11/04 Holy Jeebus. The CDN dollar hit $0.83 today.
\_ where's a good site to see exchange rates plotted as a function of
time?
\_ http://finance.yahoo.com/currency?u
\_ Move your assets into something non-US dollar denominated. I did
so two years ago and have doubled the S&P gain each year. The
dollar is in for a mighty drop soon.
\_ What has it been doing other than dropping?! Soon, indeed.
\_ You ain't seen nothing yet.
\_ What is the timeframe for an Argentina-style currency
crisis? Would it take 5 to 10 years or could it happen
more quickly?
\_ Why do you think it will drop more? It's dropped a lot already
in the last three months. -ignoramus
\_ Short answer: The Economist says so.
Long answer: huge and unsustainable budget deficit,
ditto with the trade deficit, an administration that
refuses to admit that this is a problem and in fact
intends to borrow even more, a Japan and China growing
weary of financing it, a real competing currency
(The Euro) for the world to put its capital into.
\_ How did the dollar do when confronted with
Reaganomics? The dollar is falling because the US
wants it to fall. It makes it easier to pay back the
$$$ we borrowed. We'll prop it up when we're ready.
\_ nah, it's the chinese and japanese who've been
propping it up, and they are the only ones who
can continue to prop it up. Dollar falling
ain't bad, makes our products more competitive.
US dollar once went down to 1.4 Singapore dollar,
then bounce back up to 1.84 Singapore dollar
during the gogo internet years, now it is at
1.67. I think it will fall back to 1.4 or lower
in the next year or two.
\_ Products more competitive? Hello, McFly. We're
running a HUGE trade deficit, which the dollar's
fall has done nothing to help. Currency crisis
here we come, although I happen to think it won't
really hit hard until W is out of office.
\_ Don't forget the international dollar glut and Russia
moving to Euros for intl. oil payments. -John
\_ One way to bet that the dollar will fall is to buy
an international short term bond fund like BEGBX
(some international bond fund are hedged to eliminate
exchange rate changes vs the dollar, but not this
fund). |
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