6/5     Poll: Stock market will do the following in the next 2 weeks
        rise                                                            1
        fall                                                            0
        .com bubble will burst and housing will again be affordable     1
        stay in the same range as now, little up/down                   1
        \_ summary: the bay area sucks. leave after graduation, and you
           can spend your smaller salary on a superior lifestyle.
        \_ The .com bubble bursting won't make housing affordable.  All the
           .com people in the bay area won't suddenly vanish over night.  This
           is the theory/prayer of the poor (under $125k total income).  Forget
           it.  Since the spring down turn, housing prices have continued to
           _rise_.  Housing prices are based on supply/demand more than on .com
           cash which is another semi-myth.
                \_ You're not gonna buy a decent HOUSE earning only $125K!
                   You need some one-off stock options.
                \_ Under $125k?? ouch. How expensive of a house can you get for
                   that income anyway?
                   \_ How far do you want to push it?  Get a really expensive
                      loan and pay some high rates and you can go to $650.  If
                      you're not insane, you can do $400k without losing sleep.
                \_ There will continue to be *need* for housing if there's
                   a stock market crash.  In economic terms, "demand" is
                   the combination of "need" and "willingness/ability to pay".
                   So while a stock market crash won't necessarily reduce the
                   need for housing, it will reduce the demand.
                   I think it's unlikely prices will significantly drop,
                   however.  The first thing that will happen is a reduction
                   in over-bids, and then houses will start to stay on the
                   market at lot longer at current listing prices.  There's
                   a lot of slop there to take out before anyone will start
                   cutting prices on houses.   -tom
                   \_ Going from 1 day on-market-to-sale to 7 days on-market-
                      to-sale is still way out there especially compared to the
                      rest of the country where 6+ months isn't unusual and the
                      bid is almost always under asking, not over, and usually
                      includes non-cash incentives from the _seller_.
                \_ so under what condition will housing again be affordable?
                   \_ How about a nice game of Global Thermonuclear War.
                        \_ At which point housing goes to those with the most
                           functional weaponry.
                   \_ None really.  There are always more people but God isn't
                      making more land.  Historically speaking, housing prices
                      _always_ rise.  Yes, there are periods of ups and downs
                      but overall, especially in the bay area, housing will
                      continue on the upward slide to infinity.  The cheaper
                      housing just moves further out and there's a very limited
                      amount of 'core' housing (ie: close to SV and/or SF).
                      Think of this, a new home in East Palo Alto, the recent
                      murder capitol of the country (or was it world?) will run
                      $400k to $450k _and_ you have to *compete* to get it.  In
                      short, don't hold your breath.
        \_ http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/examiner/hotnews/stories/01/Bhomes.dtl
                        Housing prices have already stopped rising.