crimewatch. Search for burglaries within 1 mile of Fruitvale and International within the past 90 days. -tom \_ Why don't these super-rich people buy security cameras with higher resolution? That video screenshot is next to useless. \_ Resolution is useless if there's no light to be captured. Infrared cameras will help, though. \_ Or combination of motion sensor light and cameras. |
2007/7/23-26 [Finance/Investment, Finance] UID:47389 Activity:kinda low |
7/23 Large majorities of people in the US and in Europe want higher taxation for the rich, and view globalization as a negative force. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2a735dd0-3873-11dc-bca9-0000779fd2ac.html http://video.ft.com/ukdailyvideo/?clipid=1359_FT0339 \_ One problem is defining what "rich" means. \_ That's easy, I'm pretty sure the standard everyone in the survey was using was "richer than me." \_ Easily done: Income > $1,000,000 per year. \_ "But but but that is COMMUNISM!!! Time to lobby to make sure this never happens." -multi-millionaire \_ Unfortunately, politicians define "rich" as between $75K and $200K / yr. depending on who is asking the question. \_ Sure, and they're wrong. We all know that millionaires are rich, since they're the only ones who can afford a house the SFBA. Kidding aside, aggressive prosecution under existing laws and repeal of the wealthy-subsidies passed under the Bush Admin would put us back into a surplus. \_ Yes but the economy will halt because there will be no more wealth to trickle down to the poor and everyone will suffer. -Reagan #12523121 fan \_ Mr. Reagan fan, why does trickle down smell like something out of an R. Kelly home movie? |
2007/7/14-16 [Finance/Investment] UID:47290 Activity:nil |
7/13 Lefty publication discusses real unemployment rate: http://www.csua.org/u/j56 (Wall Street Journal) |
2007/7/13-15 [Finance/Investment] UID:47288 Activity:nil |
7/13 screw you gwbush \_ Damn this economy! \_ Nevermind that debt! (national or consumer or trade deficit) |
2007/7/13-16 [Science/Electric, Finance/Investment] UID:47286 Activity:nil |
7/13 Okay, someone mentioned this a week ago, so I have to ask. How many of you are millionaires? Bill Gates: millionaire: .. not a millionaire, but on my way: . \_ if I pass the july bar :-) f**k you: Gentlemen do not discuss money or sex: . \_ Defined how? \_ I think it's current value of all your assets. This includes current market value of your house minus remaining principle in your mortgage, current dollar amount in your 401(k), current market value of your stocks, money in your saving account, plus current market value of your car, TV, stereo, porn magazine collection, etc. The fact that you'll have to pay tax if you sell your house, cash out your 401(k), etc. is irrelevant. -- !OP \_ Does it count if you+spouse > $1M, or do you only count half of the house? \_ I would count my spouse, but it is up to you... |
2007/6/25-28 [Reference/Tax, Finance/Investment] UID:47055 Activity:moderate |
6/25 http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/06/25/charitable.giving.ap/index.html Americans are very generous. \- that is a really lousy article. it's a very fair criticism that comparisons of just things like foreign aid from the govt isnt fair to the US where there is larger private sector donating, it is equally true you have to consider the lower taxes here, and some other issues relating to tax policy ... if somebody donates a huge amount of money to avoid taxes, it needs to be thought of a little differently [read about the history of HHMI]. this is another case of an article where it's unclear the facts add up to the conclusion suggested [as the OP writes, "americans are very generous"]. what should have been the biggest piece of news in there is how much "charity" is sucked up by religious orgs. certainly a lot of this goes to good ends like church run hospitals [10-20% of community hospitals in the US are Catholic church operations] but a lot relig donations are sort of parochial, so to speak. also the large fraction of the donations going elite educational and \_ Parta, seriously, I could care less about the homeless people who are causing my property to depreciate. However, I've donated hundreds of dollars to Classical 102.1 KDFC. Am I an elitist? Do you hate me? \- no, i just think there is a difference say volunteering at your kids school and say doing a doctors without borders kind of thing. obviously i am not saying volunteering at your kids school is bad, but a different phenomena is going on. medical establishments and elite cultural orgs isnt really consistent with the "giving to the poor" conception of charity. [and reglig+elite educ/medica/culture is something like \_ Au contraire, mon frere! Going back well into early Europe, pretty much *every* artist, 'doctor', 'scientist', and other 'elite' was only able to produce or research because they had some rich benefactor. You think all that art was produced on the government dole? Or by selling to 'The People' in the market square? \- no, i'm generally opposed to public funding of the arts. btw you also need to acknowledge the govt had a role via their decision to enforce IP. to get middle class novelists for example, you need to have copyright enforced. 60-70% of the total, i believe]. at least some amount of this number is no doubt more of a testiment to the creativity of tax profressionals here rather than a reflection on inherent generosity. note that there have been some studies looking at attitudes changing toward in attitudes toward social welfare as there is more mixing of population groups, so the benefits are less likely to go toward "people like me", e.g. some europeans are beginning to reconsider the high level of the social safety net in the face of high levels of brown immigration. \_ Wow, partha, you are a real shithead. The issue of 'optimal giving' (e.g., if I want to go good, and I am willing to think about it, where should my money go) is completely orthogonal to 'generosity.' I wouldn't give money to most 'conventional charities' you probably wouldn't have a problem with, like the Red Cross because I think they are a very inefficient use of my money. The vast majority of people have a 'generosity impulse', but they aren't really willing to think very hard about their money and true causes of problems in the world. It's true that the results they achieve with their money aren't as good as they could be, but it sort of seems like you are calling into question the morality of their act, which is in very poor form. I am curious if, parallel to you taking a dump on the possible motives of Americans who give you might also have a spirited defense of the rest of the world (which gives a lot less). I was also most amused by the importance you place on historical conceptions of charity as 'alms for the poor.' I wonder if you will have moral objections to intentionally improving outcomes by 'counterintuitive means' (or objections to calling such things 'charity.') -- ilyas objections to calling such things 'charity.') Sometimes Franklin's view is more appropriate than Mother Theresa's. -- ilyas \_ I believe he already addressed the "citizens of other places don't give as much" when he said their taxes are higher which implies they give through their government so are morally excused from giving personally. Anyway, we know all rich people are automatically evil oppressors so it doesn't matter if they give to charity or not. They must be doing it for evil and selfish reasons. \- if i had to summarize my main point: donating $500m in paintings to a museum != donating to "help people". lumping them together clouds the statistics. as i said, the facts dont add up to the conclusions. we can probably say things like "one reason the higher educ institutions are so good here is there sucess getting private donations". by no means would i "dump" on america by saying "but that's only because of lousy public funding it is necessary." although things like tax policy has consequences [like what is the per capita spending at saratoga high school vs. an east sj high school etc]. BTW, i think "american generosity" gets the short shrift by not considering the "uncaptured" returns from medical research [antibiotics, vaccines etc], and agricultural reasearch ["green revolution"], but to think about this issue sophisticatedly, there are offsetting negatives as well. \_ Charity is ineffective because determining effects is hard. I wouldn't even go so far as to say donating to a museum isn't 'helping' -- I just don't understand what 'helps' well enough. I do know a lot of african charity is extremely counterproductive. -- ilyas \_ Some software is counterproductive. Therefore, we should stop using software. \_ Where did you get the idea that I am claiming charity is a bad thing or should be stopped? Did you even read my other post? If there's a normative undercurrent to what I am saying at all, it's that what people should be concentrating on isn't SPENDING but understanding effects, and understanding how complex systems evolve. In some sense donating is easy, but your conscience shouldn't rest just because you donated to something recently. -- ilyas |
2007/5/9-14 [Finance/Investment] UID:46576 Activity:nil |
5/9 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f2279236-fe5a-11db-bdc7-000b5df10621.html Daily trading volume of China's two major stock exchanges at $5 billion six months ago, $16 billion two months ago, and $49 billion today -- exceeding Japan, the UK, and second only to the U.S. \_ China doesn't have the equivilent of the SEC. \_ not disagreeing, but China doesn't have day trading or hedge funds (the latter contributing at least 25% of U.S. volume any given day). \_ Yes they do. It's called The Invisible Hand. \_ ka-boom! \_ Plotting the curve shows China should meltdown in about 5-6 weeks. \_ What curve? |
2007/5/7 [Finance/Investment] UID:46551 Activity:nil 72%like:46548 |
5/7 Murdoch's global plan for WSJ http://www.newyorkbusiness.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070506/FREE/70505027&SearchID=73280340339971 |
2007/5/7-9 [Finance/Investment] UID:46548 Activity:nil 72%like:46551 |
5/7 Murdoch's global plan for WSJ http://urltea.com/idh (newyorkbusiness.com) |
2007/5/7-9 [Finance/Investment] UID:46539 Activity:nil |
5/7 http://www.thestreet.com/_realtime/funds/fundmorning/10354751.html Bear fund manager predicts Dow will fall "at least 50% ... I think this is a topping pattern. We think it's probably three to six months away" Fund hoards gold and shorts the market, has miniscule 0.55% and 0.60% 1-yr and 3-yr annualized returns. \_ Uh, if he is right, what should we do? CDs? MM? ING/X Direct? \_ You should diversify regardless of his predictions. Put some in bonds, CDs, index funds, metals, energy, real estate, and dot coms. I'd bet energy would be a big gain in the next few decades or so. \_ Buy his fund, of course! Aside from that, can you get Euro CDs? If the dollar tanks US CDs might not be a good idea. \_ Quick! Short GOOG NOW! |
2007/5/1-4 [Finance/Investment] UID:46499 Activity:nil |
5/1 Virgin Air to show Loose Change 2 on inflight movie. \_ Why is this documentary called Loose Change 2 while there is a comedy called Loose Change? |
2007/5/1-4 [Finance/Investment] UID:46494 Activity:nil |
5/1 Father of Fox Republican News to by Dow Jones. HEIL MURDOCK!!! http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,269420,00.html |
2007/4/27-5/1 [Finance/Investment] UID:46468 Activity:low |
4/2 http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/070427/10353243.html Investor Jeremy Grantham says we are now experiencing the first worldwide bubble in history -- all asset classes are inflated. "My colleagues suggest that this global bubble has not yet had this phase [an "exponential phase" just prior to the falloff] and perhaps they are right. ... In which case, pessimists or conservatives will take considerably more pain." \_ Then again, we could just be entering a period of long term low interest rates, which would make fixed income producing assets worth more. During the middle of the Pax Romana, real interest rates were about 2% and during the Victorian Era in England, worth more. During the middle of the Pax Romana, interest rates were about 4% and during the Victorian Era in England, rates were even lower. This may be a comparable time. -ausman \_ We're entering uncharted territory since never before in the history has the global economy been so interdependent and dependent on energy -- which is about to experience a major disturbance. \_ What major disturbance? Peak Oil does not qualify as a disturbance, more a slow motion train wreck. \_ "By his calculations, the only assets likely to beat inflation by any significant margin if you hold them for the next seven years are managed timber, "high-quality" U.S. stocks, and bonds." That doesn't sound like all asset classes. His idea of high quality stocks includes Home Depot, which proves he is on crack. Ignore him. |
2007/4/18-21 [Finance/Investment] UID:46365 Activity:nil |
4/18 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c= I don't get it. In the space of 1 year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange index has gone from 1400 to 3600. What gives? Doesn't the central government love stability? Does this mean 3600+ is stable? \_ first of all, Shanghai Stock Exchange, like *ALL* Asian stock exchange, is not nearly as transparent as NYSE, etc. However, recently I've attended a leading Chinese economist. He said there are couple reason why stockmarket are high - for some reason, average profit margin has increased tremedously in past 3-5 years - PE Ratio was hover around 15 back in 2005. Now, it's close to 35, which is close to NYSE average. But compare with all other Asian stock market's average P/E ratio, Shanghai is actually on the low side, which implies there are still a way to go \_ This is wrong on a number of counts: first of all, the S&P 500 P/E is 16, not 35. Secondly, the P/E of most asian markets is not over 35. In the Korean borse, it is 10, for example. I personally think that the Shanghai market is in a bubble, driven by a lack of investment opportunities for regular Chinese, but I could be wrong. - while raw material prices are on the rise (thanks to US choke on energy market), inflation is relatively in checked due to stagnant labor cost (see below) - while hourly wages has increase something like 30% in past 5 years, productivity also increase about the same amount. Much of the productivity gain (which is probably the highest in the world) is due to deregulation and market reform in conjunction of IT revolution. - China's economy is finally got out of contraction mode and start expanding. Key industries are housing and automobiles (great, here goes the Earth) \_ Uh, what? Hasn't China's economy grown by 10% or so every year for over a decade? - MarketShare/GDP was depressed back in 2005. I didn't pay much attention to this number because I have no idea what does number means Overall, the economist is relatively optimist about China economy's fundamental and therefore he personally didn't think the stock market is too high. Then again, stock market seldem reflects the fundamentals. kngharv \_ kngharv, do you agree with that economist? \_ SSEC down 4.5% today. But I get it. China is doing everything it can to moderate growth, but investors just can't get enough. -op http://tinyurl.com/2w62q8 (reuters.com) \_ SSEC down 6.5% today. Just in time! -op |
2007/4/18-20 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:46361 Activity:nil |
4/18 Free advice sought from soda financial advisors. I'm a single guy making about $120k with no debt and about $150k saved. What would be a ballpark estimate of how much house I can afford in the Bay Area. Any other major variable to consider? Thanks! \_ Um, STFW? There are mortgage payment calculators on the web. Second, do you know your own budget? How much of a payment can you afford? And remember to figure in $250/mo for utils, and monthly payments for house insurance and property tax. Not to mention a monthly expense to "buy stuff" for your house, like furniture, and don't forget house maintenace. \_ http://cgi.money.cnn.com/tools/houseafford/houseafford.html assumes 33% payment-to-income ratio for "aggressive". for san jose this comes out to a ~ $585K house. \- that calculator probably assumes dependents [children]. if you you are single, and not a cokehead, or driving "teutonic rolling stock", it's probably ok to shift toward the aggressive side, tempered by factors like job-relocation flexibility and what your beliefs are about the future of the mkt [i say beliefs, because you dont want to end up in an investment that causes you stress because it's at odds with your appetitie for risk]. there are also difficult, person-specific choices like borrowing against 401k/403b etc [how common is that for 20-30somethings? different people have very different expectations of future income from salary increase reates, inheritance etc.]. btw, i think the calcultor there has some other issues. the house price changes by exactly the same amount as the down payment. i.e. for a downpayment of $150k, the house price is exactly $150k more than $0 downpayment. but it's certainly reasonable for a ballpark [i.e. you can do better than a $350k house in the sticks but probably not a million dollar place in sf]. it's kinda funny that with those stats, buying a place in "90%" of the country is a non-issue [the land of <$350k houses]. if not sf, not palo alto, not nyc, not ... \_ Well *I* think you can go up to about $1M, but you probably can't get a bank to lend you that much. What are your current expenses? You should be able to do the math on what you can afford. People in the Bay Area have always spent more than 33% on housing. |
2007/3/28-31 [Finance/Investment] UID:46122 Activity:nil |
3/28 Why is there not a clear correlation between crude price and actual price at the pumps? Am I missing something about the very basic laws of supply and demand? \_ One theory is that if the crude price increases, it implies that the future supply is uncertain and could become quite scarce. Thus, the present stock is more valuable than the price originally paid. A immediate price increase is needed to accurate reflect this valuation. In addition, if the supply does become scarce, one must earn future profits with current stock. This requires a present increase in price. If the crude price falls, this cannot be reflected at the pump w/o taking a present loss. Current stock was obtained at a higher price. To recoup this higher purchase price, one must continue selling that stock at a higher price. Therefore, a lag is necessary. A competing theory suggests that the oil companies just like making money and have no incentive to take less of your money. \_ Produce prices in Chinatown follow the same pattern. When a storm is forecasted, produce prices go up right away; when the storm is over, produce prices stay up for a while before going back to normal. I personally believe in the "competing theory" above. \_ The prices go up suddenly because current prices reflect future value, which includes uncertainty. After the uncertainty goes away, it takes some time for competitive pressures to push the price back down. \_ There is. Anyone who tells you otherwise has an agenda. See the following chart: http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=24 http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=72 Check the box "Show Crude Oil Price". However, the demand of gasoline is very inelastic, so when demand outstrips supply, the price change is quick and dramatic. Lastly, local laws dramatically affect the price (requiring certain blends, taxes, etc.). http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_gastemperaturemap.aspx |
2007/3/27-29 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:46105 Activity:nil |
3/26 BUT....BUT.... BUT REAL ESTATE ALWAYS GOES UP!!!!! \_ Yes. It does. Over time. No one with a multi-decade investment time line ever lost money on real estate. If you bought swamp _______________________________________/ \_ The same is true of the stock market. Read a random walk down wall street. Over any 20 year time span, including one where you invest on the eve of the great depression, the stock market has averaged at least 20% annual returns after inflation. Read a random walk down wall street. -dans \_ 20% after inflation? I think not. Try more like 7%. -ausman \_ mea culpa. -dans land, that's your problem. Land ownership is the traditional way to wealth going back to the start of history. The other way is military conquest of the world but I doubt you have a personal army. \_ Is that true? I remember a time when Tokyo real estate bubbled to truly absurd values. If you bought at the wrong time I think you may have failed to beat inflation over a 30 year period. \_ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble \_ Yes, it's true. If you buy over priced swamp land you're going to get burned. Doesn't matter if the swamp land is in Florida or Tokyo. There's always more people, there's always less land. \_ I'm pretty sure you've qualified that statement so much that an equivelent statement could be made for stocks. "No one has ever lost money in a multi-decade investment in a well diversified portfolio." Is that not true as well? \_ Not equivalent--key diff is "diversified". You could easily lose money in real estate in selected markets, even long term. \_ I think that land ownership has been the traditional way to store and transfer wealth. The traditional ways to create wealth have been trade and military conquest (which is just taking someone else's wealth). \_ I did mention conquest. Trade is another way but requires more effort and skill than sitting on land and waiting. |
2007/3/26-29 [Science/GlobalWarming, Finance/Investment, Transportation/Car] UID:46096 Activity:nil |
3/26 My car has about 145K miles and so far I've had to do oil change every 3K miles. I'm thinking of switching to synthetic because I've heard that 10K synthetic oil change is equivalent to a regular 3K change. I hate having to get an oil change every 3K and if I can extend it to 10K it would be worth 2X the $ I pay for. Has anyone switched to synthetic yet? \_ I am running on synthetic, but not exactly for the reason you mentioned. Synthetic allows me to go about 7k miles between changes. One way to gauge it is, wipe the level check on a piece of paper, and you'll be able to see how 'dirty' the oil is. With regular, after 3-4k, the paper is dirty. With synthetic, after 6k, it's still reasonably clear. Synthetic also gives you more lubrication/power when your engine has been running for a while, such as on long trips. \_ I use synthetic because I don't want to bring my car in as often. It costs more but not that much more so it's worth it. |
2007/3/19-22 [Politics/Domestic/President/Clinton, Finance/Investment] UID:46015 Activity:low |
3/19 Ben Stein: It's A Good Time To Buy http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/26744 \_ useless article with no analysis. Typical. -tom \- you should read the BEEN STEIN smackdown from paul krugman. "i won the john bates clarke medal. you are a game show host." \_ Ugh, Krugman is an idiot--and Stein isn't a real estate expert. \_ dont you feel the slightest bit reticent calling a person well-acknowledged by their peers an idiot? i mean maybe his comments on march mandness are stupid, but in his area? \_ Krugman may be a bit gloomy, but could you point me to where he has been dead wrong? Thanks. \_ http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_luskin/luskin032003.asp http://www.poorandstupid.com/chronicle.asp http://www.onthefencefilms.com/commentary/stuart/krugman.html http://www.thenewsocialsecurity.com/Library/129.html \_ the first url isn't very convincing, spending the first three paragraphs on an ideological rant \_ The third one does not contain any evidence of factual errors, just a difference of opinion as to how scarce resources should be allocated. The author thinks that medical resources should be allocated on the basis of ability to pay, Krugman thinks they should be socialized. Just because someone disagrees with you, it doesn't make them "dead wrong." |
2007/3/12-14 [Finance/Investment] UID:45938 Activity:kinda low |
3/12 My iBook's time did not accomodate the time change, which seems weird since it gets the time from <DEAD>time.apple.com<DEAD>. How can I have it change automatically (i.e. not set it manually)? Thanks. \_ <DEAD>time.apple.com<DEAD> will only give you GMT. Your OS will still \_ http://tinyurl.com/3cckho will only give you GMT. Your OS will still need to adjust for the new DST. \_ Get the system update, your time zone files are screwed up. \_ Got it. Thanks. -op |
2007/3/8-11 [Finance/Investment] UID:45911 Activity:nil |
3/8 Damn this Bush economy! http://csua.org/u/i78 \_ note the number is the SUM net worth for ALL households, not the median percentage gain/loss per household. this would imply that those households with million-dollar+ hedge fund accounts would absorb much of the gain, just like they have much of the $$$ anyway, deserved or not. E.g., between 2001 - 2004, net worth for the median American family increased only 1.5% after inflation (took three years!). What you may be falsely implying is that in 2006, in just one year, the median American family saw a 7.4% increase in net worth. |
2007/3/7 [Finance/Investment, Reference/RealEstate] UID:45903 Activity:nil 88%like:45906 |
3/7 The Myth of "Superstar Cities" http://www.joelkotkin.com/Urban_Affairs/WSJ%20The%20Myth%20of%20Superstar%20Cities.htm |
2007/2/28-3/3 [Finance/Investment] UID:45844 Activity:low |
3/1 I lost some money in currency trading last year (about $1000). How do you exactly write it off for tax purposes? \_ Gambling loss. Did you have a receipt or any written documentation to back you up in case of an audit? \_ I have statements, and I have the statement that lists the initial deposit as well as the final withdraw amount (less). Is this sufficient? I thought this category is the same as stock-market loss instead of gambling loss? ok thx. \_ I think that would be a capitol loss and can only be used to offset capitol gains, but you can "save" it until you have some cap gains to offset. |
2007/2/27-3/1 [Finance/Investment] UID:45826 Activity:nil |
2/27 Chinese stock market go boom. \_ Too lazy to check Google News. What means, boom? Crash or grow? \_ Crash, followed by the Dow. |
2007/2/5-7 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush, Finance/Investment] UID:45661 Activity:kinda low |
2/5 Fuck Bush, R congress, Microsoft, Redhat <=AS2.1, et. al.. The DST change is going to make my life hell. \_ I actually like it. I think it is overdue. I want evening daylight, not daylight at 5:00am. \_ What are you talking about? \_ IYHTAYDW \_ If You Have To Ask You Don't... Whoah? \_ Time zone change? Did you mean the start and end of Daylight Savings time instead? \_ Yes. To your OS, there is no difference between the two. \_ The change of law that has moved the dates to start DST. \_ I thought M$ has downloads to update Windozes for this. \_ What about all the money/resources wasted to make new 'gadgets' that are aware of this stupid new DST? Have to replace your damned alarm clock for crying out loud! \_ Nah.. That's not "waste"! That's "reducing inventory"! \_ Hello ignorant person. This is hardly the first time DST has been changed. In about 8 seconds of searching you'll find the history of day light savings and see just how far back and how many times this has happened. I suggest searching for "History of day light savings". BTW, when you blame Bush and R's for every trivial thing you sound like Chicken Little. No one wants to hear the real complaints when you moan and cry and finger point about everything from DST changes to the ocean not being quite the right shade of pink in the mornings. \_ Wow, someone's hyperbole detector is on the fritz. Fuck off, little man. |
2007/1/29-2/1 [Finance/Investment] UID:45610 Activity:high |
1/28 If US currency is not backed by gold, what is the purpose of spending money on upkeeping and protecting gold in Fort Knox? \_ Ha you saw the history channel special too. ok im going to quit watching tv now. \_ Yay someone else besides me likes to watch the History Channel. It is the best! I like Modern Marvels and anything about Hitler. How about you? \_ It's a honey pot for evil geniuses \_ What are you asking? They should just leave a few gazillion lbs of gold on the front lawn? The gold still has value and IMHO provides an unofficial backing of our currency so debt buyers and cash holders know the USG has something of value sitting around just in case. \- this is pretty humorous. \- right on the "it has to be kept somewhere" part [and a number of monetary authorites agreed not to liquidate their gold reserves, even though it is sort of a loser investment], but i dont think your "imho" part is really true w.r.t. to the us. the total gold reserves are for example probably in the 1-2% of the us debt ... that's not really amaerica's collateral. the importance and exact reason for govts to hold gold has changed over time and i think it is fair to say the imp has generally declined. it's not reasonable to go much beyond this, but you might look up "special drawing rights" for what "replaced" gold [although we've sort of moved beyond SDRs too]. \_ Only 1-2%? Is that a real estimate or are you totally guessing? My totally random guess is that it would be higher but I haven't had a chance to tour Fort Knox in a while to count bars. \- the us debt is approaching 9 trillion. why dont you look up the price of gold today and calculate how many tons of gold 1-2% is. note: gold isnt measured in "regular" oz. if you dont even know there is more gold at the ny fed than at ft knox, it's hard to take your totally random guesses especially seriously. your totally random geusses especially seriously. \_ I said it was a totally random guess. Why would you take it seriously? \_ So you are saying "you first impression of me should have been 'i am dumb' and you should have ignored me." ... ? Can you sign your posts with a unique identifier so we can file this away for future reference? BTW, what is your guess at the percentage? note: this ignores the obvious fact that if you note: this obviously ignores the fact that if you had to sell any appreciable fraction of the gold to cover a debt, the price would collapse. on the other to cover a dept, the price would collapse. on the other and a lot of indian women would be really happy. \_ They're all accounted for and each room has a seal with the amount of gold in it. The latest estimate of the net worth in Fort Knox is about (in today's dollar) 100 billions. \_ I thought the lions share of the gold was removed (for the same reason you just mentioned, the US not needing it for money backing). Now the just store bullion cubes there (can never have too much soup imo). -mrauser \_ Mmmmm... soup! \_ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Bullion_Depository \_ "In volatile market, only stable investment... is PORN!" -- Avenue Q |
2006/12/26-30 [Politics/Domestic/California, Finance/Investment] UID:45498 Activity:nil |
12/26 Thomas Sowell's take on the fixation of income disparity. http://csua.org/u/hs4 \- this is such a bullshit essay. he is mischaracterizing the "it makes no sense" line. the question is about equillibria and looking for explanations for "out-of-equillibria" behavior. for example for sports stars or hollywoods starts, there is actually an explanation offered for the giant paychecks of megastars, and that is the "winner-takes-all" or "superstar" \_ "prize economy" is the phrase you are looking for theory [i dont know anything about sports, but the rough explanation is megastars like MJ dont just help you win games, MJ sell tickets, sell merchandise, sell the brand ... simlarly if you hire tom cruise-level stars, they arent just fulfilling an acting role, but casting them serves as advertising etc ... people magazing, entertainment tonight etc will advertise your movie because you have cast tom cruise. i.e. there are not really many substitutes for these types. there are a limited number. YMWTGF(sherwin rosen, economics of superstars).] this is more what an honest discussion of compensation issue and trends looks like: http://csua.org/u/hs5 and to go from "these salaries seem historically high" to "govt dept of regulation salaries" is obviously a textbook strawman. also the "famous essay" about the pencil was actually made famous by milton friedman. i dont think it was especially famous until he talked about it in his free to choose show. \_ Everyone should be paid according to their needs. Sorry, I just read Atlas Shrugged. ;) |
2006/12/15-21 [Politics/Domestic/SocialSecurity, Finance/Investment] UID:45452 Activity:moderate |
12/15 Shadow Statistics-- Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, recently delivered an upbeat view of the U.S. economy. It was cheerful, optimistic... and delusional. http://prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=53549 http://www.usatoday.com/money/2006-08-02-deficit-usat_x.htm \_ Ok, assuing one buys this, what does one invest in? Stocks are out, real estate (at least around here) is over-inflated. India's economy is over-heated. I don't trust the Chinese govt., so I don't want to invest there. Gold? Euro stocks? Japan? \_ AK's and canned food. \_ I just dumped money in Canada, perhaps too late as Canada has been solid for years now, but I think still a safe play. Japan also looks promising, although it has looked that way for years. \_ If you believe in what this guy is saying, you should head to the hills and try living as a subsistance farmer. He makes some valid points, but waaaaay overstates his case imho. \_ you don't think Japan's economy and Chinese economy is not interwind? You think Chinese economy exist in a vaccum? |
2006/11/30-12/12 [Finance/Investment] UID:45397 Activity:nil |
11/30 I'm willing to wager $100 that Soda will be up for another 3 months or less before it is completely down for at least 3 days again. \_ I'm willing to bet it will be within 3 weeks. \- I'm willing to bet it will be down for months this time around. and most services will be fucked forever. -linxu \_ it's too bad there isn't a simple http://tradesports.com thing to handle futures trading on something like this. i'd really be interested in one with a few more issues that big sites are too chickenshit to host, like: Enter recession (two consec quarters neg GDP) by Q207, or NASDAQ below 2,200 by Feb 28, 2007. 2Q07, or NASDAQ below 2,200 by Feb 28, 2007. |
2006/11/7-8 [Finance/Investment] UID:45210 Activity:kinda low |
11/6 The new 007 doesn't have a strong handsome look like Sean Connery and Timothy Dalton. Instead he looks like an average Joe, like me! This makes me feel really good about myself. Hooray! -average joe \_ Have you watched any of the Sean Connery Bond films recently? Casino Royale is technically the first of the Bond stories, since it begins before Bond is a double-0 agent. I think that as a nod to this they cast Daniel Craig who is more in the Sean Connery mold, i.e. strong and something of a bastard, than either Timothy Dalton or Pierce Brosnan who, compared to Connery are kind of pussies. -dans -gay dans \_ I for one welcome the change. I'm sick and tired of my gf saying how handsome Piercie looks. -jealous dude \_ I don't think that Craig is really in the Sean Connery mold. He seems too muscular and brutish, more like a thug than an intelligence officer. I'm willing to give him a chance, but I don't really have high expectations b/c the trailer makes the movie look like yaActionFlick, which is not what a Bond movie is/was. I actually liked Brosnan in GoldenEye and TND, but he was terrible in the last two movies. I'd say he was my 3d favorite bond behind Connery and Moore (yes I liked Roger Moore, he was humorous). To OP - I don't know many "average Joes" who look like this: http://entimg.msn.com/i/gal/CasinoRoyale/CasinoRoyale_400.jpg (but I am gay, so YMMV) -stmg \_ A lot of women I know seem to think he's pretty handsome, although most of my female friends who care were hoping for Clive Owen or Robbie Williams (?!?) One even mentioned Ewan McGregor but I guess he's too much of a prettyboy. -John \_ Obi-Wan as 007?!? Inconceivable! -stmg \_ What? I see no mention of Alec Guinness anywhere in this thread. \_ Okay, Young Obi-Wan as Young 007!?!? Inconceivable! -stmg |
2006/11/4-6 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush, Finance/Investment] UID:45157 Activity:low |
11/03 http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,227282,00.html Unemployment Rate Hits 5 1/2 Year Low at 4.4 Percent as Economy Adds 92,000 Jobs \_ See? Trickle-down economy works. Tax cut works. \_ The current unemployment numbers are totally cooked. According to the Economist, if unemployment today was measured the way that it was in the 70s, current unemployment would be 7%. I prefer to use overall employment, since it is harder to manipulate, and that is down over the last two years about two percent. \_ How were they calculated in the 70s vs today and when did it change? 7% is still pretty good. \_ No, we want to socialize everything like the Europeans, Canadians because that way our unemployment goes up! \_ How were they calculated in the 70s vs today and when did it change? 7% is still pretty good. |
2006/11/1-2 [Finance/Investment] UID:45081 Activity:nil |
11/01 Trump could be fined $250/day for violating his HOA rules. Oh I bet he's really scared! Not. http://www.cnn.com/2006/LAW/11/01/trump.flag.ap |
2006/10/26-27 [Finance, Finance/Investment] UID:44988 Activity:nil 66%like:44972 |
10/25 Revolt of the fairly rich http://tinyurl.com/yy42h7 (money.cnn.com) \_ Because they can best see the broken promises of the prior social order where "go to school, work hard = good retirement". |
2006/10/25-26 [Politics/Domestic/President/Clinton, Finance/Investment] UID:44972 Activity:nil 66%like:44988 |
10/25 http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/10/30/8391806 Revolt of the fairly rich \_ Because they can best see the broken promises of the prior social order where "go to school, work hard = good retirement". |
2006/10/20-24 [Industry/Startup, Finance/Investment] UID:44895 Activity:moderate |
10/19 Ok it's REALLY time to short GOOG -not the original short guy \_ On 10/19 (when you wanted to short GOOG), GOOG's stock price was 420.23 at the start of that day. It closed on 10/19 at 426.06. It opened on 10/20 at 458.99. Closed on 10/20 at 459.67. So assuming that you actually want to make money instead of losing money, I'd say that the answer to your question is this: ABSOLUTELY NOT. \_ Is this you? Price was around $420 http://csua.com/?entry=44745 \_ http://www.lyricsfreak.com/i/iron+maiden/die+with+your+boots+on_20068030.html \_ http://tinyurl.com/y8grrh (lyricsfreak.com) \_ Why would you short a company that just reported outstanding revenue and earnings growth? -tom \_ Shorting isn't my thing but in general because they get 99% of their revenue from ads which could dry up overnight for any number of reasons. There is more to evaluating a company than spreadsheets. \_ Are you also suggesting shorting all the TV networks? I don't think there's any likelihood that Google's ad revenue dries up in the short term; they are clearly the dominant force in Internet advertising and there is no credible challenger. More to the point, if your concern is that Google's ad revenue may dry up, why was that not true when the stock was at 100, 200, 300, 400? Why get in the way of a frieght train *now*? -tom \_ The TV networks have an age old and somewhat predictable ad model. The internet is not TV. It's only barely got off the ground. So it went from IPO 80ish to 400+. Past performance, especially something like the stock value, does not in any way guarantee future performance. In 98 everyone thought it was a New Economy and "all the old rules are broken! Its the Intarweeb ya know!" Anyway, no, I have never traded nor would ever trade google. They hide too much information to make an informed decision about their true value. \_ My point is not that Google will go up indefinitely; it's that shorting should be done of companies with it's that shorting should be done to companies with significant, identifiable business problems, not companies making gobs of money and growing rapidly. It is virtually impossible for a common investor to time the turn of a market or a stock correctly. -tom \_ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/21/AR2006102100936_pf.html But yes, I do agree that one should not try to time an individual stock ever or the market in general. Trying to time a secretive company like google would be financially suicidal. Their stock price will continue to rise... until it doesn't. Once the "it is google! it is the New Economy Intarweeb!" shine rubs off, their stock will plummet and drop back to something reasonable, but no one can say day that will be. It could be next quarter, it could be years. Check out the link, it describes internet ad business's time bomb waiting to go off. \_ For me, the scariest thing about Google isn't their business model but their approach to "managing" their engineers - and I use those quotation marks wisely. -!tom \_ How so? It isn't all that different from a lot of other companies created in that time. \_ Yeah and most of them have failed. The no management approach to management might be appropriate for a startup, but I just don't see how a company of 5000 can operate that way. \_ Most of them failed for business reasons. Their engineers mostly created all sorts of amazingly cool stuff. Don't blame lack of engineer skill or dedication for the dotcom bust. \_ Believe me, I don't. I blame bad management and insane financial expectations. But aren't these exactly Google's problems now? \_ Please explain. |
2006/10/4-6 [Reference/Tax, Finance/Investment] UID:44676 Activity:low |
10/4 Just FYI, the Dow has hit an all-time high. In this crappy Bush economy, damn him. \_ 1. median income went down. 2. average income only increased by something lik 0.3% while the inflation is running around 2-3%. 3. housing price is dropping and interest is raising. For those who is making less than $200,000 a year, life is actually kind of sucks. \_ My life doesn't suck. \_ And it only took 7 years... \_ Try 5 years. And recall what happened in those 5 years. \_ Jan 2000 - Oct 2006.. Nearly 7 years. Also, using the DOW as your measure for "the economy" is.. stupid. \_ As soon as that brings in taxes that cancel out the huge tax cuts and let us stop deficit spending like irresponsible college students I'll be impressed. \_ The tax cuts just weren't that big. The poor don't pay income taxes, the middle class get soaked of course and the truly rich never paid income taxes of any note. It's a nice idea though. Imagine if Mrs. Kerry actually paid the same percentage on her taxes that normal people do and didn't have a zillion loopholes. \_ The cuts weren't just in income taxes... \_ So if they weren't big, then they should already have been cancelled out and we should have budget surpluses and be able to start paying off the Debt. Right? (Not talking about mid-year surplus B.S.) \_ Gosh, because spending went up? Waaaay up? naah. I'd still like Mrs. Kerry to pay the same percentage of her income in taxes that normal people do. \_ And I'd rather that she pay a high percentage commensurate with the increased value of the benefit she gets from having a society that doesn't burn down her house for hoarding wealth. -Dem |
2006/10/3-5 [Consumer/Audio, Finance/Investment] UID:44649 Activity:nil |
10/3 http://dynamism.com/nabaztag/main.shtml Cute rabbits \_ It would be cooler if you could buy two, supply them with power, and sell the results. |
2006/10/1-3 [Finance/Investment, Recreation/Media] UID:44619 Activity:low |
10/1 Casino Royale Trailer is up: http://www.apple.com/trailers/sony_pictures/casinoroyale/trailer1a I miss Sean, Bond is not just yaActionHero. \_ Yeah, that's the trailer that makes me think that this guy will be George Lasenby (sp?) II \_ Does new Bond's perpetual Zoolanderish lip pucker annoy anyone else? \_ Does new Bond's perpetual Zoolanderish lip pucker annoy anyone else? \_ I can't stand the new guy. Why did they have to switch from Brosnon? Was he getting too old? \_ I liked the new guy in Layer Cake and Munich. Give him a chance. --erikred, who also like Pierce Brosnan \_ Well, I'll still watch it. I always watch Bond and Star Trek movies (even the odd numbered ones!) -stmg |
2006/9/21-24 [Politics, Finance/Investment] UID:44488 Activity:nil |
9/21 Dear socialists. Please stop your childish mockery of the invisible hand. It is getting old. -free market supporter \_ You are a tool, and are the reason it's fun to mock free market supporters. The ideas of free market economics outlasted the USSR, have spread across the globe, and have won out again and again in the brutal international marketplace of ideas. They can also survive The Hand that Wanks the Motd, and they can survive without your whining. \_ why don't we abolish SEC, EPA, FDA, FAA, and National Highway Safety Board, let the market decide the minimum safety requirements and insider trading? \_ The proletariat will rise up and crush you, capitalist running dog. --mao \_ the reason why I am a leftist is precisely this. if we don't try to narrow the gap between the rich and poor, at some point proletariats will rise up. \_ Actually, you're wrong. There are almost no pure free markets. In the "market of ideas", the winner is really that the best economic system is a mix of free market and gov't regulation. Extremism in either direction causes much suffering. \_ I'm not advocating pure free markets, or any other economic system. I'm just pointing out that op's whining is idiotic. I didn't start this idiotic thread. \_ The invisible hand can not be resisted. --the invisible hand |
2006/9/19-22 [Finance/Investment] UID:44438 Activity:nil |
9/19 Wtf is Etrade charging me $40 for not trading, and can I move my holdings out of their grimy, usurious hands? \_ I transfered all my holdings from Etrade to Ameritrade several years ago b/c it just didn't like dealing w/ them. There is a transfer in kind form that you will need to fill out. Usually the new brokerage will be able to give you the necessary info. the fucking new brokerage will be able to give you the necessary info. \_ Same here, moved to Scottrade. Just make sure which ever company you move to does not have the same stupid company you move to does not have the fucking same stupid "inactivity" fee. \_ You can also ask ameritrade for free trades for opening up a new account (or transferring shares/money into it). |
2006/9/3-6 [Science/GlobalWarming, Finance/Investment] UID:44260 Activity:nil |
9/3 Most people think the housing boom will turn into a slowdown, and some think that it'll crash. In either case, what do you think the most likely scenario for rich investors to invest next? Gold? Silver? Energy? Or maybe Tech stocks all over again? \_ Definitely gold. Tech stocks are long dead. |
2006/9/3-7 [Finance/Investment] UID:44259 Activity:kinda low |
9/3 Hi motd. I'm in my mid 20s and I have about $35K cash. I already have a decent place to live and I have a car, thus I don't want to spend my cash on anything other than investments. What is a good investment strategy for someone like me? Thanks. \_ How soon might you need to use the cash? I'd think about buying property, although the timing is not so good right now. \_ in the long term, just dump all your cash into QQQQ and/or SPDR electronic index fund. If you want be a bit more advanturous, you can spend 1/4 or 1/3 on GLD, then the rest in index fund. Don't wait on the side-line for too long, don't try to pull money out when the market moves ups and down. \_ How did you come up with 35K in cash while still in your mid-20s and presumably saddled with a mortgage? Are you a hooker? \_ Yes, I am a hooker. -hooker \_ It makes sense if you assume this person is renting, even better, a room in a house, even better, sharing a room, even better, got the car as a gift/used from parents. Even if you didn't invest, you could have much more than $35K in savings if you were frugal. How many 26-year-olds do you see wandering around with a mortgage (even interest-only) without parental assistance or special circumstances? \_ It's called "not living in California". A 90,000 dollar condo is not out of reach for a 26 year old. \_ Wow. A wonderful 90,000 dollar condo in the middle of the paradise that is Oklahoma. Your life must be wonderful. \_ Or maybe she is a hooker. \_ One can only hope so. -John Karr \_ Depends on how cautious you are. It might be a good idea to get a short term (3-mo) CD for part of the money b/c interest rates on CDs are now about 5%. \_ Depends on how cautious you are. It might be a good idea to get a short term (3-mo) CD for part of the money b/c interest rates on CDs are now about 5%. I would put the rest into Mutual Funds or QQQQ. \_ I know nothing about finance, and had never heard of QQQQ, so I looked it up. Looking at the following graph: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=QQQQ&t=my I'm perplexed as to why anyone would want to invest in that. Can someone explain? \_ as scary as it may sound, but this is about as good as you can do. FYI, a money manager who can consistantly beat the market by 1% is considered pretty good. \_ QQQQ is an index fund that tracks the Nasdaq. To the extent that the U.S. economy has growth prospects, the Nasdaq is a fairly safe bet. -tom \_ So are you saying that the graph in the above link is wrong? If you had invested almost any time in the last six years, you would lose money. Or at least that's my interpretation of the data. \_ If you are in your mid 20s and you don't need the money in the short term, the stock market has traditionally been the best place to keep your money. You need to have a longer time horizon than 5 years. -tom \_ I disagree. If one invested in late 2002, one would have made a decent amount of money. I certainly did. The other things about QQQQ is that it is not a long term investment. It is preferable to trade somewhat regularly to realize your gains. BTW, I meant to say you should put the remainder into QQQQ and Mutual Funds (not 'or'). Mutual Funds provide much more long term stability, but the returns (on ave.) are not as good as trading QQQQ frequently. I personally hold a few "growth" or "tech" mutual funds, a few bond funds and a few mixed funds in addition to a limited number of QQQQ b/c I am a very risk averse investor. \_ Mutual funds has higher cost. ETF like QQQQ and/or SPDR is still the best bet. \_ "Best bet" is relative. QQQQ or SPDR have some- what more volatility than bond funds and some conservative "growth" funds. If one is risk averse, mutual funds are safer, which (imo) is worth the marginally higher cost. \_ not if you're in your 20s and don't need the money right now. -tom \_ I disagree. I have been a conservative investor all my life (starting at age 18). I may never become a millionaire, but I have also never lost any money on my safe investments (I even made an ave. of 8% during the bust years). To me, the feeling of security is worth much more than the potential "upside." Perhaps to you it is not. One size does not fit all. \_ mutual funds aren't any safer than QQQQ. -tom \_ most do not have so much Tech. \_ I have been an agressive investor for 6 years and I just made my first million. You should be a millionaire by the time you retire, at the very least. \_ You are also a bad speller, and motd entry over-writer. \_ FLPSX. I used to invest on FDGFX, until I realized that FLPSX was doing better in both boom times and bomb times. So I switched over. \_ Want to put you in touch with a financial advisor? |
2006/7/21-25 [Finance/Investment, Finance/CC] UID:43759 Activity:kinda low |
7/21 I understand valet tipping is now customarily $2 (up from $1). Is it customary to tip the valet if, let's say, there is a required $2.50 or $3 fee to use the valet, and you're driving let's say an 1999 Camry? What about required fees of $5 or higher? What do you do? \_ To avoid this stupid discussion again, look: http://csua.com/?entry=27200 http://csua.com/?entry=42275 http://csua.com/?entry=42038 http://csua.com/?entry=41928 http://csua.com/?entry=36732 http://csua.com/?entry=34977 http://csua.com/?entry=34956 http://csua.com/?entry=33171 http://csua.com/?entry=26270 http://csua.com/?entry=18819 \_ Generally, tips are independent of any "mandatory" charge. A gratuity is a thank you for good service and is voluntary, I don't care what anyone says. -John \- i'm sort of curious what your actual tipping range is in USA restaurants. say what percentage of the time do you tip under 10%? BTW, do you also consider wedding gifts optional? was it holube who considered wedding gifts optional but considers tips "mandatory"? \_ was it passb who considers "holube" a clever insult? Wedding gifts are optional if you didn't attend the wedding. -tom \_ They are mandatory if you did attend? \_ By etiquette, yes. -tom john advisory: are you from SF? the situation in SF has gotten sort of complicated with the minimum wage law change since it doesnt have a tip credit ... it basically takes money away from the worst paid employees [busboys, dishwasher etc] and xfers more money to the much-higher-paid and certainly over minwage frontroom wait staff. one restaurant owner [i think at incanto] responded by creating a "mandatory" service charge, which made a lot of people go insane. then again most people cant think in economically rational manner and people seem to have amazing ability for self-serving delusion per the corkage article recently discussed in the motd. \_ OK, we'll just cut your salary in half, then, and expect you to make it up on tips. -tom \_ Bad example; I'm an independent consultant and if I don't deliver, or provide crappy service, I don't get paid. Why should I be compelled to pay someone anything beyond the indicated price if he's a surly shit? -John \_ Gee, I didn't know I could refuse to pay my independent consultants if they are surly. Does it say that in your contract? You are compelled to pay according to whatever the local tipping rules are, because their salaries have been cut with the expectation that they will make the rest on tips. The U.S. would be a better place if waiters earned a real wage and tipping were truly gratuitous, but they don't and it's not. -tom \_ No, you're able to not pay them if they do not provide the service they are contracted to do. In the case of service personnel, part of their job is to provide me with civil, competent service. If they do not, it should reflect on their earnings. And tipping is fine, it gives me a chance to stiff the guy throwing a snit while serving me. -John \_ But it's not OK for someone to stiff you for throwing a snit, of course. -tom \_ Apples and oranges. A waiter might get a $100 tip or a $0 tip. A better waiter will usually make more than a poor one. I happen to think that waiters actually benefit from the current system. A decent waiter can make $60K/year easy. Without tips, it's probably half that. \- 1. the true distribution is not $100 or $0. and you need to talk in terms of percentages anyway. a server at a boulevard may get a $100 tip but will never ever get $0. the waiter at the neighborhood pasta restaurant is never ever going to get $100. so i think the tip distribution has probably 90% of its mass in the 12%-22% range. 2. i think tip pooling among the frontroom staff is not uncommon, so the poor waiter can be shielded. 3. the waiters even benfitted more from the fact that there is no tip credit in CA when it comes to min wage [this is for waiters at decent places]. 4. i think $60k is a bit high for your waiter salary estimate [do waiters work 40hr weeks?]. See e.g. work 40hr weeks?]. See e.g. http://http://www.chowhound.com/topics/show/28844 for some details on reasonably high end restaurant operation. As well as: http://csua.org/u/gi2 \_ If you have a crappy waiter, SOP is to give the manager a tip and tell him to make sure the bus boy gets it. Stiffing bus boys is king lame. And Partha, my mom has a culinary placement company in SF, so I'm well aware of the tipping & wage situation. I'm also aware that a good waiter can pull upwards of $100k, a lot of it effectively tax free. -John \- What percentile would you guess $60k and $100k are in terms of waiter incomes in SF? \- What fraction of waiters in SF would you say make $60k or more? $100k or more? Yes, I realize there are escalatory ways of dealing with exceptionally lame service, but I dont think most people resort do that ... and they are pretty rare events i'd say. i agree routing the tip to the mgs is a good routing the tip to the mgr is a good way to deal with the situation. [I personally weigh intentional things like snooty obnoxiousness [Aqua] more heavily than minor incompetence [dropped plate ... that stuff happens]]. I've sort of decided to put up with less deliberately bad service and walk out of places. BTW, I do agree with you than the getting rid of tipping is probably not the way to go, although I dont think the status quo is perfect. It's sort of like rent control ... there are pros and cons ... one regime not unambiguously better than the other. and cons ... one regime not "pareto superior" to the other. \_ I'm not interested in how much a waiter makes, or what percentage of waiters make >$60k (a good number in more upscale restaurants). That is not my problem. In a restaurant, I am paying for the experience as much as for the food. If a waiter is being a shit (surprise, it does happen), I should make sure the owner knows this (maybe through the manager) as he has a financial stake in the business. In the meantime, I will not give "hey, thanks, good job" money to a waiter, bellhop, cabbie or anyone else who gives me a shitty attitude (note that I'm not talking about incompetence or inexperience here.) There is no obligation to tip, but if you feel your service was ok or better, some conventions apply. -John \- I understand what you are saying. I am just sort of curious what %age of the time or how many times per year the service hits the threashold of not tipping, rerouting the tip etc. In the past 15 years say, i can think of maybe 10ish incidents ... in one case [in durant court] we left a 5cent tip that was thrown at us as we we leaving, but i really havent caused a scene in a med/highend place. [sometimes because i was somebody else guest, in other cases because the management made it up sort of [free bottle of wine] etc. if this is something you do 1-2% od the time [like inb my case], od the time [like in my case], then it's more sort of an ad hoc reaction, than your "standard behavior for bad service". i think the place where i most frquently get annoyed are bars where the bartender is lame about imple- menting FIFO. i guess i have caused a scene in a high end place but we left a very very large tip :-). Not often, to be honest--maybe about 10 times in the last 5 _/ years. I have a pretty high tolerance; usually I just leave a lower tip if service is really bad enough to make me notice. However, we frequently go to nice restaurants, and I know what I can expect for a given price, so I don't hesitate to ask for a different waiter. I've only walked out on a place once or twice, and usually I'll tell the manager if something really pisses me off (normally they're very cool about it.) I dislike waiters being snippy, being ignored, having food take a very long time even when we ask about it, pissy reactions when a dish isn't acceptable, and worst of all, "do you want your change?" The problem is that most people feel a bit intimidated and think they owe the waiter something, and are afraid to speak up when something really sucks. -John \_ Once a waitress argued with us that a certain item was not on the menu. We said that it was. She said it was not. We again told her it was. She again said it was not. We asked for the menu. She was wrong. This was a fairly nice restaurant (Campanile in LA). The manager overheard the whole thing and gave us free dessert. That is acceptable and she got a 15% tip. Since two of my sisters (and their two boyfriends) are in the restaurant business (GM, chef, waitress, and sommelier) in nice SF restaurants I can definitely say that $60K isn't a problem if you are experienced and that you really shouldn't leave less than 10% even if the service sucked. However, you should complain to the GM. It is the GM's job to make things right. Also, without tipping, I really do think waiters/waitresses would make a whole lot less money and as a result the quality of service (already poor in most cases) would get worse as professionals left for other jobs. Tipping works well, because when the restaurant does well so does everyone and when the restaurant does poorly then everyone suffers. No sense keeping waiters on at $60K+ when business is bad. \_ Only once in the last five years have I not tipped, and that was at the Grill place across the street from the Piedmont Landmark Theater (formerly a Rolling Dunes): the entire wait staff were rude and indolent. We did not tip, and we will not be back. --erikred \_ Funny, that's in my neighberhood, I go there all the time, and get fine and friendly service. Chris, the owner and often bartender, is the only shop owner on the street (except for the yogurt place) who knows me and greets me on sight. One thing to remember is that waiters have to deal with obnoxious customers a lot more often than you have to deal with obnoxious waiters. We all have bad days. -tom \_ Agreed, but this was beyond the pale. This was mid-day, and the fan above our table was casting a shadow that was making all four of us dizzy and queasy. We asked a waiter if it would be possible to turn it off; he went off to ask someone, but never came back to tell us one way or the other. We asked another waiter and finally the person who looked like the manager at the time, and were similarly blown off. At the same time, our orders arrived and were wrong; even though there were only three groups of customers there including us, no one ever came by to see if we needed more water, more food, or even the bill. We eventually went to the bar to ask for our bill, and when we paid, we left no tip. Please understand, I have friends who are waiters and I am sympathetic to the plight of the working wait staff, but this level of silliness was untenable. --erikred \- i think "routing around" the problem works when the problem is a lame/snooty/etc waiter, but there are some establishements that have that problem [farralon, aqua, various medium level but hot and packed placed in the mission], i wonder if they will do anything. or even at say zacharies, a place i think is sort of customer unfriendly. re: the "feel they owe their waiter something" ... i think in part they feel they will be thought of a cheep [perhaps "justifying" in the waiters mind thinking "these guys are declasse"] if they just leave a small tip without elaborating on the reason. and most people may not have the personality to say something beyond the tip. \_ Weird. I have been to Farralon three times and Aqua once and all four times I had great service. How many times have you been to Aqua? -ausman \_ I, too, had superb service at Aqua the one time I went. --erikred \_ If you leave a 10% tip they definitely get the idea that you are either dissatisfied or declasse. You have to tell the manager why if you want them to know which. All I am saying is that 10% is low enough that they will know something's up. I know people who stiff the waitstaff and I've only do that in an extreme situation (e.g. the one time I was asked to not patronize a particular restaurant ever again). As for Zachary's, it is very unfriendly to customers. The cash only policy is evidence of that. \- along with no RSVP, no pitchers of soda, exploiting children etc. \_ Again, stiffing the "waitstaff" is lame. The busboy can't help it if the waiter's a prick. Nor can the waiter if the restaurant has crappy policies. Use your own judgment, and as psb says, let the GM know, they need to be aware of this sort of stuff. But I've been at Farallon 7-8 times and never had bad service. -John \_ Tipping is fundamentally a way to enforce class structure. The wealthy (restaurant/valet/hotel/taxi patrons) want to have the right to punish the servants for insolence. Look at the sense of entitlement displayed in the comments in this thread; it's really pretty sad. -tom \_ Uh...I want to punish someone who gives me crappy service and bad attitude. In shops, I can't do this to the sales clerk directly, in restaurants I can. Don't turn this into some pseudo-Marxist class warfare claptrap. I's a not tryin to keep the po' folk in they's place, just have a nice dinner without some snotty shit spoiling it. 15% says "you did a reasonable job, thanks". 10% = "you did not do a good job." Anything less, including 0% = "you suck, fuck you." That's my right as a customer. -John \_ Ponder these two questions: 1) How did the tipping rules get developed in the U.S.? Why is the waiter tipped and the shopkeeper not? 2) Why are relatively large tips customary in the U.S. and generally not elsewhere? -tom \_ The shop clerk (not shopkeeper, wrong comparison) is not tipped because he is not providing a service in the same class as the waiter, shoe shine guy, taxi driver, etc.; many salesmen also get commission. \_ Commission is not the same as tipping. And what is different about the class of service being provided by a taxi driver vs. a shop clerk? Non-circular definition, please. -tom \_ The shop clerk is selling me an item. His manner of selling it, strictly speaking, is not part of the overall experience I am paying for. With a waiter or cab driver, it is (how nice is the service, how smooth is the ride.) Same with shoe-shine guys, or valets. What's your point? -John \_ That's a crock; plenty of shops provide personal service at or above the level of shoe-shine-boy. (Like a shoe store, for one). -tom \- i agree there is something "american" about the tipping system ... compared to a more "socialist" system [modulo tip pooling], but i think holube is overstating things. where i think there is a class system is the disparity bt/ frontroom staff and the often minority back of the house people like the dish washing crew who are paid lower and certainly work hard and get no part of the tip pool. under a sort of rawlsian theory i'd rather see increased spoils going to them rather than the wiatstaff [in re: sf min wage change]. and i also think at reasonable standard resturants the waitstaff are not just passive agents to their fate ... i think some probably consciously tailor behavior to who the expect better tips from ... and if they guess wrong, well they deserve to lose out a bit. [i've seen white businessmen in their 50s get much better service than i did when in my late 20s at places like aqua. analogous to the bartender who give better service to hot chicks who are lousy tippers ... at least in cash.] \_ Hello, there is no tipping in Japan and yet the wait staff are still professional and polite. I see no reason to reward wait staff here who cannot do this. I'm not expecting anything more than civility and politeness; I'm certainly not looking for servility. \_ Paying 15% in the U.S. isn't "rewarding" wait staff; it's paying their wage. More than 15% could reasonably be construed as reward. -tom \_ This is an semi-invisible system in that the general public is not usually made aware that wait staff's salaries have been depleted to the point where tips mean the difference surviving or not. I agree that the situation needs to fixed (i.e., adjust wages to comp), but relying on customer support of an unpublished system sounds broken. That said, I generally tip 20%. --erikred \_ It's not really an unpublished system; it's part of etiquette. I agree that the system is untenable, and I think it's particularly onerous because it has its roots in slavery and the culture surrounding it. I certainly don't think I get better service in the U.S. compared to overseas in countries where tipping is not customary (because they pay full wages). -tom \_ In many other countries, being a waiter is a career choice. In the US (except at high-end restaurants) it is not. The quality of service reflects this. However, I can't say that I've gotten really great service at dive restaurants in, say, Europe either. I think your ideas about the nature of tipping are crazy. As I said before, I think most waiters make out better by earning tips than they would without. \_ It is basically unpublished. There are so many immigrants here in the bay area for example that it's not realistic to expect everyone to be on the same page wrt tipping. I see that clearly with coworkers. They have no idea. I never really analyzed it in detail either... sure you see your parents and others do the 15% thing but the details are not explained. How many people know how the tips apply to busboys? What do you do in buffet restaurants? The tipping system seems like a good one for a more homogeneously civilized society but not apropos now. (One coworker from India thought it was ok to tip almost nothing at a lunch joint. Of course he also liked to talk about the dirt-cheap food and services in India where regular engineers had full-time chauffeurs etc.) \- having a chauffeur in india is like having somebody mow your lawn here. but your major point stands: indians treat service class people like shit and tip like shit. the latter is a social norm diffcult to change but there is no excuse for the former. a dramatic case of this is how westerners and indians deal with say trekking guides and porters ... on the other hand, i think indians are often pretty low maint when it comes to "special requests". |
2006/7/20-22 [Finance/Investment] UID:43748 Activity:nil |
7/20 My old 401k from my old employer offers about 12 plans whereas my 403b (I work in the government now) offers maybe 40 plans. I like my 403b plans a lot better and think maybe I will rollover. Is this a good/bad idea? Is it typical for 403b to offer more choices than 401k? Any advice would be appreciated, thanks! \_ How much do you trust the Government and the Banks to provide for your retirement? As a government employee, I have decided my level of trust: I do not buy into any official plan, save 2/3 of my after tax income to cash, and spend it on supplies for the comming apocalypse. Maybe you should take a look at who's calling the shots with the U.S.'s money and consider doing the same. \_ I'm not sure about that, but I do know that 403b plans are not allowed to match employee contributions the way most 401k plans do. This sucks. That said, my 403b plan offers 100s of investment plan options, although it used to only offer 10 or so. \_ matching vs. not really doesn't matter now that OP has a 403b job as far as rolling in is concerned. to the OP: taxes are hard. get a professional. it'll cost you $200 at most and may save you many tens of thousands. \_ wow, so if we say some engineer is making $100K/year, that $200 service may save at least $20K for that year? or are you talking about dual-engineer-income? \_ Not pp, but making a mistake on rolling over a retirement can cost you a LOT of money on penalties. Since op is asking for financial advice on motd, there's a good chance op doesn't know about all the possible pitfalls. \_ Why would you rollover into the 403b? Roll over into an IRA and then you'll have even *more* choices. \_ 2nd that suggestion |
2006/7/19-21 [Science/GlobalWarming, Finance/Investment] UID:43730 Activity:nil |
7/19 1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html \- it's a little strange to see Irving Fischer descibed as "PhD in economics" \- it's a little strange to see Irving Fisher descibed as "PhD in economics" ... somewhat interestingly, his advisor was JWGIBBS of Gibbs Free Energy fame. |
2006/7/18-20 [Finance/Investment] UID:43717 Activity:nil |
7/18 GOOG will go up to 850 next summer and deflate back to 750 before winter. -motd stock oracle \_ Why? (ObWhere'sShortGOOGAt100/200/300 Guy?) -tom \_ If you try to reason why stock market is the way it is, you'll never catch the wave. The reason why it'll go up to 850 has nothing to do with any reasoning except for expected human irrationality. -pp, hope to win the stock prediction award \_ *boggle* holy shit, that's stupid. |
2006/7/11 [Finance/Investment, Transportation/Bicycle] UID:43631 Activity:moderate |
7/11 Are there floor model bicycle pumps that can switch between high volumn and high pressure? I can barely pump up to 85 PSI for my bike and I'm wondering if they have a pump that can switch to pumping high pressure, like some of those fancy portable pumps. ok thx. \_ How would such a thing work? PV=nRT, with n,R,T relatively constant. Since the compression cylinder would have to be a constant volume initially, it seems like it's always going to be a PITA to pump to high pressure, no matter what? \_ Decent floor pumps don't have difficulty pumping to high pressure. -tom \_ I just returned my $25 made in China pump for a $30 made in Germany pump. Both of them are hard to pump after 95PSI which was a big disappointment. It took a lot of efforts to get up to 115PSI. After 95PSI, if the pump handlebar isn't pressed down completely, the pump handle forces it to pop back up probably because the valve is opened up and the pressure built from the tire pumps the handlebar upwards! Is this normal? -op -tom \_ No, it's not normal. I have something similar to http://www.performancebike.com/shop/profile.cfm?SKU=21099&subcategory_ID=4360 and I can easily pump to 120psi. One thing: Presta valves are much better for bikes than Schraeder (car-type) valves, partly because of this specific issue. Switch to presta if you are using Schraeder now. -tom \_ Force required to pump = cross section of pump * pressure Volume pumped = cross section * length Max achievable pressure = Your strength / cross section of pump. So you can see the only way you can get a high volume and a low force requirement if to have a pump change diameter as pressure increases. This is not a practical design. \_ It's not impractical at all. One simple way to do it is to have two chambers in the pump. Use both of them for high volume/low pressure, or one chamber for low pressure/high volume. In case you missed it, there are mini pumps on the market that incorporate such a feature. There's no real point in putting it into a floor pump since good floor pumps are so much easier to use. \_ My favorite floor pump is the Topeak Joe Blow Pro; I find it quite easy to use to inflate my 120psi tires. To give you another data point, I'd avoid the Silca Super Pista (people rave about how serviceable it is, but it requires a lot of force, and you have to hold the head on the valve, so you're left inflating with one hand). |
2006/7/7-10 [Finance/Investment, Computer/SW/RevisionControl, Science/Space] UID:43587 Activity:nil |
7/7 If the Space Shuttle has no fuel tank, how does it change course when it tries to leave orbit and return to earth? Thx. \_ It has small thrusters on it. \_ Yep, they jet compressed O2, IIRC. Basically they just nudge themselves "down" a bit, coast down, nose up to come in w/ the heat tiles facing down, and then once in atmo and not falling like a rock can use aileron/elevators and rudder. \_ Those are the attitude adjustment nozzles. It also has a main deorbiting thruster that uses a small amount of rocket fuel. \_ for 'in-space' maneuvering, it has two different sets of rockets. The RCS thrusters for attitude adjustment and fine maneuvering, and the OMS engines (two 'medium sized' rockets on the back) for larger orbital adjustments. -ERic |
2006/7/2-5 [Politics/Domestic/Immigration, Finance/Investment] UID:43552 Activity:nil |
7/2 The Underground Economy http://wsjclassroom.com/archive/05apr/econ_underground.htm |
2006/6/20-24 [Finance/Investment] UID:43443 Activity:nil |
6/20 http://www.forbes.com/2006/06/19/intel-0619markets13.html I don't get it. Why does INTC stock stay relatively flat / decline after a big brokerage changes the rating from Neutral to Buy, and increases the price target from $21 to $23? All the major indices are up too. \_ I don't think too many investors care about the ratings. I know I don't. |
2006/6/2-4 [Politics/Domestic/California, Finance/Investment] UID:43256 Activity:nil |
6/2 Zinc. http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/01/news/newsmakers/penny/index.htm?cnn=yes \_ 65% of the people think the penny should be eliminated. Yay! Now if only they can turn dollar bills into loonies and two dollars into toonies, that'd be cool too. \_ profit-making scheme: buy pennies for one cent each sell them for their zinc \_ Mark Weller tells us "Americans want pennies" Backed by zinc lobby \_ behold the penny heavy, useless currency uses too much zinc \_ we are galvanized in our monetary aim turn all bills to zinc \_ Modernization Of legal tender permits No place for pennies \_ In the current thread This haiku does not belong No mention of zinc |
2006/5/17-22 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush, Finance/Investment] UID:43084 Activity:nil |
5/17 Case against Jeff Skilling and Ken Lay of Enron goes to jury. Predictions? Skilling faces 31 counts, Lay faces 7, including securities and wire fraud (fraudulent SEC reports and financial constructs, lying to analysts and employees about health of company), insider trading (Skilling only, selling $62.6 million in shares after he quit when he allegedly knew it was a house of cards), and false statements (to Big5 companies and banks). http://csua.org/u/fw4 (usatoday.com) \_ chance of a Bush pardon? \_ With extremely low approval ratings and the midterm elections coming up, is he really that dumb? Wait, don't answer that. \_ But..but approval polls *have no relevance whatsoever*! MOTD told me so! Waaahhh! \_ I'll be $10 against a Bush pardon, anyone wanna take it? |
2006/5/14-18 [Finance/Investment] UID:43052 Activity:nil |
5/14 What is really going on with the $US? Like, what happened on March 22? I was looking into diversifying currency but volatility like this is scary. http://www.x-rates.com/d/ISK/USD/graph30.html \_ Investing in money is dumb. If you want to invest against the dollar invest in foreign stocks/funds. \_ It's about what it was a year ago. http://www.x-rates.com/d/EUR/USD/hist2005.html \_ That's because I decided to go to Iceland (really). \_ Did you turn gay like that gay icelander video? \_ Can't keep a secret on soda, fuck, who ratted me out! No, I'll just be visiting for a few days, to the blue lagoon and the capital. |
2006/5/9-14 [Finance/Investment] UID:42996 Activity:nil |
5/9 Explanation of the recent I-bond rate change http://csua.org/u/fs6 (sfgate.com) |
2006/5/8-12 [Finance/Investment] UID:42984 Activity:nil |
5/8 U.S. dollar in freefall. Whee! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeat_econindicators_capict_20060314 \_ While the graph looks pretty, I don't know that I'd actually call 0.835 - 0.785 = 0.05 in 3 months "freefall" \_ That's 6% loss in 3 months, which if continues is 24% over a year. This blows away gains from any CD's. http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeat_econindicators_capict_20060314 |
2006/5/4-5 [Finance/Investment] UID:42926 Activity:nil |
5/4 Should pennies be taken out of circulation? Pros/cons? \_ Absolutely. They're a nuisance. Further, dollar bills should be taken out and replaced with dollar coins. Dollar bills are very inefficient currency: it costs a lot of money to print them and replace them since they wear out so fast. Coins last 20+ years. \_ Who cares? \_ I think all coins should be replaced with paper money of equal denominations. Why? Bills are easier to carry in a typical wallet. Most wallets sold these days don't seem to have a compartment for coins. Those that do have it usually get torn down eventually with the metal coins. Besides, paper money is cheaper to print. coins. Those that do have it usually get torn down eventually due to friction. Besides, paper money is cheaper to print. \_ The coin lobby comes from the vending machine industry. They're the ones that pushed for the dollar coin. \_ Replace it by living-torg. -John \_ I think the correct answer is non-physical money. We're at the point where the cost to build out the infrastructure is less than the cost of counting coins. \_ There are too many arguments against exclusively electronic currency to count. Privacy concerns aside, your argument assumes universal good infrastructure and similar price and profit levels for all businesses, disregards the need for failsafe mechanisms (power outages?) and doesn't consider that currency isn't just used in its country of origin. -John \_ Yes. Seriously, 1 cent? Zimbabwe doesn't even bother to make anything smaller than their $500 bill! http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/05/02/africa/zimbabwe.php \_ We should re-value the currency. Well, issue new currency that is worth 10 times the old. So newDollar = $10old, and newDime = $1old. This would be too expensive. But it would be nice. We could go back to 10 cent hamburgers, and a decent car would cost $2000. The American people would be psychologically rejuvenized! And the economy would get a kick in the pants from extra spending. This plan is the best. But sadly it will never be followed. |
2006/5/3-4 [Politics/Foreign, Finance/Investment] UID:42910 Activity:nil |
5/3 Government getting in the way of free trade, *again* http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060503/wr_nm/telecoms_ftc_dc_1 |
2006/4/21-25 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush, Finance/Investment] UID:42792 Activity:nil |
4/21 That's some pretty awesome fox polling there... http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_04/008661.php \_ Aww. They didn't have "Religion/Christian Morals" as an option in the list of reasons to disapprove of the President. |
2006/4/5-6 [Finance/Investment] UID:42680 Activity:nil |
4/1 Got this email from Etrade saying that based on my Etrade banking activities I'm now qualified as a special trader and can trade stocks for a very low price. "To continue your exclusive status beyond next quarter, just maintain a $50,000 combined balance in linked E*TRADE Securities and E*TRADE Bank accounts or execute 30 or more stock or options trades by the end of the quarter." Thirty stocks? What? Fuck Etrade Bank and fuck Etrade stocks. \_ Special deals for rich people and day traders. What's the big deal? \_ And if you want to transfer the money out of your account (i.e., close it) E-Trade will happily charge you a $100 transfer fee. Buyer beware. \_ I dumped etrade for scottrade/(datek->ameritrade) a few years ago. etrade is more expensive and service is worse, and they often screw things up. \_ E*Trade is better than some other brokerages out there. E*Trade is not that bad. Also, the offer above says OR. |
2006/3/30-31 [Politics/Domestic/Immigration, Reference/Law/Visa, Finance/Investment] UID:42535 Activity:nil |
3/29 http://weneedafence.com I personally don't care about the immigration issue but I'd like to buy stocks in companies that make fences. What are some companies I should look into? |
2006/3/27-29 [Finance/Investment] UID:42479 Activity:kinda low |
3/27 Why must interest rates increase by 1/4%? Why don't they just get it over with and hike it 1/2% at a time, or in the case of dot-com and real-estate bubble, hike it to the level that they think it should be more quickly? split up into three pieces split up into three pieces and Iran and Turkey is redrawing their borders:. \_ They don't have to increase by 1/4%. If they felt it were appropriate, they could increase it by more (or less, e.g. 1/8%). The Federal Reserve tries to `herd' (in the herding cats sense of the word) the economy by adjusting the supply of money. This requires kid gloves. If they cranked up interest rates by a larger value (say 1%), it could set of panics in financial markets which would have serious, likely unpleasant, ripple effects in the national and global economy. -dans \_ They also don't raise it all at once, because they need to keep the market offbalance. If they raised it 1% then the market would assume that it was all done and act accordingly. Monetary policy often works best when the market isn't sure what's coming. \_ These are not serious answers. I can recommend a book to you if you would like but I cannot write a motd entry on how the Fed works. a motd entry on how the Fed works. Consider this analogy: if you have 3 passengers in your car and your are coming up to a red light, eventhough everybody knows you are going to stop and could brace themeslves for a studden stop, you deaccelerate slowly. BTW, Milton Friedman also has a funny analogy about backseat driving and monetary policy. (google for Lerner, friedman, steering wheel monetary policy) \_ Au contraire. Market psychology is a very important reason why rates are not moved all at once. The market tends to overreact/underreact to major policy moves. That is *why* they accelerate/decelerate slowly. It's not just about avoiding shocks to the economy, but also managing market psychology. If you knew that tomorrow would be the last of the rate hikes then you'd behave differently than you would if you weren't sure of the final outcome. How often is it that anticipated rate hikes are already priced into the market? How does that compare to a sudden shift in policy? Which one moves the markets more and has a larger effect? Of course, it's not necessarily desirable to have a large effect (up or down) but neither is it desirable to have nil effect with policy moves. Monetary policy has a stronger effect when the market doesn't expect it. BTW, this is a good article: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200405202 \- that is not the only reason they react slowly. large change in the money supply has real effects, not just effects based on expectations. it is a long standing debate whether the fed should play this game and react with discretion or whether they should publish a formula and pretty much react in a deterministic fashion to other variables. the interest rate is not something announced like the price apple announces it will sell a computer at. it is the side effect of open mkt operations [for now i elide issues of defensive and dynmaic FOMC operations and discount rate and fed funds rate ... the fed has multiple competing goals after all, including real factors like growth and high employment, macro econ factors like i-rate and inflation/price stability, and then financial mkt issues: stability of mkt and FX stability (changes in i-rate in high K mobility world generates large in/out flows with effects on $ exchange rate ... not an issue when the fed got rolling, but big issue today). anyway, psychology and your theory of "rat expectations" may play a big role in the financial mkt areas, but the "real effects" are significant too. BTW, the Fed pretty much has an infinite budget, so if you want publications from them, the will send you a lot of interesting stuff for free. the SF Fed may be a good place for you real estate people to look at. i dont read the stuff any more, but that is something the traditionally have good analsysis of. BTW, speaking of Rat X on sloda, isnt aswan@sloda friends with either EPRESCOTT or TSARGENT? \_ I didn't mean to claim that rational expectations are the sole reason. They are one factor. A bunch of small rate hikes prove to be more effective than one hike of the same size. There are other reasons, of course. |
2006/3/21-22 [Finance/Investment] UID:42351 Activity:nil |
3/21 Okay, why is yahoo finance letting this Robert Kiyosaki guy be their columnist? His writing riles people which is kind of fun. But then this guy doesn't know if you owe a debt in US$, and US$ goes down in value, it's actually good for you, and he still goes to outlets to buy gold and silver when you can buy GLD: "The outlets that sell gold and silver I have visited are already low on inventory." Isn't that kind of embarassing for a supposed financial guru? No wonder people say he is a con man and he made all his money not through investing, but from giving investment advice. http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/2987?p=1 \_ Because Kiosaki is a financial wizard. Several years ago he started seminars that encouranged people to flip homes, lots and lots of homes. He started many investment clubs and spun off THOUSANDS of investment clubs in the country where people bought properties for the sole purpose of investment, and those who followed his advice did very well. To many new millionaires who followed his advice, he is a hero. People look up to Kiosaki because he is financial leader, a financial hero, a financial trendsetter. PS I attended his seminar last year and he said something to the effect that real estate is still hot in some areas but we gotta be looking for the next thing. You have to attend his other seminar to know what that is. Oh yeah, thanks for reminding me I need to register. -the next millionaire \_ Fuck you. People like you are the reason people like me buy land in remote places and stockpile weapons. \_ but it seems to me that if he's only encouraging people to get into gold and silver now, he's at best a financial follower as opposed to a trendsetter. \_ This kind of thing is usually evidence that the trend is almost over. I am selling my gold and silver stock. \_ Suze Orman gave some bad advice based on math that didn't work once all factors were accounted for. When I tried to call her on it, I couldn't find any way to contact her. These people are there for entertainment value, I suppose. \_ "These people" is rather dismissive, don't you think? There are certainly good financial columnists out there. It is true that Yahoo gets paid by you reading the article, not by you making money, so in some sense the corporation doesn't care if the advice is good. -tom \_ It's intended to be dismissive. Giving out bad financial advice and then making yourself unavailable for criticism or comment is irresponsible. There are people out there that consider 'these people' to be gurus and who take what they say at face value. It doesn't mean all their advice is bad, of course. \_ my point is that Suze Orman was irresponsible, not "financial columnists" as a class of people. The Motley Fool columnists, in particular, are quite accountable for their positions. -tom \_ I don't know if they are accountable, but many of their recent picks sucked big time. eg. snda, nile But I agree. There are some good columnists (eg. smartmoney columnists ain't bad). I even think Jim Cramer is pretty good. -op \_ Remember that it's always possible to do good analysis and still be wrong, especially in the short term. -tom |
2006/3/6-8 [Finance/Investment] UID:42110 Activity:moderate |
3/6 Where's Swami? We owe Swami a beer. "Housing Slowdown Ripples Through Economy" http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060306/ap_on_bi_ge/housing_slowdown \_ "There seems to be little concern that a much-touted housing bubble will lead to a collapse in sales and prices." \_ We need an equivalent of http://fuckedcompany.com \_ Which contradicts what a lot of other articles are saying, but whatever. I recommend http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com \_ it depends on what the meaning of "collapse" is \_ "Alex Barron, an analyst in San Francisco for JMP Securities, said builder stocks have been trading at relatively low multiples of their earnings since the late 1990s because investors always believed the strong housing market was too good to last." Investors kept saying, 'Next year housing will go down,'" Barron said. "I guess they're finally right." Tell us something we haven't been predicting (incorrectly) for a long time now. \_ Swami is not the "investors" this guys is talking about. Swami made just one specific prediction: peak in Q4 2005, nadir in Nov 2007. \_ Yeah, so he is late with his prediction. \_ So if I keep saying "oil > $80 barrel next year" every year, do I get a beer when it finally happens? \_ No, because you chose a specific number, which might make your prediction useful to someone. You'd have to say something more like "oil will be more expensive next year" to really match the brilliance of dim. -tom \_ warren buffet gave no specific number or date when he says he avoids tech, but he still comes out looking pretty good when the tech bubble bursts. his opinion, if followed, would've been useful for all those people who lost money. \_ Warren Buffett has never said to avoid tech. He said that *he* avoids tech because he doesn't understand it. (That is, he doesn't understand how to fairly value tech companies). And you know, if you bought tech any time from, oh, 1970 up through 1998, or from 2001 on, you're probably doing pretty well. -tom \_ yes, during the bubble years, warren buffet says he avoids tech. that's what I was saying. \_ What you're saying is a non sequiteur; Buffett is not making a prediction when he says he avoids tech. -tom \_ and I am just pointing out to you that what you accused dim of doing (not attaching a "specific number") is just what buffet does, which is a very reasonable thing to do. And it is also useful, since if you take what he is saying into consideration and reduced your exposure to tech, you would have emerged from the bubble in a better shape. \_ You're not paying attention. Buffett is not making a prediction, so of course he doesn't attach a number to his non-existent prediction. Please find a quote where Buffett tells *other people* to avoid tech. Buffett avoided tech in 1990, too, and if you invested in tech in 1990 you'd have done better than Buffett. -tom \_ You're not paying attention. Nobody claimed that Buffett was making a prediction. Go reread. Also, you can chart BRK-A against Nasdaq since 1990 and you will see BRK-A leading all the way except for a small approximately one year period centered around mid-2000. You should do some research so you don't continuously make wrong claims like the above or like "Median sale prices [of homes] go down in 4Q *every year*". around mid-2000. \_ "Buffett avoided tech in 1990, too, and if you invested in tech in 1990 you'd have done better than Buffett." Talking about ill-defined un-specific claims, the above fits the bill perfectly. \_ I didn't make any predictions. I just know the market has been overvalued for some time now. --dim \_ is that why it's gone up 40% in the past two years? \_ you're such an idiot \_ BTW, I read a Roper poll which said that 78% of investors feel homes are overvalued. This this swami those polled feel homes are overvalued, including 72% of those who already own a home. This swami guy isn't exactly out on a limb here. --dim |
2006/3/4-6 [Finance/Investment, Recreation/Travel/LasVegas] UID:42098 Activity:nil |
3/4 Bond to drive a Mondeo in Casino Royale: http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006100330,00.html |
2006/3/3-6 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:42094 Activity:nil |
3/3 ARMS and Subprime mortages increasing to record levels. %ARMS %subprime 2003 28% 9.9% 2004 48% 22.2% 2005 47% 24.3% http://tinyurl.com/ntg84 (wsj) In same link, greenback will fall 20% if OPEC switches crude currency to basket (US$, EURO, Yen, pound). \_ I guess we'll have to take your word for it since the link is behind a pay wall. \_ sweet! come on housing bubble!! |
2006/2/28-3/2 [Finance/Investment] UID:42030 Activity:nil 76%like:42024 |
2/28 New record of U.S. investment in foreign stock exchanges http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreign28feb28,0,5874122.story \_ welcome to the global economy. \_ Trading deficit of $900 billion in 2006 means that foreigners will have to buy up all of our assets unless they actually believe we intend to actually pay back our debts. \_ You're confusing the national debt and deficit with the trade deficit. Trade deficits do not automatically equal the U.S. owing foreigners money. |
2006/2/28-3/2 [Reference/Tax, Finance/Investment] UID:42028 Activity:low |
2/28 What's a good "next step up" from high-yield (4-5%) savings accounts if I want something to invest, say, $50k in and still keep it fairly liquid and still have little to no risk (i.e. I'm OK with !FDIC if it's a biggish institution and not too likely to fold). By "fairly liquid" I mean no more than a year lock-in. \_ I have some I-bonds that are pulling in 6-7% a year. I bought those a few years ago though, and I think they've been dropping the yield in recent years. the yield in recent years. Oh, and they're fed tax free too. http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/ibonds_glance.htm \_ Don't you have to pay taxes when they adjust the principal? \_ Woops. I got it the other way around. No state tax, and fed tax deferred until either bond redeemed or annually--your choice--and not on adjusting the principal. \_ No, that is for TIPS. \_ I bonds deduct 3 months interest if you sell before 5 years, so that's a minus for the op since he wants less than 1 year lock-in. \_ probably more risk than you would like but I like FAX (asian bonds close end fund) recommended by Bill Gross (king of bonds). It yields 6.87% and is currently 4.68% below its net asset value. \_ 6.87 taxable w/ risk vs. 6.73 state-tax free no-risk (I Bond).. meh. What does "4.68% below..." mean? \_ well, I Bond yield is inflation dependent and may go down, so it is not risk free. 4.68% below nav means that the fund is trading at a value that is 4.68% below the total value of the bonds it holds. of course FAX also has exchange rates risk. you should probably only buy it if you think the dollar is going to fall, or you want to diversify your currency risks. I personally think the dollar will fall, so I especially like FAX. In the scenario that FAX returns to NAV, and dollar falls, I could get 15% return. - I bond holder who suggested I bonds on the motd a few months ago. \_ I'm a big fan of FAX too. I'm curious though, where are you getting the "*currently* 4.68% below its net asset value"? I know they mention it periodically, but is there some way to check at any given point (they have way too many holdings to calculate it yourself) -crebbs \_ http://www.etfconnect.com it's down to 4.35% now. I recently found out that IFN is 30% above NAV. I am going to sell IFN and get MINDX or maybe IBN (ICICI) to stay exposed to India. IIF is also 15-20% above NAV so it's not much help. \_ Funny, I was just yesterday showing a buddy of mine a comment that IFN was 30% over NAV and that he should short it. How do they manage a 9% dividend at that pemium? are they really holding assest that pay well over 9% divedends on average?? Anyway, thanks for the over 9% dividends on average?? Anyway, thanks for the link. Email me and tell me who you are if you don't mind being bugged once in a while about this kind of thing. -crebbs \_ feel free. good for me to have someone to bounce one's investment ideas off too. I have a rather patchy record with shorting. I recently tried shorting GM; it promptly appreciated 20% but later fell back, so I am now even. Do you think I should be glad I didn't lose money and run, or keep the short? - ecchang \_I would be terrified of shorting GM. The funds seem to be sticking with them. The gubmnt could come to their rescue (again). Despite their dire straights and massive debt, I think that's a scary play. But I pretty much only take short positions in combo with long. For exmple I shorted 3dfx and went long with NVDA back in the day. </brag> -crebbs \_ my thinking with regard to GM is that there is something fundamentally wrong with GM that cannot be fixed without going into bankruptcy. yes there may be short term gains but it won't last. question is whether one can hold through those gains. But you may be right, the risks are pretty high, especially given how far GM has fallen already. NVDA is another of my bad shorts. I shorted it around 21 and it went up to 26 at which point, I gave up. After I gave up, it dropped all the way to 10. This was in mid 2004, I think, when ATI is kicking NVDA's butt when NVDA is having production and heat issues with their chips. What's worse is that I then missed NVDA's runup from 10 to the current 48. ugh! - ecchang \_ How about T-Bills? If I read this right, you can go in for a month and make > 4% state-tax free? Am I reading that wrong? What's the catch? -op |
2006/2/28 [Finance/Investment] UID:42024 Activity:nil 76%like:42030 |
2/28 New record in investments in foreign stock exchanges http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreign28feb28,0,5874122.story |
2006/2/25-27 [Finance/Investment] UID:42005 Activity:moderate |
2/24 Another case of rich fat cats raping your average Americans. Unregulated free market capitalism at its best!: http://tinyurl.com/zo2qq (buyout firms raping hardworking americans) \_ You know, it's really old news when Hollywood has made films about it 10 years ago. \_ I applaud Forbes magazine for standing up to their corporate masters. I think the WSJ news section had a similar article a few weeks ago. There was probably an accompanying rant in the WSJ editorial page about the poor oppressed private equity firm. Anyway it's just another reason I welcome our new financial robotic overlords. \_ Hey smartass, this is a new and bigger wave. \_ Don't be an idiot. This is a new and bigger wave. And the guys in the 80s don't gut the companies they acquire, put all the money in their pockets, and let the companies go backrupt, screwing the employess and stealing from the creditors. This is outright thievery. Articles condemning it must be widely read, and until the problem is fixed, we must continue to pursue it and not let the crooks get away with it, just like we don't let crooks like Ken Lay, Jeff Skilling and Bernard Ebbers get away. Are you related to one of these crooks yourself? the companies go backrupt. \_ Ken Lay et al were found through the judicial process to have broken laws. If these buy out firms have acted illegally, then by all means they should be prosecuted. So has any of these firms been charged for their misdeeds? \_ Dividend recap schemes are pretty old news too. Here's a BofA article about it http://csua.org/u/f3b from a couple years ago. \_ June 2004? that's relatively recent. \_ June 2004? that's relatively recent. But what has dividend recap got to do with the discussion above? |
2006/2/23 [Finance/Investment] UID:41971 Activity:nil |
2/23 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060223/ap_on_bi_ge/family_finances Average American Family Income Declines. Bushconomy at work! |
2006/2/21-23 [Finance, Finance/Investment] UID:41937 Activity:nil |
2/21 "The official poverty level is $19,307 for a family of four, $12,334 for a family of two. But the calculation includes only cash income before deductions for taxes. It excludes capital gains and it does not take into account accumulated wealth or assets, such as a home." http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/21/politics/main1331693.shtml \_ it depends on what the meaning of "poor" is "the bureau said the rate might be as high as 19.4 percent, or as low as 8.3 percent, depending on how income and basic living costs were defined" |
2006/2/18-19 [Finance/Investment] UID:41919 Activity:kinda low |
2/17 George Soros is a loser. He made big money just one time but has made countless mistakes afterwards. Anyways, he predicts a huge recession in 2007 that'll make the late 80s recession look tame. Let's see if he's wrong. Again. \_ Let's assume he's right. What does he want us to do? What can we do? What's the best way to profit? \_ Buy land with access to fresh water, and lots of guns. \_ short GOOG!!! short everything!!1! \_ He wants you to take your money out of the US to make it a self fulfilling prophecy so he can make another few billion in exchange for providing no return value to the world. \_ If you sell all your stocks and buy I-Bonds or something like that, you should be able to ride it out fine. \_ nah soros made big money quite a few times. |
2006/2/14-15 [Finance/Investment] UID:41847 Activity:moderate |
2/14 Poll: favorite stock that you own. Must have market cap > $200Mil: (ETFs okay): \_ GOOG: . \_ CRXL: . \_ MRVL, MSPD \_ WAG: . \_ EFII: . \_ AAPL: . \_ EWZ: . \_ AMD: . \_ CSCO: . \_ Yay, its back to 1999. Can we at least wait for the housing bubble to burst before ushering in the next stock one? \_ if you hate bubbles, you can always do the hedge fund long short market neutral thing. \_ if you hate bubbles, you can always try the hedge fund long short market neutral strategy. |
2006/2/6-7 [Finance/Investment] UID:41717 Activity:moderate |
2/6 My brother got married recently and they insisted they didn't want anything and refused to register anywhere. Obviously I have to get something, but since they're poor the most practical thing would be cash. If I have lots of disposable income and make $X/yr, what is a good amount for a wedding present? \_ make an Indecent proposal. \_ $X \_ Not knowing any of you, I'd say a few hundred bucks. Don't shame them by giving a large amount. By not accepting anything they're saying to the world, "This is true love, we're not getting married to scam you out of some gifts" \_ agree. couple hundred bucks is good enough. anything more than that is going to be too offensive... unless you sure he doesn't mind. \_ how poor are they? i'm sure there's something that he could use, be it a DSL subscription, or a computer, or porn DVDs (being a computer nerd, it makes sense to get him those things) or even something like repairs for his beat up corolla. That way, you're not giving him charity (which he already said he doesn't want), you're thinking about him (and his wife, i guess). you could even get him something like a Safeway gift card, and say it's because you didn't know what kind champagne he liked. \_ Miss Manners says that's it's rude to tell people that you don't want gifts; it's the giver's choice what to give. If your brother wants to be insulted at generosity, that's his problem. -tom \_ Who cares about MM? What does Emily Post have to say? \_ Ironic that you'd be a MM reader. \_ Have you read Miss Manners at all? She does the best smack-downs of any columnist this side of Savage Love. -tom \_ Yes, I have. As I said. Ironic. \_ give them stock or a savings bond. i got the latter several times as a kid and it's good karma. \_ A small quantity of stock is just a pain in the as for somebody who isnt an invester. Just give cash if you are somebody who isnt an investor. Just give cash if you are thinking this route or a gift certificate to Amazon. In fact just ignore all the other advice except maybe the trip if you have a good idea there and get them Amazon. \_ that makes a lot of sense. i like amazon certificates. -pp \- yes i know that. i get an AMAZONG CREDIT for all my associate who have new children. \_ A good gift is a trip somewhere. Where are they honeymooning? \_ If they're serious about not receiving gifts and you're serious about giving, you can always donate money to some reasonable charity in their name. \_ give them stock or something. i never did something like that, but it sounds like it'd work great if i were into that. savings bonds are for kids, but might be appropriate if you think they're addiction-prone or won't know how to sell stock. they'll probably realize they can take you out for a nice dinner if they ever sell. \_ I got married 6 months ago and suggested people do this. -bz \_ How about just taking your brother out, telling him over a beer that you'd like to do something nice for them (it is possible to tell someone that you are financially well off and would like to share in a non-arrogant way) and just ask him straight-out in private what he'd like? And Miss Manners can bite my ass. -John \_ He lives 300 miles away, makes himself difficult to contact, and has been delicately asked this a few times already. -op \_ Just a thought -- if they intend to procreate, and depending on how much you want to spend, consider opening a trust fund (cash, bonds, whatever) for the kid. -John \_ A few casino chips \_ Toaster! |
2006/2/3-7 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:41688 Activity:nil |
2/3 US wage growth not keeping pace with inflation http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20060203/ts_csm/apocket \_ CEOs wages are, everyone else doesn't deserve it. Work harder, peons! |
2006/2/1-3 [Finance/Investment] UID:41659 Activity:kinda low |
2/1 Hello, I used to have Fidelity 401K when I worked at this company. The plan had about 20 not so spectacular mutual funds. I'm now working at a place where they use 403B and have over 100 mutual funds... also using Fidelity. I'm tempted to transfer ALL of the 401K over to my new 403B plan which includes specific foreign, utility, and energy mutual funds. Is this a good/bad idea? Any advice? ok thx. \- helo, pp is not me. ok tnx. \_ you can transfer to an IRA from a brokerage. But be careful to do it correctly or you will get a tax hit. Fidelity can convert it to a regular IRA where you can choose any funds that Fidelity sells. \_ You can transfer to any brokerage. Make sure you do a direct transfer where the money goes directly from the 401k to the brokerage, or you may get a tax hit like the above poster mentioned. Money I manage myself consistently beat the meagre selections my 401k offers by 20 percentage points, so I couldn't wait to transfer the money out everytime I change job, which unfortunately hasn't been very often. \_ My company's 401K plan has a "fund" that lets individuals choose what to invest on with their money in the accounts. You can short GOOG or buy bonds or whatever. \_ You usually cannot short or buy derivatives in a retirement account. I don't know any brokerages that allow this. \_ <DEAD>Brownco.com<DEAD> allowed you to sell covered calls in IRA 5 yrs ago when I was investigating. --oj \_ They don't now. |
2006/1/31-2/1 [Finance/Investment] UID:41629 Activity:low |
1/31 http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20060131/cm_usatoday/greenspansrecordnotsorosy Like I said, fuck Greenspan. \_ Jim Bunning? You must not have been paying attention to his re-election. Check out http://csua.org/u/euy [Wapo]. I wouldn't use him as an authority if I were you. \_ He is responsible for the stock market bubble, soaring home prices and record consumer debt because he was to quick to raise rates? \_ Greedy people with too much money and not enough brains are responsible for the stock bubble. Consumer debt is the fault of consumers (shocking, eh?) while rising home prices are the end result of many factors coming together such as the drop in the market, speculation, low rates, demographics, green lining, and probably a bunch of other things. \_ While consumer debt is the fault of consumers, yes, there are plenty of enablers out there. Not giving beer to alcoholics seems like a straightforward idea. How about not extending easy credit to the irresponsible? \_ Yeah, prohibition sure worked out great. And so's that "war on drugs". |
2006/1/29-31 [Science/GlobalWarming, Finance/Investment] UID:41589 Activity:nil |
1/28 Debate on Climate Shifts to Issue of Irreparable Change http://csua.org/u/etm |
2006/1/27 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush, Finance/Investment] UID:41565 Activity:nil |
1/27 http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=1548547 "The Department of Commerce report showed that the nation's economy grew at an anemic 1.1 percent -- the worst performance in three years." U.S. GDP growth (from preceding period) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 2.7 2.2 2.4 0.2 2003 1.7 3.7 7.2 3.6 2004 4.3 3.5 4.0 3.3 2005 3.8 3.3 4.1 1.1 |
2006/1/26-29 [Finance, Finance/Investment] UID:41559 Activity:low |
1/26 New report looks at where the growth in incomes of high-income families has outpaced that of middle- and low-income households. http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/25/news/economy/income_gap \_ The rich get richer faster than the middle and lower classes. And? \_ The aggregation of wealth at the top is driving the middle class into the working poor category. \_ Aggregation? No. Middle class people making less compared to cost of living (housing and medical in particular) combined with a chronic inability to stop spending money on crap they don't need drives down middle class real adjusted worth. It can't last and it isn't surprising. |
2006/1/19-21 [Finance/Investment] UID:41433 Activity:moderate |
1/20 http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/060117/13793.html 4/10 Playboy models outperform 11705/11739 equity mutual fund managers for picking out better stocks. \_ All that says is that the companies that Playboy models know are doing well at the moment. Let's continue the experiment for 10 years and see who's ahead. (Not that I'm a fan of fund managers, but the conclusions here are silly.) \_ Mutual fund managers are not free to choose whatever companies they think will do best. Fund manager can only choose companies within the fund's sector. A real estate fund can't buy MSFT, for example. The playboy models don't have this limitation. \_ I didn't know there are so many PB models that aren't blonde. The Playboy models don't have this limitation. \_ If you thought about this a little bit, you'd realize how silly this theory is. \_ Care to explain? \_ From a description of Magellan's strategy: "Normally invests primarily in common stocks of domestic and foreign issuers. Invests in either 'growth' stocks or 'value' stocks or both." I guess the bunnies can invest in non-growth, over-priced stocks and Magellan might not. Even not knowing any specific example, you should realize that if picking whatever from wherever is a superior way to invest, then there would be funds to exploit that. \_ Morningstar categorizes FMAGX as large blend. "While the investment objective stated in a fund's prospectus may or may not reflect how the fund actually invests, the Morningstar category is assigned based on the underlying securities in each portfolio." \_ The category is descriptive rather prescriptive, \_ The category is descriptive rather than prescriptive, which is exactly what Morningstar said. \_ Even not knowing any specific example, you should realize that if the Playboy models really can do better than the mutual fund managers out there, they would all become mutual fund managers. \_ Yes. However, the original claim was not that the bunnies were necessarily better pickers but that they had more freedom in choosing stocks. Therefore, your point, while valid, does not apply. Whereas showing that non-specifically targeted mutual funds should and do exist does apply. \_ I didn't know there are so many PB models that aren't blond. \_ I don't think the all of the fund managers of the 11739 funds have \_ Almost none of them are. Hair dye. \_ I guess dyeing blond doesn't make one stupid, unlike natural blond. \_ I don't think all of the fund managers of the 11739 funds have Harvard MBAs. \_ Long-term everyone reverts to the mean, unless you have insider information. \_ The fund contestants are "all funds listed on Morningstar". How are the model contestands picked? |
2006/1/11-12 [Finance/Investment] UID:41335 Activity:moderate |
1/10 http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=SNROF.PK Hello Kitty, Hello Profit! \_ What does "PK" in ticker symbols stand for? I notice that when companies go down, their ticker symbols are appended with ".PK". \_ That means they're traded on "the pink sheets"; not listed on a major exchange. -tom \_ Hmm, in Cantonese "PK" stands for "Poke Kai" which is a much better description of those companies. :-))) |
2006/1/10-12 [Finance, Finance/Investment] UID:41320 Activity:very high |
1/10 dim-- 19 floor high rise building in the middle of the city, starting price: $1.5 mil. All sold out before they're even finished: http://www.thecalifornianonwilshire.com Here's a data point for you. All the 1 bdrm high-rise condos in this area start at $600K. Still think the city is full of poor people? \_ Or just go to Miami and drive up and down the coast. All those condos. \_ Which city in "Still think the city is full of poor people?" are you talking about? \_ which city has a notable street called wilshire? \_ That's my point. The "city" in the housing thread below refers to SF. refers to SF. -- PP \_ Someone who honestly does not know that there are more rich people than poor in San Francisco is not worth having a discussion with. \_ Really? Here's the household income breakdown according to the 2000 Census: $10K- 9.8% $10K-$14.9K 5.0% $15K-$24.9K 8.5% $100K-$149.9K 13.2% $150K-$199.9K 5.3% $200K+ 6.1% What's your definition for rich and poor? It's not at all obvious to me there are more rich than poor in San Francisco (I'm not sure $100K is really rich here, but $25K is pretty damn poor). You might also see http://www.sfbg.com/News/34/34/34stat.html \_ The median income for a household in the city is $55,221, and the median income for a family is $63,545 one of the highest in the United States at 15th place overall and 3rd in a single large city. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco%2C_California 74k in poverty: http://tinyurl.com/a3ld4 By your own (outdated) numbers, 280k making twice the national median, 100k making 3X. By your own (outdated) numbers, 180k making twice the national median, 82k making 3X. \_ Sorry bub, but the median is a terrible measure for the point you're trying to make (which, I have to admit is pretty darned stupid). Train harder, grasshopper. \_ Yes, if the city is called thecalifornianonwilshire, then it has more rich people than poor. \_ Wilshire and a couple blocks east of Westwood Blvd is a prime location, not like the overpriced downtown lofts -long-time L.A. resident more rich people than poor. If you are living in the County of Los Angeles, then ~35% of the households make less than $30K and ~18% make more than $100K. Now, I'm guessing most of the $100K income types are not buying those $1.5M condos. ~10% make $150K or more. Maybe that's the target demographic. \_ Yes, the city is full of poor people. Then again, so is the country. If anything, this data point proves my point, which is that the quality of living in the city sucks unless you are a multi-millionaire. $600K for a one bedroom condo?! Do you want to lookup how much a house with a backyard, a FDR, and a family room costs in the same area? Which do more people desire based on that? \_ yes I looked up. All the single family homes in the area start at $1.25 mil. This is an area south of Belair, west of Beverely Hills, and east of Brentwood. By the way they're all old houses that were built in the 30s and 40s, and even the $1.25 mil homes look crappy. \_ There are some of us who don't want a huge house, and want the things you can only get by living in the city. Why can't you just accept this? I'm not the person attacking the 'burbs or the people that live in them, by the way. \_ Which is why this whole "debate" is retarded. It seems to me that part of the point of having money is doing whatever the hell you want. For some people that's 10 acres of giant plastic gazebos, and for some people that's a penthouse overlooking central park--but the implication that having money somehow implies a specific lifestyle and that the money somehow implies a specifici lifestyle and that the only reason you'd do anything different is that you can't afford it is just dumb. \_ I have no problem accepting that people have different preferences. What I have a problem with is the idea that 'rich' people prefer the city and that 'suburban' people are all putzes with no sense. However, whether you live in the city or the suburbs, a single family residence is more attractive to more people than a condo or apartment is. Key here: more != all. \_ Uh, you are twisting things 100% from the original assestions that started the debate. Some suburbanite claimed that no one preferred high density living and that everyone wanted a large suburban home. Remember this? \_ Can you read? Most people prefer a SFR to high-density housing, even in the cities. You can confirm this by comparing relative prices. "It you stepped back from the class warfare language and pre-judgement of those with a life style you can't afford, you'd soon realise that "living" in a 650 square foot apartment isn't living. You look at something you might never be able to afford and call it irrational. People who have it can't imagine how you could stand to live in a rat hole apartment. High density housing sucks to live in and going skiing a few times a year or having a nice park nearby doesn't make up for it." |
2006/1/10 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:41316 Activity:nil |
1/8 Dear mature home owners, maybe I'm young and stupid, but I want to know some of the justifications for your irrational needs. What exactly is the purpose of a formal dining room? My mom has \_ Some of us have a lot of cocktail & dinner parties. -John a 4500 sq ft house and the formal dining room has been used twice in an entire decade. Secondly, what is the purpose of having a separate living room used for meeting guests and a family room? My mom's living room is rarely used and is there mostly for looks-- her guests usually go directly to the family room since it has a nice TV and is closer to the kitchen. Lastly, what exactly is the purpose of a large backyard with lots of grass when it is often used less than once a month? \_ I can tell you that my sister spent about $60,000 on her fancy front yard with gazeebo, statue, malibu lights, waterfountain, and other things. One time I went to her backyard and found moldy, deformed boxes which were once malibu light boxes where the workers left them a few months ago. I asked her about them and she said she hadn't noticed them. The only time she'd go to the backyard was when she had guests, so she could show off her fancy McBackyard. Oh and by the way she has a 4 bedroom McMansion and the only people living in it is... her. Suburbia is a total waste of land and resources, but as you already know, people are stupid. \_ Geez man, she lives in a 4500sq ft house. Of course there's a lot of wasted space. You could comfortably house 3 families in that much space. As the above poster says, it's all just conspicuous consumption. -jrleek \_ A formal dining room is useful if you throw a lot of dinner parties or have old-fashioned sit down dinners as a family. Otherwise it's just for show. \_ It's also good if you have big multiplayer board games. \_ Or have poker games with lots of people. \_ I always thought the formal dining is there so you can sell your house to people who want a formal dining room. Me, I converted mine into an office, and it works great. I'll deconvert back into a dining room when I sell. The backyard is there for your kids. In fact, a friend is moving specifically for a larger backyard so his kids can have more play room. The larger yard is also great for more buffer space between you and your neighbors. \_ These are artifacts of older housing concepts. Formal dining rooms just used to be the room you ate in, before the invention of the breakfast nook. Living rooms were styled after parlors and located in the front of the house to avoid tramping through a cluttered house, while family rooms were invented for the "back of the house". The more informal family and social life became and the less people entertained, the less need for these distictions. Large backyards were important because of a lack of green space (parks), to allow for entertaining, and to boost the ego. Land is still land. \_ It is simple: having nice things and lots of space gives people a warm n fuzzy feeling. There is nothing irrational about it. If you stepped back from the class warfare language and pre-judgement of those with a life style you can't afford, you'd soon realise that "living" in a 650 square foot apartment isn't living. You look at something you might never be able to afford and call it irrational. People who have it can't imagine how you could stand to live in a rat hole apartment. High density housing sucks to live in and going skiing a few times a year or having a nice park nearby doesn't make up for it. \_ I could afford to live in a large house in the suburbs or a smaller condo in the city and I chose the city. I could even afford a larger place in San Francisco if I wanted it, but I don't. Not even's concept of self worth is tied up in their over consumption. I prefer high density housing and so do many people. Get off your high horse. \_ I think the person on the high horse is the OP. I like having a FDR and a large back yard. I go out in the yard every single day, because I like to garden. When I entertain, I either entertain outside or in my FDR and living room. The family room is upstairs and is sort of a 'junk room' I don't invite guests to. In short, just because a few people are putzes with more space than they use doesn't mean everyone choosing a house over high-density living is. I think 4500 square feet is excessive, but then I couldn't afford that if I took out 3 mortgages. \_ I never said anything about self worth. Don't project. It is entirely about personal space and comfort for those who have. I'm glad you have chosen to pay more to get less in the city. That is a wise investment. Actually, most of the people in high density housing are the poor. I wouldn't really call being poor a "choice" they made. \_ Tell all the people living in South Beach, Telegraph Hill, Nob Hill and Russian Hill that they are poor. In most of the world the most desirable places to live are in the city center, where density allows for all the advantages of urban living. And is your "that is a wise investment" line intended to be sarcasm? It is hard to tell over ascii whether you are being serious or not. \_ Well, the pp said "most of the people in high density housing are the poor". IOW, we're counting heads here. So, in SF, are there more people in expensive areas like Nob Hill or in poor areas like the Tenderloin? Are there more expensive neighborhoods or poor neighboorhoods? Are there more rich people or poor people? They can pack a lot of people into projects, and it'll take a large area of luxe apts and such to balance the head count. - !pp \_ Rich people live in spacious penthouses in the middle of the city, not shitty ratholes. Then they fly out to the Hamptons or Aspen or whatever on the weekends to unwind. While Manhattan is expensive, the *average* apartment in Manhattan is a dump - unless you are rich, of course. \_ I grew up in a big city where 95% of the people lived in apartments, so I am used to it Living in a big house would be nice but living beyond my needs seems wasteful. I finally bought a townhouse just so I can host my church fellowship gatherings at my place. Other friends have bigger houses, but they are out of the way, whereas my place is centrally located so everyone can come without travelling too far. - yet another poster \_ You could afford more if you weren't tithing your 10% \_ sure. I had not been tithing a full pre-tax 10% before last year. Then I decided to start doing it early last year after quite a bit of struggling, and within 2 months, my stocks did so well that the capital gains would be enough to cover 3 full years of tithing. Just goes to show how small we are and how great God is. We tithe because we should, not because God would bless us because of it, but in regard to tithing, Bible does says: "Test me in this, and see if I will not throw open the floodgates of heaven and pour out so much blessing that you will not have room enough for it." Malachi 3:8-12 http://tinyurl.com/bz5d4 Note that I am not saying that Christians have to offer 10% pre-tax. It's not a matter of following a rule, or of judging people based on that. It's a matter of your heart and love of the Lord, and love of your brothers and sisters and fellow men. \_ I think you are a false Mormon. Jesus quite clearly teaches in the Bible that your faith in God has nothing to do with your material wealth. Unless the book of Moroni has a few extra chapters not being shared with the class. \_ I am not a Mormon. \_ So, you came into extra money and didn't tithe on that? naughty boy. \_ Like I said, it's not a matter of following rules. For capital gains, for me, since it's for generating an income post-retirement, I will just continue tithing that income when I retire, and leave 10% of what I have when I die. \_ Why don't you tithe it to me next year, and cut out the wasteful middlemen? \_ You are funny, but I don't think you have a need for it. \_ Ever checked out the LDS Church balance sheets? I can assure you I need it a lot more than it does. I'd even share it with some other sodans. \_ they make those public? \_ I was glib... estimated assets are... large. ($tens of billions) \_ if you want some, just join their church. \_ My church is a small Lutheran church. \_ You started tithing and your stocks went up. Do you actually think those are related? Just think of how many people God would be hurting if he made _your_ stocks go up to reward you. \_ Why would my stocks going up necessarily hurt anyone. The stock that went up most is doing vaccine and antibodies production research for diseases like flu, ebola, malaria, west nile, rabies, etc. \_ I don't think that the presence of a dining room in most homes is that controversial. I, for one, strongly believe that meals should be normally consumed in the company of your relatives at a dining table and not in the living room or in the bedroom in front of TV. In many homes, the dining room is just an extension of either the kitchen or the living room which is fine. However, having separate family and living rooms seems to be less common (and less useful) indeed. |
2006/1/6-9 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:41271 Activity:low |
1/6 We survived the great bear market of 2000-2002. Congratulations. \_ and by the skin of our teeth. Bears are scary! \_ What do you mean by survived? My previous company went under in 2001. \_ though you suffered, you are still here, healthy, and earning a decent income (I hope). \_ nope, took a pay cut to find a job in 2002. Gonna change jobs soon though. \_ Prepare for the great housing collapse of 2006-8. \_ I already have lawnchairs and a case of beer, if that's what you mean. I intend to bask in shadenfreude. you mean. I intend to bask in schadenfreude. \_ didn't they say they were going to stop increasing interest rates soon? \_ Greenspam has been making noise about 1 more increase and then seeing what happens. In other news, the housing bust is here. In the last quarter the rate of increase in the price of housing crashed down to 6%. \_ Greenspan retired. And, uh, the rate of increase slowing to 6% annually isn't exactly a bust. -tom \_ Uh, the rate of increase slowing to 6% annually isn't exactly a bust. -tom \_ Sarcasm detectors... ACTIVATE! |
12/24 |