Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 34033
Berkeley CSUA MOTD
2019/05/21 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular

2004/10/11 [ERROR, uid:34033, category id '18005#19.7463' has no name! , ] UID:34033 Activity:high
10/11 is down or maybe just reeeeaaaalllly slow.
        What other sites are people using that keep daily updated vote maps?
        \_ works for me.
           \_ It works, then it doesn't, then it works but I don't get
              images....  Anyway, I'd still like to know what other
              sites people are using for comparison and curiosity.  Thanks.
        \_ Just curious why anyone cares? There's only one 'poll' that is
           going to matter. Cast your vote and tune in then to find out.
           Are you all campaign strategists now?
           \_ If/when Dubya wins, people want to know the reason why, or
              at least how it went down.  Duh.  Leave them and most of America
              alone.  And yes, they might be assisting with different campaigns
              as they get older.
           \_ I am deciding where to focus my GOTV effort. I am going to take
              the week before the election off from work and travel to
              a swing state. I need to pick one that is close. I am
              co-ordinating with a group of 20 people on this choice,
              so it is kind of cumbersome.
                \_ I'm going to Vega$ for this purpose, closest swing
                   state I can think of. - danh
              \_ Why not ask your political party where they need your help?
                 It seems silly to track this for anything other than
                 entertainment and if this is entertaining then you must
                 be really bored. Move to DC. They find this fun there.
                 \_ You must not be a Democrat. "I do not belong to any
                    organized party, I am a Democrat." In case you haven't
                    noticed, the whole country is paying attention to
                    politics this month, not just the inside the beltway
                    \_ "Politics" is not pseudo-scientific polls conducted
                       by people with an agenda or, at best, a poor
                       understanding of statistics.
                 \_ Why not get a loudspeaker? It seems silly to criticize
                    people interested in poll numbers, for anything other than
                    entertainment and if this is entertaining then you must
                    be really bored. Move out of yermom's house. Many people
                    find it fun there.
                 \_ Yeah, following baseball statistics is much more exciting
                    and relelvant to my life. Not.
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Wednesday to move Ohio fro m Leaning Bush to a Toss Up and Pennsylvania from Toss Up to Leaning Ker ry. There is no question that the situation for Senator Kerry has improved dr amatically in the last week. From an Electoral Vote standpoint, however, he is still facing an uphill battle. earlier analysis suggesting that the race basically boils down to Florida and Ohio stands. However, it looks as if the aftermath of the h urricanes may have given President Bush a decisive edge there, so in rea lity it is now all about Ohio. On balance, President Bush still holds the better Electoral hand because the evidence is massing that he has successfully moved Wisconsin into hi s column. Because of the very real potential to win Wisconsin, Bush can now lose Ohio and still have a reasonable chance for victory. The Ohio/Wisconsin swap garners Kerry 10 Electoral Votes and, using the 2 000 results as a template taking into account reapportionment, that woul d leave Kerry the winner, 270-268. Because the US House of Representati ves splits all ties in the Electoral College, Bush likely only needs 269 votes to be reelected. Geography more than anything else gives Kerry the slight advantage in New Hampshire which moves the Electoral tally to Kerry 274 - Bush 264. So i f Bush does lose Ohio, but brings in Wisconsin, he will have to swing FI VE Electoral Votes to win. President Bush has four different scenarios through which he could gain t hese votes. Gallup shows Bush up 3 while the Albuquerque Journal has Kerry ahead by 3 The next target is New Hampshire's 4 Electoral Votes and the 1 Electoral Vote available if the President can carry Maine's 2nd Congressional dist rict. Bush would probably pick up 1 Electoral Vote by winnin g CD2. The last shot for the President to grab those needed 5 EV's comes from Or egon, though in all likelihood if President Bush ends up in a position w here he needs Oregon's Electoral Votes to get reelected, it probably won 't happen. All of these different options depend on the President holding on to the rest of his 2000 states, which in this type of election scenario seems l ikely, though Nevada could be the one state where Kerry could steal back those 5 Electoral Votes. Bush leading by 4 Bottom line: Kerry has effectively used the first debate to get himself b ack in the game, but he continues to remain at a structural disadvantage in the Electoral College. The quartet of Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico could be where this election is decided. If Bush does have a hold on Wisconsin, then even if Senator Kerry wins Ohio, he will also have t o win both Iowa and New Mexico to deny Bush four more years. Oregon | 9/19-9/27 453 480 - Kerry +27 Colorado | 10/3-10/7 503 447 10 Bush +56 Maine | 9/10 - 10/5 445 470 30 Kerry +25 Washington | 9/17-10/4 415 518 20 Kerry +103 New Jersey | 10/1-10/6 430 490 20 Kerry +60 2000 Results in 2004 EV's: After reapportionment, keeping the states the same as 2000 gives Bush 278 electoral votes and Kerry 260 electoral vote s 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win. So, in order to win Kerry has to flip 10 Electoral Votes and hold all of the Gore states. If Kerry does not win either FL or OH, he has very little chance of becoming President. Without one of these two states Kerry can get to 268/269 by winning NH an d NV, but to get over 270 he will have to carry either WV or MO It is h ard to imagine Kerry losing OH, but winning MO or WV. Bush needs to win both FL-27 and OH-20, but if he were to lose one of the two he has a small chance of picking up the lost EV's by winning some c ombination of either WI-10, NM-5, MN-10, IA-7 and OR-7 (and also denying Kerry pickups in NV and NH).
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And the extra 75,000 that found jobs in March and April that weren't previously recorded, I'm happy for you guys, too. In fact, I'm happy for the 142 million of you who have found jobs since last August. One more thing, to those who've started or maintained small businesses of their own over the last 3 1/2 years and to the multitudes hired by such businesses, I'm waiting with great anticipation for your companies to grow big enough to be counted in the employment figures as well. All told, the economy has added 12 million reported jobs in 5 months so far this year. He quotes John Kerry's master plan for creating jobs, does some clever computing with very simple math, and concludes that a vote for Kerry is a vote to slow down current job growth. For a number cruncher like myself, that's the kind of illustrative calculating I love! Update: For some reason, Michael's site seems to have gone down very shortly after I posted this entry. If you divide the 48 months that make up a four-year term into 10 million, the result is 208,333 per month. That's 40,000 per month less than the economy has been creating since the first of this year. Link to this post | Comments closed June 3, 2004 Polling drought There haven't been any national polls released in the past week. By early next week, I expect we'll see several new polls. If we do, you can rest assured The Blogging Caesar will be here to quench your thirst with a new Election Projection update. Update: Over the last two days, a lot of state polls have been released with some interesting numbers. National polls are still scarce with only ARG publishing a new one. I have taken a look at the state polls and determined that the electoral vote totals projected here would remain the same with those polls included. So, I'm going to continue to wait for some more national polls to be released before updating. Link to this post | Comments closed May 29, 2004 Election Projection resources down by one I have some bad news to report. One of my main resources for polling data has begun a subscription format. In fact, they just finished a fund raiser to help with the costs of running the site over there. Besides extensive polling data, they provide a wonderful repository of links to political articles each and every day. They are listed among my favorite links, and I encourage my readers to go visit and help them out with a donation. Update: A very generous reader has donated $75 for the expressed purpose of purchasing a six-month subscription to DC's website. Update2: Well, I'm not having much success getting a subscription from Mr Sachs at DC's Political Report. I'm not inclined to offer my credit card number unless I'm on a secure site. I'd really rather pay by PayPal, anyway, but I can't figure out how to get that to work either. I sent an email asking for information but have heard no reply. Link to this post | Comments closed EDICT #6: Ralph Nader will get less than 15 million votes in November Since Nader announced the beginning of this year's senseless run for the White House, I've held the opinion that he won't be nearly the factor he was last time. In 2000, he received 2,883,105 votes, or 273% of the total. The Blogging Caesar hereby decrees that Nader's vote count this year will not top 1,500,000. Many lefties who voted for him then will not want to take part in the demise of another one of their own. Regardless of what he and many conservatives say, if Ralph Nader were not on the ballot in 2000, Al Gore would be in the White House today. Link to this post | Comments closed May 26, 2004 Polling data update Is this the end? There's plenty of time for George Dubya to come roaring back. However, I'm convinced next Tuesday, were it election day, would be a very sad one for Bushies like me. It's obvious that Bush is currently losing the race for White House version 2005. Senator Kerry, the off-again, on-again Democratic nominee, has acquired a good bit of breathing room in his quest to unseat President Bush. Looking deeper into the data, we see that the President's increasingly negative job approval numbers are beginning to be reflected in the latest round of presidential preference polls. For the first time this year, the projection shows Kerry beating Bush head-to-head. In fact, I believe we're seeing how insignificant his alleged candidacy will be this year. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. This update, for the second week in a row, represents his largest popular vote deficit to date. Link to this post | Comments closed May 25, 2004 Busy, busy, busy Just a quick note to let everyone know I'm still here. Work demands and other obligations are completely crowding out my blogging and projecting. As a result, this week's projection is going to be delayed for a few days. Don't fret, though, the election is still months away, and I'm sure once things settle down for me (and they will very soon), I'll be back to blogging my heart out! In the meantime, the projection will continue to be refreshed. I look forward to getting back to my usual weekly updates. There's been an unacceptable increase in profanity on the board. I'll reinstate it with the next update for as long as people can keep the profanity out of the discussions. Bad news in Iraq and higher gas prices at home are completely overshadowing the ecomony's stunning performance over the last couple months. That substantial margin translates to a 327-211 lead in electoral votes. Since my last update, Missouri and Nevada have flown the coop, bringing to five the number of states won by Bush in 2000 that are projected to go into Kerry's column this year. Moreover, the situation would be even worse without the influence of state polling data. Bush retains Arizona and West Virginia thanks to those polls. However, I must note that in 1988, Vice President Bush Sr. trailed Michael Dukakis by 17% much later in the election season and came back to win going away. I know the historical precedent for incumbents would foretell a dismal election for this Mr Bush, but I believe we are in a unique circumstance this year. If the situation in Iraq improves by mid-summer, then the stellar economy will take center stage. Once that happens, the referendum on his Presidency will take a decidedly positive turn. So, I'm going to stand by my predictions for a little while longer. Things can change quickly and dramatically in political campaigns. I do realize that the situation in Iraq might not turn out so well. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. This update represents his largest popular vote deficit yet. Link to this post | Comments closed May 8, 2004 Polling data update Uh oh! The President's numbers have taken a definite hit from the Iraqi prisoner abuse story. Election Projection shows Senator Kerry with a substantial lead. The electoral vote picture is even rosier for Mr Kerry where he now has a 311-227 advantage. Both Florida and Ohio have switched sides since the last update and are now colored blue. We'll have to see if this story runs it's course without permanently damaging Bush. If it does, then the economy's awesome performance lately should start to bolster his standing with the voting public. If not, Kerry will be in much better shape going into the conventions than I believed he would be. I'm not yet conceding that Kerry has a chance to win, though. He'll just put up a better fight if the situation in Iraq continues to weaken President Bush. I'll hit the major points here: * State polls are used for all 50 states where available and only if they are recent. I've also added a couple of enhancements that I hope you'll enjoy. This summary provides a quick reference for finding out which states are solidly out of play and which ones are in danger of flipping sides. "Detailed Data" page which reveals all the numbers as I calculate them. This is a great resource for number junkies like me and for those who want to make sure I'm on my p's and q's! So, after hours and hours of data processing using the new formula, we're right back where we ended up almost 4 years ago! Without state polls included, Kerry would...
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News electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (109) electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (96) electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (75) electoral college tied Exactly tied (20) electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (56) electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (40) electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (142) Needed to win: 270 Aug. Enhancements News from the Votemaster We have three new polls today, including all-important Florida. Zogby's poll of Florida posted yesterday had Kerry 1% ahead. A Gallup poll taken a day later has Bush 2% ahead, so we now award Florida to Bush for the moment. Both of these polls are within the MoE so the state is still a statistical tie. The Gallup poll was based on 1002 people, so the 3% change was based on 30 additional Bush supporters in Gallup's sample compared to Zogby's. That's tiny, yet the electoral college gap narrowed today by 54 votes. We may have to wait until all the votes are counted--several times-- before we know. Missouri and Colorado are currently tied but suppose Bush squeaks through in both and the Colorado referendum fails. Then Bush picks up 20 votes in the electoral college and the score would be Kerry 280, Bush 258. In that scenario, Bush has won the three critical states: Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, and still lost the election. That's why battles are raging in some of the smaller states, like Nevada, New Mexico, and West Virginia. I don't believe that for a second, just as I am not convinced that Kerry is leading in Tennesse or that Colorado is a tie. Remember even with the impeccable methodology and no monkey business, about 5% of the time you get a sample mean that is more than two standard deviations from the true mean just due to bad luck. This site has far more about the election than just the map.