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2006/9/15-19 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iran, Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Others] UID:44400 Activity:nil |
9/15 http://csua.org/u/gwl (Krauthammer, Wash Post) I hope the dunderheads in the White House aren't taking military advice from this wacko, and are taking it instead from veteran analysts in the Pentagon/CIA. There are overriding holes in Krauthammer's column. \_ Of course you don't mention any of those holes. Besides--overriding holes? I've never heard that phrase. \_ I thought it was a weird phrase too, but I stuck with it. -op \_ I usually find Krauthammer to be just this side of nuts. It's nice to see that even the nuts think this is a bad idea. |
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csua.org/u/gwl -> www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/14/AR2006091401413.html The next day, he responded thus (as reported by Rich Lowry and Kate O'Beirne of National Review) to a question on Iran: "It's very important for the American people to see the president try to solve problems diplomatically before resorting to military force." An aerial attack on Iran's nuclear facilities lies just beyond the horizon of diplomacy. With the crisis advancing and the moment of truth approaching, it is important to begin looking now with unflinching honesty at the military option. An attack on Iran is likely to send oil prices overnight to $100 or even to $150 a barrel. That will cause a worldwide recession perhaps as deep as the one triggered by the Iranian revolution of 1979. Iran might suspend its own 25 million barrels a day of oil exports and might even be joined by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, asserting primacy as the world's leading anti-imperialist. But even more effectively, Iran will shock the oil markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's exports flow every day. Iran could do this by attacking ships in the Strait, scuttling its own ships, laying mines or just threatening to launch Silkworm anti-ship missiles at any passing tanker. And it will take time -- during which the world economy will be in a deep spiral. Iran will activate its proxies in Iraq, most notably, Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. Sadr is already wreaking havoc with sectarian attacks on Sunni civilians. Iran could order the Mahdi Army and its other agents within the police and armed forces to take up arms against the institutions of the central government itself, threatening the very anchor of the new Iraq. Many Iraqis and coalition soldiers are likely to die as well. Among the lesser military dangers, Iran might activate terrorist cells around the world, although without nuclear capability that threat is hardly strategic. It will also be very difficult to unleash its proxy Hezbollah, now chastened by the destruction it brought upon Lebanon in the latest round with Israel and deterred by the presence of Europeans in the south Lebanon buffer zone. RSS Feed Post a Comment Comments: (Limit 5,000 characters) Post Comments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, we will take steps to block users who violate any of our posting standards, terms of use or privacy policies or any other policies governing this site. |