www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-15-amazing-stock-market-charts-2009-10#firstremember-stocks-for-the-long-run-1
com, using the link at the end or at the bottom of each slide. As always, it's hard to draw definitive conclusions about the future by dissecting the past--or by doing anything else, for that matter. But if there's one overriding message from Doug's work, it is this: * Long-term returns from today's level are likely to be lower than the long-term average (prices are high, dividends are low) * This market is likely to be grinding along for years.
The way stuff was cooked before the SEC was just amazing. Its like trying to compare major league baseball statistics back that far if there was a period when baseball had no officials, the pitcher could throw spitballs and teams could have 2 extra guys in left-center and right-center field.
com sector in the previous 5 years as two glorious examples. Thank God the SEC is out there to save us from improper book-keeping, fraudsters, and Ponzi-schemers like they had 100 years ago.
propaganda as it becomes clearer that paying someone to ride your portfolio up and down just ain't getting the job done. You can time the market, or at least put odds in your favor (it requires WORK which I know shoots down a lot of ppl) but you're going to have to if you want to make any money at all going forward if this scenario plays out.
txchick57: i've been consistently buying - dollar cost averaging - for the last 15+ years - through all of the ups and downs of the market - into two funds - VFIAX and VGHAX - reinvesting all dividends and capital gains. simple and boring i know but it's worked out very well so far.
txchick57: ps i love the fact that we have Nobel Prize Economics winners and Harvard MBAs and PhDs with 1000X the information and resources that can't time the market yet Joe Schmo sitting in his basement in pajamas thinks he can.
Gordon: Ever hear of the guy (I think it was Sperandeo) who took did the experiment with the MBAs vs. the blue collar types and gave both groups trading accounts to see which would do better? You suspect people CAN do it but you can't or don't want to so it's easier to just tell yourself nobody can. If you've dollar cost averaged over the past 10 years, you're sucking serious gas from anyone who is even a half decent trader.
Actually, no, but like you, Gordon, I gave up on trying to time the market long ago. I still believe in valuation--I'm happier buying when stocks are cheap--but I wouldn't bet on short-term moves.
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