Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 48011
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2025/05/23 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/23    

2007/9/11-13 [Finance/Investment, Reference/RealEstate] UID:48011 Activity:nil
9/11    http://www.csua.org/u/jhl
        "I'm leaving him," she said. "He's grouchy all the time. I want a
        guy who's rich and cheerful all day and all night. Why should I
        have to suffer because his business is bad?"
        Are any of you losing wives over the whole housing bubble popping?
        \_ Hi, I'm Ben Stein and watch me try and claim that the housing
           bubble is going to turn around any day now, but do so in a way
           that if it doesn't I can pretend I wasn't saying that.
           God damn that man is such a wanker.
           \- "I won the John Bates Clark Medal. You, sir, are
              a game show host." ... BEEN STEIN is not just a pud,
              but may actually be semi-insane. This is well worth reading:
              http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2005/06/a_missing_piece.html
           \_ Hi, I'm a motd troll.  Watch me make fun of an article I haven't
              read, poorly.  Did I fool you?
              \_ Dude, in that article he tries to play it both ways so bad
                 it isn't even funny.
                 \_ "Six years."
                 \_ Why do you take it so seriously? It's obviously not a
                   "here are my weighty predictions" article. It's just
                   some dumb fluff piece.
                   \_ Look, it's just a dumb fluff piece so I can take
                      both positions.  See, just a dumb fluff piece.
                      Of course after everything goes down I can
                      point to the parts that were right and forget all
                      the fluffyness.  If things go totally haywire and
                      neither X nor Y happen I can just shrug and say
                      it was a dumb fluff piece.  This is exactly why
                      I think The Daily Show shouldn't get a pass for
                      being on Comedy Central.
                      \_ Uh, when have people pointed to the Daily Show
                         in a serious way? I don't see how anyone could
                         point to this article here in a serious way
                         either.
                         \- Jon Stewart doesnt claim to be a lawyer &&
                            economist && journalist && philosopher, seek
                            affiliation with think tanks which lobby to
                            change public policy etc. BSTEIN allegedly
                            was #1 in his class at yale law, so ostenisibly
                            he at some point was a smart guy. but he says
                            so many whack things, that why i think you need
                            some theory ot explain his brain snapping or
                            being disingenuous etc [like ann coulter clearly
                            says some things so she becomes a media story->
                            free advertising].
2025/05/23 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/23    

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Cache (2443 bytes)
www.csua.org/u/jhl -> money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/09/17/100250263/index.htm
Ben Stein, Fortune September 11 2007: 10:20 AM EDT (Fortune Magazine) -- It doesn't look to me as if there will be a recession - at least not a major recession - from the subprime problems or the credit crunch or any of that panic on Wall Street. But there are effects rippling all over the place right here and now, and some of them are not what you might expect (though some are). Item: My dear friend B is a broker for super-luxury homes in Scottsdale. He used to be perpetually out of breath from hustling around that lush area showing immense houses and depositing huge checks. jpg Ben Stein says market chaos is having some surprising ripple effects, including unhappy marriages. Subscribe to Fortune "Now," he says, "I go into the office on Saturdays and Sundays, and I'm literally the only person there. There are dozens of empty cubicles, but their phones never ring. It's as if I were down in the desert 100 miles from here. "If I don't," he says, "there's a 100% chance nothing will happen. Item: I, your humble servant, am negotiating to buy a condo in Sandpoint in magnificent, super-beautiful northern Idaho. The day I made my first offer, I read a piece in the New York Times that seemed to say that jumbo loans were either unavailable or available only at rates in the range of 13%. That same day my mortgage broker offered me a 30-year jumbo at 6 7/8%. She said she had money to lend and could do the thing in two weeks. The next day two more lenders called and offered me the same deal. Item: On CNBC there is story after story about the mortgage cutoff and credit crunch. Item: One of my best friends, a blue-eyed, red-haired stunner and a math whiz, is married to a builder and mortgage broker near Naples, Fla. At most he sleeps from 5 AM to 7 AM We built two spec homes near Naples. I want a guy who's rich and cheerful all day and all night. Why should I have to suffer because his business is bad?" I want to laugh and have fun, and he's in a bad mood for months on end. I didn't make this mortgage mess, and I don't see why I should have to suffer for it." "I want you to start looking for a rich husband for me who's going to stay rich no matter what. I told her the story about my friend who's planning to look for a richer husband. "No, because what if she leaves him and the mortgage market and the spec home market suddenly turn around and he gets rich again and then she can't find anyone as rich to marry next?"
Cache (8192 bytes)
delong.typepad.com/sdj/2005/06/a_missing_piece.html
Krugman's allegations": To: Mr Paul Krugman Op-Ed Page The New York Times From: Ben Stein Los Angeles, California. Dear Professor Krugman, In all of my life, I have never seen a more confused column than the one that appeared on March 12, 2002 on the Op-Ed page of the New York Times about the death of the esteemed economist, policy expert, teacher, and public servant, James Tobin, on the sad occasion of Professor Tobin's death. I was honored to be a student and lifelong admirer of Dr. Tobin, and you do him and many others wrong, and display frightening misunderstanding of the field. Just to start, you say the great depression was "widely blamed" on laissez faire policies. It has been blamed on many things, but no serious scholar has blamed it on free market economics. In fact, just the opposite--many blame it on price fixing and restraint of trade encouraged by the New Deal. Your idea that there is or ever was any intellectual rigor in blaming the great depression on the free market is simply a non-starter, period. Second, your calling a true scholar and genius like Friedman "naive" is simply astonishing especially in context. He had great respect for monetarism, for its central text, The Monetary History of the United States by Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz, and would have been scandalized by someone at your level daring to call Milton Friedman or his ideas and thorough research naive. For you to further assert that Friedman's monetarism has not stood the test of time is almost unbelievable. What theory do you think governs current Fed policy if not monetarism? Do you really think that even Tobin believed that changes in asset prices (related to his fascinating doctrine of "Tobin's Q", which you totally ignore) caused business cycles, or were more important than fluctuations in money supply in determining levels of economic activity? I can well recall Tobin in class at Yale in the late sixties heaping praise on Friedman's explanations of the causes of business cycles. Finally, for you to assert, on zero evidence, that Tobin's time as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers was unique and that since the early sixties, all other Council members have had to hew to a political line and sacrifice honesty and objectivity is insanely insulting to all other members of the Council and their staffs. The history of honesty and objectivity of members of both parties is unquestioned (except maybe by you, again, on a hunch, without any data at all). However, they all loved their jobs and knew who their bosses were. The idea that the Kennedy team of economists alone was above politics and holy men of scholarship is comical. I strongly urge you to read "Presidential Economics" by my father, Herbert Stein, a member and then Chair of the Council of Economic advisors, under Nixon and Ford, and whom you smear along with all of the others similarly sited except Dr. This little bit of reading by you might save you from such naive assumptions in the future, as well as from smears of the innocent. and to heap scorn on one of the great minds of all time in economics, Milton Friedman. In short, your piece is a dismaying morass of confusion, insult, and disinformation. You know you're really getting under peoples' skin when they go ballistic over perfectly nice, genteel columns. I was somewhat surprised, while on vacation, to receive hostile, irrational email attacking my valedictory for James Tobin - the least biting column I've written for ages. Not until I got back and read a short squib in the New Republic did I realize where that came from - a bizarre screed by Ben Stein. For what it's worth: I can be accused of a lot of things, but a "limited background in economics" isn't one of them. Mr Stein's father was a fine economist, a member of a rapidly vanishing species - moderate Republicans. Vague memories of what he heard in his undergraduate class in the 1960s don't cut it. I'm tempted to assign Mr Stein some readings, starting with Tobin's Essays in Economics: Volume 1, Macroeconomics. It gives you a pretty good picture of what he did, of his debate with Friedman (the volume includes Tobin's critical review of Friedman and Schwartz, which Mr Stein clearly has not read) and much more. I think I understand Tobin's contribution as well as anyone - and no serious economist has quarreled with my depiction of his work. the current fashion in economic policy is "inflation targeting", while the current fashion in academic research is to suppress any explicit discussion of the money supply, and use other indicators of monetary policy. Friedman's claim to greatness rests not on monetarism, which is now seen as a somewhat embarrassing - and, yes, "naive" - episode in his intellectual evolution, but on two lasting contributions: the permanent-income theory of consumption, and the natural-rate hypothesis. If I had to psychoanalyze Mr Stein, I'd say that the idea that I am a serious academic economist deeply disturbs him. After all, if I know what I'm talking about in eulogizing James Tobin, the other things I've been saying in my column might be true, and the politicians Mr Stein supports might be as dishonest as I claim. Anyway, I knew Jim Tobin - whom I talked with at length just a few days before his death - a lot better than Mr Stein. And here is Krugman on Tobin, from the March 12, 2002 New York Times: Missing James Tobin SYNOPSIS: The passing of James Tobin marks the passing of a good man and the end of an era of honesty James Tobin -- Yale professor, Nobel laureate and adviser to John F Kennedy -- died yesterday. his passing seems to me to symbolize the passing of an era, one in which economic debate was both nicer and a lot more honest than it is today. Mr Tobin was one of those economic theorists whose influence reaches so far that many people who have never heard of him are nonetheless his disciples. He was also, however, a public figure, for a time the most prominent advocate of an ideology we might call free-market Keynesianism -- a belief that markets are fine things, but that they work best if the government stands ready to limit their excesses. it's ironic that some of his essentially moderate ideas have lately been hijacked by extremists right and left. Mr Tobin was one of the economists who brought the Keynesian revolution to America. Before that revolution, there seemed to be no middle ground in economics between laissez-faire fatalism and heavy-handed government intervention -- and with laissez-faire policies widely blamed for the Great Depression, it was hard to see how free-market economics could survive. John Maynard Keynes changed all that: with judicious use of monetary and fiscal policy, he suggested, a free-market system could avoid future depressions. Basically, he took the crude, mechanistic Keynesianism prevalent in the 1940's and transformed it into a far more sophisticated doctrine, one that focused on the tradeoffs investors make as they balance risk, return and liquidity. In the 1960's Mr Tobin's sophisticated Keynesianism made him the best-known intellectual opponent of Milton Friedman, then the advocate of a rival (and rather naive) doctrine known as monetarism. For what it's worth, Mr Friedman's insistence that changes in the money supply explain all of the economy's ups and downs has not stood the test of time; Mr Tobin's focus on asset prices as the driving force behind economic fluctuations has never looked better. First, Mr Tobin was the intellectual force behind the Kennedy tax cut, which started the boom of the 1960's. The irony is that nowadays that tax cut is usually praised by hard-line conservatives, who regard such cuts as an elixir for whatever ails you. In fact I was on a panel with him just last week, where he argued strongly that the current situation called for more domestic spending, not more tax cuts. Second, back in 1972 Mr Tobin proposed that governments levy a small tax on foreign exchange transactions, as a way to discourage destabilizing speculation. He thought of this tax as a way to help promote free trade, by assuring countries that they could open their markets without exposing themselves to di...