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| 7/26 |
| 2004/4/1-2 [Politics/Foreign/Asia/China, Politics/Foreign/Asia/Taiwan] UID:12965 Activity:very high |
4/1 The reason why PRC is keeping quiet about Taiwan election -
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_14/b3877006.htm
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_14/b3877002.htm
\_ because PRC learned its lesson. Last thing they want is TW
nationals rallying against them. If you know anything about
Chinese Communist Party, you should know that when they are being
people rally against them. If you know anything about Chinese
quiet, that is when you should be REALLY worry about them.
\_ This article is filled with "I'm a moron" spin. Another
way you could spin it is that Chen's share of the vote increased
from ~ 35-40% from the 2000 election to ~ 50% for 2004, China
would find its own stability problematic if it decided to attack
Taiwan and disrupt business, everyone in Taiwan already knew
the referendums were totally political anyway, and whatever China
has or hasn't done, Chen has been re-elected. In fact, I would
say that China has realized its previously asinine diplomatic
approaches have been replaced with something more reasonable.
\_ why the range of 35-40% ? he got 39% in 2000 in a 3-way race.
\_ maybe because I couldn't remember what the exact percentage
was?
\_ let's say if taiwan declares independence, and prc takes
over all taiwan linked assets and factories in china, and
cuts off all trade with taiwan (prc being taiwan's biggest
export market). is this a cost taiwan is willing to bear
to move from status quo to independence? for how long?
\_ What if then the US freezes all trade to China? Is this a
cost China is willing to bear by being aggressive to Taiwan?
For how long?
\_ Fat chance. That would wreck our economy. If China
attacked Taiwan, we'd make a lot of noise and let them
burn.
\_ In order for China to attack Taiwan, it will need to
mass forces. The U.S. will deploy a couple aircraft
carriers, deterring the amphibious assault. China will
need a credible anti-carrier capability, which is why
it's developing GPS-guided cruise missiles. If the U.S.
can somehow manage to maintain combat superiority,
China won't even try to mass forces. In the
mean time, the U.S. is hoping China and Taiwan will
develop business links to an extent that neither will
want to disrupt the trade relationship.
\_ I doubt China will try to invade Taiwan. Instead,
it may shoot a few missiles, send it's submarine
fleet around Taiwan and warn other countries to
refrain from sailing their ships there. This
would bring the US fleet near Taiwan, and then
who knows what will happen. US will likely be
pressuring Taiwan to backtrack on independence
\_ Fat chance. That would wreck our economy. If China
attacked Taiwan, we'd make a lot of noise and let them
burn.
mean time, the U.S. is hoping China and Taiwan will
develop business links to an extent that neither will
want to disrupt the trade relationship.
at that point. Die hard Taiwan independence
advocates will wish the posturing will escalate
into a war between US and prc.
\_ The PRC is a loooong way from even thinking about
being able to take on the US Navy. They might
sink a few ships but they'll lose *everything*
they've spent 20+ years building up in a few hours
and they know it. If it was otherwise they would
have attacked already.
\_ clueless one. the prc doesn't need to take
on the US Navy. All they need is to cut
off all trade with Taiwan and Taiwan is
economically dead.
\_ So is China. China wouldn't cut off it's
nose to spite their face. Don't call me
clueless until you've demonstrated superior
knowledge or ability. You've failed on both
counts thus far. China has only 2 options
to retake Taiwan. The Taiwanese vote to go
back which is less likely each day or they
invade.
\_ Can't you just accept that people like political
Communist Party, you should know that when they are being
quiet, that is when you should be REALLY worry about them.
be forced to do.
\_ nobody mentioned anything about "attack".
\_ It isn't even a choice. It's the minimal PRC would
be forced to do.
\_ "forced to do", hmmm.
\_ exactly. which part of it do you not understand?
\_ That's a lot of "if's". Taiwan will not declare independence;
rather, Chen will say it was always independent, so there was
nothing to declare anyway. The question you should be asking
is, what if Chen passes a new constitution, and that's a big
if, too.
\_ Chen will push and push, but PRC will finally draw a line,
and that's what I am referring to above. stop nitpicking,
and wasting words.
if, too. And if a new constitution were passed, I have a hard
time believing that China would follow up with what you said.
I would say this path would lead to war with the U.S., and
China wouldn't want to take that chance, since they know
they would be beat by the U.S., and they wouldn't want to
lose face in any withdrawal.
freedoms, people like personal freedoms,
they don't want the half-assed Hong Kong "Basic
Law" situation -- and they want anyone who would
take away those freedoms to go to hell?
Just ask all the KMT protesters (even though
they're all wrong).
\_ Taiwan already has political and personal
freedoms. Taiwan independence is a
possible option in theory. In reality
the cost is too high, especially
when Taiwan already has all the freedoms
under the current status quo.
\_ Except for the constant threat of Chinese
invasion, yeah, sort of.
\_ the problem has always been how to
deal with the threat. burying your
skull in the sand doesn't help.
\_ It isn't even a choice. It's the minimal PRC would
be forced to do.
\_ That's a lot of "if's". Taiwan will not declare independence;
rather, Chen will say it was always independent, so there was
nothing to declare anyway. The question you should be asking
is, what if Chen passes a new constitution, and that's a big
if, too. And if a new constitution were passed, I have a hard
time believing that China would follow up with what you said.
I would say this path would lead to war with the U.S., and
China wouldn't want to take that chance, since they know
they would be beat by the U.S., and they wouldn't want to
lose face in any withdrawal.
\_ chen can push and push, but prc will draw a line somewhere,
and then the above actions is the minimal that the prc
will do. It may be all at once or one step at a time
but it will go on until taiwan backs down. it doesn't
need to fire a shot, and taiwan's economy would be in
ruins. Is that a cost taiwan is willing to pay to go
from status quo (note: nobody is talking about being
subject to prc rule here) to independence? United
States has been protecting Taiwan for the past half
a century. Instead of being grateful, should Taiwan
insist on demanding that Americans spill blood for
them, moving in a direction that would be economically
devastating to Taiwan, China, US and all east asian
nations? President Bush has repeatedly pleaded with
Chen to tone down because Chen's actions are not in the
interest of the United States.
\_ It's just a matter of time. One day China will be
strong enough to go for it. Taiwan can't do a thing to
stop that. When that day comes the US can defend or not
defend Taiwan. If the US chooses to defend Taiwan then
pray the Chinese have underestimated US navy power. If
the US backs down it is the end of US super power status
and the start of another 50 year cold war the whole
world will suffer through.
\_ Last two posters, will you please speak in specifics?
"One day China will be strong enough to go for it".
I could just as easily say: One day China will
have a democratic revolution, and Taiwan will join
China's democracy once everything has settled down.
Both seem equally believable to me, especially since
China is *vastly* outclassed by U.S. naval and
air power, and the U.S. will make a good effort
to keep up its military superiority if China
advances far enough.
\_ Specifically, "go for it" = "invade". You could
just as easily say your butt is made of green
cheese (just like the moon), but it is not equally
likely. If you find the cheese theory and the
China invasion theory equally believable then I've
got a bridge in Florida to sell you. China doesnt
have to have a better navy/af. They only have to
be superior in the local region. If they can
pull a fast one and cripple local US navy forces
and put a few 10s of thousands of men on Taiwan
before US reinforcements can show up they've won.
There will be some bogus peace treaty signed and
Taiwan will vanish into the history books as a
minor blurb in some grey side panel box.
\_ Die hard Taiwan independence supporters doesn't
care whether China becomes democratic or not.
They want independence at all cost. They are
driven in a large part by past hatred rather
than a vision for the future.
\_ Quick question, what's wrong with wanting
independence for its own sake? -- ilyas
\_ Exactly. I'm with you on that one.
\_ look, if you can magically turn china
into a brunei, then go ahead with
independence with my full support.
Unlike freedoms or democracy, which
is by nature good, political
independence is neutral in itself.
Its merits is dependent on how well it
will work for the people in practice.
\_ China will never be militarily stronger than the
US. The problem is, it doesn't need to be. It
can totally screw up Taiwan's economic livelihood
without firing a shot. Stop trolling.
\_ Never? Ever? History is full of dead and
defeated super powers that would rule the world
*forever* or so they thought. No one on this
thread is trolling. Some of us simply disagree
with you. That is *not* trolling. You want
trolls? There are plenty of trolls on the other
motd threads right now, but not here.
\_ Except that the world is now just a big
village. And in a small contained
world, once one party attains the upper
hand, it will only get stronger and
stronger. |
| 7/26 |
|
| www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_14/b3877006.htm The mainland press and Web sites have deleted most references to the election and its aftermath. But such precautions are common in Beijing - and hardly suggest any panic on the part of Chinas leaders. Indeed, President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao seem to be betting that a subtler approach to Taiwan - including ever-closer economic ties - is better than the saber-rattling of their predecessors. But a referendum he backed, asking whether Taiwan should boost its defenses against China, failed because less than 50 of voters cast ballots on the issue, despite an 80 turnout. The referendum, considered a warm-up for an eventual poll on independence, is the one aspect of the Taiwanese election that has gotten some attention on the mainland. Facts have proven that this illegal act the referendum goes against the will of the people, the Taiwan Affairs Office of Chinas State Council, or Cabinet, said in a statement. If its failure can really be taken as an indication that most Taiwanese oppose independence, its good news for the Chinese leadership, says Wang Yong, director of Beijing Universitys Center for International Political Economy. And even though Beijing hates uncertainty above all else, the leadership there may exploit doubts about the election results for years to come. China now has an excuse to question Chens mandate, and this may force Chen to strike a more conciliatory posture toward the mainland to lessen post-election tensions. Furthermore, the turbulence over the election hardly gives democracy a good name, even among Chinese citizens, many of whom have long been skeptical of Taiwans volatile - and sometimes violent - political system. Despite Chinas antipathy, Chens apparent victory wont mean an end to the deepening economic ties between the two sides even if political relations remain cool. And more than 60 of Taiwans technology production is now on the mainland, a level of integration that gives China tremendous leverage over the island, says Andy Rothman of brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Shanghai. If Hu Jintao had been able to vote, he would have chosen Chen, says Rothman. Beijing knows that the White House is less than thrilled with Chen, so mainland leaders might try to use the situation to move closer to Washington. On the day after the election, Chinas Foreign Minister, Li Zhaoxing, called Secretary of State Colin Powell asking the United States to do more to contribute to the peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. A nice exchange - and not too encouraging for Chen, who must rely on the United States for support in any ultimate showdown with Beijing. So for Chinas shrewd practitioners of realpolitik, things could be much worse. The challenge is to keep Chen weak without provoking him into doing something rash - like making a sprint for independence. Chinese leaders would even sacrifice the 2008 Beijing Olympics by going to war if it meant keeping Taiwan, says Cheng Li, a professor of government at Hamilton College in Clinton, NY As the drama unfolds in Taiwan, China is largely silent. |
| www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_14/b3877002.htm Most believed that Chens camp had conspired to keep thousands of Liens supporters from voting and then tossed out hundreds of thousands of ballots of those who managed to vote. They were convinced that a gunshot attack on Chen and his Vice-President, Annette Lu, the day before the election was a cynical ploy to win sympathy votes. So Liens allies demanded not only a recount but also an independent investigation into the mysterious events surrounding the shooting. Our democracy is dying, 24-year-old student Wang Ning-hsuan shouted, trying to make herself heard over the din of protesters air horns. Added Sun Yu-ming, a 48-year-old homemaker: We are doing this because the government doesnt listen to us. Although Chen has agreed to a recount, he and his supporters insist they have done nothing wrong and that Lien is simply a sore loser. As the two sides trade allegations, there is little sign that the standoff will be resolved quickly: On Mar. Following the election, the local stock market saw its worst two-day fall since September, 2001. If the protests drag on, the instability could continue to roil financial markets. And even if Chens victory is confirmed, thats not likely to please the thousands of Taiwan businesses that are becoming ever more dependent on trade with China, and whose leaders generally back Liens party, the Kuomintang KMT. The markets had been betting that Lien would win - and quickly approve a $1 billion chip plant TSMC wants to build on the mainland. Chinas leaders would deal with Lien, but they so dislike Chen - whom they see as an advocate of Taiwan independence - that the next four years hold little chance of a thaw in relations. Although President Hu Jintao has toned down the angry rhetoric Chinese leaders normally aim at Taipei during elections, continued protests could encourage hard-liners in Beijing who favor a tougher stand toward both Taiwan and Hong Kong. And in Hong Kong, Taiwans strife is providing ammunition in the propaganda fight against advocates of democracy. In the aftermath of the Taiwanese election, democrats should reflect on whether Hong Kong has the political maturity for universal suffrage now, says Raymond Wu, a Hong Kong delegate to the National Peoples Congress in Beijing. The uncertain outcome also will complicate relations between China and the United States - at a time when ties are already strained because of election-year pressures on the White House to get tough with Beijing. Chens reelection, in fact, is an annoyance for an Administration that wants to focus on United States trade with China, not deal with a crusade for Taiwan independence. People in Washington realize that American interests and Taiwans interests are not the same, says Susan Shirk, an Asia hand in the State Dept. No doubt about it: Plenty of powerful people would like to see Chen lose a recount. Yet the combative Chen is likely to prevail: His 002 margin may be thin, but it wont be easy to overturn. Chens supporters say they have explanations for any apparent irregularities, and finding the 30,000 votes Lien would need to win will be tough. The canny Chen, even while courting voters who want an independence vote, says that for the moment he opposes full-fledged separation from the mainland and the creation of a new stand-alone state. The President has promised we will not get into the area that will cause conflict with China, says Joseph Wu, a top adviser. But while a studied ambiguity would doubtless work best for the embattled President, his most radical supporters may not let him sit on the fence. An early test will be in December, when the Taiwanese vote for a new legislature. If his Democratic Progressive Party DPP - now in the minority - wins a strong mandate, Chen could come under increased pressure from some of the DPPs more extreme factions to declare independence from China, something Beijing has long said is grounds for war. The pro-independence forces may have an opening, thanks to Chens pledge to write a new constitution. You cant talk about a new constitution without talking about the name of the country, says Emile Sheng, a professor at Soochow University in Taipei. Today, that name is the Republic of China, a reflection of Taipeis insistence that it was the legitimate government of all China. Chen maintains that the constitution needs to be revamped to reform an archaic political structure, a legacy of the authoritarian regime of Chiang Kai-shek, who fled to the island in 1949 after being driven from the mainland by the communists. But there will be plenty of opportunity in such an exercise to codify ideas that push Taiwan toward independence. Chens plan is to hold a referendum on the constitution in 2008, to coincide with the next presidential election. If the charter contains language effectively declaring Taiwan a republic, it could provoke Beijing into military action. And with hundreds of missiles aimed at Taiwan, a few targeted strikes could cripple the islands infrastructure. The island has few natural resources - Taiwan imports nearly all its oil, for example - and its economy is highly dependent on trade. Chinas first option would be an economic blockade, says Bruce Gale, an analyst with risk consultancy Hill & Associates in Singapore. Chinas most effective long-term strategy, though, may be to kill the island with kindness. Taiwanese have invested more than $100 billion in the mainland, and a half-million Taiwanese now live there. So President JC Liao says that, while no move is imminent, he could see quitting Taiwan in case of increased tension. Some, however, say such moves wont be necessary because Chen will work to improve cross-strait ties rather than increase tensions. President Chen will definitely make some goodwill gestures, says Philip Yang, a politics professor at National Taiwan University in Taipei. Some possibilities: easing restrictions on Chinese imports, increasing educational exchanges, and boosting tourism. Like Liens supporters massed in front of the presidential palace, Chinas leaders simply dont trust Chen. If the President survives the attempts to topple him, figuring out a way to win that trust will be his biggest challenge. By Bruce Einhorn in Taipei, with Dexter Roberts in Hong Kong and Stan Crock in Washington Need Help? Americas Lending partners can help you get a gret deal on a home equity loan from prominent lenders nationwide. 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