Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2007:March:27 Tuesday <Monday, Wednesday>
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2007/3/27-29 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:46105 Activity:nil
3/26    BUT....BUT.... BUT REAL ESTATE ALWAYS GOES UP!!!!!
        \_ Yes.  It does.  Over time.  No one with a multi-decade investment
           time line ever lost money on real estate.  If you bought swamp
           _______________________________________/
           \_ The same is true of the stock market.  Read a random walk down
              wall street.  Over any 20 year time span, including one where
              you invest on the eve of the great depression, the stock market
              has averaged at least 20% annual returns after inflation.  Read
              a random walk down wall street. -dans
              \_ 20% after inflation? I think not. Try more like 7%. -ausman
                 \_ mea culpa. -dans
           land, that's your problem.  Land ownership is the traditional
           way to wealth going back to the start of history.  The other way
           is military conquest of the world but I doubt you have a personal
           army.
           \_ Is that true?  I remember a time when Tokyo real estate
              bubbled to truly absurd values.  If you bought at the wrong
              time I think you may have failed to beat inflation over a
              30 year period.
              \_ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble
              \_ Yes, it's true.  If you buy over priced swamp land you're
                 going to get burned.  Doesn't matter if the swamp land is in
                 Florida or Tokyo.  There's always more people, there's always
                 less land.
           \_ I'm pretty sure you've qualified that statement so much that an
              equivelent statement could be made for stocks.  "No one has ever
              lost money in a multi-decade investment in a well diversified
              portfolio."  Is that not true as well?
              \_ Not equivalent--key diff is "diversified".  You could easily
                 lose money in real estate in selected markets, even long term.
           \_ I think that land ownership has been the traditional way to
              store and transfer wealth. The traditional ways to create
              wealth have been trade and military conquest (which is just
              taking someone else's wealth).
              \_ I did mention conquest.  Trade is another way but requires
                 more effort and skill than sitting on land and waiting.
2007/3/27-29 [Uncategorized] UID:46106 Activity:nil
3/26    Is there a place in SF that sells kettlebells?
2007/3/27-29 [Reference/Law/Court, Reference/Military] UID:46107 Activity:kinda low
3/26    "I support the First Amendment right to carry and bear arms," - Rudy
        Giuliani, on Sean Hannity's radio show.
        \_ Are there any other ultra-dense cities in the world
           where it is legal to carry guns?
        \_ Maybe he's trying to make the point that the pen is mightier than
           the sword!
           \_ only if said pen is stuck into the neck
              \- how would you like a pencil in your neck?
                 get off bob dole's lawn.
                 --bdole
                 \_ ???
        \_ Thus far, the D.C. Cir. has little company in its holding that
           the 2d enumerates two rights, one for the states re militias,
           and one for the people. But no court has held that this this
           personal right is incorporated against the states.
           Maybe "Rudy" thinks the personal right would get more mileage
           in the courts if one were to claim that it was based on
           associational freedoms, "free exercise" rights (particularly
           if one was a sikh) or "expressive" political speech rights,
           all of which receive strict scrutiny and are incorporated
           against the states via the 14th.
           Or he just misspoke 1st for 2d.
           \_ "Rudy" misspoke?  Anyway....  If the USSC rules that the 2nd
              does mean 'personal right' to carry a weapon, will you accept
              that or come back and complain that BUSH's court has destroyed
              the USC?
              \_ If my comments conveyed the message that I believe the D.C.
                 Cir. incorrectly decided that the 2d enumerates a personal
                 right and a state right, I apologize. I think that the D.C.
                 Cir. correctly decided that the 2d enumerates a personal
                 right.
                 I would completely support a USSC decision finding that
                 (1) the 2d enumerates a personal right; and
                 (2) this right was incorporated against the states via
                     the 14th.
                 Finding  a personal right w/o incorporation is, in my view,
                 insufficient b/c the states would remain free to regulate
                 arms. Since the 7th's jury trial in civil cases hasn't been
                 incorporated, conceivably the 2d's personal right may not be
                 either.
                 \_ Thanks for clarifying.
2007/3/27-29 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iraq] UID:46108 Activity:high
3/26    War Nerd reviews 300 and Victor Hansen
        http://www.exile.ru/2007-March-23/war_nerd.html
        \_ Spot on, thanks for this.
           \- one point about this: yeah, athens should be given their
              due in the case of the persian wars, but if you are going to
              talk about contemporary lessons, the pel war is much more
              relevant. and there the lesson is: eventhough the "athenian
              way of life" was far more appealing than the spartan, athenian
              high handedness and power was a greater threat to many of
              their neighbors. nobody is inspired by north korea, but
              NK doesnt affect say how their govt wants to spend their tax
              dollars [anti-drug measures, ip enforcement etc]. the pel
              war ushers in "the fall of the athenian empire". Let's hope
              Iraq is not America's "Sicily" ... "the athenians responded
              first in anger and then in fear. first they lashed out at th
              politcians who had proposed and argued for the Sicilian
              expeditions (Thycydides bitterly remarks, "as if they had
              not voted for it by themselves"); the were furious with the
              seers who had predicted success. Next, they grieved over men
              lost in Sicily. Finally, they feared for their own safety
              when they calculated their own losses and te enemy's gains ...
              Athens' allies ... would not surely rebel ... they exaggerated
              the enemy's capacity to take effective action, but they had good
              reason for concern over the condition of Athens and its ability
              to carry on the war. The most obvious problem was manpower ..."
              --Donald Kagan, via psb
           \- one point about this: yeah, athens should be given their due in
              the case of the persian wars, but if you are going to talk about
              contemporary lessons, the pel war is much more relevant. and
              there the lesson is: eventhough the "athenian way of life" was
              far more appealing than the spartan, athenian high handedness
              and power was a greater threat to many of their neighbors.
              nobody is inspired by north korea, but NK doesnt affect say how
              their govt wants to spend their tax dollars [anti-drug measures,
              ip enforcement, susidies etc]. the pel war ushers in "the fall
              of the athenian empire". Let's hope Iraq is not America's
              "Sicily" ... "the Athenians responded first in anger and then in
              fear. first they lashed out at th politcians who had proposed
              and argued for the Sicilian expeditions (Thycydides bitterly
              remarks, "as if they had not voted for it by themselves"); the
              were furious with the seers who had predicted success. Next,
              they grieved over men lost in Sicily. Finally, they feared for
              their own safety when they calculated their own losses and te
              enemy's gains ...  Athens' allies ... would now surely rebel
              ... they exaggerated the enemy's capacity to take effective
              action, but they had good reason for concern over the condition
              of Athens and its ability to carry on the war. The most obvious
              problem was manpower ..."
              --Donald Kagan, via psb [see http://www.amazon.com/dp/0801499844]
              \_ So you think that if the US decides to pull out from Iraq and
                 the country falls to chaos, our allies (UK, Israel, Canada,
                 Germany, etc) are going to turn on us and attack?  What?
                 \_ We have already lost some of our Cheese-Eating Surrender
                    Monkey allies, but we are likely to lose more.
                    \_ Which allies?  And have they turned on us a la Athens
                       and are now gearing up to attack us?
                       \_ France, Turkey, Egypt, to a lesser extent
                          the EU and Saudi Arabia. No, they are probably not
                          gearing up to attack us, but they will co-operate
                          less with us in the future and are already lining
                          up alliances with our rivals. So we are definitely
                          in a weaker position geopolitically. I am surprised
                          that this is news to you.
                          \_ France: independent at best.  The ultimate self-
                                interested nation.  (I've no problem with that,
                                it is just how they are).
                             Egypt: An ally?  Are you nuts?  We pay them a few
                                billion a year to not attack Israel.  They're
                                a cold war era 'our bastards are better than
                                their bastards' dictatorship who has a piss
                                poor record of supporting the US at the UN (for
                                example).
                             Turkey: a matter of self-interest.  They have
                                Kurdish terrorists/freedom-fighters who want to
                                break away and a free Kurdistan in northern
                                Iraq is the last thing they want to see.  Are
                                they kicking us out of the country?  Are they
                                asking us to do anything in particular?  What
                                exactly is Turkey doing that gives you the
                                willies?
                             If these are the 'allies' we're losing due to
                             American foreign policy (and I disagree they were
                             allies in the first place or that the
                             relationships have changed *at all* then we have
                             ***nothing*** to worry about in the "oh n0es~! our
                             allies are turning on us!!11" sense.  I'm
                             surprised you see these nations as 'allies'.  They
                             are on-again off-again self-interested parties,
                             like all nations.  They semi-rationally determine
                             what is in the best interests of their leaders,
                             (not necessarily their nations) and do whatever
                             that is until such time as some other greater
                             self-interest emerges.
        \_ I haven't even seen this movie, but I'm not sure I believe it was
           made by neo-cons.  Was it financed by Cheny or something?
           \_ Does it say it was made by neocons?  I think the author
              was saying neo-cons point to the movie and cheer about how
              the movie shows the good, fascist, strong, 'democratic?'
              disciplined Spartans (american proxies) triumph over
              the unwashed ninja move boy-loving hordes.  I can easily
                                        \_ There was no Persian boy-loving
                                           going on in the movie.
              believe the not so bright will see this movie and think it
              represents Greek history accurately, and that you can
              derive some sort of parallel between the Greeks then and
              the American War On Terror.  Victor Hansen has written
              many nationally printed columns about how wonderful 300
              is, which is pretty amusing since Hansen is a classics
              professor and should know this period of history very well.
              \_ It's a movie made from a friggin' comic book!  It has nothing
                 to do with anything.  It is entertainment.  The entire world
                 is not some sort of allegory for Iraq or US Hegemony or any
                 such thing.  C-O-M-I-C B-O-O-K!!!  sheesh.
              \_ From the rant "The only reason this thing got made is that it
                 makes good anti-Iran propaganda..."
                 makes good anti-Iran propaganda...[big cut]...Now the neocons
                 have gone so over the deep end of delusional thinking that
                 they've resorted to fantasizing about Sparta...These diehard
                 neocons have gone insane because there's no way they can
                 argue for an invasion of Iran any more."
                 He seems pretty sure that this is some neocon conspiracy.
                 I agree with the above guy, it's just a comic book movie, war
                 nerd should get over it.  Besides, there are probably far
                 more people who believe in Michael Moore's fantasy
                 documentaries.
2007/3/27-29 [Reference/Tax] UID:46109 Activity:nil
3/26    I bought a Prius last year thinking I'd get $3150 tax credit. Well
        as it turns out I'm *eligible* to get up to $3150 tax credit, and
        in reality it turned out to be much much less thanks to my
        mortgage deductions. Oddly enough, if you make over $750K/year
        you'll get the entire $3150 credit. This is the apotheosis of
        Republican tax policy.
        http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/01/26/EDGC7N75RT1.DTL
        \_ Welcome to the bizzaro world of AMT.
2007/3/27-29 [Politics/Domestic/Gay] UID:46110 Activity:nil 90%like:46098
3/26    Gay-wango-tango
        http://urltea.com/2e2 (nj.com)
2007/3/27-29 [Science/GlobalWarming] UID:46111 Activity:nil
3/26    So many here are interested in global warming, I thought this
        would be a good place to ask this question:
        What is a good source for the relative carbon footprint of
        various countries? What is the per captia CO^2 output for
        China? The US? Europe? Does anyone has this info handy?
        Googling doesn't turn it up for me. -ausman
        \- i didnt have the energy to
        \- i'm only interested in usa vs china,india,brazil [to argue
           with self-serving morons like mr "fine the hell out of
           india/china, below] but you can see http://tinyurl.com/yzh39x
           --dept of energy person
           \- oh, i had not previously seen this version. has agg numbers:
              http://tinyurl.com/e3nfc --doe person
        \_ http://tinyurl.com/yxawra (wikipedia.com)
           Total emissions, by country
2007/3/27-29 [Politics/Domestic/Crime, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:46112 Activity:nil
3/26    Bush's kangaroo court gets its first "conviction":
        http://www.csua.org/u/ibj (SF Gate)
        \_ "Under the evolving rules of the Military Commissions Act
            passed by Congress in September..." i.e. after five years
           we're still making it up as we go along.
           "civilian criminal defense lawyer Joshua Dratel was barred
            from participating because he refused to promise to adhere
            to procedural rules that have yet to be defined.
            Kohlmann also declined to approve a second civilian lawyer,
            Rebecca Snyder, on the grounds that commission rules allow
            civilians only if their representation incurs no expense to
            the U.S. government. Snyder is a Pentagon employee." Awesome.
2007/3/27 [Uncategorized] UID:46113 Activity:nil 80%like:46119
3/26    REAL...ESTATE!  SHE ALWAYS GOES UP!
        http://www.burbed.com/2007/03/26/affordable-starter-home-or-fallujah-replica-in-the-bay-area-you-decide
        \_ I see Sour Grapes Housing Guy has his account back
2007/3/27-31 [Politics/Domestic/California/Arnold, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:46114 Activity:nil
3/27    Governor of Mass has 9/11 truther webpage:
        http://devalpatrick.com/issue.php?issue_id=7579012
        \_ And did you hear?  MoveOn had a short film calling Bush Hitler!
        \_ I just read most of this, I think this is a community
           website that lets anyone who has registered to post
           an article, so it's not the Governor or his staff posting
           this.
           \_ If your beliefs can be simplified to the organizations you
              belong to or associate with, then that says a lot about your
              intellectual inflexibility and overall lack of.
           \_ Go to http://freerepublic.com
              Now please go away.
           \_ Don't let facts get in the way of a good slander.
2007/3/27-31 [Politics/Domestic/California, Politics/Domestic/California/Arnold] UID:46115 Activity:nil
3/27    Are you a member of the libertarian party and you're not white?
        Are you active in the party?  What race are you and how do the mostly
        white members treat you?  I'm asian-american and I'm thinking of
        joining the LP.  After reading a lot of the materials on http://lp.org and
        http://cato.org, I find that their beliefs are very compatible with mine.
        But that's libertarianism at the national level.  What about at the
        grass roots local level?  Is there a lot of minority participation?
        Thanks.
           \_ If your beliefs can be simplified to the organizations you
              belong to or associate with, then that says a lot about your
              intellectual inflexibility and overall lack of.
           \_ Go to http://freerepublic.com
              Now please go away.
        \_ Why don't you vote your conscience and use http://match.com for socialization.
        \_ Why don't you vote your conscience and use http://match.com for
           socialization.
2007/3/27-31 [Finance/Banking] UID:46116 Activity:nil
3/27    http://tinyurl.com/2wbv5j (voiceofsandiego.org)
        San Diego default notices, foreclosures from Jan 91 - Feb 07.
        graph1 - absolute number ; graph2 - as percentage of population
        \_ The second one appears to be off by an order of magnitude.
           \_ No facts on MOTD please. :-)
           \_ please note graph2 uses % of pop, not % of mortgages
              \_ Right, and 1200/1.2M != 1.0%
                 \_ sorry.  i wrote an e-mail to the guy.
                    he wrote back and will fix the mistake..
2007/3/27-31 [Transportation/Car] UID:46117 Activity:low
3/27    "Comedian Eddie Griffin Wrecks $1.5M Car"
        video: link:www.yahoo.com/s/542098
        story: link:www.yahoo.com/s/542099
        Watching the video, I'm not so sure whether it's bad driver or bad
        car.  It shouldn't have been that tight of a turn at that speed for an
        Enzo to make, even for a bad driver.
        \_ The driver makes a racist remark, implying that blacks can't
           drive. But ya I agree that the turn could and should have been
           made easily. He panicked the last turn, hit the brake, but by
           then it was too late.
           \_ I think he was just joking when he said "Brothers can't drive,"
              referring to his role in the movie Undercover Brother.
           \_ I think he was just joking when he said "the Brother can't
              drive," referring to his role in the movie Undercover Brother.
        \_ oh no, this must be stopped! Join our strugle to save the Enzos
           while there is still some time left!
           http://tinyurl.com/2ovlly
           http://shop.gawker.com/cgi-bin/shopper.cgi?preadd=action&key=JLT01
           \_ Only 398 Enzos left.
2007/3/27-28 [Uncategorized] UID:46118 Activity:nil
3/27    You know what I enjoy doing? I love turning super long URLs
        into http://csua.org, then turning that URL into http://tinyurl.com. Now
        that I've discovered the joy of http://urltea.com, I enjoy turning all
        the http://tinyurl.com into http://urltea.com, then back to http://csua.org, then
        repeat this long process. After 10-20 chains, all the URLs on
        motd takes 1-5 seconds to load. It is really fun!!!   -url addict
        \_ You know, there're a lot of volunteer organizations with
           good, meaningful work to do, since you seem to have so much
           time on your hands.
2007/3/27-29 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:46119 Activity:moderate 80%like:46113
3/26    REAL...ESTATE! SHE ALWAYS GOES UP!
        http://urltea.com/2fs (burbed.com)
        \_ I see Sour Grapes Housing Guy has his account back
           \_ Oh come on, that page is funny as hell.
           \_ I see Humorless Married to His Mortgage Guy is still around, too
              \_ A mortgage is like free money.  You get some money off your
                 taxes and would have to pay rent otherwise and while living
                 a few years in the thing you own it goes up in value.  What
                 is wrong with having a mortgage?  What have you done with
                 the 'freedom' that renting provides?
                 \_ Unless, of course, you're in a depreciating market and/or
                    have an ARM and/or an "interest only" loan.  In which
                    case, a mortgage is a great way to convey what little
                    wealth you actually have/earn and give it to someone
                    else.
2007/3/27-28 [Uncategorized] UID:46120 Activity:nil
03/27   mead is down for nefarious drive-enhancement purposes.  Theoretically,
        you should still be able to read yout mail, but sending and receiving
        won't work until we bring it back up.  Updates here and in wall.
2017/09/19 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
9/19    
Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2007:March:27 Tuesday <Monday, Wednesday>