Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 53496
Berkeley CSUA MOTD
2009/11/4-17 [Transportation/Car] UID:53496 Activity:nil
11/4    I posted the probability question the other day. It was nothing as
        complicated as MTBF or the like. My situation is very similar to
        looking at auto accident rates, asking if the rate of caraccidents
        for any given driver is N%/year, what is the chance that for a
        given day that driver will have a crash? N% or N/365% or something
        else? Thanks again.
        \_ keywords: stats statistics
        \_ You'd have to know something about the distribution of car crashes.
           Presumably they're more likely to happen around holidays and such.
           Few real-world situations have flat distributions.  -tom
           \_ Agreed.  However, if you're willing to assume a flat
              distribution, your probability should be (1-N%)^(1/365)
              neglicting leap years.  -- yuen
                \_ That doesn't seem to make intuitive sense. If N=10%
                   then your calculation says there is a 99.97%
                   probability you WILL crash on any given day.
                   \_ Look at the inverse.
                   \_ Oops.  I forgot the "1 -" part. It should be
                      1 - (1-N%)^(1/365).  -- yuen
                      \_ why are you giving away the fish?
                         Teach a man to FISH!!!
2017/09/20 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular

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