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Combined with significant maneuvers by the 3rd Infantry Division in Karbala against the Iraqi Medina Division, the moves are a prelude to a takeover of the capital and the government of Saddam Hussein. Wilson was Deputy Chief of Mission at the United States Embassy in Baghdad from 1988 to 1991. During Desert Shield he was acting ambassador and was responsbile for the freeing of several hundred American hostages. He was the last official American to meet with Saddam Hussein before Desert Storm. Wilson was online Thursday, April 3 at 11 am ET , to discuss the consequences of a conquest of Iraq and what it would mean to the broader regional and global interests of the United States A transcript follows.
What happens if we do not find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? If we dont find them, discussion about them will cease and we will focus on the other reasons the administration has articulated. If we do find them, world public opinion will only change on the margins. The post war plans by Wolfewitz as seen on 60 Minutes II 4/2 and a NY Times article 4/3 are very disturbing. Saddam can win this war if he makes it impossible to find any WMD. Wilson: Not a coup detat but there is reason for others to suspect that our motives are not as pure as some would have us believe. This is not a war of liberation, though we will need to make sure the peace truly does liberate Iraq from the tyranny. The President received all the authority he needed from Congress in October after a Congressional debate best described as desultory.
I am especially puzzled by comments of France not appreciating our help to them in the world wars. The United States didnt get involved until 1917, when we felt sufficiently threatened. Ditto in World War II, which started in 1939 with France occupied by the Nazis in mid-1940, and the United States entering the war in late 1941, only after attacked. We didnt jump into either war to save France and certainly stayed on the sidelines for quite a while. As for me, I still favor my Hermes ties and camembert&33 Seriously, we will want to avoid self isolation after this.
Wilson: We are going to want to internationalize the effort in my judgement if we ever hope to succeed and we will need a broad and deep Iraqi investment in the process. I think that we will want to return as many of the Iraqi ministries back to Iraqis as quickly as possible but how quickly that will be is anybodys guess. There is a tendency to wear rose tinted glasses, to think and act too simplistically and to overstay our welcome, all bad signs going in to an occupation.
You were the last official American to meet with Saddam Hussein back in before Desert Storm. From what you observed then does that give you any indication of what he might be up to now if, in fact, hes still alive? Wilson: I think he is preparing to go underground to fight a guerrilla campaign, assuming he is still alive. The regime has avoided doing anything that would make its return to power out of the question. For example, no destruction of oil fields or infrastructure or use of WMD. If our presences is seen as an occupation rather than a liberation it is entirely possible that Saddam thinks he can rebound after the disillusion of the population with the U S presence. Jonesboro, GA: Listening to the war briefings and the expert opinions of all the folks on TV and the news, it seems that victory is a foregone conclusion to the coalition forces. That is, it is just a matter of timedays, weeks before we over-run and take over Baghdad. That said, I am beginnig to think that the major test for us lies ahead - the re-building of Iraq. Now, from all reports it seems as if the US has an ad-hoc administration waiting in the wings to assume the control and running of the country in the interim. However, there is a growing cry from the international community, including Britain to cede this control to the UN. If, as we did in this war, decide to go it alone, do you forsee a disastrous chain of events for us, the so-called Arab world and the world at large. The war will not truly be over until we have changed the minds of the region in a way that is in our interest. When there is demand for four trucks of aid as there was the other day in Safwan, we need to send six trucks and not just one as we did, leading to a riot. We also need to get broad acceptance in Iraq for what we want to do and that means we cannot impose solutions of people on the process. Finally, we should make a dramatic gesture to the other issue that preoccupies Arabs, the Middle East peace process. That is the thorn in the side of the region that needs to be pulled before true progress on other issues can occur.
Isnt it difficult to access the impact of the conquest of Iraq without knowing if Iraq is an isolated instance, or part of a larger policy to take on regimes in the region viewed as hostile to United States interests? Wilson: I think that there will be a pause in the military use of power and an effort to use this demonstration of force as an example of what can happen if you cross us. While the policy is to eradicate support for terrorism, there will be an effort to do that in the neighborhood without having to militarily overthrow the other regimes.
It seems to me earlier efforts of Iran and Saudi Arabia have gone unrecognized by the current administration, even to the point where Iran has been hinted at being next on the administrations list of countries to take over. We can expect less cooperation on terrorism, less interest in doing business with us, investing in the US economy and in buying our products. We have greatly offended the entire Muslim world with this war and with every day that images of Baghdad on fire and Iraqi civilian casualties is another day of humiliation for the region.
In the first answer you say the rational is liberation so WMD do not matter. While I couldnt disagree more, in the second answer you say this isnt a war of liberation. Wilson: The administration has offered a menu of reasons for the war. The answer was to the question of whether finding WMD would make a difference in how the war is perceived. Here in the US we have bought off on the other reasons so for us it does not matter. Overseas, they think there are any number of other reasons behind what we are doing so again if we find WMD it wownt change their position as to why we are doing what we are. The issue is really transfer of WMD to terrorist groups which had never occurred before in Saddams regime but now that he is toast dont be surprised if as his last act of defiance he does precisely that. As to liberation, we will see a year from now if the Iraqis feel they are liberated.
Ambassador, It seems to me that the Iraqis and most of the world preceived the coaliton forces as an occupation army. For it truly to qualify as liberation, there should be Iraqis actively fighting or assisting the US/UK forces - which has not happened. It is obvious to any informed observer getting information from multiple sources that this is going to be a quagmire not unlike Vietnam, and with the rising temperatures in Iraq much more difficult war to win. Wilson: IN fact they shut down the training program for Iraqi forces when fewer than 100 signed up. It will be different from Vietnam in that there will not be an active war once we mop up but rather an active resistance that will emerge.
A rational Iraqi city mayor could conclude, Why on earth agree to be voted out of office? Its better to drive out the occupying Americans through a steady parade of bombs and sniping against United States troops. Once they leave, my family can enjoy our oil revenues without all this inconvenient democracy stuff. ...
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