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Science News WASHINGTON (May 18) - Global warming isn't to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, concludes a study by a prominent federal scientist whose position has shifted on the subject. Not only that, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday. Photo Gallery Vincent Laforet, Pool / Getty Images Are There Benefits To Global Warming? However, a new study shows that warmer temperatures may actually reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes. Click through the photos to see other positive effects of global warming. In the past, Knutson has raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms. His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic. Ever since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, hurricanes have often been seen as a symbol of global warming's wrath. Many climate change experts have tied the rise of hurricanes in recent years to global warming and hotter waters that fuel them. Another group of experts, those who study hurricanes and who are more often skeptical about global warming, say there is no link. They attribute the recent increase to a natural multi-decade cycle. What makes this study different is Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, NJ He has warned about the harmful effects of climate change and has even complained in the past about being censored by the Bush administration on past studies on the dangers of global warming. He said his new study, based on a computer model, argues "against the notion that we've already seen a really dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane activity resulting from greenhouse warming." Photo Gallery John McConnico, AP Effects of Global Warming 1 of 18 A record amount of Greenland's ice sheet melted this summer -- 19 billion tons more than the previous high mark. And for the first time on record, the Northwest Passage was open to navigation. The study, published online Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience, predicts that by the end of the century the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall by 18 percent. The number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States and its neighbors - anywhere east of Puerto Rico - will drop by 30 percent because of wind factors. The biggest storms - those with winds of more than 110 mph - would only decrease in frequency by 8 percent. Tropical storms, those with winds between 39 and 73 mph, would decrease by 27 percent. His computer model also forecasts that hurricanes and tropical storms will be wetter and fiercer. Rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane should jump by 37 percent and wind strength should increase by about 2 percent, Knutson's study says. And Knutson said this study significantly underestimates the increase in wind strength. MIT hurricane meteorologist Kerry Emanuel, while praising Knutson as a scientist, called his conclusion "demonstrably wrong" based on a computer model that doesn't look properly at storms. Photo Gallery NASA Historic Hurricanes 1 of 12 Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was the most intense hurricane ever. It measured 882 millibars, the lowest pressure on record. There were 27 named Atlantic storms that year, also a record. Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist, said Knutson's computer model is poor at assessing tropical weather and "fail to replicate storms with any kind of fidelity." Knutson acknowledges weaknesses in his computer model and said it primarily gives a coarse overview, not an accurate picture on individual storms and storm strength. He said the latest model doesn't produce storms surpassing 112 mph. But NOAA hurricane meteorologist Chris Landsea, who wasn't part of this study, praised Knutson's work as "very consistent with what's being said all along." "I think global warming is a big concern, but when it comes to hurricanes the evidence for changes is pretty darn tiny," Landsea said. Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic and a Colorado State University forecast predicts about a 50 percent more active than normal storm season this year. On average, about five hurricanes hit the United States every three years. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
I still don't see how the whole global warming thing can suddenly be good all of a sudden. And I don't see enough evidence for the whole hurricane theory either. I thought warm water was supposed to make them stronger. And sure, maybe global warming may somewhat help the world prosper economically, but I don't think it will help by much. Some of the points are just plain stupid, like the point explained in the picture of the people clearing the snow off their roof. If the weather hasn't heated up much, and it still snows where they live, how would they save money on their heating bill anyways? I just think a lot of the "good" sides of global warming still don't outweigh the fact that global warming is bad for animals with the changing weather, and other matters like that.
All we'd have to do do is say that we'd start extensive drilling and Oil would come right down where it should be.... Supply is keeping up with demand with capacity to spare. Secondly, domestic reserves ARE limited and domestic production will continue to decline whether we maintain moratoria on certain areas or not. The US couldn't produce enough more oil to have a significant impact on global pricing. Plus, domestic sources are primarily unconventional and expensive to produce. It is much cheaper to buy foreign oil than it would be produce our own.
As often as these scientist change their minds, I think it prudent to ignore them. Does anyone else notice that they really don't know what they are talking about.
agater07 05:08:35 PM May 19 2008 As for the CO2 admissions what about all the spaceships going into space, they are using more fuel and producing much more carbon than all the people on the earth. As a matter of fact, more CO2 is emitted by a cross-Atlantic flight than a manned rocket going into outer space.
Global warming continues to be a serious problem, whether it increases hurricanes or not. The poles are melting away at an alarming rate, threatening polar bears in the north and penguins in the south. What irritates me is the hotter weather in the United States and especially in California. Record heat wave after record heat wave and some people remain in denial about global warming. And unless we wake up and take action, it is only going to get worse.
do you know how retarded it sounds when you guys say OMG global warming is teh conspiracy by the liberal media to raise tax prices. your so lazy, you wont take resposiblilty for your actions. Hears how it works, humans have been pushing out co2 into the atmosphere seincs the 1900s and after a while the co2 starts to break through the atmosphere. With a weakened atmosphere more heat from the sum come through and heats the water than mealts the ice. Co2 levels are way higher than they ever were, and they have proof just look at the ice core samples from antartica, they show the Co2 levels for the last several hundred thousand years Still waiting on your XBOX to reset?
gas is just like coca cola if the price is to high dont buy it they will ajust it to a market price. thats capitialism anyone against that is a commie Did you know that your tax dollars go to coca cola through the military industrial complex?
A 1980 painting by Lucien Freud is seen through a sculpture on display at Christie's auction house in London Monday. Kirsty Wigglesworth, AP A 1980 painting by Lucien Freud is seen through a sculpture at Christie's auction house in London Monday.
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