www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/08/29/opinion/main639222.shtml
OPTIMISIM CRESTING A new tide of optimism inside the Bush-Chaney campaign, among delegates and with big-money contributors is evident inside the convention hall today and all around the town. The tide began roughly a week to ten days ago when it became obvious to even early doubters that the Swift Boat ad attack against Senator Kerry was damaging himbadly, at least in the short run. With various polls now confirming that Kerry is losing momentum and Bush gaining some, the Republican leadership as well as the rank-and-file is smiling, winking and slapping high-fives. Yes, they know there is still a long way to go but whereas a month ago they were nervous and worried about how poll trends seemed to be developing now they are relieved and convinced they are headed into the Fall with a lead and momentum. To have such optimism cresting just as the convention starts is a campaign manager and convention script writers dream. IN THE OTHER CORNER Among Democrats, high and low, there is considerable grumbling about how and why all this was, in the words of one Kerry consultant, allowed to get this far. The following are typical of comments from Democrats today: Theres Bush out there again today (in West Virginia) on the attack. Our best hope now is that Kerry does well, very well, in the debates. They look like the next chance to change momentum aroundmaybe the only chance Kerry and his staff significantly underestimated the Swift Boat negative campaign assault. It was too slow and not very effective even after it got started. Fair to say that while the very top of the Kerry campaign is urging a no need to panic, its still early attitude, they are nonetheless concerned. Having digested all of this, you may want to keep in mind a well-worn reporters reminder that overnight is a long time in politics; And were still dealing with an election that isnt until November. Among the few who were there, the most popular topic of conversation was whether President Bush might surprise and announce during the convention that Vice President Cheney would not be running with him this year. This rumor has swirled around a bit from time to time throughout the year, the chatter being that Mr Bush would prefer to run with Sen. John McCain or maybe Rudy Giuliani and will sooner or later find a way to do it. No one can be found inside the Bush-Cheney campaign who does anything but scoff at this. That, of course, doesn't keep people from musing about it and some were today, but none of them were anywhere near in a position to know anything. WHADDA BOUT A 'BOUNCE' A quick, strictly unofficial and unscientific survey of a few widely experienced political pros today has them guessing that President Bush's post-convention "bounce" in the polls will range from six to ten points. Keep in mind that these are all political campaign managers and consultants from around the country. If and I underscore the word if this were to happen it would be a major "bounce" by anyone's standards. In contrast, professional political pollsters people who make their livings strictly through polling generally have much more conservative guesses. They range from a one- or two-point bounce to what one of the nations best-known pollsters said: Even which is to say no bounce and possibly a slight minus, like minus one. All of the people your reporter talked to today party pros and the independent pollsters were told they would not be quoted by name. None believed that the Bush-Cheney ticket would come out of the convention trailing the Kerry-Edwards campaign. The consensus is that Bush-Cheney leads nationally now by about 3 points and that even if they dont get much if any convention bounce they still will go into early September with some kind of lead. You may want to note that Vice President Al Gore got a post-convention bounce of some 10 points in 2000. Bush and his people are clearly hoping for better but they wont be stunned or surprised, and certainly not panicked if it isnt. Both sides are convinced that independent and swing voters in a few key states are likely to prove the winning margin, one way or the other, this year. The most often mentioned among those states the ones considered to be absolutely key are Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. One very high Kerry adviser told your reporter today, "Im still convinced the whole election may very well come down to Ohio. He acknowledged that Kerry has slipped a bit in our polling in Ohio the past few weeks, but said Kerry and his staff still believe Ohio is highly winnable for us. He added, But we need to work harder, smarter, better there. In Missouri, another key state on many peoples list, the Kerry man said, our numbers have been slipping there. Whether we can be turned around or not were trying to figure out. Both the Kerry and Bush campaigns appear to be jittery about Florida. No one on either side seems to know how it is trending, although fair to say the Bush people sound a little more confident about it than Kerrys team. One influential Kerry campaign adviser reminded a reporter today that, The presidents brother is governor of Florida and Karl Rove is a longtime expert on that state. That puts us at a disadvantage but were still organizing and fighting hard there.
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