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| 2006/10/19-23 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:44870 Activity:nil |
10/19 http://csua.org/u/h9g http://csua.org/u/h9h (sfgate.com) Bay Area home prices fall on a year-over-year basis for the first time in four years (dot-com bust era). Notice houses (not condos) in Santa Clara and SF make strong gains in exception to Bay Area trend. Notice also that when considered separately, both houses and condos increased in price (fun with statistics). For a real housing hard landing see San Diego County, year-over-year loss of 4.4% for Sep. ob Swami sux. \_ Is 4.4% really that hard after all the up of recent years? \_ i guess if you bought at the high with a neg am. also, SD has been pretty steady for two years (since 3Q04). http://csua.org/u/h9i (latimes.com) CA mortgage default notices now 45% of 1996 Q1 peak \_ Were they still doing the super crazy loans at the peak? I know 3-7 years ago they were doing all sorts of wild stuff but I thought that slowed down a lot in the last 2-3 years. \_ Credit has been looser than ever over the last 2-3 years. You are out of it. \_ ob yermom joke |
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| csua.org/u/h9g -> www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/10/18/MNGTTLRF721.DTL Email This Article Bay Area home prices fell last month for the first time in more than four years, providing evidence that the region's seemingly unstoppable housing market could be starting to hit the skids. The median home price in the nine Bay Area counties slipped 08 percent to $611,000 in September from $616,000 a year earlier, according to DataQuick real estate information service. Those figures include single-family houses and condominiums, existing and new. "This is an enormous real estate bubble, bigger than we've ever seen, and it's got to work its way out of the system one way or the other," said Christopher Thornberg, an economist in the Los Angeles office Beacon Economics, a consulting firm that focuses on the Western states. The Bay Area could be following other regions of the country that already have experienced a decline in prices. The National Association of Realtors reported that the median price for a house nationwide fell 17 percent to $225,000 from $229,000 in August, the first drop since 1995. The median home price in San Diego, for example, fell 44 percent last month from a year earlier, according to DataQuick. In the Denver area, prices in September dropped 08 percent, the same as in the Bay Area. "Housing prices moved up too far, too fast relative to people's incomes,'' said Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley. "The affordability is worse here than most anyplace else, but San Francisco is not the only place this is happening." Economists are divided about how long housing prices will continue to fall. DataQuick analyst John Karevoll says he expects that the downturn will end this year and that prices then will level off. "We're at the end of this real estate cycle," Karevoll said. "We're probably going to plateau out at the end of this year." Others, like Beacon's Thornberg, say it may take longer. "You're going to see this market continue to slowly decline," he said. "You're not going to ever see any explosive depreciation in prices. But you're going to continue to see prices go down at an annualized pace of 2 or 3 percent, and that's going to continue and continue and continue." The DataQuick report found that a proliferation of relatively low-cost condos in the East Bay weighed down the housing market. "There's a bunch of cheap stuff selling," Karevoll said. "There's a big chunk of condo conversion units in the East Bay, and those are generally cheaper than most other properties." are converting a 1,000-unit apartment complex into condos. The units start at $280,000, and about half have been sold. That project and others like it underscore the big difference between new construction and existing single-family homes. New construction saw a sharper decline in price than existing single-family homes, which remain a relatively bright spot in the market. The median price of an existing single-family home posted a modest gain since this time last year, increasing 11 percent in the nine counties to $653,000, according to DataQuick. In San Francisco, the price of an existing single-family home rose 55 percent to $800,000, the biggest increase of any Bay Area county. "Most homeowners are simply going to wait out the slowdown," said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. "For a builder, an empty new home is inventory that needs to be moved." Sellers say they are feeling the sting of a market that is no longer skewed in their favor. "It used to be that all you had to do is put up a 'for sale' sign in front of the house and tell people if they didn't put in an offer by a certain date, the house would be gone -- and it was," said Claudette Center, who is trying to sell a Bernal Heights home that belonged to her uncle. After gutting the kitchen, refinishing the floors and putting in new bathrooms, she still hasn't received any offers, and traffic at open houses has been slow, she said. "I understand that if I really want to sell the house fast, I'll probably have to drop the price," she said. Across the state, inventory more than doubled in the past year. At the end of August, there was a 68-month supply of housing on the market compared with a 26-month supply in August 2005, according to the California Association of Realtors. The number is calculated by looking at how long it would take to sell all of the houses on the market if sales continued at the current rate. Historically, California has had about 7 to 10 months of inventory, according to the realty group. This means the current supply is close to normal but it feels like a significant change after a tight market. As buyers continued to take their time, the number of all homes sold, new and existing, sank to a five-year low last month, dropping almost 30 percent from September 2005, DataQuick found. The total number of houses and condos sold fell to 7,907 in September from 11,205 a year earlier. DataQuick releases monthly reports based on filings with county recorders' offices. Sonoma County experienced the steepest drop in existing single-family home prices, at 82 percent. In Napa County, prices declined 65 percent and in Marin County, prices were off 33 percent. Some sellers say they aren't willing to wait for the market to improve. After five open houses, a $40,000 price-cut and three months on the market, Leslie Nakajima hasn't had a single offer on her three-bedroom house in Potrero Hill. Nakajima, who does public relations for tech firms, said she's surprised it's taking so long to sell. She was considering taking a job in Seattle last year and put the house on the market last fall. After just two weeks, she received two offers, including one for $975,000. She decided against the new job and turned down the bidder. Now, she's decided to move to Europe and is asking $949,000 for her house. "Market forces are changing and buyers feel like they want to look at everything," Nakajima said. If she hasn't received any offers by month's end, Nakajima said she'll stop trying to sell the house, which she bought 2 1/2 years ago. "They aren't building single-family homes up on the hill in San Francisco any more,'' said Nakajima. But I'm not desperate, and just breaking even is not really what I had in mind." |
| csua.org/u/h9h -> www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2006/10/18/MNGTTLRF721.DTL&o=2 Home prices slip after 4 hot years / Median figure for Bay Area dips from $616,000 to $611,000 Bay Area House and Condo Sales in September. |
| csua.org/u/h9i -> www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclose19oct19,0,3206904,full.story Large Text Size Large Text Size Change text size More Homeowners Going Into Default A housing market slowdown combined with rising payments on adjustable-rate loans is leading to a sharp hike in notices from lenders. By David Streitfeld and Martin Zimmerman, Times Staff Writers October 19, 2006 The number of Californians who are significantly behind on their mortgage payments and at risk of losing their homes to foreclosure more than doubled in the three months ended Sept. Lenders sent out 26,705 default notices -- the first step toward a foreclosure -- during the July-to-September period, up from 12,606 during the same quarter in 2005, according to DataQuick Information Systems. ADVERTISEMENT Defaults are still well below their peak level of 59,897, which came in the first three months of 1996, as the state's last housing slowdown was ending. But the report shows that the slumping housing market is taking a toll on more homeowners -- especially those with mortgages that offer low initial payments at the cost of higher bills down the road. "We were putting buyers in homes with loans they could not afford to sustain over the long haul," said Bob Casagrand, a San Diego real estate agent. "If you're a marginal buyer with an adjustable mortgage, you're rolling the dice on the future." Foreclosures are rare when the housing market is strong and prices are rising. In those conditions, borrowers can usually sell their homes quickly, or they have enough equity to allow them to refinance their loans. But in another disquieting sign, DataQuick reported that 19% of the owners who went into default earlier in the year actually lost their homes to foreclosure in the third quarter, more than triple the 6% in 2005. Mortgage payments are such a big part of the household budget for many Californians that it takes only a little trouble to fall behind. For Stacey and Mike Broussard, all it took was an exceptionally rainy spring. That meant Mike Broussard was laid off from his job as a heavy equipment operator. "I tried to juggle things around -- we were eating a lot of peanut butter and a lot of beans -- but it got out of control," said Stacey Broussard, 39. She was in charge of the bills and each month would pay what she could of the $1,300 the lender expected for the mortgage on their home northeast of San Francisco in Antioch. At the end of August, she said, she tried to make another partial payment, but the lender said anything less than a full payment would lead to a default. One day her husband said she had a notice from the post office to pick up a special letter. Mike Broussard is now employed again, and the couple -- who are lucky enough to have equity in their home -- are working with TerraCotta Group, a Manhattan Beach real estate and mortgage company that specializes in helping delinquent homeowners get out of default. When she started TerraCotta 2 1/2 years ago, company President Tingting Zhang said two or three people would come through her door on the typical day looking for help. "And we haven't reached the peak yet," said Zhang, who believes that the combination of rising interest rates and high-risk mortgages could spell defeat for a rising number of borrowers. Just Wednesday morning, Zhang dealt with a Lancaster resident who had taken out a $310,000 adjustable-rate mortgage with a starter interest rate of 54% and a monthly payment of $1,050. In July, the interest rate climbed to 85% and the monthly payment jumped to $2,306. A year-end adjustment will send the monthly payment to $2,744. "The borrower is totally unprepared for this rate adjustment," Zhang said. The fallout is starting to show up in the workload at credit counseling outfits. Gary Aguilar, counseling manager for Springboard, a nonprofit credit counseling agency in Riverside, said the amount of mortgage-related work he and his staff were doing had "pretty much tripled this year." The softening of the housing market was the trigger, as new homeowners with little or no equity in their properties found themselves unable to sell at a high enough price to pay off the balance of the loan and still cover all of the sale expenses. "Whereas a year ago, people could have put their house on the market and sold their way out of the problem, now they're stuck with the house," said Richard Pittman, housing services coordinator for credit counselor ByDesign Financial Solutions in Los Angeles. "I've talked to two in the last week who thought they had a done deal, and when it came to putting the loan together, they came up short" and their house went to auction, he said. More than half of the loans that went into default in the third quarter were made last year, DataQuick said. The homeowners were a median of five months behind on their payments when they entered the foreclosure process, meaning half were more than five months behind and half were less. The median delinquent debt was $9,829 on a $306,000 mortgage. The housing market in San Diego County peaked earlier than the rest of California, so it's not surprising that default notices rose particularly quickly there. They climbed 160% in the quarter, more than twice the pace in Los Angeles County. "In the vast majority of cases, the default notices are falling disproportionately on the entry-level market," said John Hokkanen, a San Diego agent. "These are people who don't have any reserves in a time of crisis." Foreclosures also can weaken housing values further as lenders put the foreclosed homes on the market, often at reduced prices in hopes of a quick sale. But although experts believe the default and foreclosure numbers will continue to grow, few see them accompanying a painful housing collapse as occurred in the early 1990s. "I don't think it's time to panic," said Christopher Cagan, an analyst with First American Real Estate Solutions in Santa Ana. "People have gotten so used to sellers able to command whatever they want on whatever terms they want. DataQuick analyst John Karevoll concurred: "We're still seeing foreclosure activity below an average of the last 19 years. I'm not convinced the numbers are going to continue going up at this rate, unless something major happens to the economy." One hopeful factor is that the state's economy is much stronger and more diversified than it was 15 years ago, when the aerospace industry was downsizing with the end of the Cold War. In addition, there hasn't been a repeat of the 1980s building boom, which created an oversupply of homes and helped fuel the downward spiral in housing prices in the 1990s. "Historically, we're in a different place than we were then," said economist Christopher Thornberg, who watched the '90s slump unfold as a graduate student at UCLA and now has a consulting firm. On the downside, he noted, "we have never seen a run-up in housing prices like this and we've never seen these kinds of mortgages." Zhang agreed: "Back then, you put 20% down and got a 30-year fixed-rate loan. Now, we have a lot of people who got mortgages when they really shouldn't have qualified." |
| sfgate.com Friday, May 14, 2004 Updated: 12:07 AM PDT ' I'm guessing that the best way to hail a cab or a bartender in Athens will not be by waving an American flag." Sorensen Capital group He's already got more money than god, but that isn't stopping Steve Young (above, right) from embarking on a second career in business. Gov's Balancing Act Schwarzenegger unveils revised budget containing spending cuts and (as promised) no new taxes. Wedding Date's Still On Same-sex marriage opponents lose bid to halt gay nuptials, scheduled to begin Monday in Massachusetts. Researchers say they've found evidence of impact greater than the one that probably caused the dinosaurs' extinction. Wars' $50 Bil Price Tag "It's a big bill," says Wolfowitz, who estimates the cost of conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. No Plea From Anderson Using a wheelchair, the haggard-looking suspect is arraigned in the murder of Xiana Fairchild. Giants Left Stranded G-men leave 12 men on base, including two in the bottom of the 9th, and drop series to Philly. Sex, Drugs, And Then 5 Deaths Playboy Playmate tells how she got involved with 2 suspects, but left in just the nick of time. Pixar Growth Plan Wins Fans 20-year proposal for Emeryville site gets flak from activists, but city says go for it. |
| latimes.com -> www.latimes.com/ Private Rocket Nears Space By Peter Pae Craft designed by Burt Rutan goes where no private craft has gone before in bid for prize. US Military Lawyers Felt 'Shut Out' of Prison Policy By Ken Silverstein They said civilian political lawyers were deciding how prisoners could be questioned. Governor Opts to Put Off the Pain By Peter Nicholas ANALYSIS: Schwarzenegger's revised plan avoids deep cuts in spending and includes no new taxes. An Editor's Hollywood Ties Pay Off By Claudia Eller, Michael Cieply and Josh Getlin Vanity Fair's Graydon Carter strikes business deals with some people his magazine covers. Tough Outing for Nomo By Ben Bolch He gives up six runs and walks three in shortest outing of the season as Dodgers fall to Cubs, 7-3. US Military Lawyers Felt 'Shut Out' of Prison Policy By Ken Silverstein They said civilian political lawyers were deciding how prisoners could be questioned. Awed, one and all, deep below ground By Vani Rangachar A family visits Carlsbad Caverns National Park to witness what millions of years and sulfuric acid can do. Setting a Modern standard By Cara Mullio and Jennifer M Volland An architect of Case Study Houses, Edward Killingsworth used many of the same principles in his own home -- light, glass, an emphasis on indoor-outdoor living. |