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| 7/9 |
| 2006/1/31-2/2 [Computer/Companies/Google, Industry/Startup] UID:41625 Activity:moderate |
1/31 ObShortGOOG
\_ i imagine anyone who shorted at 400 and saw the stock go back up
to 440 must be breathing a sigh of relief now
\_ Google is a POS stock and the company is (at best)
equivalent to a media company like DIS. However, there's
still a lot of Kool Aid. Way too much for me to bet against
it again. Do you realize GOOG is valued at 3x DIS and even
3x YHOO? The stock is worth at most $130/share.
\_ GOOG trolls VS. housing bubble trolls FITE!!!!!!
\_ Hey, where's tom? I remember him naysaying the naysayers.
Guess he's wrong, again.
\_ Please locate a quote that backs your position. Don't
forget the one where I noted that predicting the stock
price of an immature company like Google was foolish.
They still reported almost 100% revenue growth and
over 70% earnings growth. Anonymous cowardly twink. -tom
\_ IIRC, weren't you the one saying their "forward looking
PE" justified their current and even high stock prices?
\_ I never said anything justified their current price;
I don't own GOOG and I never have. I did point out
that trailing P/E is not a good way to measure the
value of a company that's growing as fast as GOOG
is. The question with GOOG is how long they keep
up their growth rate and where they level off.
Certainly when you release a report that your
revenues are up 100% and earnings are up 70%
year-over-year and your stock price tanks 10%,
people are pricing perfect execution into the stock.
But I think it's nuts to short a freight train,
which has been my point all along. -tom
\_ Why should it be a 'freight train'? Truth is,
I overestimated the intelligence of the average
GOOG shareholder and investor in general. It
fell a little now, but there's no credible
reason for the run-up from IPO.
\_ It *is* a freight train of a company; name
another company that's growing revenues at
100% per year and earnings at 70%. Google
is making all the rules in its space. To
bet against a company like that is folly. -tom
\_ There are companies growing much
faster than that. Check out the technology
Fast 500. There are companies growing at
rates like 60000% over the last 4 years.
GOOG is just a household name and so lots
of people drink the Kool Aid.
of people drink the Kool Aid. GOOG is
#14 on the latest list.
\_ did you happen to notice that Google's
2004 revenue is two orders of magnitude
larger than any of the companies ahead
of it? In fact, the highest-ranked
company that is within one order of
magnitude of Google's revenue is
#134, Leap Wireless (1,542% growth
compared to Google's 16,591%). There
is only one company on the entire list
that has higher revenues than Google,
and that's Cingular, and Cingular's
revenue increase came because they
bought AT+T Wireless. Thank you for
making my point that Google is an
extremely exceptional company. -tom
\_ You are making too much out of
the size of total revenues. If
anything, it shows that continued
growth at these rates is impossible.
GOOG would be exceptional if they
could maintain, but only a Kool Aid
drinker would think they can.
\_ I don't think Google can double
in size yearly indefinitely. But
the fact remains, they are the
*only* company that is anywhere
near their size that is growing
at anywhere near their rate. You
want comparable companies? How
about EBAY, circa 2000? -tom
\_ Why does their size matter?
Only expected growth rate of
profits matters.
\_ Don't be obtuse. Google's
profit also dwarfs all of
the similar companies on
that list, and profits
are still blasting upwards.
-tom
\_ Does GOOG's EPS dwarf
all the others? How
much is a share of
GOOG again?
\_ You are now bordering
on too stupid to argue
with. But my last
post here: of the
public companies
listed ahead of GOOG
in the Fast 500,
FalconStor Software
(FALC) has the highest
profits, at 0.02/share.
Google is earning
over $4/share. Oh,
and did I mention the
$8 billion in cash?
-tom
\_ FALC is expected
to earn 8x that
next year and
a share is not even
$9. Some math
shows GOOG as
having a marginally
better P/E, which
is *bad* for a
company the size
of GOOG. Companies
3x the size of DIS
(market cap)
are not growth
companies. Why do
you feel GOOG is
worth 3x YHOO?
Will GOOG
revolutionize how
stocks are valued
or will a lot
of investors be
screwed in the end?
\_ Go invest in
DIS, see if I
care. -tom
\_ My point is
that GOOG is
equivalent
to DIS, not
that DIS is
great.
\_ DIS's story
has zero
relevance.
-tom
As a large media company like GOOG _/
it is very relevant.
\_ GOOG gross margins: over 50%
DIS gross margins: under 15%
GOOG revenue: 90+% growth year over year
DIS revenue: 5% growth year over year
So, besides the fact that DIS's business is
content and GOOG's is not, there's
the fact that one is growing rapidly and
one is not, and one has large gross
margins and one does not. So, uh, how
is DIS relevant again? -tom
\_ DIS has 6x the revenues that GOOG does.
It is a reasonable upper bound to
what GOOG's revenues might be. GOOG
already has 3x the market cap. GOOG's
margin and growth rate have more to
do with its maturity as a company
and are not really predictive of
where it is headed. So if GOOG
increases revenues by 6x (or even
12x) do you think it should be worth
18-30x DIS? That would make it the
largest company in the world.
\_ I would not use a completely
dissimilar company as a measurement
of anything. Are oranges worth
three times as much as apples?
-tom
\_ Are there any large advertising
companies even remotely close to
google's size? --new to this thread |
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