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| 7/13 |
| 2005/7/30-8/2 [Politics/Domestic/California] UID:38887 Activity:low |
7/30 Democrats do better in Snow Belts, worse in Sun Belts:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,164196,00.html
\_ This article falsely implies that a majority of Latinos
voted Republican in a number of states. Bush did better
than most Republicans with Latinos, but still lost by
about a 60-38 ratio. The Emerging Democratic Majority
crowd is pinning their hopes on Latinos, so this article
is correct that Democrats need to hold onto those voters.
But as long as Tancredo is the voice of immigration in
the GOP, that shouldn't be too hard.
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/nadler200412080811.asp
http://lin.kz/?sf66j
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/nadler200412080811.asp
\_ Cf. Cuban exiles in Florida. |
| 7/13 |
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| www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,164196,00.html FOXFAN CENTRAL Democrats Must Tighten Grip on Sun Belt Voters Saturday, July 30, 2005 By Martin Frost STORIES The Democratic Leadership Council, a major group of centrist Democrats, m et recently in Columbus, Ohio, to discuss the future of the Democratic P arty and to consider what Democrats need to do to win national elections . They might have taken a moment to look at the numbers, because therein li es the story. A recent study by the Brookings Institution says it all: The Electoral College Moves to the Sun Belt. Electoral votes move around after each once-in-a-decade census. Electoral votes are based on the number of Congressional seats each state has plus two extra votes for the states two US Senators. And Congressional seats are reallocated each 10 years to reflect population growth patterns. The reason that the Brookings study is so important is that as a rule, Re publicans have been doing better in the Sun Belt (the South and West) an d Democrats, as a general mater, have been doing better in the Snow Belt . If Democrats dont learn how to campaign better in the Sun Belt, the p arty may be over. According to the Brookings study, the Sun Belt co ntrolled 271 electoral votes after the 1970 census and the Snow Belt con trolled 267 electoral votes, for a net margin of only four. After the 20 00 census, the Sun Belt controlled 313 electoral votes and the Snow Belt controlled 225 electoral votes for a margin of 88 electoral votes. Foll owing the 2030 census (just 25 years from now), projections are that the Sun Belt will control 342 electoral votes and the Snow Belt only l96 vo tes, for a margin of 146 votes. There are some exceptions to all this Democrats win some Sun Belt state s (California, Oregon, Washington and Maryland) and Republicans do win s ome Snow Belt states (Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska ), but the overall pattern is set. Thus, Republicans currently have a bu ilt-in growing margin in the Electoral College if Democrats dont make s ignificant changes. History demonstrates the recent dominance of the Sun Belt rather dramatic ally. During the last 40 years, every person elected President regardles s of party has come from the Sun Belt: Lyndon Johnson (Texas), Richard N ixon (California), Jimmy Carter (Georgia), Ronald Reagan (California), G eorge Bush (Texas), Bill Clinton (Arkansas), and George W Bush (Texas). During these same 40 years, Democrats have lost presidential elections ev ery time they nominated someone from the Snow Belt: Hubert Humphrey (Min nesota), George McGovern (South Dakota), Walter Mondale (Minnesota), Mik e Dukakis (Massachusetts), and John Kerry (Massachusetts). The only time Democrats lost with candidates from the Sun Belt were Jimmy Carter (run ning for re-election) and Al Gore (Tennessee). Nominating someone from the Sun Belt or someon e who clearly resonates with concerns of the Sun Belt is the obvious ans wer. Beyond that, there are several other approaches that must also be underta ken. For openers, Democrats must stop the bleeding among Hispanic voters who h ave been trending toward Republican candidates in recent elections. Hisp anics are key swing voters in Sun Belt states like New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Texas, Florida and California. All of these states wen t Republican in 2004 except California. Democrats cannot permit this to become a permanent situation. Additionally, Democrats must find ways to make inroads in the Southern pa rt of the Sun Belt which is now overwhelmingly Republican. Border states like West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas and Virginia may be t he best shots. Finally, Democrats must win back some of the Snow Belt states that they h ave lost in recent presidential elections such as Missouri, Iowa and Ohi o Blue collar, middle class voters are the key target audiences in thos e states. Democrats must establish that they are not hostile to religiou s values and that they have something to offer on basic economic issues to be competitive in these states. Our country is best served when we have two truly competitive parties. As a Democrat, I hope my party can figure out how to get back in the game. Martin Frost served in Congress from 1979 to 2005, representing a diverse district in the Dallas-Ft. He served two terms as chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, the third-ranking leadership position fo r House Democrats, and two terms as chairman of the Democratic Congressi onal Campaign Committee. Frost serves as a regular contributor to FOX Ne ws Channel. He holds a Bachelor of Journalism degree from the University of Missouri and a law degree from the Georgetown Law Center. |
| www.nationalreview.com/comment/nadler200412080811.asp December 08, 2004, 8:11 am Bushs Real Hispanic Numbers Debunking the debunkers. By Richard Nadler On November 3, the National Election Pool (NEP) reported that George W B ush received 44 percent of Hispanic votes cast on November 2: a 9-percen tage-point gain from his 35-percent performance in 2000. Since then, the se figures have been widely challenged, and internally revised. Ruy Teixeira of the Century Foundation estimates that 39 percent of Hispa nics voted Republican. NBC, a part of the NEP pool, now calculates Bushs Latino vote at 40 percent. Immigration critic Steve Sailer of VDARE acknowledges a 3-4 percent Bush increase, but doubts its significance. Bushs Latino gains, he writes, co nfirm the general pattern that the Hispanic vote for Republicans rises a nd falls in the same cycles as the white vote just consistently more D emocratic. A closer examinat ion of the NEP numbers shows that Bushs gains among Hispanics, although lower than initially estimated, were both real and significant. Specific ally, the GOPs increased Latino vote share offset the potential Democrat advantage from a hefty increase in Hispanic registration and voting. But talk of a GOP average gain masks how that gain was distributed. In st ates where conservative 527 groups, such as Council for Better Governmen t and Hispanics Together (both of which I served as a consultant), ran i ntensive campaigns on Spanish-language media, the presidents Hispanic vo te share increased sharply. In states where no such effort occurred, his Latino vote share improved hardly at all. What is a reasonable estimate of Bushs performance among Hispanics? The most significant internal correction by NEP pollster Edison Media Res earch and Mitofsky International involved Bushs Hispanic vote share in T exas. The NEP recalculated the percentage of Latinos in its Texas sample from 23 to 20 percent, and the pro-Bush Latino percentage from 59 to 49 . This revision al one lowered Bushs national numbers 2-percentage points. The NEP survey was by far the largest post-election poll, dwarfing those of the Los Angeles Times, the New York Times, and the Velasquez Institut e Over 13,600 respondents, including 1,100 Hispanics, completed the lon g form on which the initial Hispanic numbers were based. An additional 6 2,600 respondents, including 3,600 Hispanics, completed the short form, on which the NEP based its state exit polls. The NEP state exit polls, as published on the CNN and MSNBC websites, bro ke out Hispanic numbers in 20 states: That is, they gave the total numbe r of subjects interviewed, the percent of those who were Hispanic, and t he percent of Hispanics who voted for Bush and for Kerry. From this, one can calculate the number of Hispanics surveyed in each of the 20 states , and the numbers who voted for Bush and for Kerry in each. These 20 states account for 91 percent of the nations Hispanic population . Respondents, including 3,586 Hispanics, completed 35,891 short-form su rveys. But the NEP sampled battleground states more heavily than non-battlegro und states. To political professionals, a gross three- point shift in vote share will translate into a 5 or 6 net vote shift pe r hundred cast. It is by the sum of such shifts, demographic group by de mographic group, that elections are lost or won. In 2000, the Voter News Service (VNS), predecessor to the NEP, reported a Gore victory among Latinos of 62-to-35 percent, or 27 votes per 100. At 62-to-35 percent, this gave Gore a 1,620,000-vote victory over Bush among Latinos nationw ide. In 2004, Hispanic turnout rose by roughly 25 percent, to 75 million vote rs. Had the Democrats held their 2000 margin, their national advantage a mong Hispanics would have grown by 405,000, to 2,025,000. The improved B ush percentage in 2004 nullified this gain completely, holding the Democ rat advantage in the Hispanic community to the same 1,620,000 as in 2000 . The impact of a massive and successful Democratic voter registration d rive was nullified. BREAKING IT DOWN But the 20-state set hides, rather than reveals, the factors that determi ned Republican progress (or lack thereof) among Hispanic voters. In Ariz ona, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, and Wisconsin six battlegr ound states, containing an NEP sample size of 1,768 Hispanic voters co nservative 527 groups ran a vigorous 12,000-spot broadcast campaign on S panish-language media in support of the GOP ticket. In the remaining 14 states, containing an NEP sample size of 1,818 Hispanic voters no s uch campaign aired. Now, the 6 states with ads include Florida, traditionally the most Republ ican of the Hispanic populations. This prior disposition of Florida Hisp anics obviously skews the 6-state set. Is there some other way to compar e Bushs performance in program and non-program states? We can examine Republican vote-share changes on the margin. Exit-poll pool member CNN lists changes in Bushs vote in 4 of the 6 progr am states on its website. Comparing the 2004 NEP state exit polls to the ir 2000 VNS counterparts, Bushs Hispanic share grew 5 points in Colorado , 7 in Florida, 9 in Arizona, and 12 in New Mexico. The sample size in t hese four states is still a healthy 1,503. Weighting these states by His panic population, so that the GOPs 12-point increase in New Mexico is no t treated equally with, say, Floridas 7-point increase, the weighted GOP increase in the 4-state sample is 760 percent a shift of better than 15 votes per hundred for President Bush. This performance was broadly consistent with the 2002 results of similar pro-GOP Spanish-language broadcast campaigns, which saw top-line Republi can performance in Senate and gubernatorial races increase 614-percenta ge points. In other words, when Republicans have aggressively courted Hispanic votes , they have won them. And when we havent, GOP Latino vote-share numbers have barely budged. Almost all conservative progress on minority media has been generated in the 527 world, by party irregulars. The official organs of the Republica n party have been missing in action, producing either weak product or no product for mass-minority audiences. What would have happened had the Republican party and its fellow traveler s campaigned aggressively nation-wide on Univision, Telemundo, and Spani sh-language radio? Extrapolating from results in the 527 program states, Kerrys projected ma jority of 2,025,000 votes could have been reduced by nearly half, to 1,0 35,000: a one million vote swing in a voting population of roughly 75 m illion. VOTING AND IMMIGRATION Steve Sailer and his friends in the anti-immigration lobby regularly crit icize efforts to woo Hispanic voters two ways. First, they contend that the Hispanic vote tracks the white vote anyhow, making such efforts supe rfluous. Second, they contend such efforts constitute a sell-out to advo cates of open borders and mass immigration. Above, weve seen that th e Hispanic vote tracks whats happening on the ground in particular place s, not some macro-trend. But even in its generalized (ie, irrelevant) form, this assertion is untrue. Look at the trends in white and Hispanic voting for Republican presidential candidates over the last 28 years in the New York Times exit polls: 1976-1980: White vote +4, Hispanic vote +9 1980-1984: White vote + 8, Hispanic vote +4 1984-1988: White vote -5, Hispanic vote -7 1988-1992: White vote -19, Hispanic vote -9 1992-1996: White vote +6, Hispanic vote -4 1996-2000: White vote +8, Hispanic vote +10 Over the entire period, the average variation between changes in white an d Hispanic voting was 55 points per election. To an election strategist , these figures signal wild variation. Any professional looking at those numbers would seek independent variables to explain them. And the first thing hed examine is differences in the communications that the two gro ups are receiving. The second assertion that Spanish-language campaigns are a sell-out to advocates of open borders is a non sequitur. The ads of Republican 527 s could have been so designed. In 2002, the Coun cil for Better Government campaigns featured 15 scripts, not one of whic h dealt with immigration. I... |
| lin.kz/?sf66j -> bustywebshots.blogspot.com/ This blog is devoted to the natural beauty of young voluptuous girls. Post your findings and links in the "comments" area in any of the followi ng posts. Ill make new posts every week so check back often and share yo ur pictures! Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link into your browser to visit her websh ots gallery. The link to the parewinkl galleries was posted on this blog a while back but there are plenty more new pictures and galleries to see. Browse thro ugh the galleries and make sure to click on the links to her friends gal leries on the left of webshots. Im sure there are more pictures worth vi ewing - her chest is growing! Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link into your browser to visit her websh ots gallery. Three new albums posted this July with plenty of pictures. Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link into your browser to visit her websh ots gallery. Also it seems she might be putting on some weight - shes slightly thicker then usual and in a few p ictures she almost looks pregnant. Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link into your browser to visit her websh ots gallery. Another great find by a visitor of this blog - thanks for y our help! and other albums of her friends, few more pics here and there. Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link into your browser to visit her websh ots gallery. More pictures of her that she just released in a set of new albums. Again , the drinking and sillyness can be seen, but her round chest is in many of the pictures. Get these while you can, for this girl is quite popula r and she may pull her pictures should she get too many weirdos trying t o email her or something. Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link into your browser to visit her websh ots gallery. Popular girl with a small handful of pictures of her partying and living it up. Links were posted to her pictures a while back but I never got ar ound to making a post about her. Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link above into your browser to visit her webshots gallery. A fair bit of pictures in the Florida gallery of the two of them having fun. Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link above into your browser to visit her webshots gallery. Nice to see someone not afraid of their bodies and being goofy i n front of the camera. Have a look at the picture of her next to friends a nd family members and its easy to see her lack of height. On a different note, now that blogger has picture hosting for free, all t he small preview shots to the left (starting with this post) will have l inks to a full sized picture if you click on them. Should make it easier to get an idea of the girl for those with monitors that have high resol utions. You will still have to browse the galleries for pictures and sav e them on your own hard drives since I dont have time to host them all ( nor do I know what a "good" picture is - many albums get repetative and many more pictures dont even show off the girls chest, so for some peopl e there might be no point). And I know I say this a lot on these comment areas, but I really really r eally do appriciate the help ive recieved over the past few months. Thanks to everyone who visits and posts c omments or links to a new girl. Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link above into your browser to visit her webshots gallery. Young C or D cupper with braces - thanks to Rallo for the link. Mostly va cation pics and the link below is to a hidden album where most of the pi ctures are. Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link above into your browser to visit her webshots gallery. Not many pictures and she smokes - s o I want to punch her in the face but oh well. Thanks for the link EricD og and yes I agree smoking isnt for me, but to each their own. Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link above into your browser to visit her webshots gallery. Couple of young girls being silly and showing off their chests. Webshots does not support direct linking well so thi s is the work around. Copy the link above into your browser to visit her webshots gallery. Lets hope she maintains her confidence and does will in life. |