Entry 33838 (Berkeley CSUA MOTD)

Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 33838

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2025/07/08 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular

7/8

2004/9/29-30 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:33838 Activity:kinda low

9/29    To the guy who said http://www.electoral-vote.com was biased, why were you
        suggesting that he was biased in favor of Bush?  He says he's a Kerry
        supporter:
        http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/welcome.html
        "I am a Kerry supporter. I am open about that. Despite my political
        preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about
        all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be
        strictly nonpartisan."
        \_ Yeah, I implied that, but I was just repeating what I had
           read elsewewhere, that he was "biased." It is pretty amusing
           that the Kerry biased site has Kerry with fewer EVs than the
           Bush biased site.
           that the Kerry biased site had Kerry with fewer EVs than the
           Bush biased site yesterday. (electionprojection.com)
           No matter what he says though, those trend lines are a joke.
           Do you take those trend lines seriously?
           \_ I forgot to cull out the states that had only a few data points.
              But the trend lines looked reasonable to me in the states with a
              decent number of points.
           \_ Had a conversation with two construction workers at a coffee shop
              in Oakland today.  Gist: both candidates are scumbags; Kerry's
              a tax-and-spend Dem; Bush is a deficit spender; Ted Nugent would
              make a fine president.
              \_ Arnold! I used to scoff at Arnie's chances but I'm coming to
                 see that if legally enabled he might actually do it.
                 \_ You do realize that the barriers to Constitutional
                    Amendments are so high that this has almost no
                    chance of happening, right?

2025/07/08 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular

7/8

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2008/10/30-31 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51744 Activity:nil

10/30   WELL KNOWN SOCIALIST RAG THE ECONOMIST ENDORSES OBAMA
        http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12516666&source=features_box_main
        \_ Sounds great.  Are they atoning yet for endorsing Bush?
           \_ I thought they endorsed Kerry last time around.
               \_  Well they definitely endorsed W in 2000.
                   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_editorial_stance
	...

2008/9/18-23 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51233 Activity:moderate

9/18    What an energy expert!
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvUsdmqGYV8
        Christ, has she been taking lessons from Miss Teen S. Carolina?
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww
        \_ Keep laughing. It's not WHAT you say but HOW you say it.
           Keep laughing. You're going to regret it.
	...

2008/9/20-23 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51247 Activity:moderate

9/20    "Moose Shooting Mama", a country music about Sarah Palin, is
        #4 most popular country download this week. She makes a
        great VP, yeehaw!!!
        \_ She's going to make an even better wtf footnote when Obama
           wins.
           \_ History has proven over and over again that ignorance,
	...

2008/9/12-18 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51148 Activity:nil

9/12    The latest blatant lies from McCain
        http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/belittling_palin.html
        \_ Facts don't matter to 1/3 of the voters. Emotions do.
           I'm rooting for Obama but I know McCain is going to win. Oh well.
           \_ *sad face*
           \_ If the election was held today, I think Obama would just squeak
	...

2008/9/10-14 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:51124 Activity:nil

9/10    McCain is morally unfit to be president
        http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/mccains-integri.html
        \_ From the guy saying we should interview Palin's OB to find out if
           Trig is really her baby?
           \_ So you've got nothing to respond to his charges.
              \_ No, just that everything that comes out of Sullivan's face
	...

2008/8/21-26 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:50928 Activity:moderate

8/21    What's the big deal with arugula anyway?  When did this become a
        talking point?  I like arugula.
        \_ Please give more context, thanks.
           \_ Apparently the McCain campaign keeps bringing this up.
              \_ if this election is won or lost on whether McCain can convince
                 Americans that Obama is a weird arugula
	...

2008/6/30-7/14 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:50422 Activity:nil

6/30    That Wesley Clark, class act right there.
        http://www.politicususa.com/en/Clark-FTN
        \_ How was Clark questioning McCain's record?  In what way was this
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           \_ It wasn't.  The right is just filled with Righteous Anger with
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2008/7/1-14 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:50434 Activity:low

7/01    Obama's continuing flip-flops.  This time on same-sex marriage
        http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/1051404.html
        \_ hey guess what dittoheads: conservatives are the only people who
           care about "flip flops."  The rest of us call it "reconsidering."
           \_ I don't think _anyone_ here listens to Limbaugh.  You might as
              well put that one to bed.
	...

2008/6/9-12 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:50190 Activity:nil

6/8     Obama backpeadals on his pro-Israel statement
        http://csua.org/u/lq5
        \_ How often do you read the Jpost?
        \_ John Kerry II.
           \_ Like John McCain on waterboarding?
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2008/6/3-5 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:50146 Activity:moderate

6/3     Since no one else seems to be willing to bite, here is my case
        for Obama:
        1) He was always against the War. This shows good judgement and
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        up in the tide of emotion and then apologized for their mistake,
        but better to have not made the mistake in the first place.
	...

2008/6/3 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:50137 Activity:very high

6/3     Since no one else seems to be willing to bite, here is my case
        for Obama:
        1) He was always against the War. This shows good judgement and
        political courage. I have some sympathy for those who got swept
        up in the tide of emotion and then apologized for their mistake,
        but better to have not made the mistake in the first place.
	...

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www.electoral-vote.com/info/welcome.htmlThus watching the electoral vote is more important than watching the national polls. This website is dedicated to tracking the electoral vote by examining the state-by-state polls. As new state polls are released, the maps, spreadsheets, tables, graphs, and movies will be updated. In the maps, the white states are essentially tossups and are subject to rapid fluctuations. To the right of the map are several links, as follows: Link name Description Data in Excel format Who conducted each state poll and when Data in Battleground states Who is strong, weak, and barely ahead in which state Info about the states Population, electoral votes, party affiliation of elected officials Previous report Link to yesterday's page Next report Link to tomorrow's page (except for today) News Today's commentary by the votemaster Polling methodology and using polls is not as simple as you might think. Polling methodology file explains polling and the methodology used here in detail. For this reason, polls released during the course of a day will not show up until the next morning. Please DO NOT send e-mail announcing a new poll until you have checked the site the next morning. Getting 1000 e-mails about a poll I already know about is not so much fun. Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan. If you are a Kerry supporter, an independent, a moderate Republican who is fed up with the President's fiscal and other policies or even a conservative Republican who feels betrayed and who has a sense of humor, you will probably enjoy them. With today's information overload, feeds are fast becoming an excellent way to manage the flows. I would also like to thank 'Grumpy' for producing the software that makes the bar charts, state poll graphs, daily electoral college graph and more. RJ Parsons provided lots of Excel expertise to make the spreadsheets have pretty colors that change automatically as the polls go up and down and other useful features. Matt Massie produced one of the movies on the More data page.

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www.electoral-vote.comNews electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (109) electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (96) electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (75) electoral college tied Exactly tied (20) electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (56) electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (40) electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (142) Needed to win: 270 Aug. Enhancements News from the Votemaster We have three new polls today, including all-important Florida. Zogby's poll of Florida posted yesterday had Kerry 1% ahead. A Gallup poll taken a day later has Bush 2% ahead, so we now award Florida to Bush for the moment. Both of these polls are within the MoE so the state is still a statistical tie. The Gallup poll was based on 1002 people, so the 3% change was based on 30 additional Bush supporters in Gallup's sample compared to Zogby's. That's tiny, yet the electoral college gap narrowed today by 54 votes. We may have to wait until all the votes are counted--several times-- before we know. Missouri and Colorado are currently tied but suppose Bush squeaks through in both and the Colorado referendum fails. Then Bush picks up 20 votes in the electoral college and the score would be Kerry 280, Bush 258. In that scenario, Bush has won the three critical states: Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, and still lost the election. That's why battles are raging in some of the smaller states, like Nevada, New Mexico, and West Virginia. I don't believe that for a second, just as I am not convinced that Kerry is leading in Tennesse or that Colorado is a tie. Remember even with the impeccable methodology and no monkey business, about 5% of the time you get a sample mean that is more than two standard deviations from the true mean just due to bad luck. This site has far more about the election than just the map.