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GO 25 ESPN MALL 26 TeamStore 27 ESPN Auctions SPORT SECTIONS 28 M Col. BB | 29 Tourney 30 Scores 31 NBA 32 Scores 33 NHL 34 Scores 35 MLB 36 Scores | 37 GameCast 38 NFL | 39 NFL Draft 40 Scores 41 W Col. BB 42 Scores 43 Golf 44 Scores 45 Tennis 46 Scores 47 Col. Cross onto the eclectic campus of the University of California. Make your way past dozens of tables set up by student organizations in their fall recruiting mode. Eventually you will come upon Evans Hall, a hulking, utterly charmless stack of concrete. Up in a fifth floor classroom, David Romer, a Cal-Berkeley professor of economics, writes a series of hieroglyphs on the board -- with a Sharpie, which, unlike a certain wide receiver from across the Bay, he did not pull from his khaki sock: Ei Di(gt) Vi = Pgt + Bgt Ei Di(gt+1) Vi - egt This, in the unimpeachable terms of the Bellman Equation, is the definitive proof that NFL head coaches should go for it more on fourth down. Bill Belichick Bill Belichick is one of several NFL head coaches who has studied David Romer's work. In the button-down world of the NFL -- the last bastion of fascism, according to one enlightened former player -- a conservative approach is almost mandatory. Fourth down, the ultimate push-comes-to-shove, all-or-nothing moment in football, is not generally judged to be worth the gamble. Not only are points often at stake -- passing on a three-point field goal is sacrilege in Coaching 101 -- but there is also the momentous matter of field position, roughly 40 yards worth. Coaches are terminally terrified of risking that stretch of precious real estate. But the risk, Romer insists, is almost always worth the potential reward. Fassel turned a sheet with the equation on it sideways, then upside down in a humorous attempt to absorb its subtleties. The difficulty, according to Mariucci, is maintaining a level head when everyone in the stadium wants you to go for it. So you've got to block them out and you've got to make sense of it all. Maybe it's because Belichick graduated from Wesleyan University with a bachelor's degree in economics. Romer applied the Bellman Equation, which is used in economics and math to help simplify dynamic, long-term problems into the immediate payoff and the future ramifications of the situation. Based on statistics from actual NFL games from 1998 through 2000, Romer assigned a value to having the ball first-and-10 on each of the yard lines of the football field in terms of points scored. Since teams rarely go for it on fourth down -- last year, the league's 31 teams went for it a collective 468 times, an average of less than once per game -- Romer decided it was not a representative sample. He elected instead to use third-down statistics in assessing probability. In addition, he used only first-quarter statistics because, generally speaking, score and time left did not influence decisions that early in a game. The findings of Romer's analysis: A team facing fourth-and-goal within five yards of the end zone is better off, on average, trying for a touchdown. At midfield, on average, there is an argument to go for any fourth down within five yards of a first down. Even on its own 10-yard-line -- 90 yards from the end zone -- a team within three yards of a first down is marginally better off, on average, going for it. Of the 1,575 fourth downs in the sample where the analysis implied that teams were, on average, better off kicking, teams went for it only seven times. However, on the 1,100 fourth downs where the analysis implied that teams were, on average, better off going for it, they kicked 992 times. Translated, in the 1,100 instances where teams had more to gain in Romer's estimation by going for it, they did so only 108 times, or less than 10 percent. The primary objection to the concept revolves around field position. A punt will generally net around 40 yards, and that's a solid number coaches feel is worth that decision not to gamble. There's so much more involved with the game than just sitting there, looking at the numbers and saying, 'OK, these are my percentages, then I'm going to do it this way,' because that one time it doesn't work could cost your team a football game, and that's the thing a head coach has to live with, not the professor. But Romer -- a man as serious as an economist can be -- doesnt' pretend to offer an infallible system, just a guideline. Nineteen of the league's 32 teams are at 50 percent or better, and 23 teams have a better conversion rate on fourth down than third down. As you might expect, teams with their backs against the wall tend to go for it more often. The Washington Redskins are second with 11 attempts on fourth down and five conversions, while Minnesota (5-for-10) is next. The quality of a team has a lot to do with its success rate. Under head coach Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville has gone for it 10 times and made seven. Philadelphia's Andy Reid has already made six of nine tries. Only two AFC teams went for it more than Belichick's Patriots a year ago. This year, the Patriots have already converted four of seven tries. What it really comes down to, Belichick said, is confidence. Confidence that your offense can get that yard or two, confidence that your defense can hold the opponent if the offense fails. How good of a short-yardage or goal-line team is your opponent? When you add those two up and you're real good and you don't think the other team is that proficient at it, that's one thing. Can you win that matchup and get the yard or yards you need to? Kurt Warner's pass was incomplete and the Rams ended up losing their opener 23-16. Despite the absence of starting left guard Tom Nutten, the Rams ran Marshall Faulk straight up the middle and he was stuffed for no gain before fumbling. The Rams did get the ball back but ended up losing 26-21. Week 5 -- Giants at Cowboys: Trailing 21-17 and facing fourth-and-nine from the Giants 48 with 2:03 left in the game, Cowboys coach Dave Campo elected to punt. I didn't expect them to put it on their defense like that,'' Giants defensive end Michael Strahan said. Week 8 -- Bengals at Titans: There was no controversial decision involved here, but this fourth down decided the game. Trailing 30-24 with 1:08 left and facing fourth-and-one with a yard to go for a touchdown, Corey Dillon had a clear path to the end zone but tripped on pulling guard Matt O'Dwyer, coming up short as the Bengals remained winless. Week 8 -- Bills at Lions: Trailing 24-17 and facing fourth-and-inches at the Buffalo 20 with 1:52 left in the game, Lions running back James Stewart was stuffed for no gain. The Bills took over, converted a first down and ran out the clock. Already this season, there have been some classic fourth-down decisions. When the Broncos decided to try a long 63 Jason Elam field goal on Monday Night Football, Ravens cornerback 64 Chris McAlister returned the miss 107 yards for a touchdown and an NFL record. Remember when Rams coach Mike Martz was looking at a field goal to tie a game in Week 1 against the Broncos and elected (unsuccessfully) to go for the touchdown? Caught in the nether region between the Patriots' 30- and 40-yard lines, the Packers went for it on fouth-and-three. The Tennessee Titans, up by only two points, went for it on fourth-and-goal at the Jacksonville 1. We think that trial and error, survival of the fittest, imitation is going to cause people to get toward optimizing behavior. So the question is, why doesn't it seem to be working here? And what it looks like is there's a natural human tendency, it may be a genetic one, to worry about the worse case. If you're teaching your kid about crossing the street or you're hunting a saber-tooth tiger a few thousand years ago, the worst case is really something terrible. There's a medium-sized cost to failure and there's a medium-sized reward to success -- mainly, you get to keep the ball and the drive keeps going. He has made the playoffs seven of his first 10 seasons and looks like a good bet for eight of 11. He didn't get this far by randomly adapting the flavor of the month in the fashion-conscious NFL. Visit our 82 lite site if you're having problem...
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