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| 2008/11/20-21 [Science/Disaster] UID:52056 Activity:insanely high |
11/20 So oil finally hit $50 like I've been predicting for a long time
now on MOTD. So what am I doing about it? Thinking about buying
shares of SLB. Trying to figure out a good entry point. Right now
I read that the oil companies are pumping and storing oil. Yes,
sounds like PEAK OIL to me.
\_ Has the fed resumed stocking up the underground strategic reserve
again?
\_ Saying the same thing 50x and being right once is not exactly
divine insight.
\_ Sure it is. I've been saying "Oil -> $50" even when it was
$150. I don't need to give an exact date when it would
happen. A lot of people thought it would NEVER happen.
\_ Did anyone on the motd make this claim? I don't remember
seeing anyone.
\_ http://csua.com/2008/10/17/#51569
http://csua.com/2008/03/07/#49375
\_ no one in either of those discussions claims that
oil will never be $50/barrel again. -tom
\_ You are so obtuse. What's important there is
that I made the claim it would be $50 again and
there was a lot of argument that the oil prices
were really based on supply/demand, which we
know now is bullshit. I didn't mean to imply
anyone on MOTD said oil would never hit $50
again (although if I had to guess I'm sure you
thought so without saying) but that many people
across the nation thought so. So many articles
about the end of cheap oil, blah blah blah blah.
Like I said, many mutual funds were buying oil
stocks like it would last. I think a lot of
people are shocked oil went back to $50, but not
me. I've been saying it for months. Give me
credit, dude.
\_ Try yoga; if you get good at it, you'll be able
to suck your own dick. -tom
\_ I'll have to take your word for it.
\_ Demand is way way down in the US. Aren't you
aware of this?
\_ "I am suggesting that it only can do so by a demand
shock not a supply increase, hence a global
recession, at least until we can get our economy
less hooked on cheap oil."
I am the one who deserves the props here. -GS
\_ Don't you get that oil prices hinge on a
lot more than supply and demand? Demand
for oil in the US fell a whopping 5% January to
October according to API. In fact, oil prices
were rising the first half of this year
even as demand fell 3%.
\_ Prove it. Prove that worldwide demand was
falling the first half of the year. And
stop stomping on my changes asshole.
\_ Learn to use Google
http://tinyurl.com/5pdnzn
Sorry if I am stomping on your
changes if it is indeed me, which I
doubt. BTW, how did we go from "way
way down in the US" to "worldwide
demand"? My article addresses the
former fallacious claim. I don't
have time to track all of your crazy
claims down.
\_ Actually you verified my "crazy claim"
that demand was down in the US, thanks
for that.
\_ 5% down is "way way down"?
\_ Yes, especially for a product
with such a steeply inelestic
supply-demand curve. Actually,
it is huge for any product.
What else is usage down by 5%
For what else is usage down by 5%
in less than a year?
\_ "I am suggesting that it only can do so by a
demand shock not a supply increase, hence a
global recession, at least until we can get our
economy less hooked on cheap oil."
Someone deserves credit, but it isn't you...
\_ Uh huh. Peak oil!
\_ wait, I thought high oil price was due to high demand from China
and India. What happened again?
\_ global credit collapse?
\_ But the shots do find their mark and have gone into the exhaust port
and are heading for the main reactor.
\_ I am going to cash out my bonds and buy stocks. I was going to
wait until Jan 1, but this maximum pessimism makes me pretty
sure we are at or close to a bottom. I am still holding my CA
munis. |
| 4/3 |
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| csua.com/2008/10/17/#51569 You might want to check out the situation in Ohio though. Obama's relationship with ACORN, who is now on the verge of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country, maybe destroying the fabric of democracy." The fact the McCain is morally bankrupt enough to say this in a debate is just... They could really end up in a very big hole for a very long time if they follow through on that threat. These wild, crazy swings up and down are great for trading! I can see why some people get overconfident and quit their day jobs. I'm too chicken so I only do QQQQ and DIA and I'm actually doing OK with the predictable fluctuations. In addition I'm trading such low volume that if I get screwed, I'll just hold on for 5-20 years and will still be ok. You can keep changing the stops and limits all you want and it's still the same "trade" if it doesn't execute. Can I still sell it on eBay for a good price, since the warranty is *not* transferable? I once compared my friend's 18-200 DX with my 18-70 DX by shooting the same scene with the same settings on my D80 body. No one should be expecting a consumer-level lens with 11x zoom range to match a high-end primes in contrast, color, and other qualities, but it's still going to take good pictures (if used right) while giving the you the flexibility of the 11x zoom. Even in the worst case, it's going to give you much better image than those little cameras with puny sensors can. Sell your consumer grade DX lens and take it as a hard lesson learned. Oh and buy a couple of SB-800 (or more 600s) so you can do really creative shots in almost any light conditions. html McCain decides to vilify ACORN as the worst thing since Hitler and funny enough his supporters take him to heart and act on the belief. Where's the McCain isn't responsible for his actions guy when you need him? Does the rate encourage mom&pop shops, or is it equal regardless of corporation revenues? Partners in the company divide the net revenue based on percentage ownership and then add that to their other income. This is the most common form of small company, so the rates are the same as personal (and hence just as progressive). you can google for the GAO and de facto (effective) tax rates. you can google for the GAO study on this which came out this summer. com/55qdqa Article speculating that "oil bubble" was caused by hedge funds and that oil prices are down now because hedge funds have had massive redemptions. A drop in price is an opportunity to fix our oil dependency once and for all. As I said before, oil prices are very inelestic and since demand is down, prices should be way down. They will be back up again soon enough, take advantage of the respite to save. Obviously oil prices are not that inelastic, because they've fallen like a stone. Oil consumption in the US is expected to decline, in spite of the fact that prices are down. Worldwide demand is still going to go up, just less than before. Inelastic == demand stays constant (relatively) no matter what happens to price. com/634txb (this is better actually) \_ I've taken more econ. Please to be explaining why the price of oil is falling. If demand is constant no matter what then what incentive is there for the price to fall? I wonder what variable other than demand could be in play here... Kinda blows away the idea that we are close to peak oil, wot wot? Clearly that's enough to cause the price to fall in half. No, the issue here is with the demand side: specifically, speculators. A very small increase or decrease in production over demand has a huge impact on prices. No one (or no reasonable person, at least) would claim that the "Peak" event will happen all at once. There is always going to be small movement up and down, as global events influence production. Also, as prices go up, new sources become economically recoverable. You should consider the strengthening dollar in your analaysis of how much prices have moved. Priced in Yen or Euro's, oil prices have moved quite a bit less. Don't mistake dollar volatility for commodity price volitility. uk/business/feedarticle/7875749 The IEA still believes crude consumption will be higher than in the same period last year (+400,000 bpd) \_ sure, lots of levered long plays on oil by all sorts of funds (hedge, pension, other institutionals). Since the market is projecting a global economic contraction, demand will be reduced so prices go down. This all has nothing to do with peak oil, which is about the peak in oil *SUPPLY*. There's so much supply that OPEC is talking about reducing output. The current price is a good indicator that we're not close to peak oil yet. You don't go from "plentiful oil" to "peak oil" in 2 years (or whatever it was), sorry. Oil supply has been flat for about 3 years now, and there is no proof that it's going to go up anytime soon. When you can say there's a problem is when supply cannot be met. One indicator of that is when production decreases even as prices rise. so in addition to speculators, there is strategic production strategy. it's not reasonable to write another 1000 words on this and frankly i dont understand it that well, but there more to it than supply and demand and elasticity. You may also want to look up Contango and Backwardation. Per my earlier link about manipulation in the copper mkt, the way these mkts work is very far removed from theory ... if you are familar with economics, part of thinking about this involves the "art" of teasing out short run phenomena from long run equillibria. for an analogy in FX, say DORNBUSCH OVERSHOOTING vs convergence to PPP "eventually" . id=31449 44-year-old veteran trader kills self after losing several million daytrading S&P 500 futures on Wed. a stock broker who uses his superior understanding of psychology to beat the market? |
| csua.com/2008/03/07/#49375 most men don't achieve great success because they dissipate their energies through over indulgence in physical expression of the emotion of sex." Through the art of sex transmutation, or channeling your sexual energy into that of creativity and work, some of the most famous men were able to achieve great success... George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Napoleon, Shakespeare, Lincoln, Emerson, etc etc. I'm sure supply is about where it was 5 years ago and I cannot imagine demand is that much higher and yet prices are almost triple. Is this a speculative bubble where investors are buying oil because they perceive the price of oil to be rising, is this manipulated by OPEC, or have costs of doing business risen dramatically? Not directly addressed on that page is the fact that oil supply is not entirely fungible; as production in individual countries starts to fall, those countries tend to stop exporting oil before their supply totally crashes. That shifts more of the demand to countries with riskier supplies like Iraq and Iran. It also reduces the excess capacity available on the market, which makes the market more susceptible to shocks. However, the article does allude to a $50/barrel "risk premium". To me that's another way to say 'gouge' and that oil should realistically be about $40-50 barrel based on supply and demand alone. I also can't believe you think oil is a 'relatively free market' when there is a cartel involved. If you think about this, there are pretty dire consequences for the world economy, since the only other way to slow down oil consumption is to have a recession. I can dig up some Economist articles about this if you want, but you should try Googling yourself first. I mean, if demand is that inelastic then why not charge $200 or $400 per barrel? I know the US was doing this with the strategic oil reserve. Is the US government the culprit and soaking up the supply at these prices? Most businesses tend to buy what they need and not keep massive inventories of oil. My opinion is that much of this rise is speculative just like the price of tulips or Miami condos. I noticed in a lot of my mutual fund portfolios that oil companies and suppliers are big contributors in terms of % of portfolio. This implies to me that Wall Street is parking a lot of my money there looking for the quick buck and I was wondering what happens when (not if) oil prices finally go down. jpg Pay attention to the "real" parts and not the forecast. As you can see both supply and demand have been near a plateau since maybe 2004 and yet price has risen. So prices going up is what a relatively inelestic demand curve would predict. Because there was someone there willing to undercut them if they did. Because the people consuming most of the oil (American drivers and manufacturers worldwide) are willing to pay more to get the oil they want. This stand off has to resolve itself somehow, I agree, but I am suggesting that it only can do so by a demand shock not a supply increase, hence a global recession, at least until we can get our economy less hooked on cheap oil. The other alternative explaination is that we are just suffering for an underinvestment in oil exploration back when oil was really cheap, like in oil exploration back from when oil was really cheap, like in the late 90s. If that really is true, then production should ramp back up again RSN. They just seem so massive, and like, they're ballooning out from the stitches (if that makes sense) so I just want to know what's average for that. it really makes me queasy just looking at them :( When will the numbness go away? The sides of my breasts as well as a little bit up into my armpits and even the backs of my arms are numb to the point that they hurt when someone touches them. My wife stays home, but the more I help, the more I get. It's not how good you are, but the rate you improve that helps. Helping out around the house allows us to go to bed earlier... I'm still not getting laid from my wife, but I kinda lost interest in it with her anyway after how she's been treating me. I'm pretty sure she's actually in the office that late, but I'm not quite sure what she's doing there. She's either there working and will dig that or you can get moving on that divorce. Like if she's making breakfast just bend her over the kitchen counter. pdf Conforming loan limits are now $729,750 for the San Jose-Sunnyvale- Santa Clara area. Given real value decreases I'm sure we'll be back around 2002 prices fairly soon. By the way, "bitter renter" accusations are essentially a Godwin equivalent at this point in the housing mess. The bitter renters have been harping on the motd for years. If they had bought back then they'd still be above their purchase price and would actually be on their way to owning something instead of supporting their landlord's yachting adventures. They'd be renting from the bank like the rest of America. They'd be renting from the bank like the rest of America. That has nothing at all to do with the economy, housing, or anything. I did not take out anything when I refi'd and every month I own a bit more. Can you define real soon a little more precisely please? Depends a lot on whether the dollar continues to become more worthless, which I think is a good bet. Not great, but not that bad, especially if you have a mortgage that is getting inflated away as well. Where would you \- yes you are paying with inflated dollars, but some of you house apprecaition is nominal appreciation. And even if your rather pessimistic prediction comes true, I will have lived in a place for 10 years for the cost of mortgage + taxes + maint - tax break, which is already less than rent for me. And I'll be a perfectly happy "bitter renter" on the sidelines until I need to buy and prices are a little more realistic. But this conforming limit change certainly does not mean "buy buy buy." org/u/kzo (calculated risk) The DTI, LTV, and re-fi requirements seem daunting to me. Won't be surprised if these end up costing more than a traditional jumbo. To tell you the truth, I was kind of nervous buying even in 2002. But I guess it all worked out, barring a huge deflationary period (that is when people with $1/2M loans really get screwed). It's hard to predict tops/bottoms so just buy when you can afford to. By the way, from what I can tell from the rules on these "jumbo conforming loans," the price savings in the end as compared to normal jumbos will be a wash. By the way, the DTI requirement on these new loans means they aren't gonna change much of anything, at least not in the Bay. If you're so happy what's it matter what the requirements are or what effect they will/wont have on prices? There are other reasons to care about this stuff than house envy. com/s/nm/20080307/sc_nm/usa_minicar_dc_1 \_ That "stuff" is called the bicycle, scooter, and motorcycle. Despite the obvious rise and demand of city homes, the number of people moving to suburbs still outstrip the number of people moving to cities. The increase supply of city homes still cannot meet the growing needs of our nation. As long as suburbs are more affordable, there will be people moving to suburbs. Fortunately I dont have to carry anything bigger than a water bottle so this vehicle is just perfect! How is this different from the Toyota PM that has been announced for a while? |
| tinyurl.com/5pdnzn -> www.api.org/Newsroom/us_june08_oil_demand.cfm org WASHINGTON - US oil demand was significantly down for the first six months of 2008, API said today in its Monthly Statistical Report. While US refiners churned out record and near-record amounts of oil products, imports - especially product imports -- fell substantially. Deliveries of all oil products - a measure of demand - fell 30 percent compared with the same first-half-year period in 2007, with gasoline deliveries slipping 17 percent. For the preceding three years, oil demand had essentially held steady. And the decline in gasoline demand was the first significant one recorded in 17 years. Higher pump prices and a slowing economy were undoubtedly factors." At 20 percent, the second-quarter decline in demand for gasoline was even greater than for the first six months. However, the 18 percent decline for all products for the last three months, compared with the same period a year ago, was less in part because of a 21 percent increase in demand for distillates, which includes diesel fuels and home heating oil. Reflecting continued strong demand for diesel fuel, industry production for that product set new records for the first half of 2008. "Distillate production averaged 423 million barrels per day, the highest ever for any six-month period," said Planting. "However, gasoline production was down only 1 percent, leaving it at the second highest level for any January-through-June period." Overall US oil imports, including crude oil and oil products, sank to their lowest first-half level since 2003, at less than 13 million barrels per day. Crude oil inventories declined to 301 million barrels at the end of June, down 54 million barrels from last year's recent-year record and the lowest mid-year level since 2003. Consistent with relatively stronger demand for diesel fuel than for gasoline, gasoline inventories ended June up from a year ago while diesel inventories were down. US crude oil production fell by 22 percent for the first half of 2008 compared with 2007. |