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| 7/15 |
| 2004/9/6-7 [Politics/Domestic/Election, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:33376 Activity:high 57%like:30994 |
9/6 USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll: No bounce for Bush among registered voters,
Bush with 7% lead among "likely voters". http://csua.org/u/8xs
Poll conducted Sep 3-5. (Time and Newsweek were several days earlier.)
Was there a Beslan effect?
\_ Well, the problem (if you are a democrat) is that people are voting
against bush, and not for kerry. Traditionally this has been a
sign of a weak candidate. If you take a look at elections like the
76 or 80 elections people voted for the alternative, not against
the establishment. The 92 elections might well be described as
against the establishment, but it also had a sizable 3rd party
presence (sizable in terms of hype, movement, and somewhat of
a spoiler) in Ross Perot which offered an alternative for the
conservative basis (somewhat like Nader in 2000, but more so).
conservative base (somewhat like Nader in 2000, but more so).
In the 2000 election people who voted for Bush actually liked
Bush (neocons, religious conservatives, general hawks, etc.) vs.
people who voted for Gore didn't particularly find Gore appealing
(people liked Clinton, so in essence Gore was supposed to be
Clinton 3rd term like Bush Sr. was Reagan 3rd term). They voted
for him because they didn't like Bush.
\_ I think this time you're going to see a lot more non-likely
turnout. A _lot_ more.
\_ No, you're not. Outside your hyper active political we-hate-
Bush bubble, the Bush haters I know are the standard non-
voters who whine a lot and saw F9/11, but they'll be too
busy or traffic was too high or there was a show on that
night or they had a date. History doesn't back your theory.
The number of people voting vs. registered vs. legal to
register people is at an all time low and continue to sink.
\_ Wrong. In 2000, there were 9.5 million more votes cast
than in 1996, a 2% increase relative to eligible voters.
http://www.fairvote.org/turnout. -tom |
| 7/15 |
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| csua.org/u/8xs -> www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypollsh tm/8914/VerticalBanner/21344_Thrifty_Summer__10031/agate_160x600_rosh tm/38336233653035383430646233653830? USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll results 1 How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot, or only a little? Quite a lot Some Only a little None No opinion National Adults 2004 Jun 21-23 66 3 28 3 * 2004 Jun 3-6 67 4 26 3 * 2004 May 21-23 64 4 29 2 1 2004 May 7-9 64 4 27 4 1 2004 May 2-4 64 4 30 2 * 2004 Mar 5-7 62 3 32 3 * 2004 Jan 2-5 45 2 48 4 1 2 If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? Kerry Bush Neither Other No opinion Likely Voters 2004 Jun 21-23 48 49 1 * 2 2003 Jun 3-6 50 44 2 1 3 2004 May 21-23 49 47 1 * 3 2004 May 7-9 47 48 2 1 2 2004 Mar 5-7 52 44 2 1 1 2004 Feb 16-17 55 43 1 * 1 2004 Jan 9-11 43 55 1 * 1 Registered Voters 2004 Jun 21-23 49 45 2 1 3 2004 Jun 3-6 49 44 3 * 4 2004 May 21-23 48 46 2 * 4 2004 May 7-9 50 44 3 * 3 2004 Mar 5-7 50 45 2 1 2 2004 Feb 16-17 51 46 2 * 1 2004 Jan 9-11 40 57 2 -- 1 National Adults 2004 Jun 21-23 48 46 2 1 3 2004 Jun 3-6 48 44 4 * 4 2004 May 21-23 48 44 4 * 4 2004 May 7-9 51 43 3 * 3 2004 Mar 5-7 50 45 3 * 2 2004 Feb 16-17 51 44 3 * 2 2004 Jan 9-11 40 57 2 -- 1 3A. Is there any chance you would vote for John Kerry in the November election or is there no chance whatsoever that you would vote for him? Is there any chance you would vote for George W Bush in the November election or is there no chance whatsoever that you would vote for him? Kerry Voter Summary: Strong Kerry Weak Kerry Potential Kerry No chance whatsoever No opinion Likely Voters 2004 Jun 21-23 42 6 8 44 * Registered Voters 2004 Jun 21-23 41 8 12 38 1 National Adults 2004 Jun 21-23 40 8 12 39 1 Bush Voter Summary: Strong Bush Weak Bush Potential Bush No chance whatsoever No opinion Likely Voters 2004 Jun 21-23 43 6 7 43 1 Registered Voters 2004 Jun 21-23 36 9 11 43 1 National Adults 2004 Jun 21-23 37 9 11 43 * Group Definitions: Strong: Voting for candidate and say no chance vote for opponent. Weak: Voting for candidate and say some chance vote for opponent. Potential: Voting for opponent or undecided, but say some chance vote for candidate. No chance: Voting for opponent or undecided and say no chance vote for candidate. Kerry Bush Nader None Other No opinion Likely Voters 2004 Jun 21-23 47 48 3 * * 2 2004 Jun 3-6 49 43 5 * 1 2 2004 May 21-23 47 46 4 1 * 2 2004 May 7-9 45 47 5 2 -- 1 2004 Mar 5-7 50 44 2 1 1 2 Registered Voters 2004 Jun 21-23 46 45 6 * 1 2 2004 Jun 3-6 45 42 7 1 1 4 2004 May 21-23 46 44 6 1 * 3 2004 May 7-9 46 41 7 3 * 3 2004 Mar 5-7 47 45 5 1 * 2 National Adults 2004 Jun 21-23 45 45 6 1 1 2 2004 Jun 3-6 44 42 8 2 1 3 2004 May 21-23 46 42 6 2 1 3 2004 May 7-9 46 41 8 3 * 2 2004 Mar 5-7 47 44 5 1 1 2 5 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W Bush is handling his job as president? B The situation in Iraq Approve Disapprove No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 ^ 42 56 2 2004 Jun 3-6 41 57 2 2004 May 7-9 ^ 41 58 1 2004 May 2-4 42 55 3 2004 Jan 2-5 61 36 3 2003 Jul 25-27 60 38 2 2003 APR 14-16 76 21 3 2003 Jan 3-5 55 40 5 ^ Asked of half sample. Based on 484 National Adults in Form A C Terrorism Approve Disapprove No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 ^ 54 44 2 2004 Jun 3-6 56 43 1 2004 May 7-9 ^ 54 43 3 2004 May 2-4 52 45 3 2004 APR 16-18 60 39 1 2003 Dec 5-7 65 33 2 2003 Jan 31-Feb 2 71 26 3 2002 May 20-22 ^ 83 13 4 2002 Mar 20-22 86 12 2 ^ Asked of a half sample WORDING: US military action abroad to fight terrorism. Based on 484 National Adults in Form A 7 Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W Bush would better handle each of the following issues. A The economy Kerry Bush Same No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 ^ 53 40 1 6 2004 May 7-9 ^ 54 40 1 5 2004 Mar 5-7 50 42 2 6 ^ Asked of half sample. Based on 521 National Adults in Form B For results based on this sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are 5 percentage points. B The situation in Iraq Kerry Bush Same No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 ^ 46 47 1 6 2004 May 7-9 ^ 45 48 1 6 2004 Mar 5-7 39 54 2 5 ^ Asked of half sample. Based on 521 National Adults in Form B C Terrorism Kerry Bush Same No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 ^ 40 54 1 5 2004 May 7-9 ^ 38 55 1 6 2004 Mar 5-7 33 60 2 5 ^ Asked of half sample. Based on 521 National Adults in Form B 8 Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. Commander- in-chief Handling the economy Managing the government No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 23 41 32 4 10. Who do you trust more to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief: John Kerry, or George W Bush? Kerry Bush Both equally Neither No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 43 51 1 3 2 Based on 484 National Adults in Form A 11. Do you think George W Bush and John Kerry can or cannot handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief? A George W Bush Yes, can No, cannot No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 61 35 4 B John Kerry Yes, can No, cannot No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 61 30 9 Based on 521 National Adults in Form B 12. Would you say you and your family are better off now than you were four years ago, or are you worse off now? Better off Worse off Same No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 49 36 14 1 1984 Jul 27-30 44 26 28 2 1984 Jun 29-Jul 2 48 25 26 1 13. Do you think there was enough information available so that the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 could have been prevented, or not? Yes, was No, was not No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 33 59 8 2002 May 20-22 25 63 12 14. Overall, how much do you blame each of the following for the September 11th terrorist attacks -- a great deal, a moderate amount, only a little, or not at all? A The Bush administration A great deal Moderate amount Only a little Not at all No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 17 25 23 34 1 2002 Jun 7-8 9 23 26 40 2 2002 May 16 ^ 7 22 26 43 2 2001 Sep 14-15 9 25 20 44 2 ^ Based on one night poll. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days. B The Clinton Administration A great deal A moderate amount Only a little Not at all No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 13 27 24 34 2 2001 Sep 14-15 16 29 18 34 3 Asked of a half sample. All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not? Worth it Not worth it No opinion 2004 Jun 21-23 46 51 3 2004 May 7-9 ^ 44 54 2 2004 APR 16-18 ^ 52 46 2 2004 Mar 26-28 56 41 3 2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 49 49 2 2004 Jan 9-11 59 38 3 2003 DEC 15-16 ^ 65 33 2 2003 Nov 14-16 56 42 2 2003 Oct 24-26 54 44 2 2003 Sep 8-10 58 40 2 2003 Aug 25-26 63 35 2 2003 Jul 25-27 63 34 3 2003 Jun 27-29 56 42 2 2003 APR 9 cS 76 19 5 2003 Mar 24-25 68 29 3 ^ Asked of a half sample. WORDING: All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not? WORDING: All in all, do you think the current situation in Iraq is worth going to war over, or not? cS Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days. In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not? Yes No No opinion Iraq 2004 Jun 21-23 54 44 2 2004 Jun 3-6 41 58 1 2004 May 7-9 44 54 2 2004 APR 16-18 42 57 1 2004 Jan 12-15 42 56 2 2003 Oct 6-8 40 59 1 2003 Mar 24-25 23 75 2 Afghanistan 2002 Jan 7-9 6 93 1 2001 Nov 8-11 9 89 2 Yugoslavia 1999 Jun 4-5 43 53 4 1999 APR 21 42 51 7 Persian Gulf War 1991 Jul 18-21 15 82 3 1991 Feb 28-Mar 3 10 87 3 1991 Feb 7-10 21 76 3 Vietnam War 2000 Nov 13-15 69 24 7 1995 APR 21-24 71 23 6 1990 Mar 15-18 74 22 4 1973 Jan 12-15 60 29 11 Korean War 2000 Jun 6-7 34 47 19 1953 Jan 11-16 36 50 14 1951 APR 16-21 37 45 18 AFGHANISTAN WORDING: Do you think the United States made a mistake in sending military forces to Afghanistan, or not? YUGOSLAVIA WORDING: In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Yugoslavia, do you th... |
| www.fairvote.org/turnout -> www.fairvote.org/turnout/ Dubious Democracy: A report released by CVD which highlights the US House elections as well as turnout numbers broken down by state and nationally from 1992-2000. The site includes notes on the procedures used to calculate Voting Age Population (VAP),Voting Eligible Population (VEP), and Turnout Rates. US Presidential Election 2000 More than 105 million Americans cast their vote for president on Nov. on Civic Engagement: Summer 1999 A national survey of younger (18-25) voters and potential voters reveals what issues concern them, what sources they depend on for political information, and why they don't participate in, or trust government at any level. California Internet Voting Task Force This is a link to a full report of the California Internet Voting Task Force on the subject of using the Internet to conduct elections in California. Voting by Mail Describes recent reform which has increased voter turnout in Oregon. Voter Mobilization Recent Elections for president and Congress have led political players and their backers to focus more efforts on mobilizing voters to boost turnout. These efforts are often only in the states and congressional districts where elections are expected to be close, but there are other less partisan efforts designed to boost turnout overall--voter participation in the United States is lower than most other well-established democracies. Following is a list of websites focused on voter mobilization in 2004, with short descriptions. org: Organized by AARP, America Online and MCI WorldCom, this is a non-partisan, non-profit site. Its mission is to use the Internet to increase voter participation. Strive for Five: A community-based, national non-partisan program for citizenship education and civic engagement. Specifically, the Strive for Five program encourages voters to bring five new people to the polls with them in November. America Coming Together: Defines itself as the largest voter mobilization project in American history. By going door to door and encouraging voter participation, ACT canvassers are trying to lay the groundwork to defeat George W Bush and elect Democrats in federal, state, and local elections in 2004. Democratic National Committee: The Family Voting Plan encourages members to help register family members, assist with elderly family members, give them rides to the polls and call relatives on election day to remind them to vote. Informed Voters Foundation: A non-profit, non-partisan group striving to help educated voters make educated, informed decisions on Election Day. The group's focus is to help voters make choices based on the issues rather than images and soundbites. Project Vote Smart: A national library of factual information, Project Vote Smart covers candidates and elected officials in five basic categories: biographical information, issue positions, voting records, campaign finances and interest group ratings in order to help citizens to self-govern effectively. The American Legion: The world's largest veterans organization, asking voters to identify which issues are important to them which The American Legion will then give to the 2004 Presidential candidates. Campaign for Young Voters: By working to raise interest from and encourage action by candidates and political organizations, The Campaign for Young Voters provides an essential complement to the many organizations that work directly with young adults to encourage voting and civic participation. org: A national nonpartisan coalition of diverse organizations dedicated to increasing political and civic participation among young people and increasing public awareness about the value of participation in democracy through the electoral process. Declare Yourself: A national nonpartisan, nonprofit campaign to energize and empower a new movement of young voters to participate in the 2004 presidential election. Declare Yourself will rally young Americans through a live spoken word and music tour of college campuses; an unprecedented nationwide voter education initiative for high school seniors; Rock the Vote: A non-profit, non-partisan organization, which mobilizes young people to create positive social and political change in their lives and communities. Rock the Vote coordinates voter registration drives, get-out-the-vote events, and voter education efforts, all with the intention of ensuring that young people take advantage of their right to vote. Hip Hop Summit Action Network (HSAN): a non-profit, non-partisan national coalition of Hip-Hop artists, entertainment industry leaders, education advocates, civil rights proponents, and youth leaders united in the belief that Hip-Hop is an enormously influential agent for social change which must be responsibly and proactively utilized to fight the war on poverty and injustice. The Hip Hop Team Vote gives youth the information they need before heading to the polls. Smackdown Your Vote: This is a joint effort recently rededicated to the cause of increasing voter turnout among 18-30 year old citizens. Coalition partners include the WWE, Youth Vote, Project Vote Smart, and the League for Women Voters. New Millenium: A national campaign designed primarily to increase civic engagement levels among the nation's 18-24 year-olds. Its mission is to improve voter turnout rates among 18-to-24-year-olds and enable young voters to make informed choices, as well as to raise public awareness about the importance of youth participation in government and the political process. Youth In Action Campaigns: The Global Youth Action Network (GYAN) is an international collaboration among youth and youth-serving organizations to share information, resources and solutions. Youth in Action is the US network of the GYAN with more than 100 youth organizations working to build voice and recognition for young people. These Reforms Will Get Voters to the Polls Jamin B Raskin and Rob Richie. A record low number of voters will turn out for the Sept. Many people want to revitalize politics by reforming campaign finance, but it may be time to change our election systems as well. The Dinosaur in the Living Room Rob Richie and Steven Hill Shockingly low statistics on voter turnout are found in numerous localities. The article argues that our political leaders and concerned citizens should consider changes that will allow voters to see a real connection between their votes and policy, as well as create a new deal for democracy. Opportunities with New Methods of Voting - Overcoming Structural Barriers to Participation Burck Smith. The article proposes to increase voter participation with the help of the National Voter Registration Act, as well as current and future innovations. Questions and Answers About Motor Voter - An Important Reform That Is Not Just for Democrats Bernard Grofman In this article, the author analyses a new way to raise voter turnout, along with potential outcomes of such reform. Evaluating Election Turnout This essay discusses what constitutes "free and fair" elections along with the inter-relationship of turnout and choice in both democratic and totalitarian countries. Voters May Have Their Say Before Election Day, Jo Becker. This article discusses the "early voting option" offered in some states and notes that this can force voters to cast their ballots without having all the information about their candidates. Committee for the Study of the American Electorate is an excellent resource for information and analysis on citizen registration, voter participation, and other electoral issues. electionMatch offers a searchable database of non-profit organizations and community groups looking for volunteers to help with non-partisan voter registration, education, and mobilization activities. |