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| 11/22 |
| 2008/6/12-13 [Science/GlobalWarming] UID:50244 Activity:very high |
6/12 By the way, the Government estimates that the outer continental shelf,
(the one they said no to yesterday), has 76 billion barrels of oil in
it that are recoverable and that's with today's technology. Let me put
that into perspective. 76 billion barrels is enough to replace every
single barrel of oil that we import from everywhere outside of North
America for the next 34 years at our current pace. That's in the one
place, one, that congress said we couldn't go into yesterday.
\_ oil is the ultimate strawman. the MSM websites harping on oil are
part of the conspiracy all over the internet to conceal the nature
of an exponential function. search for a graph of Moore's Law, the
quaint rule that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every
18 to 24 months, you will see a graph of a linear function, ie a
straight line, see this wiki page for a 'censored' graph of Moore's
Law: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Moores_law.svg
however if this were a true linear function, the scale of the
y-axis would increase in regular increments, 10,000 then 20,000
then 30,000... etc... instead the y-axis of every Moore's Law
Chart you see increases in increments 10,000 then 100,000 then
1,000,000... making an exponential function appear to be a linear
function. I imagine this is to avoid general societal panic.
for a comparison of a linear graph and an exponential graph see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_equation
and for an exponential function here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function
the graph of an exponential function at some point will veer
sharply up into infinity. before the powers that be began to
censor the true appearance of the Moore's Law chart on the internet
it was apparent that the singularity would occur in the year 2032,
when the chart veers sharply up into infinity. so the singularity
clearly occurs in the year 2032. CASE CLOSED.
\_ "The projections in the [Outer Continental Shelf] OCS
access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic,
and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant
impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or
prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than
2012, and production would not be expected to start before
2017."
http://mediamatters.org/items/200806090012?f=h_latest -tom
\_ Because Clinton banned it until at least 2012. And he vetoed
ANWR in 1994 saying it wouldn't extract oil until 2007. What a
shame we don't have that 1M barrels per day right now. -emarkp
\_ We're using over 20 million barrels per day and importing
over 13 million of that. Maybe there would be a 10%
difference in the price of gas, maybe it would have been
a few months longer that would could pump out more
carbon emissions with impunity. So what? Pumping more
oil is not a long-term strategy and it's not even an
effective stopgap. Our oil production is down by 24%
since 1985 and our consumption is up by 10% in the past
10 years. Cheap gas just drives consumption, which only
delays the inevitable while causing further environmental
damage. -tom
\_ So we now know where you stand. The higher the gas price
the better, right? Right now demand is outstripping supply
by about 1 million barrels perday, which would be exactly
filled by ANWR. Go away tom, you're anti-civilization.
-emarkp
\_ Maybe he's anti-civilization-as-we-know-it, which is
unsustainable. Can the whole world live like us?
\_ The U.S. uses 25% of the world's supply of oil, and
produces 25% of the world's carbon emissions. Do you
really think that's necessary for civilization? -tom
\_ Right now, yes. We need to move away from burning
the oil (I'd rather it be used for plastic anyway),
but it's going to take decades. We need more oil for
now to sustain civilization until we can make the
switch. -emarkp
\_ How are we going to make the switch without the
crucial signal that higher prices provide? Do
you propose using legislation like the CAFE
rules and perhaps more? -ausman
\_ No, we need the higher prices, but the current
shock to the system is too fast. We need to
have a buffer to help it rise gently. (This may
be the one thing I agree with Obama about.)
-emarkp
\_ Okay, we are in agreement here. But if we had
say, ANWAR on line, I doubt that the oil
\_ Okay, we are in agreement here. But if we
had say, ANWAR on line, I doubt that the oil
companies would moderate the amount they
drill to try and control price shocks. Such
pump to try and control price shocks. Such
behavior would probably even be considered
illegal price fixing. Our best bet is to
try and talk the Saudis into pumping more.
I am not really sure why they are not doing
that already. Perhaps they don't really have
any more to pump. -ausman
\_ Oil companies don't have to moderate it,
the market will. Global demand and the
extraction of all the cheap oil is going
to push up the price. The artificially
capped supply, and the huge amount of it
in unstable regions is what is causing
the current spike. -emarkp
\_ In 1990, George H.W. Bush, calling himself "the environmental
president," signed an order putting virtually all the U.S.
outer continental shelf's oil and gas reserves in the deep
freeze.
\_ What does this have to do with the Global Warming Hoax?
\_ Yeah! We should tear that shit up and ignore the consequences!
Global Warming's a lie! The environment is out to get us! Kill!
Kill!
\_ Excellent false dichotomy sir! The Dem-controlled subcommittee
killed this yesterday, saying oil production off the continental
shelf isn't important. The NAS found that the offshore industry
is among the safest industrial activities in the United States.
Outer continental shelf operations are more than five times less
likely to cause a spill than oil tankers who are importing oil.
-emarkp
\_ "safest industrial activities": what does this have to do
with the environmental impact of offshore drilling? Cutting
down trees is safer than blowing them up with dynamite; so
therefore cutting down trees has no environmental impact?
\_ Actually, cutting down trees with dynamite is probably
safer. You can be far away when it falls down.
\_ Just come out and say that you favor high gas prices if
that's what you want. It's a reasonable position.
Claiming the 76b barrels of oil is insignificant is not.
\_ The environmental impact is less than shipping the oil. As
I wrote above. And, natural seeps account for 150 to 175
times more oil in the ocean than outer continental shelf
oil and gas operations. -emarkp
\_ It doesn't matter how much load the system is able
to handle. What matters is what happens when you
push them too far and the system falls down. A lot of
environmental issues work that way. It's classic
thrashing behavior.
\_ And other environmental concerns apart from leaks?
\_ Which are? (Serious question here. I could guess
what your concerns are, but would like rather to know
what you're thinking of.) -emarkp
\_ Drilling too deep might awaken Cthulhu.
\_ Drilling discharges; habitat impact; concerns
related to construction of oil-processing and
offshore drilling support infrastructure.
\_ Drilling discharges are currently less than
natural seepage. What habitat impact?
Drilling is in a very small area compared to
the coastline. Support infrastructure isn't
more than loading oil shipped from other
countries. -emarkp
\_ Your statement on drilling discharges is
not accepted as canon. Habitat is not a
function of size of geo. area but the
ecosystem in question. Your last statement
implies that we have to support offshore
continental shelf drilling somewhere so
it might as well be here. This is a false
choice. If there comes a time when drilling
can be done with no or even minimal impact
to the environment, I'll be much more likely
to support it. Until then, no.
\_ here's a more pragmatic question. At what oil price level
do you think all these environmental concerns will break down
and the stuff get extracted anyway?
\_ Your math is wrong, or your source is. The US imports 13.5M bbls/
day, which works out to 4.8B/yr, so 76B only lasts 16 years.
Even if you charitably throw Canada in there, we still import 4B/yr. |
| 11/22 |
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| en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Moores_law.svg edit Beschreibung Description English: Moore's Law v Intel processor transistor counts. In short: you are free to distribute and modify the file as long as you attribute its author or licensor. |
| en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_equation Linear equations can have one, two, three or more variables. A common form of a linear equation in the two variables x and y is y = mx + b,\, where m and b designate constants (the variable y is multiplied by the constant 1, which as usual is not explicitly written). The set of solutions of such an equation forms a straight line in the plane, which is the origin of the name "linear". edit Standard form Ax + By = C,\, where A, B, and C are integers whose greatest common factor is 1, A and B are not both equal to zero and, A is non-negative (and if A=0 then B has to be positive). The standard form can be converted to the general form, but not always to all the other forms if A or B is zero. edit Y-axis formula y = mx + b,\, where m is the slope of the line and b is the y-intercept, which is the y-coordinate of the point where the line crosses the y axis. edit X-axis formula x = \frac{y}{m} + c,\, where m is the slope of the line and c is the x-intercept, which is the x-coordinate of the point where the line crosses the x axis. edit Normal form y \sin \phi + x \cos \phi - p = 0,\, where f is the angle of inclination of the normal and p is the length of the normal. The normal is defined to be the shortest segment between the line in question and the origin. Normal form can be derived from general form by dividing all of the coefficients by \frac{|C|}{-C}\sqrt{A^2 + B^2} . edit Special cases y = b\, This is a special case of the standard form where A = 0 and B = 1, or of the slope-intercept form where the slope M = 0 The graph is a horizontal line with y-intercept equal to b There is no x-intercept, unless b = 0, in which case the graph of the line is the x-axis, and so every real number is an x-intercept. x = c\, This is a special case of the standard form where A = 1 and B = 0 The graph is a vertical line with x-intercept equal to c The slope is undefined. There is no y-intercept, unless c = 0, in which case the graph of the line is the y-axis, and so every real number is a y-intercept. y = y \ and x = x\, In this case all variables and constants have canceled out, leaving a trivially true statement. |
| en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function The exponential function is nearly flat (climbing slowly) for negative values of x, climbs quickly for positive values of x, and equals 1 when x is equal to 0 Its y value always equals the slope at that point. sciences, the term exponential function is more generally used for functions of the form ka^x, where a, called the base, is any positive real number not equal to one. This article will focus initially on the exponential function with base e, Euler's number. edit Properties Most simply, exponential functions multiply at a constant rate. For example the population of a bacterial culture which doubles every 20 minutes can (approximatively, as this is not really a continuous problem) be expressed as an exponential, as can the value of a car which decreases by 10% per year. Using the natural logarithm, one can define more general exponential functions. The exponential function (in blue), and the sum of the first n+1 terms of the power series on the left (in red). The exponential function (in blue), and the sum of the first n+1 terms of the power series on the left (in red). floor function: \,n = \left\lfloor\frac{x}{\ln}\right\rfloor. Having found n we can then find the fractional part u like this: \,u = x - n\ln. Having found m and n we can then produce y by simply combining those two into a floating point number: \,y = e^x = m\,2^n. The transition from dark to light colors shows that the magnitude of the exponential function is increasing to the right. The periodic horizontal bands indicate that the exponential function is periodic in the imaginary part of its argument. The transition from dark to light colors shows that the magnitude of the exponential function is increasing to the right. The periodic horizontal bands indicate that the exponential function is periodic in the imaginary part of its argument. Two special cases might be noted: when the original line is parallel to the real axis, the resulting sprial never closes in on itself; when the original line is parallel to the imaginary axis, the resulting spiral is a circle of some radius. edit Computation of exp for a complex z This is fairly straightforward given the formula \,e^{x + yi} = e^xe^{yi} = e^x(\cos + i \sin) = e^x\cos + ie^x\sin. Note that the argument y to the trigonometric functions is real. edit Computation of \,a^b where both a and b are complex This is also straightforward given the formulae: if a = x + yi and b = u + vi we can first convert a to polar co-ordinates by finding a \,\theta and an \,r such that: \,re^{{\theta}i} = r\cos\theta + i r\sin\theta = a = x + yi or \, x = r\cos\theta and \,y = r\sin\theta. Thus, \,x^2 + y^2 = r^2 or \,r = \sqrt{x^2 + y^2} and \,\tan\theta = \frac{y}{x} or \,\theta = \operatorname{atan2}(y, x). Now, we have that: \,a = re^{{\theta}i} = e^{\ln + {\theta}i} so: \,a^b = (e^{\ln + {\theta}i})^{u + vi} = e^{(\ln + {\theta}i)(u + vi)} The exponent is thus a simple multiplication of two complex values yielding a complex result which can then be brought back to regular cartesian format by the formula: \,e^{p + qi} = e^p(\cos + i\sin) = e^p\cos + ie^p\sin where p is the real part of the multiplication: \,p = u\ln - v\theta and q is the imaginary part of the multiplication: \,q = v\ln + u\theta. Note that all of \,x, y, u, v, r, \,\theta , \,p and \,q are all real values in these computations. Also note that since we compute and use \,\ln rather than r itself you don't have to compute the square root. Watch out for potential overflow though and possibly scale down the x and y prior to computing \,x^2 + y^2 by a suitable power of 2 if \,x and \,y are so large that you would overflow. If you instead run the risk of underflow, scale up by a suitable power of 2 prior to computing the sum of the squares. In either case you then get the scaled version of \,x - we can call it \,x' and the scaled version of \,y - call it \,y' and so you get: \,x = x'2^s and \,y = y'2^s where \,2^s is the scaling factor. Then you get \,\ln = \frac12(\ln(x'^2 + y'^2) + s) where \,x' and \,y' are scaled so that the sum of the squares will not overflow or underflow. If \,x is very large while \,y is very small so that you cannot find such a scaling factor you will overflow anyway and so the sum is essentially equal to \,x^2 since y is ignored and thus you get \,r = |x| in this case and \,\ln = \log(|x|) . The same happens in the case when \,x is very small and \,y is very large. If both are very large or both are very small you can find a scaling factor as mentioned earlier. This is because rotation of a single point through any angle plus 360 degrees, or 2\pi radians, is the same as rotation through the angle itself. So \theta above is not unique: \theta_k = \theta + 2\pi k for any integer k would do as well. The convention though is that when a^b is taken as a single value it must be that for k = 0 , ie. we use the smallest possible (in magnitude) value of theta, which has a magnitude of, at most, \pi . In this case we have \,\ e^{x + y} = e^x e^y \mbox{ if } xy = yx \,\ e^0 = 1 \,\ e^x is invertible with inverse \,\ e^{-x} the derivative of \,\ e^x at the point \,\ x is that linear map which sends \,\ u to \,\ ue^x . Hilbert spaces, the exponential function is often considered as a function of a real argument: \,\ f = e^{t A} where A is a fixed element of the algebra and t is any real number. Lie group that gave rise to it shares the above properties, which explains the terminology. In fact, since R is the Lie algebra of the Lie group of all positive real numbers with multiplication, the ordinary exponential function for real arguments is a special case of the Lie algebra situation. Similarly, since the Lie algebra M (n, R) of all square real matrices belongs to the Lie group of all invertible square matrices, the exponential function for square matrices is a special case of the Lie algebra exponential map. double exponential function The term double exponential function can have two meanings: * a function with two exponential terms, with different exponents * a function \,f = a^{a^x} ; |
| mediamatters.org/items/200806090012?f=h_latest Print Version MSNBC's Brewer uncritically aired Bush's misleading assertion that ANWR, continental shelf drilling would "give this country a chance to help" with gas prices Summary: MSNBC's Contessa Brewer uncritically aired President Bush's assertion that the "United States has an opportunity to help increase the supply of oil on the market, therefore taking pressure off gasoline for our hardworking Americans, and that I've proposed to the Congress that they open up ANWR, and open up the continental shelf, and give this country a chance to help us through this difficult period." However, federal researchers have found that any benefit from the oil exploration Bush suggests would not impact the US oil supply for at least a decade. During the June 9 edition of MSNBC Live, discussing Bush's trip to the US-European Union summit, Brewer said Bush "will push for help from our European partners on the oil front" and aired a video clip of Bush saying, "The United States has an opportunity to help increase the supply of oil on the market, therefore taking pressure off gasoline for our hard-working Americans, and that I've proposed to the Congress that they open up ANWR, and open up the continental shelf, and give this country a chance to help us through this difficult period." But Brewer did not note that researchers at the Department of Energy have concluded that the oil exploration Bush advocates would not yield any benefit for many years. OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017." assessing the impact of hypothetical legislation that would allow drilling in ANWR, the EIA "assumes that enactment of the legislation in 2008 would result in first production from the ANWR area in 10 years." The EIA stated, "The primary constraints to a rapid development of ANWR oil resources are the limited weather 'windows' for collecting seismic data and drilling wells (a 3-to-4 month winter window) and for ocean barging of heavy infrastructure equipment to the well site (a 2-to-3 month summer window)." The EIA continued: The assumption that ANWR oil production would begin 10 years after legislation approves the Federal oil and natural gas leasing in the 1002 Area is based on the following 8-to-12 year timeline: * 2 to 3 years to obtain leases, including the development of a US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) leasing program, which includes approval of an Environmental Impact Statement, the collection and analysis of seismic data, and the auction and award of leases. Exploratory wells are slower to drill because geophysical data are collected during drilling, eg, rock cores and well logs. Typically, Alaska North Slope exploration wells take two full winter seasons to reach the desired depth. Considerably more time could be required if the discovered oil reservoir is very deep, is filled with heavy oil, or is highly faulted. The petroleum company might have to collect more seismic data or drill delineation wells to confirm that the deposit is commercial. The 10-year timeline for developing ANWR petroleum resources assumes that there is no protracted legal battle in approving the BLM's draft Environmental Impact Statement, the BLM's approval to collect seismic data, or the BLM's approval of a specific lease-development proposal. stated that "despite the increase in production from previously restricted areas after 2012, total natural gas production from the lower 48 OCS is projected generally to decline after 2020." The EIA continued: "Although a significant volume of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources is added in the OCS access case, conversion of those resources to production would require both time and money. In addition, the average field size in the Pacific and Atlantic regions tends to be smaller than the average in the Gulf of Mexico, implying that a significant portion of the additional resource would not be economically attractive to develop at the reference case prices." From the noon ET hour of the June 9 edition of MSNBC Live: CONTESSA BREWER: President Bush is heading to Europe today for what will likely be his last visit there, at least while he's in office. The president will attend his final US-European Union summit. He'll push for help from our European partners on the oil front. com MSNBC/Microsoft-NBC 30 Rockefeller Plz 3rd Fl New York, NY 10112 (212) 664-4444 When contacting the media, please be polite and professional. Express your specific concerns regarding that particular news report or commentary, and be sure to indicate exactly what you would like the media outlet to do differently in the future. Corrections Corrections to our items 2008 Media Matters for America. Media Matters uses a taxonomy structure to help readers find information on various subjects. You can view all items by issue (the broadest category), view an issue's subissue, and even drill down to a particular topic. You can also look at items according to the related media personality, show/publication and network/publisher. Social bookmarking sites allow you to save links to interesting items and share them with other users. com, also allow you to discuss these items and promote them to wider audiences by "digging" the ones that you like. To start using these services, simply register with the site in question. |