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| 7/9 |
| 2004/2/15-16 [Science/GlobalWarming] UID:12263 Activity:high |
2/14 Not that any of you will heed any of this information, but:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
\_ this article is poorly written. It doesn't even address the actual
implications of an oil shortage, such as famine. It also
cites magic New Energy invented by Tesla. Don't get me wrong, I
not only believe in the coming catastrophic oil crisis; I am
counting on it as a bloodthirsty investor. But this guy is just
going off. His citations have quotes like the second to last
paragraph of http://csua.org/u/60g .
\_ vote for a guy who takes energy issues seroiusly. vote Harry Braun.
http://www.braunforpresident.us
\_ You can't be president unless you were in Skull & Bones.
\_ Do I need to state the obvious? People will start relying on
other forms of energy production. Duh. We are not going back to
the stone age.
\_ I think you need to read the whole page. There's a fairly
persuasive argument on why that won't help avert massive
catastrophe in the short term. Note that our current economy
is not based on the _existence_ of oil but an _abundance_ of
_affordable_ oil. Obviously, once the dust has
catastrophe in the short term. Obviously, once the dust has
cleared and most of us are dead, future civilizations will
rely on other forms of energy production.
\_ It doesn't make a persuasive argument at all. Think about
the shape of a bellcurve. People are not stupid. At worst,
I predict about 5-10 years of relative discomfort (i.e.
WWII style rationing, etc) while a LOT of resources are spent
on energy R&D. This is tinfoil hat fodder, sorry.
\_ i mostly agree with your conclusions, but people are stupid.
i think it's probably possible to cut our energy usage at
least 10% without great discomfort, just by not having a
bunch of idle computers on all the time, lights on when
no one's around, etc. unfortunately, stupid fuckers (like
some of you, i'm sure) never listen to this until the shit
really hits the fan. it's always discouraging to me when
i think about how many computers are on, doing pretty much
nothing, and how pretty much no one cares. also, not
everyone needs to have his own server on 24/7, but most
people who do it probably do it just to feel
cool/elite/whatever.
\_ People are stupid? Spoken like a typical
intellectually elitist cs geek. Do you ever stop
playing Doom and Everquest long enough to leave the
house, or do you just sit around brooding over your
Twinkies telling yourself how superior your intellect
makes you over the jocks that gave you wedgies in high
school? Grow up, son -- the real world isn't as
deterministic and simple as your 'intellectual' point of
view would seem to indicate.
\_ I think his argument that people are stupid is
very well-supported by evidence that he can obtain
by just leaving his house and going for a drive.
Roughly--60%? of the people out there are driving
gas-guzzling SUVs, which are almost the most
INefficient means of transport available. Ergo,
people are stupid, and what's more, wasteful, and
in a fit of spite, I'd be THRILLED if the gov't
slapped on a $4 gas tax and screwed SUV drivers.
I want the stupid waste to stop before all the
nasty economic consequences occur.
\_ I agree with you that SUV drivers are stupid
assholes. However, punishing them for driving
SUV's is going to make them into angry stupid
assholes. We can only win by better technology
and education (technology to make vehicles with
the look and feel of an SUV but without the
shitty gas milage, the visibility hazard or the
rollover hazard and education to teach people
that their choices matter.)
\_ Doesn't conservation just delay things? Oil
isn't growing back anytime soon. Also, we
do have hybrid tech for example which has
a vast gas-saving potential. But that's not
being pushed much by gov't.
\_ sure, but it buys us some more time,
assuming we're smart enough to take
advantage of it. which unfortunately,
we probably aren't.
\_ a decreased burn rate might mean that the
shortfall, when it happens, will have less
of a dangerous shock effect on the world
view would seem to indicate.
we probably aren't.
economy.
\_ making ad hominem attacks against someone you don't
even know is hardly a good way to make an argument.
son.
\_ Tee hee...true.
\_ Years of R&D and millions invested has yielded a "bike".
\_ enjoy biking your food across the country! Doom!
\_ Maybe we can bike to work and still
truck our food?
\_ The problem with these sorts of arguments is (among other things)
they're always very black and white. They assume technology will
never improve or change. They assume the world is static and will
just grind into entropic nothing. If that were so we never would
have left an agriculture based society that was barely life
sustaining. We're not hooked on oil, but on advancing technology.
Everything is ok and will continue to be ok until the day some numb
rely on other forms of energy production.
son.
\_ enjoy biking your food across the country! Doom!
\_ Maybe we can bike to work and still
truck our food?
nuts decides we should stop spending on tech research.
\_ Indeed, in the 19th century we feared the end of the supply
of *whale* *oil*. |
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| www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net -> www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ Life After the Oil Crash Click on the Gas Pump to Enter Over 475,000 visitors since 1/8/2004 Copyright 2003-2004, Matt Savinar Major Updates 4/15 More Updates Coming 4/19 Interest in the Titanic has been revived because its the perfect metaphor for our nation. Intuitively, we know this is true. We just dont want to admit weve already hit the iceberg. George Bush and Hummers are not the problem. John Kerry and Hybrids are not the solution. Deal with reality, or reality will deal with you. A post oil world is going to be just like the Bible, well at least the bad parts of the Bible. Savinar, The Oil Age is Over: What to Expect as the World Runs Out of Cheap Oil, 2005-2050 ext. |
| csua.org/u/60g -> www.culturechange.org/issue20/Last%20days%20of%20America.htm This places mathematical lower limits on the rate of growth of these civilizations. Kaku says that to survive requires growing sources of energy just to keep pace with demand, Specifically, we can rank civilizations by their energy consumption And America leads our world in energy consumption. Unfortunately, we derive most of our energy from a commodity that we dont have enough of, oil. According to some, we can begin to find the alternative resources to build a secure energy future right here within our borders. But others, already invested in the infrastructure of the past have another plan for us. What they dont have for themselves, they can just steal from those who do. Americas most giant corporations have Oil rich Islam staring down the barrels of their hired guns. But while Exxon and Unocal drool at the prospect of how they can best divie up the loot from what may later be known as Historys greatest armed robbery, its time the rest of us pause to think outside the box. Our planets limited supply of oil was created on earth millions of years ago and will eventually either run out or become thermodynamically and economically worthless. And remember, it takes energy to drill for oil let alone refine and transport it for market. In order for civilization to benefit from an energy resource, the finished product must be able to release more energy when put to work, than was used to prepare and develop it. As the easy to find oil is exhausted, the more difficult to extract oil that remains is less useful. Eventually, despite advances in drilling technology, the worlds oil will become less attractive than available alternatives or may simply become worthless as a source of useful energy. As that day approaches, we live in an America long since petroformed by the oil industry from a land of independent family farms and businesses, to a nation dependent like serfs on their lord, on the barons of oil for everything from fuel to fertilizer. Today as we watch without protest, a new Feudalism is being forged worldwide by their mighty armies, our indignation subdued by the prospect of fueling our SUVs with cheap ill begotten oil. Finding the High Ground The high ground of the future is wherever the net energy is. Thats the energy we can put to work without having to expend much existent energy to get it. He calculated that the energy consumption of these three types of civilization would be separated by a factor of many billions. Will we sustain ourselves long enough to reach even the first rung on the ladder? If we dont, we will simply join the growing list of extinct species found on our planet and thought to riddle the universe. Kaku must think we have a long way to go just to get on the first rung, A Type One civilization is one that controls the energy resources of its planet. This civilization can control the weather, prevent earthquakes, mine deep in the earths crust, and harvest the oceans. This civilization has already completed the exploration of its solar system. A recent report by Alex Johnson of MSNBC that demonstrates that our actions in the Mideast are tailored for an energy policy catering not to the available resources on our table, but to the proprietary interests of Big Oil and their lust for other peoples resources. Johnson said, The belief in some circles is that the heavy reliance on foreign oil, including Iraqi crude, is factored into the White House plans to take on Saddam. Johnson also quotes George Sterzinger, executive director of the Renewable Energy Policy Project, There are technologies that exist now that could replace looming shortfalls in fossil resourcesR&D has paid off Truth? In the year 2000, United States energy consumption was estimated at 102 quadrillion Btu, a staggering figure. Incredibly though, more than 10 million more quadrillion units of solar energy hits the ground on American soil each day than we used that whole year! The rays of the sun could used to generate cost effective electricity, to grow biofuels, or manufacture hydrogen to fuel vehicles. Johnson wrote to his mainstream readers, But, alternative energy advocates say, the game is rigged. They complain that those shortcomings could be surmounted with adequate federal support, and they accuse the government of talking a good game but failing to deliver. Talking about Big Oil, Johnson pointed out, Since Bush took office, his administration has directed a total of $6 billion in subsidies toward conservation, fuel efficiency and renewable resources, less than a quarter of the $27 billion it has spent on fossil fuels, according to an analysis by The New York Times . Speaking to the mainstream, Johnson himself admits, The United States energy challenges are much more grave than the president, the Senate or the House has recognized, than anybody has ever articulated to the American people. Consider these words from Kaku, A Type Two civilization is one that controls the power of the sun itself. By the year 2005, the industry will just break even-it will be necessary to use as much energy to produce any given quantity. Oil production peaked in the lower forty eight states decades ago and even with the potential production of fields in Alaska, we will still remain dependent on imports if we plan to continue selling our big cars. Soon though, because of the thermodynamic costs, it wont be logical to look for new oil anywhere in the US because, even if you could sell oil for $500 a barrel, exploring, drilling, and transporting it to market would consume more energy than it would recover. They have long since outgrown the producing oil reserves in this country and they now have literally set their sights on the low hanging fruit in the Caspian Sea and the vast reserves of Iraq. Of course though, even these thermodynamically rich resources wont be around forever amid exponentially growing worldwide demand. And Unocal, Halliburton, Exxon, and their off shore clones have worked hard to install a national leadership to do their bidding for them. They had to because the cost of doing business has gotten so much higher. In this case though, they found a way to offset the high costs of acquisition. They can get to the thermodynamically good stuff with taxpayer-subsidized munitions. Oil is simply becoming more and more thermodynamically expensive worldwide and now in order to survive, Oil companies need to concentrate on the low hanging fruit, the elephant finds, the ones found in other peoples countries. MSNBCs Johnson, quoting petro industry sources point out, The United States economy runs on oil, and it does so because it is cheap and convenient it isnt any more complicated than that, an industry official said. Through the miracle of petroforming, competing energy sources arent as versatile as petroleum. Johnson says, Theyre not what the industry calls fungible, meaning they cant be used for a wide spectrum of applications. The bad news is, when the oil supply ultimately fails, absent alternative technologies, the worlds food supply will go with it. But when it comes to developing alternative technologies though, in a government controlled by former oil company kingpins, as Johnson quotes George Sterzinger, Executive Director of the Renewable Energy Policy Project, policies dont move in that direction. Since all our energy eggs have been put in the oil basket, the fate of one will determine the fate of the other. The United States Geological Survey has said that Oil discovery is about to peak worldwide and absent an alternative, there will be more at stake for us than just our bragging rights to being an advanced civilization. Kaku says, Even an advanced civilization is bound by the laws of thermodynamics, especially the Second Law, and can hence be ranked by the energy at their disposal. In reality, because there is in only a dwindling supply of energy that can be sucked from the well, absent an alternative, we will be living in an energy limited economy. Hanson adds, It has been estimated that about four percent of the nations energy budget is used to grow food, while about 10 to 13 percent is needed to put it on our plates. In other words, a staggerin... |
| www.braunforpresident.us -> www.braunforpresident.us/ Net plan that will employ millions of Americans and supercharge the economy by making America energy independent of all fossil and nuclear fuels by 2010. Note the tugboat at the base of the Windship that is delivering the crew that will live and work in the submerged spherical hulls. The hulls will also contain the electrolytic hydrogen production systems that will make hydrogen from the seawater with the electricity generated by the mast of wind turbines. Because of all of the equipment that is located under the water, a vast sanctuary will be provided for the fish and other marine organisms that will otherwise be driven into extinction by 2010, if business and politics as usual is allowed to continue. |