www.electionprojection.com
And the extra 75,000 that found jobs in March and April that weren't previously recorded, I'm happy for you guys, too. In fact, I'm happy for the 142 million of you who have found jobs since last August. One more thing, to those who've started or maintained small businesses of their own over the last 3 1/2 years and to the multitudes hired by such businesses, I'm waiting with great anticipation for your companies to grow big enough to be counted in the employment figures as well. All told, the economy has added 12 million reported jobs in 5 months so far this year.
He quotes John Kerry's master plan for creating jobs, does some clever computing with very simple math, and concludes that a vote for Kerry is a vote to slow down current job growth. For a number cruncher like myself, that's the kind of illustrative calculating I love! Update: For some reason, Michael's site seems to have gone down very shortly after I posted this entry.
If you divide the 48 months that make up a four-year term into 10 million, the result is 208,333 per month. That's 40,000 per month less than the economy has been creating since the first of this year.
Link to this post | Comments closed June 3, 2004 Polling drought There haven't been any national polls released in the past week. By early next week, I expect we'll see several new polls. If we do, you can rest assured The Blogging Caesar will be here to quench your thirst with a new Election Projection update. Update: Over the last two days, a lot of state polls have been released with some interesting numbers. National polls are still scarce with only ARG publishing a new one. I have taken a look at the state polls and determined that the electoral vote totals projected here would remain the same with those polls included. So, I'm going to continue to wait for some more national polls to be released before updating.
Link to this post | Comments closed May 29, 2004 Election Projection resources down by one I have some bad news to report. One of my main resources for polling data has begun a subscription format.
In fact, they just finished a fund raiser to help with the costs of running the site over there. Besides extensive polling data, they provide a wonderful repository of links to political articles each and every day. They are listed among my favorite links, and I encourage my readers to go visit and help them out with a donation. Update: A very generous reader has donated $75 for the expressed purpose of purchasing a six-month subscription to DC's website. Update2: Well, I'm not having much success getting a subscription from Mr Sachs at DC's Political Report. I'm not inclined to offer my credit card number unless I'm on a secure site. I'd really rather pay by PayPal, anyway, but I can't figure out how to get that to work either. I sent an email asking for information but have heard no reply.
Link to this post | Comments closed EDICT #6: Ralph Nader will get less than 15 million votes in November Since Nader announced the beginning of this year's senseless run for the White House, I've held the opinion that he won't be nearly the factor he was last time. In 2000, he received 2,883,105 votes, or 273% of the total. The Blogging Caesar hereby decrees that Nader's vote count this year will not top 1,500,000. Many lefties who voted for him then will not want to take part in the demise of another one of their own. Regardless of what he and many conservatives say, if Ralph Nader were not on the ballot in 2000, Al Gore would be in the White House today.
Link to this post | Comments closed May 26, 2004 Polling data update Is this the end? There's plenty of time for George Dubya to come roaring back. However, I'm convinced next Tuesday, were it election day, would be a very sad one for Bushies like me. It's obvious that Bush is currently losing the race for White House version 2005.
Senator Kerry, the off-again, on-again Democratic nominee, has acquired a good bit of breathing room in his quest to unseat President Bush. Looking deeper into the data, we see that the President's increasingly negative job approval numbers are beginning to be reflected in the latest round of presidential preference polls. For the first time this year, the projection shows Kerry beating Bush head-to-head. In fact, I believe we're seeing how insignificant his alleged candidacy will be this year. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. This update, for the second week in a row, represents his largest popular vote deficit to date.
Link to this post | Comments closed May 25, 2004 Busy, busy, busy Just a quick note to let everyone know I'm still here. Work demands and other obligations are completely crowding out my blogging and projecting. As a result, this week's projection is going to be delayed for a few days. Don't fret, though, the election is still months away, and I'm sure once things settle down for me (and they will very soon), I'll be back to blogging my heart out! In the meantime, the projection will continue to be refreshed. I look forward to getting back to my usual weekly updates. There's been an unacceptable increase in profanity on the board. I'll reinstate it with the next update for as long as people can keep the profanity out of the discussions.
Bad news in Iraq and higher gas prices at home are completely overshadowing the ecomony's stunning performance over the last couple months. That substantial margin translates to a 327-211 lead in electoral votes. Since my last update, Missouri and Nevada have flown the coop, bringing to five the number of states won by Bush in 2000 that are projected to go into Kerry's column this year. Moreover, the situation would be even worse without the influence of state polling data. Bush retains Arizona and West Virginia thanks to those polls.
However, I must note that in 1988, Vice President Bush Sr. trailed Michael Dukakis by 17% much later in the election season and came back to win going away. I know the historical precedent for incumbents would foretell a dismal election for this Mr Bush, but I believe we are in a unique circumstance this year. If the situation in Iraq improves by mid-summer, then the stellar economy will take center stage. Once that happens, the referendum on his Presidency will take a decidedly positive turn. So, I'm going to stand by my predictions for a little while longer. Things can change quickly and dramatically in political campaigns. I do realize that the situation in Iraq might not turn out so well. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. This update represents his largest popular vote deficit yet.
Link to this post | Comments closed May 8, 2004 Polling data update Uh oh! The President's numbers have taken a definite hit from the Iraqi prisoner abuse story.
Election Projection shows Senator Kerry with a substantial lead. The electoral vote picture is even rosier for Mr Kerry where he now has a 311-227 advantage. Both Florida and Ohio have switched sides since the last update and are now colored blue. We'll have to see if this story runs it's course without permanently damaging Bush. If it does, then the economy's awesome performance lately should start to bolster his standing with the voting public. If not, Kerry will be in much better shape going into the conventions than I believed he would be. I'm not yet conceding that Kerry has a chance to win, though. He'll just put up a better fight if the situation in Iraq continues to weaken President Bush.
I'll hit the major points here: * State polls are used for all 50 states where available and only if they are recent. I've also added a couple of enhancements that I hope you'll enjoy. This summary provides a quick reference for finding out which states are solidly out of play and which ones are in danger of flipping sides.
"Detailed Data" page which reveals all the numbers as I calculate them. This is a great resource for number junkies like me and for those who want to make sure I'm on my p's and q's! So, after hours and hours of data processing using the new formula, we're right back where we ended up almost 4 years ago! Without state polls included, Kerry would...
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