www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1723630/posts
The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.
View Replies To: West Coast Conservative I never doubted all along. And I think we might do even a little bit better than that -- it's not time for Evil to even come close to prevailing ...
View Replies To: West Coast Conservative When you live inside the Beltway, it must be harder to ignore all the bad news, like the "generic" polls that the over-sampled Democrats almost always "win".
Clearly the GOP voter suppression drive isn't working - this article indicates a change in democrat strategy. make the GOPer's think there's nothing to worry about so perhaps more will stay home thinking everything is okay.
View Replies To: West Coast Conservative The only 'shock' is to the MSM and the Euro-Weenies and Al Qaeda members who have been listening to and believing everything they hear on CNN Intl and BBC.
View Replies To: West Coast Conservative Normally, 9 times out of 10, the party in power loses some seats in the midterm. That did not happen in 2002, because the Dems screwed up and Bush was popular. The pro-life vote and the Evangelicals, in particular, were a major factor. Bush has not done a whole lot the past two years, compared to his first term, except for the major accomplishment of two strong SCOTUS appointments. It was a big mistake to come out of the gate with Social Security as his lead item, because he lost a ton of momentum on that. However, it would be delusional to think that Republicans will vote for the Democrats because of Iraq or Foley. Republicans who vote regularly will certainly get out and vote Republican. There may be some possible loss among Evangelicals, who in the past often didn't vote, because they were more focused on the next world and not too excited about either party. The Dems and the media have done a lot to anger the conservative voters this past month. And they have offered very little in the way of a program to their base. It is certainly key to get out and vote, and bring any friends with you that you can.
View Replies To: BigSkyFreeper "the side with the most money to spend wins" Oh, I don't know. If you count all the money behind the msm, I think the dems probably come out with the biggest bucks. But I don't think the dems have counted on people like me who will go out and vote precisely because of all the bias being shown.
View Replies To: balch3 "what's their track record using this methodology?" Grain o salt time, its a weak methodology based on fundraising comparisons. It works as a good correlation, but it wont predict undercurrents of voter sentiment like we may have in 06.
Right now I think we stay at 55, and lose Chafee at the same time. If we win both we are plus 1 @ 56, if we lose both we are -1 to 54. I see Kennedy(MN), McGavick(WA) and Bouchard(MI) still as long shots, but their chances could well improve by Nov 7 I think Bouchard has the best chance of the three.
SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- October 2006 Update In the House I still stick with -7 to -10 and retaining control. I also think we win the two Dem House seats in GA (Barrow, Marshall) with Collins and Burns for a net gain of two in the GA GOP delegation, plus we get McLooney out of her seat replaced by someone less of a barking moonbat. If anyone wants on or off the Senate 2006 ping list, send me Freepmail.
Don't rely on wonk predictions, sit back and figure the other guy or gal will do the voting for you. That's a recipe for a really bad post election day hangover.
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