3/7 http://www.ofheo.gov/media/hpi/AREA_LIST.pdf
Conforming loan limits are now $729,750 for the San Jose-Sunnyvale-
Santa Clara area. Even more for a duplex. Expiring end of 2008.
Buy-buy-buy!
\_ This only lasts till end of 2008 right? It's suppose to
save the presidency or something.
\_ How do I find out my area?
\_ "housing, it only goes up!"
"They aren't making any more land!"
"Buy now, before you get priced out!"
\_ I am glad I bought in 2002, before I got priced out...
\_ Where would you have gotten priced out?
\_ San Francisco, specifically Noe Valley
\_ Just wait. Given real value decreases I'm sure we'll
be back around 2002 prices fairly soon.
\_ You are sure that Noe Valley is in for 50% drop
in real prices soon? I am sure you are wrong.
Are you one of those bitter renters, perhaps?
\_ No. By the way, "bitter renter" accusations are
essentially a Godwin equivalent at this point in
the housing mess. The last thing that any
renter is right now is bitter.
\_ Nonsense. The bitter renters have been harping
on the motd for years. If they had bought
back then they'd still be above their purchase
price and would actually be on their way to
owning something instead of supporting their
landlord's yachting adventures.
\_ It is not really a yacht, just a 32 foot
wooden sailboat...
\_ Does that Koolaid taste good?
\_ Nationally, home equity levels are the lowest
ever. They'd be renting from the bank like
the rest of America.
\_ Up 50% after the all the drops. It
tastes *great*! Thanks for asking.
How is your landlord doing lately?
Better than you I'd wager.
\_ Nationally, home equity levels are the
lowest ever. They'd be renting from the
bank like the rest of America.
\_ Which has nothing to do with prices and
everything to do with individuals taking
money out of their equity to buy toys.
That has nothing at all to do with the
economy, housing, or anything. Just
people being dumb and greedy. I did
not take out anything when I refi'd and
every month I own a bit more.
\_ So are you or aren't you predicting a real
drop in Noe Valley home prices of 50% "real
soon"? Can you define real soon a little more
precisely please?
\_ Hard to tell, but I'd expect within a time
frame of 5 to 7 years. Depends a lot on
whether the dollar continues to become
more worthless, which I think is a good bet.
\_ Home prices have traditionally done
okay in a period of high inflation.
Not great, but not that bad, especially
if you have a mortgage that is getting
inflated away as well. Where would you
\- yes you are paying with inflated
dollars, but some of you house
apprecaition is nominal appreciation.
rather keep your assets? Gold? And even
if your rather pessimistic prediction
comes true, I will have lived in a place
for 10 years for the cost of mortgage +
taxes + maint - tax break, which is
already less than rent for me.
\_ I'm sure you'll be fine, given that
you didn't buy in the truly inane
bubble periods and you probably have
a pretty sane loan. And I'll be
a perfectly happy "bitter renter"
on the sidelines until I need to buy
and prices are a little more
realistic. But this conforming
limit change certainly does not
mean "buy buy buy." For more on the
requirements for "jumbo conforming"
see here:
http://csua.org/u/kzo
(calculated risk)
The DTI, LTV, and re-fi requirements
seem daunting to me. Won't be
surprised if these end up costing
more than a traditional jumbo.
\_ I would not buy today either. Or
in 2005-2006, when things were
crazy. To tell you the truth, I
was kind of nervous buying even in
2002. But I guess it all worked
out, barring a huge deflationary
period (that is when people with
$1/2M loans really get screwed).
\_ I was certain I was buying
at the top in 2001 and boy
was I wrong. It's hard to
predict tops/bottoms so just
buy when you can afford to.
\_ Certainly home owners will do better
than renters in an inflationary economy;
mortgage payment relative to income will
decrease, while rent will not.
By the way, from what I can tell from the rules on these
"jumbo conforming loans," the price savings in the end as compared
to normal jumbos will be a wash.
\_ Bitter renter?
\_ Happy renter, but thanks for the generic troll. By the way,
the DTI requirement on these new loans means they aren't gonna
change much of anything, at least not in the Bay.
\_ I say bitter renter because you cared enough to check. If
you're so happy what's it matter what the requirements are
or what effect they will/wont have on prices?
\_ Curiousity, and a general fear that the economy is about
to go in the dumper. There are other reasons to care
about this stuff than house envy.
\_ It doesn't matter what the economy is doing: so long
as you have skills and some cash on hand, you'll
be fine. |
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