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| 7/8 |
| 2005/11/8-9 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:40483 Activity:nil |
11/7 Dear housing bust expert Swami the Magnificent, my wife and I
really really want to get a house soon. What is the best time
for buyers? end of December? mid January?
\_ Uhm, did you read your own links? The builder they quote in the
second link says he expects housing prices to go up slower. Going
up slower is not the same as dropping. I understand the desperate
desire to own a home but don't fool yourself by selectively
reading articles. That's no way to invest or buy.
\_ http://tinyurl.com/dpd3j (yahoo news)
http://tinyurl.com/acxh2 (yahoo news)
Housing market crash crash crash.
May hard working homeowners stay and keep their abode.
May greedy flippers burn in hell cuz they're brash.
May new buyers find renewed hope for finding a home.
\_ I'm not STM, but from a co-worker who is currently trying to
sell a house, the slow times are when closing dates fall on
the holidays (Thanksgiving, Christmas) since no one wants to
do a big move around those dates. He de-listed his house and
will try again early next year.
\_ Have your friend sell to this guy!
\_ Mind living in Phoenix?
\_ Yes, November and December are slow times. This can be good
in terms of price, but bad in terms of selection. I bought
my house in November and there wasn't much on the market.
When houses started to list in earnest again (spring) the
prices were a lot higher. So, now is a good time.
\_ I'm not sure about that. With less inventory, everybody
goes looking at the same few places. That's what I saw
when I was looking a while back. The inventory was down
but there were still tons of people looking. I don't know
if maybe there are less buyers now though.
\_ Fewer buyers and fewer sellers. The market is more
quiet. In the spring it will pick up again. Prices
then are usually higher than now, despite the
increased supply. It's less a factor in CA, but many
houses don't show well in winter. It's like buying
your car on a rainy day. Factor in holidays and this
is a better time to buy than, say, April.
\_ Be aware of the proposed new tax law which caps mortgage
interest deduction at 420k. If this gets passed, it will
most definitely affect housing price.
\_ Another way to screw the blue states, since obviously anyone
with a 420K house is superrich. |
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| tinyurl.com/dpd3j -> news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051108/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street_morning AP Stocks Dip on Auto, Housing Sector Worries By MICHAEL J MARTINEZ, AP Business Writer Tue Nov 8,11:13 AM ET NEW YORK - Concerns over the housing and automotive sectors pushed stocks lower Tuesday, giving investors an excuse to take profits after four se ssions of gains. click here Disappointing forecasts from auto parts maker Visteon Corp. Despite Wall Street's two-week upswing, the news from Visteon and Toll Br others illustrated the problems that still face the economy and the stoc k market. Rising interest rates and high energy prices will likely keep consumer spending down, prompting the day's selloff. Yet investors' expe ctations of a year-end rally could keep the day's losses limited. "With the Dow and Nasdaq having moved up the way they have, it's only nor mal to see a bit of a pullback from time to time," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke LLC. "But you still have a lo t of seasonal factors to come into play. November through January has hi storically been great for stocks, and I think it'll be almost a self-ful filling prophecy as investors start trickling back into the market." Bonds rose as stocks slipped, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling to 456 percent from 463 percent late Monday. The dollar made gains against other major currencies, while gold prices moved higher in Europe as the rioting in France prompted investors to buy. Yet although oil price s have fallen and remain below $60 per barrel, energy prices remain near historic highs and will continue to pressure consumers. Toll Brothers said softening demand and moderating house prices would res ult in fewer new home deliveries in 2006 and would likely cut into full- year profits. The company also blamed a tougher regulatory environment a nd waning consumer confidence for the lower projections. The struggling auto parts maker said, however, it does not expect to return to profitability in the fourth quarter eve n after a sweeping restructuring with the aid of Ford Motor Co. outlets rose 39 percent in October, the compan y said, with strong growth seen in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Sal es at stores open at least 13 months rose 33 percent despite a number o f store closures due to the hurricane damage along the Gulf Coast. to explore "strategic alternatives," including a possible sale of the company. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 018 percent. In afternoon tr ading, Britain's FTSE 100 was down 009 percent, Germany's DAX index los t 047 percent, and France's CAC-40 dropped 013 percent. In a file photo traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Excha nge, Monday afternoon Oct. Stocks wobbled in and out of positi ve territory Monday as oil prices sank below $60 a barrel and a legal di spute raised questions about Johnson & Johnson's acquisition of Guidant Corp. The informati on contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewr itten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associ ated Press. |
| tinyurl.com/acxh2 -> news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051108/ap_on_bi_ge/toll_brothers_outlook AP Toll Brothers Cuts 2006 Sales Forecast By JOANN LOVIGLIO, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 46 minutes ago PHILADELPHIA - In a sign of trouble for the housing industry, luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. cut its sales forecast for fiscal 2006 Tuesd ay, citing delayed openings for new developments and weakened demand in several markets. click here Toll Brothers' shares tumbled nearly 12 percent in afternoon trading and the news pushed down share prices for many large homebuilders as Wall St reet, already nervous about the health of the housing sector, was rattle d by the news. A national housing sector index, a benchmark maintained by the Philadelph ia Stock Exchange based on share prices for 21 companies in the US hou sing construction market, fell 47 percent in afternoon trading. The strong housing market is widely credited for having supported the eco nomy for some time, but concerns about its sustained health have been in creasing along with the upward creep of mortgage rates. The Philadelphia exchange's index is down 17 percent from its midsummer peak. Rates on 30-year mortgages jave climbed to the highest level in 16 months , and have been above 6 percent for the past month. Toll Brothers, based in Horsham, projected home sales at between 9,500 an d 10,200 homes in fiscal year 2006, down from an earlier target of 10,20 0 to 10,600 homes. "The shortage of selling communities, coupled with some softening of dema nd in a number of markets, negatively impacted our contract results," sa id Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive officer. "It appears we may be entering a period of more moderate home price increases, more typica l of the past decade than the past two years." Houses in new communities were taking longer to go on the market, a delay the company attributed to an increasingly complex regulatory environmen t Roughly one-quarter of Toll Brothers' communities have backlogs at le ast 12 months for houses to be built, and are not available for sale on a regular basis, it added. Toll Brothers also cited lagging consumer confidence stemming from Hurric ane Katrina and rising energy prices. Toll Brothers' concentration in the mid-Atlantic region puts it in a toug her climate than other home builders, said Gregg Schoenleber, an analyst with Deutsche Bank North America. Some 30 percent of Toll Brothers' mar ket is in the mid-Atlantic compared to builders like Pulte Homes with 8 percent, DR Horton Inc. with 9 percent and KB Home with virtually no ne in the region, he said. Municipalities in the region, concerned about the strain of development o n schools and roads, often have more restrictions when approving new dev elopments than places like Colorado and Texas, where such approvals are easier to get, he said. "It's not all a function of (decreasing) demand by any stretch; He said it's not clear whether Toll Brothers' home prices at an average of $633,000 are too high. In some New England markets, for example, " that's considered a teardown," he said. The Brothers on eBay Find the brothers items at low prices. With over 5 million items for sale every day, you'll find all kinds of unique things on eBay - the World's Online Marketplace. The informati on contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewr itten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associ ated Press. |