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| 7/8 |
| 2005/6/27-28 [Computer/Companies/Google] UID:38313 Activity:high 66%like:37321 |
6/27 How's that Google short going?
\_ I think Google buyers have lost their damned minds.
\_ you thought that when it was at 100, and you didn't have
any justification for it then. What is your justification
now? -tom
\_ Same as it was then: overvalued. It was overvalued at
100.
\_ According to what? -tom
\_ Well, P/E of 120 is a bit higher than normal.
\_ Normal compared to what? What about forward P/E?
You can't just look at a number in a column at
http://finance.yahoo.com and conclude that a stock is
overvalued (or undervalued). -tom
\_ So buy some options instead of shorting the stock directly:
Controlled downside as well as upside.
\_ yeah, you can only lose 100% of your investment! -tom
\_ http://www.smartmoney.com/pricecheck/index.cfm?story=worksheet&symbol=GOOG&nav=pc_snaps
\_ Better than losing 10x your investment...
\_ You can avoid this by buying a mix of call and
get options.
\_ Most people should leave the hedges for
professionals. (Certainly people who were planning
to short Google at 100 should.) -tom
\_ Heh, most professionals should leave hedges
to professionals should leave the hedges to
someone else as well. I understand most
hedge funds fail.
\_ http://csua.org/u/ciy -not the GOOG short guy
\_ A few things about a tool like this. It's useful, and
a lot more meaningful than looking at P/E ratio. But
there are a number of subjective assumptions in the
design, which not everyone may agree with, and the numbers
they are plugging in are conjecture at best. Will Google
grow at a 31% average annual rate over the next 5 years?
Right now it's growing at a 100% average annual rate.
If you set the 5-year EPS growth rate to 50%, that
calculator spits out $384 as a price. If you leave
the EPS growth rate at 31% and set the "perpetual"
EPS growth rate to 5% it spits out $305. If you set
the benchmark return to 7% it spits out $340.
In summary: You have to know what all those numbers
mean to use that calculator to come up with a valuation.
-tom
\_ Valid points, but I think it's clear you are a GOOG
shill at this point. I still think I will be right
in the end. I've had arguments with people over
stocks like ENE that I seemed to have lost at the
time, too. GOOG stockholders are a cult at this point.
No one in their right mind would buy that POS at
current valuations. It's (so far) a self-fulfilling
prophecy. In fact, I will put my money where my
mouth is and buy puts on this dog.
\_ I am not a GOOG shill. I do not own GOOG and I
never have. I just am tired of people who clearly
know nothing about investing making pronouncements
\_ "know nothing...making pronouncements"...
to hear those words from tom.
like "GOOG is overvalued at $100", when $100 would
currently mean a forward P/E of $15. Its forward
P/E is lower than Yahoo or EBay (two other stocks
I don't own). And to call it a "POS" is ridiculous;
this is a company that is currently growing
revenues at 100% per year! The Google story is
not about the stock price. -tom |
| 7/8 |
|
| www.smartmoney.com/pricecheck/index.cfm?story=worksheet&symbol=GOOG&nav=pc_snaps Autos Career Journal College Planning Consumer Reports Debt Management Health Care Insurance Life LTC Insurance Real Estate Retirement Tax Guide More... Key Indicators Bond Market Update Short Term Investing Bond Investing Living Yield Curve More... The Market Now ForexTV Futures Retirement CEO Interview Sturm Screen Mossberg Report Subscribe Give a gift Customer Service Media Kit Editorial Calendar Custom Publishing Investing 101 Taking Action Strategic Investing Retirement/401 College Planning Short-Term Investing Debt Management Please enable javascript to properly view the menu. Send Us Your Comments Send Us Your Comments HOW MUCH is that stock you're thinking about buying really worth? Our Pri ce Check Calculator can help you estimate a fair price to pay for a stoc k based on three main things: the company's earnings, the rate at which those earnings are projected to grow and the stock's volatility. We'll fill in the rest of t he fields for you with assumptions that you can accept or change. Some a re straightforward, like a company's earnings per share, its beta, the b enchmark return and the risk-free rate an investor could earn elsewhere. The projected earnings growth rate we provi de, for example, is taken from analyst estimates. You might choose to be more conservative or more aggressive in your assumptions. Likewise, you might want to assume that a company will increase its earnings at this rate for a longer or shorter time period than we've indicated. To view our interactive tools properly, you need to be using a Java-enab led browser (Microsoft Internet Explorer v 3 or above, or Netscape v 3 or above), preferably on a Windows 95 and higher machine. If this configuration matches yours, check to make sure Java and Javascr ipt are enabled in your browser options. If the configuration described is not available, please download and install the Java plug-in. Get Java Plug-in Internet Explorer 5x & 6x: * Select Tools from your menu bar * Select Internet Options, then the Security tab. Internet Explorer 4x: * Select View from your menu bar * Select Internet Options, then the Security tab. Internet Explorer 3x: * Select View from your menu bar * Select Options, then select the Security tab. Netscape 30: * Select Options from your menu bar * Select Network Preferences, then select LANGUAGES. Use our Price Check Calculator as part of the broader research you perfor m before buying a stock. And run a few different valuation scenarios for each company you look at, to see what its shares might be worth if it e arns more or less than Wall Street is anticipating. Our Price Check Calculator, keep in mind, isn't meant to give you our tak e, or analysts' take, on what a stock is worth. Use it as a quick and co nvenient way to estimate stock values based on your own assumptions. |
| csua.org/u/ciy -> www.smartmoney.com/pricecheck/index.cfm?story=worksheet&symbol=GOOG&nav=pc_snaps Autos Career Journal College Planning Consumer Reports Debt Management Health Care Insurance Life LTC Insurance Real Estate Retirement Tax Guide More... Key Indicators Bond Market Update Short Term Investing Bond Investing Living Yield Curve More... The Market Now ForexTV Futures Retirement CEO Interview Sturm Screen Mossberg Report Subscribe Give a gift Customer Service Media Kit Editorial Calendar Custom Publishing Investing 101 Taking Action Strategic Investing Retirement/401 College Planning Short-Term Investing Debt Management Please enable javascript to properly view the menu. Send Us Your Comments Send Us Your Comments HOW MUCH is that stock you're thinking about buying really worth? Our Pri ce Check Calculator can help you estimate a fair price to pay for a stoc k based on three main things: the company's earnings, the rate at which those earnings are projected to grow and the stock's volatility. We'll fill in the rest of t he fields for you with assumptions that you can accept or change. Some a re straightforward, like a company's earnings per share, its beta, the b enchmark return and the risk-free rate an investor could earn elsewhere. The projected earnings growth rate we provi de, for example, is taken from analyst estimates. You might choose to be more conservative or more aggressive in your assumptions. Likewise, you might want to assume that a company will increase its earnings at this rate for a longer or shorter time period than we've indicated. To view our interactive tools properly, you need to be using a Java-enab led browser (Microsoft Internet Explorer v 3 or above, or Netscape v 3 or above), preferably on a Windows 95 and higher machine. If this configuration matches yours, check to make sure Java and Javascr ipt are enabled in your browser options. If the configuration described is not available, please download and install the Java plug-in. Get Java Plug-in Internet Explorer 5x & 6x: * Select Tools from your menu bar * Select Internet Options, then the Security tab. Internet Explorer 4x: * Select View from your menu bar * Select Internet Options, then the Security tab. Internet Explorer 3x: * Select View from your menu bar * Select Options, then select the Security tab. Netscape 30: * Select Options from your menu bar * Select Network Preferences, then select LANGUAGES. Use our Price Check Calculator as part of the broader research you perfor m before buying a stock. And run a few different valuation scenarios for each company you look at, to see what its shares might be worth if it e arns more or less than Wall Street is anticipating. Our Price Check Calculator, keep in mind, isn't meant to give you our tak e, or analysts' take, on what a stock is worth. Use it as a quick and co nvenient way to estimate stock values based on your own assumptions. |
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