Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 44737
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2006/10/9-10 [Science/Disaster] UID:44737 Activity:nil
10/9    Jane's on NK test:
        http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jdw/jdw061009_2_n.shtml
        'The figure of .55 kT, however, seems too low given the 4.2 register
        on the Richter scale. This could suggest - depending upon the
        geological make-up of the test site - a yield of 2-12 kT. If,
        however, the lower yield is correct, it would suggest that the test
        had been a "pre- or post-detonation" event (ie a failure), as it had
        been anticipated that North Korea's first nuclear test would have a
        significantly higher yield."
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www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jdw/jdw061009_2_n.shtml
The difference in the reports is due to the fact that the USGS assessment, being somewhat later, was able to incorporate a larger number of sensor reports in its preparation. This places the site approximately 42 km northwest of Kilchu, in the province of North Hamgyong, on the remote slopes of Mant'ap-san Mountain. This coincides with reports that first appeared during 2005 of suspicious tunnelling and construction activities in the area. Subsequent reports during the past month indicate that the North Koreans had excavated a 700 m-long horizontal tunnel under Mant'ap-san. This could suggest - depending upon the geological make-up of the test site - a yield of 2-12 kT. If, however, the lower yield is correct, it would suggest that the test had been a "pre- or post-detonation" event (ie a failure), as it had been anticipated that North Korea's first nuclear test would have a significantly higher yield.