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| 11/23 |
| 2013/7/31-9/16 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:54720 Activity:nil |
7[31 Suppose you have a few hundred thousand dollars in the bank earning
minimum interest rate and you're not sure whether you're going to
buy a house in 1-5 years. Should one put that money in a more
risky place like Vanguard ETFs and index funds, given that the
horizon is only 1-5 years?
\_ I have a very similar problem, in that I have a bunch of cash
I need to use for a remodel in the next 1-3 years. I don't
know for sure what to do with it, but I think that the
stock market is too risky for something that you really
want. I am probably going to put it into CSJ. Let me know if
you come up with a better plan.
\_ why are you waiting for remodeling? It's not like the cost
of remodeling will fluctuate wildly like stock or even
real estate.
\_ It takes a while to get the architect to write the plans,
get it through planning, etc. We got the money by
taking a second out on our house and wanted to lock
in interest rates now. |
| 2013/7/29-9/16 [Finance/Investment] UID:54717 Activity:nil |
7/29 http://news.yahoo.com/study-finds-only-28-percent-173022359.html Only 28% of millionaires consider themselves wealthy. So it is not just my wife! \_ People have been using the term "millionaire" as a synonym for "rich" for a very long time. But there's this little thing called inflation. Having a million dollars in 1900 is roughly equivalent to 20-25 million dollars today. As time goes on, it becomes easier to be a millionaire, and that million buys less than it used to. Yet people fixate on that number. *shrug* \- I think for the purposes of this conversation it's more useful to compare to say 1970. Today paris hilton and i have the same iphone [although she probably has a more expensive case]. in 1900 you didnt have indoor plumbing, travel was risky etc. I think the real effect here is one of cohort. Also longer lifespan adds to insecurity, as does the state of medicine/medical expenses ... insurance doesnt make all of that go away. BTW, David Cay Johnston is always worth reading. \_ Ooooookay, one million in 1970 is about six million today. My point is unchanged. Are you happy now? \- this coming from the person whose point is "there is inflation" \- this coming from the person whose point is "there is inflation" \_ Not at all. Reporters going off about "ZOMG!!! Millionaires don't think they're rich!!!" is a bit silly, because we've been using the term "millionaire" as a synonym for "rich" for so long that today there's a substantial gap in meaning. Inflation, in this case, has made the words no longer truly synonymous, but people keep using them as synonyms anyway. \_ Pentamillionaire is too hard to say and would just confuse most people anyway. But even just one million US dollars is quite a lot in most of the US (and the world). \_ If you live in the bay area, if you had a million 1970 dollars you could retire and live comfortably for the rest of your life. If you have a million 2013 dollars, you're going to be going to work monday through friday and paying your mortgage. That's the difference. "Sounds big" isn't enough to retire on. \_ Sure and I am in that exact situation. But it is plenty to retire on in most of the country. It is even enough to retire on here, if you are happy with a modest, middle-class lifestyle and have no kids (or your kids are grown). \- The most notorious cases of the "whiney rich" which got a lot of press that I am aware of [such as the Plutocracy-apologist University of Chicago Business School Prof] were people with high *incomes* who were talking about how they were having trouble making ends meet saying they hardly had any money at the end of the year, but were including expenses like private school for 2 kids, saving $75,000/yr toward retrement, $15,000 vacations ... based on their car lease estimates, they were driving a pair of $100k cars etc. So they were people making say $250k/yr per couple and upset that 1. they couldnt vacation like their college friends who were making $2.5m year on wall street, 2. couldnt keep spending the same money on cars/restaurants/wine/hobby post-kids. As far as I know, when I was a kid, rich and poor had to stand in line at Disneyland. Now rich people can buy their way to the front ... so there is a lot of "plutocratization"/pecuniary externalities. But my point is you have to look at wealth and income. The south bay is filled with retired millionaire school teachers who bought houses in the late 60s and 70s for essentially 0 [$20k?]. But I agree the ones who bought investment property and thus are maybe worth $5m have a different lifestyle than the folks with "only" a teacher's pension and a $1.5m house. \_ Can rich people literally buy their way to the front of the line at Disneyland? Or is that a figure of speech? \_ Last time my wife and I went to Disneyland there was some kind of scheme where you could reserve a place in the short line. If you bought a regular ticket, like us, I think you were limited to just 2 short lines, but I recall there being a more expensive ticket that gave you access to 5 lines or something. \_ I do not think that this is true, but will see if I can find some info. I do know about the Fast Pass, but am pretty sure that everyone can only hold one at a time. \_ Plus, even Gilory Gardens, a non-profit park, has a similar scheme. \_ The sleazier way to go about this is to hire a disabled person to accompany you in their wheelchair so your group can bypass the lines. I read an article about tour guides doing this for affluent families at Disneyworld not too long ago. \_ Gee, I wouldn't want to put up with having a stranger in my vacation with my family just to get to the front of the lines, let alone paying for it. \_ I've stood in plenty of long lines at amusement parks. Standing in the summer sun for an hour and a half to two hours with young kids? I can see the appeal. It's hot, kids get bored in the lines, and if you can skip it, then you get to do more with your day. Do you consider a tour guide an intrusion into your vacation? \_ The even sleazier way is to rent your own wheelchair. |
| 2013/5/17-7/3 [Finance/Investment] UID:54679 Activity:nil |
5/17 Tech stocks at all time high & Bay Area traffic and housing crisis
is now worse than 2001. BUBBLE 2.0 BEWARE!!!
\_ This time it is no bubble, at least not yet. Wake me up again
when the Nasdaq hits an inflation adjusted record.
\_ I don't know if this bubble qualifies as a tech bubble or a bubble
at all. Last weekend I saw hiring signs at McDonald's, Macy's and
Lion Super (an Asian supermarket) for low-level jobs.
\_ hiring for McD and Macy's? LOL
\_ This is how you know things are booming:
http://blog.sfgate.com/hottopics/2013/06/06/talk-geeky-to-me-technology-helps-silicon-valley-sex-workers |
| 2013/5/9-7/3 [Finance/Investment] UID:54675 Activity:nil |
5/9 I'm stock newbie. Let's say I made $1000 in Jan 2012 and then
lost $1000 in Feb 2012, does that mean I'm not liable to pay
any tax given that I made $0?
\_ Yes.
\_ Are both long term gains/both short term gains? And I assume you
mean realized gains, i.e. you actually sold the stock in an
unsheltered circumstance.
\_ they are both short term gains (less than 1 year between
buy and sell). How can I do transactions in a sheltered
circumstance in the U.S.?
\_ IRA. Also, be aware of wash sale rules.
\_ ah ok. I was hoping you'd give some awesome advice
on offshore Swiss Nigeran transactions.
\_ Sorry man, I work in Financial Services now. -ausman
\_ tell us about the city, ausman
\_ Goldman Sachs "creative financing" division?
\_ Square Inc. -a
\_ I guess that's not too evil. |
| 11/23 |
| 2013/2/21-3/26 [Academia/StanfUrd, Finance/Investment] UID:54612 Activity:nil |
2/21 "Billionaire U: Why Harvard Mints Mega-Rich Alums"
http://www.csua.org/u/zaf (finance.yahoo.com)
All nine US schools on the list are private. Speaking of upward
mobility ... |
| 2013/2/17-3/26 [Finance/Investment] UID:54607 Activity:nil |
2/16 Stocks for the long run? Maybe not:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ar8utns
\_ um, ok, so what are better alternative investments?
\_ Real Estate? Gold? Bonds? CDs?
They all whooped stocks in the last decade.
I believe in a balanced approach. |
| 2013/1/25-2/19 [Finance/Investment] UID:54588 Activity:nil |
1/25 Is there a site that tells you the % of people shorting
on a particular stock? I'm trying to see if I can gauge
"confidence level", that sort of thing.
\_ http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/intc/short-interest
I'm not sure how to read this, I'm guessing the higher
"days to cover" the more short activities there are?
\_ http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=intc&submit=Short+Quote%99
\_ days to cover means how many days it'll take to cover assuming
the volume of the given day. it's a ratio of number of
shorts on that day divided by the volume that day.
the higher the number the more interest there are on
shorting. high means not confident about the stock. |
| 2013/1/16-2/17 [Industry/Startup, Finance/Investment] UID:54582 Activity:nil |
1/16 Fred Wilson says you should focus on the cash value of your
options, not the percentages:
http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2010/11/employee-equity-how-much.html
\_ Or at least, so says a VC trying increase his profit margin...
\_ A VC wants to keep as much of the stock for themselves (and give
as little to employees as possible). That maximizes their return.
The VCs also control the valuation process. When he says your
option grant should be based on the valuation, do you think he's
saying that because he has the best interests of the rank and file
engineers at heart? His suggestion also means that your equity
and your salary will be proportional. One of the biggest
bargaining points in startup salary negotiations is trading off
salary versus options (I'm not saying one direction or the other
is a good idea, just that it's an example of reality conflicting
with this guy's suggestion)
\_ If "you" is a founder then yes:
"Giving out equity in terms of points is very expensive" |
| 2012/12/21-2013/1/24 [Industry/Startup, Finance/Investment] UID:54568 Activity:nil |
12/21 http://techcompanypay.com Yahooers in Sunnyvale don't seem to average 170K/year. \_ Googlers average $104k/yr? Uh huh. \_ what is it suppose to be? \_ link:preview.tinyurl.com/a36ejr4 Google Sr. Software Engineer in Sunnyvale averages $193k in total pay, according to Glassdoor. This is about right. Perhaps they mean all Googlers, including Janitors and Bus Drivers. Google Sr. Software Engineer in Sunnyvale averages $193k in total pay, according to Glassdoor. This is about right. Perhaps they mean all Googlers, including Janitors and Bus Drivers. \_ Gee, I'm a Principal SW Engineer at a startup and I'm making only $128k/yr. \_ Sounds like you're probably relatively young, then. A lot of this also depends on how much experience you. If you have two employees with identical job titles, the one with 15 years of experience is going to be making much more than the one with 7 (even when they start passing out senior-sounding titles to the younger engineers) \_ How much equity are you getting? That might be worth even more than your salary. I am very senior and working at a startup and making about the same. But also getting lots of equity. \_ When I joined 6 years ago, I got 0.25% ISO which has been diluted to 0.09% at present. Combining with the bonuses throughout the years, my total ISO now is 0.16%. -- PP, class of '93 \_ That's not a lot of equity. If you're class of '93, you should have enough experience to command a higher salary than that. .16 isn't a generous enough grant to make up for it. That's "junior engineer hired after round C" equity. The next time you switch jobs, ask for a hell of a lot more money (like another $30-40k). \_ Depends on the companies valuation. Any idea what it is worth? 0.16% of $100M isn't that great. 0.16% of $1B is awesome. -PP 0.16% of $1B is awesome. \_ The equity percentages you should expect are based on what stage you join the company, and how senior you are. The valuation matters when you cash in, but it doesn't really provide any guidance for evaluating an offer. And to your point, it's even *worse* if the company is worth a billion, because he got ripped off even more. \_ In what world is an option on $160k of stock worth more than an option on $1.6M? \_ What I'm saying is that the percent equity you should expect is independent of the company's valuation. If a more appropriate amount of equity would be about .5%, then his poor initial negotiation caused him to miss out on even more money if the company sells for one billion than if it sells for $100 million. I'm obviously not saying .16% of $100 million is more than .16% of $1 billion. \_ I think that you are incorrect. So does Fred Wilson up there, but then again he would think that, right? Do you have a handy dandy chart that tells people how much equity they should ask for given the funding round the company is at and the employees level? Absent that, most of this is just talk. \_ At this point, I'm pretty sure I'm being trolled. Or you deserve what you (don't) get. Want to find some guidance? Google it yourself. You might want to look at typical capitalization tables while you're at it. \_ In other words, you are talking out your ass and don't want to admit being caught at it. Cap tables have nothing to do with what rank and file (or even executive) employees should get in equity compensation. \_ Oookay, Mr. I Can't Google: http://thinkspace.com/how-to-divide-equity-to-startup-founders-advisors-and-employees Scroll down to the second table, that looks about right for round A. And your take on capitalization tables is just precious. \_ From your own link: "The one number you should know about your equity grant is the percent of the company you are being granted (in options, shares, whatever – it doesn’t matter – just the % matters)." Oddly enough, this guy doesn't seem to care much about the cap table either. \_ The cap table describes the larger ecosystem, of which your option grant is a small part. It is not necessary to evaluate an offer, neither is it unrelated. I directed your attention to *one table* on this page. I don't care about the rest of it. If he says "only the percent equity matters", that's a bit naive, as it ignores the preference the VCs have taken. It was true 15 years ago, but not now. \_ It was the same then but they accoplish- this via other, more nefarious means. At least this is up front. \_ What should it be for round B, round C, etc? Do you have any insight? This is actually quite useful, thanks. _/ I guess I did all right then, since I got this much in a company that has just completed it's D round -!PP \_ The game has changed. You might want to read up on preference in startup term sheets, and why it means that your (common) equity probably won't be worth much (if anything), even if someone does buy your startup. Example: in the $500 million purchase of Xen by Citrix, the VCs split 380 milllion of the purchase amount, while the rank and file were left splitting $120 million. So if you're sitting there thinking "I've got .5% equity"...you probably don't. And when the VCs preference (not their investment) covers more than the purchase <DEAD>price...com<DEAD>mon shareholders get nothing. Working for equity at a startup today is *not* like the 90s. \_ Yeah, I had to learn about this stuff before I accpeted the offer. I am ready to take the risk that I get nothing if the value of the company does not increase. It is in general a bad idea to get a job for a company that is failing, but especially bad if much of your compensation is in equity. I assume that I get 0.5% of the value added *after* I join. Does that seem about right to you? Thanks for the advice. \_ Preference describes the extent to which the preferred shareholders (the VCs) get paid more than the common shareholders (the employees who got options) if and when the place sells. It has nothing to do with whether the valuation is going up or down, though the preference is likely to increase (get worse for you) across a down round (a funding round where the valuation is lower than the previous round's valuation). However, if you have onerous preference conditions in round A, they'll still be there after round B, even if B is an up round. In fact, the VCs who come in in round B will get that same preference over you, most likely. The amount of equity you have is the size of your grant divided by the number of shares outstanding. You should be able to find out both those numbers to evaulate an offer. Run from any company that won't tell you the shares outstanding. The percent of equity you have at the time of your offer is *not* guaranteed across time, and *will* go down. Additional shares will get created during a funding round (dilution), which means you own less of the company. You should expect an additional grant at that time to compensate, but they're unlikely to give you enough to keep you whole. And even if they did, preference means you probably don't really have what you think you have. \_ Here is Fred Wilson's take on the topic. I think he does a better job of explaining it than you did. http://preview.tinyurl.com/alm43rs |
| 2012/11/13-12/18 [Finance/Investment] UID:54531 Activity:nil |
11/13 http://www.google.com/finance?q=PINK Buy buy buy, get high high high! |
| 2012/9/20-11/7 [Computer/SW/Unix, Finance/Investment] UID:54482 Activity:nil |
9/20 How do I change my shell? chsh says "Cannot change ID to root."
\_ /usr/bin/chsh does not have the SUID permission set. Without
being set, it does not successfully change a user's shell.
Typical newbie sys admin (on soda)
\_ Actually, it does: -rwsr-xr-x 1 root root 37552 Feb 15 2011 /usr/bin/chsh |
| 2012/8/29-11/7 [Industry/Startup, Finance/Investment] UID:54468 Activity:nil |
8/29 Private equity.
\_ vultures.
\_ company flippers -- rename logo, change management, hype, sell |
| 2012/1/18-3/3 [Computer/SW/Languages/Java, Finance/Investment] UID:54290 Activity:nil |
1/18 I own a bunch of NFLX stocks bought at several different periods
(from high $200 all the way down to $80). I dumped a few and
still have a few. Why the hell is Reid Hastings still making
$500,000/year? How do I join the pending NFLX Class Action
Lawsuit?
\_ Why would you buy stock in a company run by a narcissistic
a-hole who mistreats his employees? Do you own Zynga stock
as well? You automatically join class action suits unless
you opt out of them.
\_ http://tinyurl.com/72s4cn8
\_ Did you hold on to enough of your stock to be in the black
now? |
| 2011/12/9-2012/1/10 [Industry/Startup, Finance/Investment] UID:54254 Activity:nil |
12/9 A public company (NASDAQ/NYSE) needs to publicly disclose
important information right? Is there a way to find data that
shows who owns most of the stocks, when they're dumping (to measure
their confidence in the company), and how many people are shorting?
\_ It has been a few years since I took a business organizations
course, but from what I remember, there isn't a requirement for
companies to diclose who their major shareholders are b/c this
can and does change frequently. You might be able to figure out
when a major inside shareholder is dumping shares b/c they
generally have to give notice of intent to sell shares in advance
of the transaction. But, there isn't any similar requirement for
outside sharehodlers. Shorting is similar, but most companies
don't allow insiders to short the companies stock.
\_ Go to http://finance.yahoo.com. Enter your stock symbol, click "Get
Quote". Under "COMPANY", click "Profile". Under "Key Executives",
look at the pay and exercised options table. Then click "View
Insiders", and look at the "Insider Transactions Reported" table.
\_ Wow that is really cool THANKS! I'm looking at GOOG out of
curiosity: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=GOOG
I find it funny that John Doerr exercises only 46 at a time.
This is not what I expect from multi-millionaires. LOL!
On the side, the page http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=GOOG+Profile
On the side, the page
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=GOOG+Profile
is wrong-- Neither Larry/Sergey are DOCTORS (they're just PhD
dropouts) and they exercised more than 0.00 shares.
\_ All this info comes from the 10-K and 10-Q that companies file. But
it takes a lot of reading to dig it all out.
\_ That table is what they exercised this year.
\_ All this info comes from the 10-K and 10-Q that companies file.
But it takes a lot of reading to dig it all out. |
| 2011/11/22-2012/1/10 [Finance/Investment] UID:54240 Activity:nil |
11/22 The 1% is hurting too:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-22/wall-street-unoccupied-with-200-000-job-cuts.html
\_ "... by the latest measures, inequality is actually lower than it
was four years ago, and well below its recent highs."
http://www.csua.org/u/uqd (blogs.wsj.com)
\_ This article is somewhat idisingenuous. The wealth gap is
\_ This article is somewhat disingenuous. The wealth gap is
larger than it has generally been historically, even if it
has come down a bit due to the recession.
\_ At least it's smaller than during the Dubya days. |
| 2011/11/21-2012/1/10 [Politics/Foreign/Europe, Finance/Investment] UID:54238 Activity:nil |
11/21 Forget about the top 1%. The real target should be the top 0.1%:
http://www.csua.org/u/us5 (news.yahoo.com)
"The Top 0.1% Of The Nation Earn Half Of All Capital Gains" |
| 2011/11/12-30 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:54225 Activity:nil |
12/12 What percent are you?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/10/19/what-percent-are-you
\_ A newer article on the same site: "The Myth of 'Record-High'
Inequality"
http://www.csua.org/u/uqd (blogs.wsj.com)
"But by the latest measures, inequality is actually lower than it
was four years ago, and well below its recent highs." |
| 2011/10/29-11/8 [Politics/Foreign/Europe, Finance/Investment] UID:54204 Activity:nil |
10/29 Remember that $16 muffin? Turns out it wasn't"
http://news.yahoo.com/muffin-didnt-cost-taxpayers-16-191255266.html |
| 2011/10/28-11/30 [Finance/Investment] UID:54203 Activity:nil |
10/28 "The 53%: We are NOT Occupy Wall Street"
http://www.csua.org/u/ul0 (money.cnn.com)
\_ More like the 26%:
http://tinyurl.com/3ddks2x
Meanwhile, just 26 percent said that money and wealth are
distributed fairly in America, while 66 percent say they aren't.
\_ You dumbass, the 53% comes from the % who pay federal income tax.
Like it says at the link, which you didn't read.
\_ Everyone pays taxes, stop repeating right wing drivel. Most
people support OWS, even your 53% that claim to pay
all the taxes.
\_ Yup. Most people support those wearing designer jeans and
having iPhones with data plans and protesting for weeks
about not having jobs, instead of looking for jobs. And
what a great way it is to stress their point by blocking
public transit distrupting the lives of hard-working
people within the 99% commuting to work instead of
disrupting the 1% commuting in their Mercedes and
Learjets.
BTW my start-up company lost one manager and one senior
QA earlier this year and two junior software developers in
the past month because they all jumped ship. My wife in a
retail company lost a junior accountant, also because of
ship jumping. Informatica is making $90k offers to fresh
CS grads and is getting turned down. My sister-in-law was
laid off from an architecture firm and hasn't been able to
find another full-time job in the field, but she has been
able to work freelance for another architect as well as
taking classes for life insurance agent license and then
working part-time in that field. While software and
retail and architecture and insurance are not
representative of all fields, at least this is indication
that things are not all bad for the 99%. -- OP
\_ Congratulations on being part of the 1%.
\_ Nope. By "my start-up company" I meant my employer.
I'm just a senior engineer. -- OP
\_ http://www.kiplinger.com/tools/income_rank
For me the resuls is "Your $XXX adjusted gross
income (AGI) puts you in the top 5% of earners."
Though I know the real answer is more like 2%,
the calculator is not very precise.
(hint, I want you to go to that link, put in
your annual income and report back the results)
\_ That link says "top 5%" for any income between
$160k and $340k. My family's combined
household income falls in that range. -- OP
\_ So someone whose family income is in the
top 5% of all Americans (and probably
in the top 2-3% of all Americans) is not
concerned about wealth inequality. What
a shocker.
\_ How did my "things are not all bad for
the 99%" become "not concerned about
wealth inequality"? -- OP
\_ You examples do not indicate that
things are not all bad for the 99%,
more like things are not too bad for
top 2-5%. The main complaint of the
OWS folks is wealth inequality, which
is obviously not one of your concerns.
is obviously not one of your
concerns.
\_ The two junior devs I mentioned
above had salaries in the $50-60k
range. One is single and one has
a non-working wife attending
college. So they would be "top
50%" according to your site. -- OP
\_ Okay. Why don't they go work
for Informatica? |
| 2011/10/24-11/8 [Finance/Investment] UID:54201 Activity:nil |
10/24 If I trade my 401K stock on a quarterly basis (reshuffle/reallocate),
are the gains considered capital gains? How much is taxed on 401K gains?
\_ You don't pay taxes on your 401k until you withdraw it.
\_ Plus you can re-invest your gains again and again without being
taxed first. E.g. if you invest $1000 and gain $100, you can
re-invest the whole $1100, without being taxed on the $100 first,
to gain another $110. Then you can re-invest $1210 to gain
$121. At the end you are only taxed once on the total gain of
$331.
\_ Presuming that the initial investment was not taxed, you will
actually end up being taxed on the whole $1331 as it is
withdrawn. Is this a Roth 401k? Depending on your age, a
Roth 401k might make more sense. A standard 401k is taxed
as income (not capital gains) as it is withdrawn, so it kind
of depend on how rich you expect to be in retirement. |
| 2011/10/24-11/8 [Finance/Investment] UID:54200 Activity:nil |
10/24 Another stock question. If 70% of the trades out there are bot
high frequency traded, then what is the point of those Moody ratings?
Is that to tailer for the other human trades?
\_ If you have been in a poker game for a while, and you still don't
know who the patsy is, you're the patsy. |
| 2011/9/21-11/8 [Finance/Investment] UID:54178 Activity:nil 63%like:54180 |
9/21 I'd like to run a test algorithm on the stock market. Where's a
good source to get stock market price (minute-per-minute resolution)
from?
I've been away procreating. Looks like wall is no more. Where have all of
the old-timers gone to chat/argue/share? How are we all communicating these
days. Sorry for the ignorant questions. :( -- joeking |
| 2011/8/7-27 [Finance/Investment] UID:54157 Activity:nil |
8/7 Can one of you stock market gurus explain the impact of the
S&P downgrade to AA+? What would this mean for bonds and stock
market in general?
\_ stock volatility is up, and I'm making money! -week trader
\_ made several $$$ yesterday from the panic.
I love volatility. -week trader |
| 2011/6/27-7/30 [Finance/Investment] UID:54131 Activity:nil |
6/27 What are your favorite metal trading platform? Is Kitco any good?
I heard that Kitco doesn't report to IRS whereas Etrade
automatically sends info to IRS. I'm wondering what I should use.
\_ I trade tapes on Ebay.
\_ I buy the physical stuff from a dealer in Chinatown who does not
even take my name, just my money. |
| 2011/3/31-4/20 [Finance/Investment] UID:54073 Activity:nil |
3/31 so uh why is the NSA investigating the nasdaq thing? wasn't it just
a AV update issue? |
| 2011/3/14-4/20 [Finance, Finance/Investment] UID:54058 Activity:nil |
3/14 42% of millionaires don't feel rich -PAM (Poor Ass Millionaire)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110314/lf_nm_life/us_fidelity_survey
\_ That's because they keep comparing their lives to rap videos.
\_ I blame nerdcore. |
| 2011/2/8-19 [Finance/Investment] UID:54032 Activity:nil |
2/8 Hey, are Day and Week trader guys still around? Just curious how it's
going. I was also thinking of doing some largely buy-and-hold
investing, can anyone recommend an online broker? I was thinking of
Fidelity because I have a 401k there, but I don't need anything fancy.
\_ market hasn't been volatile enough. I've made a few thousand
this year but I really miss the Bush era.
\_ So do I, i made gobs in andersen.
\_ Yeah, not the best market for short term trading right now.
Are you just holding for now?
\_ any comments on RHAT? was there some super scrt deal with ORCL
that happened to coincide with the start of the crash- if you
look at their stock's upswing.. |
| 2010/8/17-9/7 [Finance/Investment] UID:53925 Activity:nil |
8/17 Hey Market Timer, your method doesn't really work:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/510046-mark-seleznov/37562-market-timing-with-the-50-day-moving-average-dia-dow-jones-industrial-averages |
| 2010/8/12-9/7 [Finance/Investment] UID:53923 Activity:nil |
8/12 Holy crap. Feds will monitize the debt. Say goodbye to the dollar.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajcLVDMwN5To
\_ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amero
\_ Would Canada and Mexico want to devalue their currency by
being associated with us?
\_ "This has all happened before, and it will happen again."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wörgl#The_W.C3.B6rgl_Experiment
(Adoption of local currency with penalties to hoarders
stimulated job growth in a Depression)
\_ I for one welcome our new Chinese overlords!
\_ China has its own problems with its housing ponzi collapsing:
http://csua.org/u/rcz
\_ source is biased towards bad news. (not saying wrong,
just biased). Not sure how good of an indicator
Earnings to Sales price is for China since income there
is likely to be dramatically understated. Quickly
scanning, I didn't notice if there were rental to price
ratios. (Did you see any?). -crebbs
\_ Yawn, old news. Literally.
\_ I <3 how nobody comments on the documented solution to the
problem (the borgl experiment). |
| 2010/6/16-7/20 [Finance/Investment] UID:53863 Activity:nil |
6/15 Hey, is market timer still posting to the motd? Are you in or
out right now?
\_ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/track-record-of-the-death-cross-2010-07-09
"Overall, in fact, there has been no statistically significant
difference since 1990 between the average performance following
death crosses and all other market sessions" |
| 2010/4/20-5/10 [Finance/Investment] UID:53793 Activity:nil |
4/19 I'm thinking of getting Roth IRA. Which company is good/pleasant to
use? Etrade? Fidelity? Scottrade?
\_ Buy Silver. Gold is already overvalued. We're going to hit
hyperinflation the likes of which even God has never seen before.
\_ Local credit union.
\_ I recommend charlesSchwab
\_ Good in what way? What are your expectations? Do you expect to
trade a lot in this account? Are you investing in stocks, bonds, or
mutual funds? Do you need investment advice? Are you an
experienced investor/trader? Is this a rollover? Will you add to
this? Do you need local branches? Do you want to combine this
account with other existing accounts?
\_ If you are a DIY sort, E*Trade is good. If you want/need some
investment advice, I can point you at my broker, though the
Smith-Barney website is sadly lacking. -ausman
\_ how much commission does he take?
\_ Vanguard. If you choose their own funds (highly recommended), you
don't pay trading fees and their expense ratios are among the
lowest in the industry.
\_ Etrade has ATMs in pennsylvania. |
| 2010/1/27-2/8 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:53669 Activity:low |
1/27 Fear the Boom and Bust, Keynes & Hayek
http://econstories.tv/home.html
Simply awesome
\_ "Free market sucks, SOCIALISM RULES!" -general message
\_ So you didn't watch the second half?
\_ link:www.csua.org/u/q0s all I needed to see.
\_ That is a bizarre non-sequitor.
\_ I read "Bust" and "Hayek" and I thought it's about something else. |
| 2009/12/4-26 [Finance/Investment] UID:53566 Activity:nil |
12/4 Inspiring stories to counter negativity I see on motd.
A list of 10 wealthy people were *not* born of wealthy families:
http://www.mint.com/blog/investing/the-first-jobs-of-10-wealthy-entrepreneurs
Don't give up hope. If they can do it, so can you!
\_ Yeah poor Herb, his dad was only the General Manager of Campbell
Soup. He must have really suffered. A few of those people actually
come from humble beginnings, it is true, so it is certainly
possible in America to start poor and make it to great wealth,
or at least it used to be. Sam Walton is the classic example.
The vast majority of wealthy people were born to wealthy parents
though. Warren Buffett's dad was a stockbroker, Donald Trump
was born into a wealthy powerful family, etc.
\_ Agreed. As the child of the GM of the only Fortune 500 company
whose stock went up over the year 2008, poor Herb must have
really suffered. -- !OP
\_ It's perfectly ok! Most of the wealth disappears by the
3rd generation anyways. No need to be so cynical!
\_ I know that is an aphorism, but is it really true? Maybe in
the old days, but probably not anymore. |
| 2009/11/6-19 [Industry/Startup, Finance/Investment] UID:53509 Activity:nil |
11/6 Mark Pincus admits doing dirty things just to get revenue:
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/11/06/zynga-scamville-mark-pinkus-faceboo
Are there other examples of a successful company that
does dirty things initially just to get rich? I can
think of a few like the accusations of YouTube employees
uploading copyrighted videos to get views, or Yelp
extorting shops to pay up for ratings. What else?
\_ Pretty much the entire history of M$. |
| 2009/10/29-11/3 [Finance/CC, Finance/Investment] UID:53483 Activity:kinda low |
10/29 Hey troll that said that 2 CS profs should make $1M/yr...
http://www.sacbee.com/statepay
Most CS Profs make around $120K. Now it's your turn to talk about how
if you're not wasting your money on fancy dinners and investing it all,
you'd make over $1M on real estate and stock market investments.
\_ Go back and reread and apologize. 1/4 != 1
Did you get past fractions?
PS Our family income is usually less than that and our combined net
worth is $1M+.
\_ Your family income is less than $120K and your net worth is
over $1M? I'd say that's pretty atypical.
\_ No our family income is less than $1/4M. Usually. We had
two great years overall, but great in this case was 300k
And yes, my kids will be one of those lucky ones. Bastards.
\_ "Two college profeesors are either millionaires
or really bad with their money." Do you include home values and
retirement funds when calling someone a millionaire?
\_ Of course, why wouldn't you?
"... calling someone a millionaire..." heh
\_ I don't call people "millionaires" because it is a stupid
distinction.
\_ Spoken like a true Trustafarian. Ever worked an honest
day in your entire life? I am always amused when rich
people attempt to deny that they lead lives of
privilege. Be proud of your lucky sperm!
\_ I work with a woman who is married to an older
man. They make maybe $300K/year between them.
He bought his house around 1980 and it is now
paid for. It's in a marginal area, but it is worth
about $1M because of all the upgrades they have
done to it. They live a frugal lifestyle with
only a few extravagances. They just bought their
first new car ever 3 years ago after sharing
a clunker that broke down all the time for a
decade. They still only have one car (a Nissan)
between them so they have to carpool. What
cracks me up is when they talk about 'the rich
people' moving into their neighborhood as in
'the rich people who moved in next door have a
Corvette'. They have no debt, a paid for house,
and a high income. I keep telling them: "You
guys *ARE* the rich people" and they don't see
it that way. It drives me nuts.
\_ You have pretty much described my wife. We
have $100k in savings, $200k in bonds, $300k
in our retirement accounts and a $1M house that
is about halfway paid off and she still insists
on clipping coupons and taking the bus. It kind
of cracks me up.
\_ listen to your wife, and stay together.
my mother is someone who pays credit card
with another credit card. i think she is
as typical of an American as it gets, and
that's just pathetic.
\_ Yeah, I would rather have a thrifty wife
than the other kind as I am pretty thrifty
myself, but it occasionally is annoying.
\_ how is it annoying than spending like
a typical white woman?
\_ I don't understand your question.
Can you reword it please?
\_ You suck, FIE DOLLAH!
\_ I don't know about him, but for
me it's annoying when, say, my
coworker has to ask for a ride
because her husband has the car
or it's in the shop. Get a freaking
1992 Corolla to have as a second car
already. Thriftiness is good, but
there's a point where it impacts
your life unnecessarily. That's
when it turns stupid. I don't
want to be one of those old men
who rummages through trash cans and
wears the same pair of pants every
day even though he has $10M in
the bank. You can be too cheap.
\_ Maintaining two cars is
wasteful; asking for a ride
in those cases where one is
needed is simply allocating
resources more efficiently. -tom
\_ No, what it is is cheap. No
one said to buy a brand new
SUV, but with that kind of money
it's ridiculous to drive around
in an old broken down car for a
decade that you share with
your husband. It was so bad
that they were afraid to drive
far from home for fear of
breaking down. That impacted
their lifestyle in favor of
saving a few bucks. There
are a lot of things we do
that are wasteful. I'm sure
I can identify plenty of
waste in your life if given
the chance. Life is not
about allocating resources
efficiently. That's death,
which is very efficient.
\_ Life is certainly not about
collecting as much stuff as
you can, either, and it's
not about having all the
stuff you could ever need
to remain independent in
all situations. You know,
some people would rather
occasionally ask for a ride
than to have the hassle
and expense of owning a
car they don't really need.
-tom
\_ why can't you all just agree
that earth is overpopulated
and that your deaths would
all contribute to a better
well beings of everyone
else? DIE MOTHER FUCKERS!
\_ The most recent hilarity is when
we took a flight to LA and my wife
refused to take a $5 cab fare to
BART and insisted on Muni, which of
course did not arrive. So we carried
four bags, a stroller and two kids
a mile to the BART station. Stuff
like that. Of course, we are too
cheap to own a car.
\_ Sometimes it is limited to liquid assets. That is the
definition that, say, many banks use to identify high
net worth individuals. "Total assets excluding primary
residence" is another, which allows illiquid assets
but discounts your home.
\_ Yeah banks are only interested in identifying potential
customers, so they only want to know how much they can
get fees from.
\_ "millionaire" describes one's net worth, not one's annual
earned income. -- !PP
\_ Partha Banjeree doesn't show up on this list. I guess LBL is part
of DoE and not UC.
\_ psb's salary is classified information
\_ The fact that psb's salary is classified is classified. |
| 2009/10/12-21 [Finance/Investment] UID:53447 Activity:nil |
10/12 http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-15-amazing-stock-market-charts-2009-10#firstremember-stocks-for-the-long-run-1 15 Stock Market Charts that *may* be interesting to look at. It's not mind blowing amazing in any sense but... who knows, maybe it can be useful to grow your portfolio. \_ Are you market timer guy? Didn't the 50 day PMA cross the 200 day PMA a long time ago? |
| 2009/10/1-22 [Finance/Investment] UID:53422 Activity:nil |
10/1 http://www.cesmes.fi Bubble bubble, multiply and change colors! |
| 2009/9/18-29 [Computer/SW/Security, Computer/SW/Unix, Finance/Investment] UID:53379 Activity:nil |
9/18 In Linux, is there a way for root to change the "nice" value of an
existing process? thx.
\_ Yes. man renice. |
| 2009/7/24-8/6 [Finance/Investment] UID:53197 Activity:nil |
7/24 Stock trading question: If on Monday I sell FOO for $20000 and
on Tue I buy BAR for $10000 with the "unsettled" money from
the Monday FOO sale, the only complications are if I sell BAR
before the FOO settlement on Wed/Thr, right? If I hold BAR
until after the FOO settlement, then there is no issue on a cash
account? Also, if I transfer in $10000 after the purchase on Tue,
does that remove the restrictions?
\_ Just trade on margin and forget all these complications.
"I don't know."
\_ Why not just convert your account to a margin account? I
highly recommend it. It costs nothing if you don't buy on
margin. The trade will settle T+3, which is Thursday. In a cash
account you can buy BAR, but you cannot sell it before
Thursday. If you deposit additional funds before Thursday
and sell BAR before then you will get a "good faith" violation.
Three in one year will result in your account being placed on
restriction. If you don't deposit the funds at all you will be
freeriding and you will be restricted immediately. What did your
broker tell you? I'd go with what he said. You are paying
him for this advice. I used to worry a lot about all of this
stuff and my trading was really inflexible, but now that I
have a margin account I don't even think about it. |
| 2009/7/23-29 [Finance/Investment] UID:53188 Activity:nil |
7/23 Jobless rate is at an all time high but the stock market is on
steroid. What are some explanations?
\_ No, it isn't. The stock market is a leading indicator, while
the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.
\_ This is true; however, it is worth noting that the stock
market can be wrong. It rebounded 60% off its lows in
1929-1930. The question isn't unemployment, the question
is credit availability and liquidity; if we avoid any more
bank failures, things will probably normalize relatively
soon. -tom
\_ Are we out of recession yet? Is the economy going through
a second housing boom?
\_ http://www.businesscycle.com/resources
We will be out of recession in Q4, if not sooner.
No second housing boom is required.
\_ Uncertainty breeds volatility. The last month is an upswing, but it
may not be a long-term trend. |
| 2009/6/4-5 [Finance/Investment] UID:53077 Activity:kinda low |
6/4 Hey market timer guy, are you ready to get back in? The Nasdaq
50 day SMA will cross the 200 today, it looks like and the S&P 500
is right behind it. Good job missing the big drop, btw.
\_ I'm looking for a 1% overshoot, not a cross, and I'm not investing
in tech (in my long holdings at least), which means I'm not tracking
NASDAQ. In fact, doing this for NASDAQ would have bitten you in
'05.
\_ So WHEN is a good time to buy SILVER? I AM ITCHING TO BUY SOMETHING
\_ You're talking about your speculative account right?
\_ I have some wooden nickles I will give away real cheap. |
| 2009/6/3-5 [Finance/Investment] UID:53073 Activity:moderate |
6/3 My SLV has been doing much better than GLD. Is it now time to sell?
\_ In general, you should hold on to winners, in my experience. There
is nothing wrong with taking a little profit, or diversifying, but
the most bone headed trades for me ever have been selling stocks
that have gone up 100%, just to watch them go up another 200%.
\_ The dollar is tanking. Hold on to both.
\_ I don't have a lot of SLV, is it time to buy? I'm itching to
buy right now but not sure if it's the right time. |
| 2009/5/26-6/1 [Finance/Investment] UID:53041 Activity:nil |
5/26 I got multiple emails from multiple sources about the resurgence
of the stock market. Case in point, Charles Schab: "Looking for
Signs of Midyear Traction": A Town Hall Webcast with Liz Ann
Sonders and special guests. Are we ready to get back into the game?
\_ Nouriel Roubini sez: Yer all fucked! For years!
http://tinyurl.com/o8nx7q (forbes)
Notice how Goldman Sachs released their green shoots memo in March.
Perfect timing, eh?
\_ GS is good, hadn't you noticed. ECRI called a bottom in March,
too, the bastards. They are predicting a rapid recovery from
here, with better than expected growth in Q3 and Q4.
\_ I suppose it doesn't hurt that Goldman dwarfs all other
broker/dealers in program trading volume on the NYSE
\_ Probably means it is a good time to sell. |
| 2009/5/22-29 [Finance/Investment] UID:53031 Activity:nil |
5/22 Dollar is fucked. Should I buy or sell Silver? I'm not touching
GLD, it's just unpredictable.
\_ I bought British pounds. Wish me luck.
\_ Don't buy money. Buy stock in a safe company that is sold in
the currency you want to buy.
\_ The problem is that Obama might nationalize it next week and
then give your value to the unions.
\_ Obama might nationalize British companies? He is more
powerful than I ever imagined.
\_ I actually own stock in GSK as well, but it's safer to own
the currency because the company's own fortunes will play
on the stock price.
\_ You deal with short-term instability by purchasing or selling over
time. GLD is still the best hedge against inflation or currency
collapse. Silver can often be found locally, however.
\_ There is an arguement to be made that you should primarily want
to hold the currency that your future obligations are going to be
redeemed with. So unless you are planning on leaving the country,
it is less risky to stock up on dollars. But if you are really
certain that you know which way currency is going to move, why not
just trade the FX markets? Lots of people have lost their shirt
doing this, but this is how Soros made his billions. |
| 2009/5/21-29 [Finance/Investment] UID:53025 Activity:nil |
5/21 wtf dude, not again (US dollar index)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX
\_ You should definitely expect the dollar to fall further from here.
Plan accordingly. -tom
\_ what i've read is that commodity and production driven currencies
not impaired by large debt obligations, may be a good investment,
specifically for Asian economies ex-Japan. is there anything
that the USG could do to thwart this hedge? What do you think?
\_ There are tons of things the US government could do, and
our economies are linked anyway. But I think it's a safe
bet that the way we're printing money, the dollar is
going down. -tom
\_ yup, that is why Chinese was so pissed during that G20
summit. Either way, Chinese are fucked. kngharv
\_ They can look at themselves in the mirror. They
pinned their currency artificially low,
effectively running every transaction at a loss.
Now those losses are becoming realized.
\_ Why are they fucked? You are assuming that the central
bank is investing in dollars to make a profit. They
aren't, they are trying to keep people working, which
they are doing a good job at. |
| 2009/5/12-20 [Finance/Investment] UID:52986 Activity:nil |
5/12 March lows were a "textbook bottom", and you should dollar cost
average into any pullbacks in the market, says Charles Schwab
Chief Investment Officer. BUY BUY BUY you fucks!!
http://tiny.cc/EhVXf (yahoo.com, video)
\_ If someone's mentioning dollar cost averaging, they're trying to
sell you something. -tom
\_ What are they trying to tell you?
\_ Usually, "give me money." -tom
\_ link:tinyurl.com/r7gloh
Classic Bottom (SFW?) |
| 2009/5/2-6 [Academia/Berkeley/CSUA/Motd, Finance/Investment] UID:52937 Activity:low |
5/2 What's up with this mailing list? Can't we do it like we did in the
90's and have discussions on MOTD and the wall?
\_ Speaking of the '90s, when can we start having '90s parties?
\_ http://www.myspace.com/debaser90s
Someone beat you to it.
\_ We should keep doing it in the facebook, with the twittering.
\_ It is INSSAAAAAANE. The mailing list activity is ridiculously
intrusive!
\_ You're ridiculously stupid. Unsubscribe or change it to digest and
stop your whining.
\_ You're ridiculously stupid. Unsubscribe or change it to digest
and stop your whining.
\_ you're a fucknut. i still have the right to complain about
the stupidity of the mailing list content/activity.
\_ I get way more email than you can possibly imagine. forward it
why? just curious. I _/
always wonder about statements
like this, and how much the
stater gets and why.
\_ I'm just making fun of Christine's
whining. Don't take me seriously.
all to Gmail, use a label for CSUA, deal with it. quit whining.
\_ See latest mail. I'm thinking of changing it to digest. That should help
those of you who are too lazy to change it yourself. --t |
| 2009/4/30-5/6 [Reference/Law/Court, Finance/Investment] UID:52927 Activity:nil |
4/30 So I have been posting reviews to Tripadvisor. They are usually good.
A couple have been poor. I noticed that the poor ones tend to
recieve poor marks for "helpfulness". I think that is someone at
the establishment marking my poor review as "unhelpful". What
really irritated me is when my honest and accurate review was
removed from the site. I got a letter from Tripadvisor saying that
I had violated policy by "smearing" the establishment. (I actually
rated the place 3 stars but related a poor experience I had.) So
Tripadvisor acts under pressure from property and restaurant owners
to remove bad reviews apparently. This calls into the question the
value of any reviews on that site. This is certainly unethical,
but is there a basis for a lawsuit?
Article I found:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/travel/chi-travelquest_0525_r_lmv_pmmay25,0,5120261.story
\_ See also the East Bay Express story on yelp.
http://www.eastbayexpress.com/gyrobase/yelp_and_the_business_of_extortion_2_0/Content?oid=927491&page=1
-tom
\_ Good article, thanks.
\_ I have a friend at yelp who is one of those people who is so
earnest he pretty much can't tell lie. (It's kind of embarassing
how earnest the guy is.) His take on that article was that
it is 100% bullshit. That said, yelp reviews suck so hard
they are useless.
\_ The guy who owns Mama's Cafe told me he's repeatedly
received calls from Yelp saying that they'll "re-
prioritize" bad reviews in exchange for donations.
\_ This is my least favorite Yelp reviewer on planet:
http://www.yelp.com/user_details?userid=G3bUPrjE__b-jKpYASYFxg
\_ Why? Looks like he gives a lot of relevant information.
\_ how nice:
"It's like the creepy math nerd from high school:
I wouldn't hang out with him if I didn't have
to get his class notes! "
\_ Dude probably was the creepy math nerd.
Anyway, I am not on Yelp to make friends. I want
lots of accurate info and he seems to provide more
than average.
\_ What would you sue them for? They haven't caused you any harm.
IANAL, but you have to have some kind of personal stake in something
to file a lawsuit.
http://www.lectlaw.com/def2/s064.htm
\_ "I suppose a disgruntled business could bring an
unfair-trade-practices-type lawsuit of their Terms of Service,
but it has to hinge on whether they're saying one thing and
then are doing something else. That's the only way there could
be any legal action." |
| 2009/4/12-15 [Politics/Domestic/President/Reagan, Finance/Investment] UID:52845 Activity:nil |
4/11 Look at the great things that happen when we stop overpaying
finance workers:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/12/weekinreview/12lohr.html |
| 2009/4/7-13 [Finance/Investment] UID:52813 Activity:kinda low |
4/7 Along the lines of Indiana Jones, I recently watched the two new
Bond movies back-to-back (Casino Royale and QoS). Most critics
liked the first and were lukewarm on the second. However, I
thought QoS was far more enjoyable. I'm not a big Bond fan, but I
like Daniel Craig and his brooding, reckless Bond without a lot of
gadgetry appealed to me.
\_ CR was one of the best Bond movies I've seen. QoS was a meandering
mess, with a bizarrely placed crotch shot in a PG-13 movie.
\_ Didn't understand that shot at all, but I found CR to be
rather boring and unbelieveable with no real villain. The
evil mastermind's plan is to win a poker tournament and if
he wins he gets back all the money the bad guys had to begin
with and if he loses then he's deadmeat. Not much was at
stake. Vesper subplot was ridiculous. She drowns herself even as
he has forgiven her?. I admit to being confused by QoS, but
he has forgiven her? We know M's assertion that she made a
deal for his life is false. They spared him because only
he knew the password. All of the screentime in Africa was a
complete waste. I admit to being confused by QoS, but
the directing was much better and there was a lot more action.
How can you not like the CIA guy being on the same plane as
the villain or the shot of the two of them, bloodied and in
formalwear, walking through the desert? Visually, QoS really
grabbed me. CR was more like a typical Bond movie.
\_ Vesper is from the book Casino Royale and in the book
she kills herself for the same reasons. I did like how
QoS built on the story from CR and actually felt like
a sequel.
\_ Well, I realize it's based on a book and so they had
to somewhat stay true to the book. That doesn't mean
it makes sense. It seems like a contrived way to give a
tragic backstory to Bond and also prevent Vesper from
spilling all the details about the people she worked for.
\_ The purpose of the Madagascar scene, apart from simply being
an awesome parkour chase, was to establish that Bond was look-
ing for the funding behind the bomber. The bomber's info leads
to Dimitrios and Dimitrios leads Bond to Le Chiffre. Le
Chiffre's original plan is to short the airline stock and then
have Dimitrios blow up their Airbus; Bond foils that, so now
Le Chiffre falls back on a poker game to get his clients'
money back. Bond's investment in seeing Le Chiffre defeated is
first and foremost one of pride and sadism: two qualities that
Ian Fleming's Bond had in spades. Le Chiffre's own clients
recognize that he's flailing; it's why they pay him a visit
at his hotel and threaten him with a machete.
But base defense of CR aside, I thoroughly enjoyed both films.
I particularly enjoyed how QoS picks up minutes after CR ends.
I wasn't thrilled with the Tosca montage, but the rest held up
very nicely. Looking forward to the third movie. |
| 2009/4/3-12 [Science/Electric, Finance/Investment] UID:52796 Activity:nil |
4/3 My friend keeps trying to get me to buy Silver as it's $13/oz while
gold is around $900/oz which is a huge disparage considering the
comparative rarety of silver and it's industrial uses. He thinks that
the current price is artificially kept low. Anyone know anything about
these claims? Most of the places he points me to sell silver and gold..
\_ Precious metals are a hedge against inflation. There's really no
difference between silver and gold except the price/oz and that gold
doesn't tarnish.
\_ The belief is that silver will be worth closer to gold. And it's
the copper in sterling that tarnishes, fine silver or argentinium
hardly tarnishes at all.
\_ Could be. Could also mean gold prices will fall. Why didn't
he buy silver when it was $4/ounce not that long ago?
$13/ounce is not all that cheap.
\- your friend's reasoning is stupid. i would avoid discussing
finances with him.
\_ Second what this guy says. The valuation on both gold and
silver is more psychological than it is driven by industrial
use. Can you predict when the herd will abandon gold/silver
like when the herd abandoned the stock market? If so, then
you can make money on ANYTHING. If not, avoid bubblicious
investments. |
| 2009/3/26-4/2 [Finance/Investment] UID:52761 Activity:kinda low |
3/26 Can someone explain the 14% gain described here. I don't understand
the basic math being used. What if the portfolio returns 20%/yr?
http://theweek.com/article/index/94743/The_crisis__and_Geithner_plan__explained
\_ I don't think you can explain it without knowing what the split
in profits between the government and private holders is. It's
obviously not 50/50. It looks like maybe 85/15 to get the
number Geithner quoted. This makes sense because they only
contributed 7% to begin with.
\_ My understanding was that it was a 50/50 split (at least on the
up front money side) with the gubmnt putting up 7% and the
private money=7%. The other 86 or 85% (maybe 7.5% above) is loans
gauranteed by gubment, that are basically uncompensated. (Though
there may be some premiums on the interest rates)
\_ Can't be or the math doesn't work. If private money puts
up 7% and the fund returns 10% then there won't be a 14%
gain. The math works if the profit is split 85/15 after
the government takes its share off the top. Are you
saying its a 3 way split of 70/15/15?
\_ I don't think you can explain it without knowing what the split
in profits between the government and private holders is. It's
obviously not 50/50. It looks like maybe 85/15 to get the
number Geithner quoted. This makes sense because they only
contributed 7% to begin with.
\_ My understanding was that it was a 50/50 split (at least on the
up front money side) with the gubmnt putting up 7% and the
private money=7%. The other 86 or 85% (maybe 7.5% above) is loans
gauranteed by gubment, that are basically uncompensated. (Though
there may be some premiums on the interest rates)
\_ Can't be or the math doesn't work. If private money puts
up 7% and the fund returns 10% then there won't be a 14%
gain. The math works if the profit is split 85/15 after
the government takes its share off the top. Are you
saying its a 3 way split of 70/15/15?
\_ Here's the closest that I could come up with (all #s in $B):
Return on 500 @ 9% = 45 @ 4% = 20 @ -1% = -5
3% FDIC Interest on 430 = 13 = 13 = 13
Gross Profit = 32 = 7 = -18
50% Treasury "Cut" = 16 = 3.5 = -3
2% PE "Mgmt Fee" = 10 = 0 = 10?
PE Return = 6 = 3.5 = -25
% Return (Return/35) = 17% = 10% = -5/7
Can't figure out how to get to 14% (or really, the -5/7).
Can't figure out how to get to 14% (or -5/7). |
| 2009/3/25-26 [Finance/Investment] UID:52754 Activity:nil |
3/24 What exactly does it mean when X currency is "pegged" to Y currency?
How does this magical monetary voodoo work?
\_ I think it means the government of X actively trades currencies X
and Y in order to maintain an almost constant exchange rate between
X and Y.
\- the peg is the commitment. what you describe above is
"sterilization" [to offset in/out flows].
\_ I think the way China does it was buying a lot of treasury note.
I was told that if China is "manipulating" the currency, then,
USA is the co-conspirator who allow China to buy these treasury
note. USA could of easily refuse to sell China treasury note
and RMB is going to rise automatically.
\_ but then who what suckers would buy the US treasury
notes? There's a lot of debt the US needs to carry, and
someone needs to buy it! |
| 2009/3/25-4/2 [Finance/Investment] UID:52752 Activity:nil |
3/24 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=agdquPfpIk78& My favorite quote: "It's tough to live in New York City on much less than $400,000 a year, Orringer says, especially if a family has two kids in private school, where tuition can exceed $25,000 a year. " Hahahahaha. |
| 2009/3/23-30 [Finance/Investment] UID:52746 Activity:nil |
3/23 China announces it will continue buying Treasuries, but on same day,
also releases its own proposal for an eventual transition from USD to
SDRs as world's reserve currency
\_ Url? What are you spewing about? Special Drawing Rights?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Drawing_Rights
\_ Pointless trivia: if an airline loses your luggage, the
limit of their liability is defined in terms of SDRs.
Unfortunately I have personal knowledge of this. -tom
\_ Explain. The contract I read when I flew recently said
they will cover up to $3000 and did not mention SDR
at all.
\_ Depends on the flight (whether it crosses a border or
not) and the airline (they can agree to reimburse more
than the Montreal Convention requires). But for most
airlines and international travel (including Canada
and Mexico), the limit is 1000 SDR. -tom
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Convention
\_ http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7851925a-17a2-11de-8c9d-0000779fd2ac.html
\-if you are interested in currency areas and global currency,
you may be interested in this talk by RMUNDELL (mundell-fleming
model, optmal currency areas, nobel prize etc)
http://www.normangirvan.info/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/mundell.pdf
i like the global currency symbol [the o with the two bars] |
| 2009/3/22-30 [Finance/Investment] UID:52743 Activity:nil |
3/22 The Big Takeover
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/print |
| 2009/3/19-23 [Computer/Rants, Finance/Investment] UID:52733 Activity:low |
3/19 Communist/Socialist leadership of China, Russia, India, Brazil issue
joint report to pending G20 meeting for a discussion on how to replace
the dollar as the world's reserve currency
\_ with what? rubles? euro? both are terrible.
\_ SDRs, I believe
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htm
\_ Gold!
\_ That was the old way decades ago. |
| 2009/3/19-23 [Finance/Banking, Finance/Investment] UID:52730 Activity:kinda low |
3/19 Can someone explain how this does not end up as Weimar or Zimbabwe?
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/03/18/business/fed.php
\_ Because hyperinflation is not the same as inflation. The idea
is to create some inflation to fight the deflationary trend.
(Note: this scares me too, but let's not unrealistic Chicken
(Note: this scares me too, but let's not be unrealistic Chicken
Littles)
\_ I realize the plan is to create an inflationary trend to prevent
deflation. However, this seems to me to be flapping our arms to
avoid hitting the ground. -op
\_ The alternative being?
\_ A different analogy. -op
\_ Because the total money supply (credit plus currency) is currently
contracting and this extra $1T is less than the amount of credit
that has been withdrawn from the economy.
\_ The Jan & Feb CPI updates both say that inflation is occurring,
after 6 months of deflation. How do we know when enough money
has been injected vs. not enough? -op
\_ That is a good question, but I am sure the Fed has an answer.
Probably when the inflation rate is "high enough" which is
at least 2%/yr, probably more like 3-4%. There is a risk of
overshoot, of course, but the deflationary forces are so
strong worldwide, worrying about hyperinflation is pretty
silly, imho. The BOE, BOJ and EU banks are all doing the
same thing, btw. |
| 2009/3/15-19 [Finance/Investment] UID:52715 Activity:nil |
3/15 http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/cotnote.html S&P500 net positions: large spec vs. small spec vs. commercial, 1yr Hello small speculators! \_ What is your point? |
| 2009/3/9-17 [Recreation/Travel/LasVegas, Finance/Investment] UID:52690 Activity:nil |
3/9 Mr. Buffet just said "I will guarantee you that the Dow will be a lot
higher" but doesn't say how long that will take. Damn! "You know,
2,000, 8,000, they're all numbers."
\_ Very tempting to buy at these levels. But what?
\_ Potential downers to major indexes:
- CRE, emerging market defaults, insurers, unemployment, war |
| 2009/3/1-11 [Politics/Foreign, Finance/Investment] UID:52664 Activity:nil |
3/1 What do you if your financial advisor has control of your stock and
retirement portfolio, and has been out of the country for a couple
months and has not been responding to your e-mails? Is there a law
which requires them to respond within two business days ...? What
would you do in this situation?
\_ Call his boss? I assume you are with some kind of reputable
large company, right? Call the office he works out of and ask
to speak to the supervisor.
\_ tnx |
| 2009/2/26-3/5 [Finance/Investment] UID:52652 Activity:nil |
2/26 Moody's forecasts global junk bond default rate will exceed that in
Great Depression -- and may exceed rates seen in 1800s
http://tinyurl.com/c5e4vq (telegraph.co.uk)
\_ URL?
\_ No Url or it didn't happen!
\_ everything of worth ever is on the internet!
\_ tell that to the Newspaper Corps.
\_ Is this the same Moody's that told us that CDO's could have AAA
rated tranches that would behave better than AA rated corporate
bonds? |
| 2009/2/20-22 [Finance/Investment] UID:52615 Activity:kinda low |
2/20 Tinfoiler wants to scare you out of the double bottom in the stock
market and your well-diversified portfolio
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg
\_ You think holding US bank notes is going to save you if there
is really a global economic collapse? "There is going to be a
revolution in America.." "This will start WWIII..." This guy
revolution in America.." "There is goign to be WWIII..." This guy
just throws every disaster prediction out there in a rambling
fashion. |
| 11/23 |