Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2008:March:07 Friday <Thursday, Saturday>
Berkeley CSUA MOTD
2008/3/7 [Recreation/Dating, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:49372 Activity:high
3/6     /- dangit skippy, calm down
        \_ I have a lot of energy from not getting laid.
           \_ some of the world's wealthiest/powerful men were also
              0 laid guy and channeled their energy to work. Most of
              them didn't get married till they're really old.
              Bill Gates, Larry+Sergey, Ikea guy, etc...
                 Summary: "...most men don't achieve great success because
                 they dissipate their energies through over indulgence
                 in physical expression of the emotion of sex." Through the
                 art of sex transmutation, or channeling your sexual
                 energy into that of creativity and work, some of the most
                 famous men were able to achieve great success... George
                 Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Napoleon, Shakespeare,
                 Lincoln, Emerson, etc etc. So, there ya go. Sex makes you
                 dumb and lazy, ABSTINENCE IS COOL!
                 \_ Geez, ow could you forget Newton?
                 An energetic romp between the sheets the night before a
                 competition, some athletes and coaches say, can lead to
                 poor performance the following day.
                 \_ 'A slightly increased heart rate was present in the
                    aerobic test performed two hours post intercourse,
                    but no lingering mental or physical effects were
                    noted 10 hours after sex, leading the researchers
                    to conclude "sexual activity had no detrimental
                    influence on the maximal workload achieved and on
                    the athletes' mental concentration."'
2008/3/7 [Uncategorized] UID:49373 Activity:nil
3/6     need suggestion for windows program that will create slideshow
        from nested directory of multiple folders.  ok tnx.
2008/3/7 [Academia/Berkeley/CSUA/Motd] UID:49374 Activity:nil
3/7     Learn to use the fucking motdedit you dimwittid dim shit.
2008/3/7-9 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:49375 Activity:high
3/7     So what's the truth about oil prices? I'm sure supply is about
        where it was 5 years ago and I cannot imagine demand is that much
        higher and yet prices are almost triple. Is this a speculative
        bubble where investors are buying oil because they perceive the
        price of oil to be rising, is this manipulated by OPEC, or have
        costs of doing business risen dramatically?
        \_ What about it? People are already working on a solution.
           The free market will solve the problem.      -dimwit #1 fan
           \_ The problem is that it's not a free market for oil.
           More info than you can possibly want to know.
           Not directly addressed on that page is the fact that oil supply
           is not entirely fungible; as production in individual countries
           starts to fall, those countries tend to stop exporting oil before
           their supply totally crashes.  That shifts more of the demand to
           countries with riskier supplies like Iraq and Iran.  It also
           reduces the excess capacity available on the market, which makes
           the market more susceptible to shocks.
           And demand is rising, of course.  -tom
           \_ Not really that much info there. Most of it was historical.
              However, the article does allude to a $50/barrel "risk
              premium". Is that really justified? To me that's another way
              to say 'gouge' and that oil should realistically be about
              $40-50 barrel based on supply and demand alone.
              \_ Who is gouging whom?  Crude oil is a relatively free market.
                 Why do you think it should be $40-$50 a barrel?  -tom
                 \_ I am saying that based on supply and demand that is
                    where it should be. That's from your own article! So
                    there is a $50 "risk premium". That seems hard to
                    justify. I also can't believe you think oil is a
                    'relatively free market' when there is a cartel involved.
        \_ Demand is certainly up and the truth is that oil prices are mostly
           inelastic. So demand doesn't go down very much when prices go up.
           If you think about this, there are pretty dire consequences for
           the world economy, since the only other way to slow down oil
           consumption is to have a recession. I can dig up some Economist
           articles about this if you want, but you should try Googling
           yourself first. -ausman
           \_ I don't think these prices are driven by demand. Demand has
              not tripled. The curve is steep and there's no real reason
              for it. It's not unprecedented, but it's peculiar. I mean,
              if demand is that inelastic then why not charge $200 or $400
              per barrel? (Or why not charge $100 sooner when $35 was just
              fine not long ago?) A 'risk premium' to me means that
              someone is hoarding supply 'just in case they can't get any
              later'. I know the US was doing this with the strategic oil
              reserve. Is the US government the culprit and soaking up the
              supply at these prices? Most businesses tend to buy what
              they need and not keep massive inventories of oil. My
              opinion is that much of this rise is speculative just like
              the price of tulips or Miami condos. I am just wondering who
              the greater fool is here. "Oil prices will never go down.
              They aren't making more of it."
              They aren't making more of it." I noticed in a lot of my
              mutual fund portfolios that oil companies and suppliers are big
              contributors in terms of % of portfolio. This implies to me
              that Wall Street is parking a lot of my money there looking
              for the quick buck and I was wondering what happens when
              (not if) oil prices finally go down. Look at this graph:
              Pay attention to the "real" parts and not the forecast. As
              you can see both supply and demand have been near a plateau
              since maybe 2004 and yet price has risen.
              \_ I look at the same graph and I see that production exceeded
                 consumption for most of 2004-2006, then production started
                 to fall, but consumption did not. In fact consumption went
                 up. So prices going up is what a relatively inelestic demand
                 curve would predict. Why didn't they raise prices sooner?
                 Because there was someone there willing to undercut them if
                 they did. Why isn't demand going down to match supply right
                 now? Because the people consuming most of the oil (American
                 drivers and manufacturers worldwide) are willing to pay
                 more to get the oil they want. This stand off has to resolve
                 itself somehow, I agree, but I am suggesting that it only
                 can do so by a demand shock not a supply increase, hence a
                 global recession, at least until we can get our economy
                 less hooked on cheap oil. The other alternative explaination
                 is that we are just suffering for an underinvestment in
                 oil exploration back when oil was really cheap, like in
                 oil exploration back from when oil was really cheap, like in
                 the late 90s. If that really is true, then production should
                 ramp back up again RSN.
        \_ speculation, dollar weakness, venezualen hijinx
           \_ Dollar weakness is something I forgot about, but a very good
              \_ Yes, perhaps these speculators are just looking for an
                 inflation hedge.
2008/3/7 [Recreation/Dating] UID:49376 Activity:nil
3/7     When will the swelling go down? They just seem so massive,
        and like, they're ballooning out from the stitches (if that
        makes sense) so I just want to know what's average for that.
        When will the bruising go away? My breasts are like, almost
        completely bright really makes me queasy just
        looking at them :(
        When will the numbness go away? The sides of my breasts as
        well as a little bit up into my armpits and even the backs of my
        arms are numb to the point that they hurt when someone touches
        them. Ick.
2008/3/7 [Uncategorized] UID:49377 Activity:nil
3/7     Earth to German john, we need more trolls.
2008/3/7-9 [Recreation/Dating] UID:49378 Activity:kinda low
3/7     Married guys, want to get laid more? Pick up the dustpan:
        \_ 100% true.  My wife stays home, but the more I help, the more I get.
        \_ 100% false is my case. I do all the household chores and BFD.
        \_ 100% false in my case. I do all the household chores and BFD.
           \_ Ugh. Do you both work, too? Why are you even still married?
        \_ Works for the first week or so, afterwards it's not "new" and
           you're taken for granted. It's not how good you are, but the
           rate you improve that helps.
           \_ I find going to bed early helps as well.  Helping out around the
              house allows us to go to bed earlier...
        \_ I come home early, do all the chores and go to bed late, while my
           wife comes home late and goes to bed early.  I'm still not getting
           laid from my wife, but I kinda lost interest in it with her anyway
           after how she's been treating me.
           \_ Are you going to Nina her?
              \_ What's that?
           \_ Why does she come home late? Is she working late, or what?
              \_ She says so.  I'm pretty sure she's actually in the office
                 that late, but I'm not quite sure what she's doing there.
                 \_ Drop in, bring flowers or dinner or something else she
                    might like.  She's either there working and will dig that
                    or you can get moving on that divorce.
        \_ Just take her randomly around the house. Like if she's making
           breakfast just bend her over the kitchen counter.
2008/3/7 [Uncategorized] UID:49379 Activity:nil
3/7     Earth to dans, we need more trolls.
2008/3/7-9 [Uncategorized] UID:49380 Activity:nil
3/7     is Seal from Nigeria?
        \_ Is your access to wikipedia down?
2008/3/7-8 [Politics/Domestic/California] UID:49381 Activity:high 88%like:49391
3/7     CA judge outlaws homeschooling?
        \_ "The ruling was applauded by a director for the state's largest
           teachers union."  surprise, surprise, surprise.  -crebbs  [formatd]
        \_ You know, I don't have any use for religion, but I have even less
           for meddling government beauracrats. Hey Teacher! Leave those kids
           for meddling government bureaucrats. Hey Teacher! Leave those kids
        \_ "The ruling was applauded by a director for the state's largest teachers union."
           surprise, surprise, surprise.  -crebbs
2008/3/7-11 [Finance/Banking, Reference/RealEstate] UID:49382 Activity:kinda low
        Conforming loan limits are now $729,750 for the San Jose-Sunnyvale-
        Santa Clara area.  Even more for a duplex.  Expiring end of 2008.
        \_ This only lasts till end of 2008 right? It's suppose to
           save the presidency or something.
        \_ How do I find out my area?
        \_ "housing, it only goes up!"
           "They aren't making any more land!"
           "Buy now, before you get priced out!"
           \_ I am glad I bought in 2002, before I got priced out...
              \_ Where would you have gotten priced out?
                 \_ San Francisco, specifically Noe Valley
                    \_ Just wait.  Given real value decreases I'm sure we'll
                       be back around 2002 prices fairly soon.
                       \_ You are sure that Noe Valley is in for 50% drop
                          in real prices soon? I am sure you are wrong.
                          Are you one of those bitter renters, perhaps?
                          \_ No.  By the way, "bitter renter" accusations are
                             essentially a Godwin equivalent at this point in
                             the housing mess.  The last thing that any
                             renter is right now is bitter.
                             \_ Nonsense.  The bitter renters have been harping
                                on the motd for years.  If they had bought
                                back then they'd still be above their purchase
                                price and would actually be on their way to
                                owning something instead of supporting their
                                landlord's yachting adventures.
                                \_ It is not really a yacht, just a 32 foot
                                   wooden sailboat...
                                \_ Does that Koolaid taste good?
                                \_ Nationally, home equity levels are the lowest
                                   ever. They'd be renting from the bank like
                                   the rest of America.
                                   \_ Up 50% after the all the drops.  It
                                      tastes *great*!  Thanks for asking.
                                      How is your landlord doing lately?
                                      Better than you I'd wager.
                                \_ Nationally, home equity levels are the
                                   lowest ever. They'd be renting from the
                                   bank like the rest of America.
                                   \_ Which has nothing to do with prices and
                                      everything to do with individuals taking
                                      money out of their equity to buy toys.
                                      That has nothing at all to do with the
                                      economy, housing, or anything.  Just
                                      people being dumb and greedy.  I did
                                      not take out anything when I refi'd and
                                      every month I own a bit more.
                             \_ So are you or aren't you predicting a real
                                drop in Noe Valley home prices of 50% "real
                                soon"? Can you define real soon a little more
                                precisely please?
                                \_ Hard to tell, but I'd expect within a time
                                   frame of 5 to 7 years.  Depends a lot on
                                   whether the dollar continues to become
                                   more worthless, which I think is a good bet.
                                   \_ Home prices have traditionally done
                                      okay in a period of high inflation.
                                      Not great, but not that bad, especially
                                      if you have a mortgage that is getting
                                      inflated away as well. Where would you
                                      \- yes you are paying with inflated
                                         dollars, but some of you house
                                         apprecaition is nominal appreciation.
                                      rather keep your assets? Gold? And even
                                      if your rather pessimistic prediction
                                      comes true, I will have lived in a place
                                      for 10 years for the cost of mortgage +
                                      taxes + maint - tax break, which is
                                      already less than rent for me.
                                      \_ I'm sure you'll be fine, given that
                                         you didn't buy in the truly inane
                                         bubble periods and you probably have
                                         a pretty sane loan.  And I'll be
                                         a perfectly happy "bitter renter"
                                         on the sidelines until I need to buy
                                         and prices are a little more
                                         realistic.  But this conforming
                                         limit change certainly does not
                                         mean "buy buy buy."  For more on the
                                         requirements for "jumbo conforming"
                                         see here:
                                         (calculated risk)
                                         The DTI, LTV, and re-fi requirements
                                         seem daunting to me.  Won't be
                                         surprised if these end up costing
                                         more than a traditional jumbo.
                                         \_ I would not buy today either. Or
                                            in 2005-2006, when things were
                                            crazy. To tell you the truth, I
                                            was kind of nervous buying even in
                                            2002. But I guess it all worked
                                            out, barring a huge deflationary
                                            period (that is when people with
                                            $1/2M loans really get screwed).
                                            \_ I was certain I was buying
                                               at the top in 2001 and boy
                                               was I wrong. It's hard to
                                               predict tops/bottoms so just
                                               buy when you can afford to.
                                   \_ Certainly home owners will do better
                                      than renters in an inflationary economy;
                                      mortgage payment relative to income will
                                      decrease, while rent will not.
           By the way, from what I can tell from the rules on these
           "jumbo conforming loans," the price savings in the end as compared
           to normal jumbos will be a wash.
           \_ Bitter renter?
              \_ Happy renter, but thanks for the generic troll.  By the way,
                 the DTI requirement on these new loans means they aren't gonna
                 change much of anything, at least not in the Bay.
                 \_ I say bitter renter because you cared enough to check.  If
                    you're so happy what's it matter what the requirements are
                    or what effect they will/wont have on prices?
                    \_ Curiousity, and a general fear that the economy is about
                       to go in the dumper.  There are other reasons to care
                       about this stuff than house envy.
                       \_ It doesn't matter what the economy is doing: so long
                          as you have skills and some cash on hand, you'll
                          be fine.
2008/3/7-11 [Uncategorized] UID:49383 Activity:nil
3/7     Hey crebbs are you Mr. phuqm?
        \_ Why dont you email him to ask?
2008/3/7-11 [Transportation/Car, Transportation/Car/Hybrid] UID:49384 Activity:nil
3/7     Stuff like this can make the cities even more desireable places
        to live. Imagine urban mobility without sharing the bus or
        having to hunt for a parking place:
        \_ That "stuff" is called the bicycle, scooter, and motorcycle.
        \_ ya know, not everyone shares your vision of Liberal Urban Utopia.
           Despite the obvious rise and demand of city homes, the number
           of people moving to suburbs still outstrip the number of people
           moving to cities. The increase supply of city homes still cannot
           meet the growing needs of our nation. As long as suburbs are
           more affordable, there will be people moving to suburbs.
        \_ OMG, now my car would actually be a useless little dink box that
           every idiot has drooled over, left their condoms in, used to shoot
           up, and I'm going to get busted for the drugs and god only knows
           what that some idiot left in it before me.  Fortunately I dont have
           to carry anything bigger than a water bottle so this vehicle is
           just perfect!  I'm ready for Urban Utopia!
        \_ This is new??  How is this different from the Toyota PM that has
           been announced for a while?
2008/3/7-11 [Computer/Companies/Google] UID:49385 Activity:nil
3/7     The google adds on today are almost all for asian
        mail-order brides.  What is the keyword for these ads?  Of course,
        actually that's pretty good matching...
        \_ I get "High Achieving Women" "Careers for Women" and
           "Adventure Tours for Women" (and I am a guy!). Google must know
           something about the both of us that we don't know about ourselves.
           Oh duh, you mean the banner ad at the top. Yeah, I see that, too.
           Quite amusing when compared to the ad at the bottom.
           \_ For me the 4 at the bottom were mail order brides as well. -op
        \_ 500 error.  Too many motders trying to find a bride.
2008/3/7 [Uncategorized] UID:49386 Activity:high
3/7     The next time [person who disagrees with me] comes to Berkeley, let's
        organize a rotten egg + tomatoe target practice.
2022/06/27 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
Berkeley CSUA MOTD:2008:March:07 Friday <Thursday, Saturday>