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| 11/22 |
| 2012/10/29-12/4 [Science/Disaster, Computer/SW/Languages/Java, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:54516 Activity:nil |
10/29 Go Away Sandy.
\_ Sorry, Coursera is performing preventive maintenance for this
class site ahead of Hurricane Sandy. Please check back in 15 minutes.
class site ahead of Hurricane Sandy. Please check back in 15
minutes.
\_ Bitch.
\_ Once a bitch, always a bitch. |
| 2011/10/20-11/8 [Science/Disaster] UID:54199 Activity:nil |
10/20 Earthquake!
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/nc71667366.html
\_ It's funny that the Great California ShakeOut earthquake drill just
took place this morning. It'd be even more funny if the quake hit
during the drill. |
| 2010/4/8-5/10 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:53779 Activity:nil |
4/8 Animals Living Without Oxygen Discovered for First Time - Yahoo!:
http://www.csua.org/u/qi3 |
| 2010/1/23-25 [Science/Disaster, Computer/SW/Security, Computer/HW] UID:53658 Activity:low |
1/22 Tornado at Brentwood! http://weather.yahoo.com/storm/USCA0128.html \_ oh noes a widdle weather. \_ yawn |
| 2009/12/2-26 [Science/Disaster] UID:53559 Activity:low |
12/2 So I am trying to convince my company to take disaster planning
more seriously. Does anyone have any hard numbers on how often
data centers fail? I mean blow up, burn down, flood, etc, with
total loss of all services for an extended period of time.
\_ hard numbers tend to be SEKRET. But check out Yahoo's recent
outage and UltraDNS' outage. Those were both pretty bad.
\_ I don't know, but I am in the same predicament. Instead of
focusing on _TOTAL FAILURE_ (which is rare and evokes a
response of "In a 10.2 earthquake I am not coming in to work
anyway, because I am going to go check on my kids and
get my gun, buddy.") focus on real problems which are much more
likely to occur: power outages, localized floods, localized fires,
etc. The entire data center does not have to blow up for there
to be a major, major problem.
\_ What are the likelihood of those events then? This is pretty
important engineering data, someone must study this.
\_ Any company that has a lot of data would know.
Insurance companies, government data on disaster, etc.
\_ 1. This is going to vary based on a lot of factors like
your geography, industry, utilities, building construction
etc. I would argue it is so specialized to your site
that averages do not matter. Plus, we all have
different needs as far as availability and uptime.
\_ I don't care what your needs are, I can determine that
for my own company (okay I actually make a menu list
and senior executives make the decision based on my
risk analysis vs. cost). What I need is hard data to
make an informed risk analysis. What is the MTBF for
an entire data center? It is in Dallas if you really
think that matters.
\_ Listen, guy. I am trying to help you. I don't
need attitude from you. The MTBF between a data
center made of concrete and buried a mile under
the Rockies is quite different from the MTBF for
a data center built out of paper next to the banks
of the Mississippi. So MTBF for "the average data
center" has very little bearing on _your_ MTBF.
Hell yes it matters that you are in Dallas versus,
say, Somalia, dipshit.
\_ I'm not the op, but my reading comprehension
is a lot better than yours so let me help you
out. The disaster planning guy simply wants
a real life story of a disaster that was
averted due to planning. A story, albeit
irrelevant to actual circumstances, is
sometimes more powerful than listing boring
numbers that a lot of the upper management
MBA business dudes don't understand and
don't want to hear.
\_ Good point, but it's not what the guy asked
for. He asked for "hard data" for a
"risk analysis". Your reading comprehension
sucks.
\_ why don't we let the op decide -pp
\_ I suspect that in the public sector, the best
way to empire build is to create a horrific
scenario that only you can solve, by the
application of a multi-million dollar budget
and a bevy of new hires. This explains crazy
shit like having thousands of Federal officers
force everyone to take off their shoes before
forcing everyone to take off their shoes before
flying and data centers a mile underground.
In the private sector, you have to do a Cost-
Benefit analysis to prove that what you want
to accomplish makes financial sense. So anecdotes
won't do, though they might help. Your reminder
that historical data is the best way to go is
useful though, our DC provider is AT&T who
surely must have already done this analysis. I
will ask them. Thank you for your advice.
\_ You're an idiot.
2. This is not easy data to find. I am guessing companies
do not like to make this info public. Sungard keeps
some statistics like:
a. Hardware failure remains the leading cause of business
disruption (almost 50%)
b. Problems resulting from disruptions to power
supplies account for more than one-quarter (26%) of
customer disaster invocations
c. Flooding and infrastructure-related problems such
as air conditioning faults and failure of uninterrupted
power supply systems were the third biggest cause of
business disruption.
d. The average customer affected by Katrina used the
backup facility for 22 days.
\_ Can you point me to the Sungard info? Thanks.
3. What we did was analyze our own site and infrastructure
over the last 30 years. Sure, we might be missing the
100 year flood and 100 million year meteor impact, but it
gives us a good idea of events likely to occur and
protecting against those does a pretty good job
against the rare events, too, in most cases.
\_ This company does not have that kind of data available
internally, for one thing we are only 15 years old.
Plus we only are in a few datacenters, so we just
don't have enough data points.
\_ Certainly you can examine the last 15 years
and for certain catastrophes like hurricanes
you can go back even before the company existed.
For example, we have a good idea of how often
earthquakes strike California. You should have
a good idea of how often disastrous tornadoes
(or whatever) strike your area even if the
the last one happened in 1950. In our case we
expect a wildfire every 50 years, an earthquake
every 20 years, a windstorm every decade, etc.
Figure this out for your own site and then add
in other variables like construction of your
buildings, physical security (terrorism),
how good your utilities have been over the
15 years you have data (blackouts), etc. |
| 2009/7/22-29 [Science/Disaster] UID:53178 Activity:nil |
7/22 New Zealand moved 12 inches closer to Australia last Thursday:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090722/sc_afp/nzealandquakescience |
| 11/22 |
| 2008/12/18-2009/1/2 [Science/Disaster] UID:52276 Activity:nil |
12/18 Peak Oil happening faster than previously suspected:
http://tinyurl.com/4eqwh2 (FT) |
| 2008/11/20-21 [Science/Disaster] UID:52056 Activity:insanely high |
11/20 So oil finally hit $50 like I've been predicting for a long time
now on MOTD. So what am I doing about it? Thinking about buying
shares of SLB. Trying to figure out a good entry point. Right now
I read that the oil companies are pumping and storing oil. Yes,
sounds like PEAK OIL to me.
\_ Has the fed resumed stocking up the underground strategic reserve
again?
\_ Saying the same thing 50x and being right once is not exactly
divine insight.
\_ Sure it is. I've been saying "Oil -> $50" even when it was
$150. I don't need to give an exact date when it would
happen. A lot of people thought it would NEVER happen.
\_ Did anyone on the motd make this claim? I don't remember
seeing anyone.
\_ http://csua.com/2008/10/17/#51569
http://csua.com/2008/03/07/#49375
\_ no one in either of those discussions claims that
oil will never be $50/barrel again. -tom
\_ You are so obtuse. What's important there is
that I made the claim it would be $50 again and
there was a lot of argument that the oil prices
were really based on supply/demand, which we
know now is bullshit. I didn't mean to imply
anyone on MOTD said oil would never hit $50
again (although if I had to guess I'm sure you
thought so without saying) but that many people
across the nation thought so. So many articles
about the end of cheap oil, blah blah blah blah.
Like I said, many mutual funds were buying oil
stocks like it would last. I think a lot of
people are shocked oil went back to $50, but not
me. I've been saying it for months. Give me
credit, dude.
\_ Try yoga; if you get good at it, you'll be able
to suck your own dick. -tom
\_ I'll have to take your word for it.
\_ Demand is way way down in the US. Aren't you
aware of this?
\_ "I am suggesting that it only can do so by a demand
shock not a supply increase, hence a global
recession, at least until we can get our economy
less hooked on cheap oil."
I am the one who deserves the props here. -GS
\_ Don't you get that oil prices hinge on a
lot more than supply and demand? Demand
for oil in the US fell a whopping 5% January to
October according to API. In fact, oil prices
were rising the first half of this year
even as demand fell 3%.
\_ Prove it. Prove that worldwide demand was
falling the first half of the year. And
stop stomping on my changes asshole.
\_ Learn to use Google
http://tinyurl.com/5pdnzn
Sorry if I am stomping on your
changes if it is indeed me, which I
doubt. BTW, how did we go from "way
way down in the US" to "worldwide
demand"? My article addresses the
former fallacious claim. I don't
have time to track all of your crazy
claims down.
\_ Actually you verified my "crazy claim"
that demand was down in the US, thanks
for that.
\_ 5% down is "way way down"?
\_ Yes, especially for a product
with such a steeply inelestic
supply-demand curve. Actually,
it is huge for any product.
What else is usage down by 5%
For what else is usage down by 5%
in less than a year?
\_ "I am suggesting that it only can do so by a
demand shock not a supply increase, hence a
global recession, at least until we can get our
economy less hooked on cheap oil."
Someone deserves credit, but it isn't you...
\_ Uh huh. Peak oil!
\_ wait, I thought high oil price was due to high demand from China
and India. What happened again?
\_ global credit collapse?
\_ But the shots do find their mark and have gone into the exhaust port
and are heading for the main reactor.
\_ I am going to cash out my bonds and buy stocks. I was going to
wait until Jan 1, but this maximum pessimism makes me pretty
sure we are at or close to a bottom. I am still holding my CA
munis. |
| 2008/10/21-26 [Science/Disaster] UID:51611 Activity:nil |
10/21 Peak Oil, a billion dollar hoax:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/5mujcl |
| 2008/10/17-22 [Science/Disaster] UID:51569 Activity:kinda low |
10/17 http://tinyurl.com/55qdqa Article speculating that "oil bubble" was caused by hedge funds and that oil prices are down now because hedge funds have had massive redemptions. Where are the peak oil weenies now? Oil -> $50. \_ What are you, twelve? A drop in price is an opportunity to fix our oil dependency once and for all. \_ Peak Oil is not a matter of it, just when. As I said before, oil prices are very inelestic and since demand is down, prices should be way down. They will be back up again soon enough, take advantage of the respite to save. \_ Uh huh. Obviously oil prices are not that inelastic, because they've fallen like a stone. \_ Inelastic does not mean what you think it means. Oil consumption in the US is expected to decline, in spite of the fact that prices are down. Worldwide demand is still going to go up, just less than before. \_ So worldwide demand is going up, but prices are falling like a stone. Please start making sense. \_ Go read an econ textbook or something. Elastic == price and demand are tightly correlated. Inelastic == demand stays constant (relatively) no matter what happens to price. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand http://tinyurl.com/634txb (this is better actually) \_ I've taken more econ. than you have I bet. Please to be explaining why the price of oil is falling. If demand is constant no matter what then what incentive is there for the price to fall? \_ Hmm, let me think, it is called a supply/demand curve. I wonder what variable other than demand could be in play here... \_ You think supplies are increasing that much, huh? Kinda blows away the idea that we are close to peak oil, wot wot? 2008 production is 1-2% higher than last year: we are close to peak oil, wot wot? (2008 production is 1-2% higher than last year: http://tinyurl.com/yprlk . Clearly that's enough to cause the price to fall in half. WTF do you think these curves look like? No, the issue here is with the demand side: specifically, speculators. \_ I think it is pretty obvious what the curves look like and that you are in denial about it. A very small increase or decrease in production over demand has a huge impact on prices. No one (or no reasonable person, at least) would claim that the "Peak" event will happen all at once. There is always going to be small movement up and down, as global events influence production. Also, as prices go up, new sources become economically recoverable. You should consider the strengthening dollar in your analaysis of how much prices have moved. Priced in Yen or Euro's, oil prices have moved quite a bit less. Don't mistake dollar volatility for commodity price volitility. \_ http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7875749 The IEA still believes crude consumption will be higher than in the same period last year (+400,000 bpd) \_ sure, lots of levered long plays on oil by all sorts of funds (hedge, pension, other institutionals). with global slowdown, everyone ran for the exits. this is common knowledge for many traders. those evil speculaterss!!1 \_ I hope they're topping off the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. \_ Peak oil isn't scheduled to arrive until around 2010-2012 -- I said multiple times only a global recession could drive down prices which is exactly what is happening. Since the market is projecting a global economic contraction, demand will be reduced so prices go down. This all has nothing to do with peak oil, which is about the peak in oil *SUPPLY*. \_ Peak oil weenies claimed that the reason prices were so high was because the world was going to run out by 2020 or something. That was fear mongering. There's so much supply that OPEC is talking about reducing output. The current price is a good indicator that we're not close to peak oil yet. You don't go from "plentiful oil" to "peak oil" in 2 years (or whatever it was), sorry. \_ Peak oil specifically says the second 1/2 of the world's total usable oil will be so expensive to extract that it'll cost MORE to extract with current technology than to sell the oil, hence no one will extract it anymore. \_ Okay. And what evidence is there we are at the halfway point? \_ If the definition of "plentiful oil" is "more than demand" then indeed it's easy to do that. Oil supply has been flat for about 3 years now, and there is no proof that it's going to go up anytime soon. \_ Supply is going to (roughly) match demand. When you can say there's a problem is when supply cannot be met. One indicator of that is when production decreases even as prices rise. Clearly, we are not there yet. \- A good (non-ideological) question is "why do oil prices have so much more volatility than the instability of supply and demand". the simple answer is the prices are also a function of changing information/expectation *and* given a production cartel and other influential players with "market power" [to abuse that term a bit]. so in addition to speculators, there is strategic production strategy. it's not reasonable to write another 1000 words on this and frankly i dont understand it that well, but there more to it than supply and demand and elasticity. You may also want to look up Contango and Backwardation. Per my earlier link about manipulation in the copper mkt, the way these mkts work is very far removed from theory ... i.e. there is no simple answer. [if you are familar with economics, part of thinking about this involves the "art" of teasing out short run phenomena from long run equillibria. for an analogy in FX, say DORNBUSCH OVERSHOOTING vs convergence to PPP "eventually"]. |
| 2008/10/9 [Science/Disaster] UID:51452 Activity:high |
10/9 I'm just wondering where all the "peak oil" morons are now that
oil prices have fallen almost in half. Anyone who looked at
consumption versus production could plainly see that, peak oil or
not, the recent spike was mostly speculative.
\_ the speculation of peak oil fueled it out, though peak oil
is not an effect that will never happen, but it's really more
of a question of when. Not now, not in 5-10 years, but some
day. Not now. -!peak oil guy
\_ Isn't "peak oil" about the amount of oil we can extract per day, not
the price of oil?
\_ yeah peak oil is about amount of oil we can extract as a whole.
if you're focusing on the current price, you are short sighted
\_ I didn't say there's no such thing as peak oil, just that
we're apparently not there or prices would have stayed high.
The number of idiots claiming that demand in China was why
oil prices doubled in a year was astounding. So what do they
have to say now? OPEC is talking about reducing production
to keep prices high!
\_ Demand in China *is* why prices were up, it is just now that
demand drop in the US is outpacing demand increase in China.
This is probably temporary, but I would prefer to hope
otherwise.
\_ anti-peak-oil moron: you need to learn about the difference between
a shift along the demand curve and a shift of the demand curve.
\_ I think you need to prove that one has happened instead of
the other.
\_ Even today oil prices are way above what they were only a few years
ago. You need to look at long-term trends, not the movement of
oil prices over a few months time, which ARE speculative. |
| 2008/9/10-12 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:51127 Activity:nil |
9/10 Instead of discussing lipstick stupidity, how about a real scandal?
"Government officials handling billions of dollars in oil royalties
partied, had sex with and accepted golf and ski outings from
employees of energy companies they were dealing with, federal investigators
said Wednesday."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080910/ap_on_go_ot/interior_oil_trysts
\- the republocan are only doing ths to make a point about how
govts are inherently corrupt. these people are RANDROID HEREOS!
\_ `"this whole IG report reads like a script from a television
miniseries and one that cannot air during family viewing time."`
Hmm, where can I submit my resume to those oil companies?
\- drill, babee, drill |
| 2008/7/29-8/3 [Science/Disaster] UID:50722 Activity:nil |
7/29 5.8 quake in LA
\_ Felt exactly like Whittier quake, so it's not surprising it's
roughly the same size. A whole lotta shaking, though.
\_ Chino Hills is NOT Los Angeles. Los Angeles is in-between
the 110 the 10 and the 5. Chino Hills is far away from
Los Angeles. Fucking ignorant northerners. To be precise,
you should say "The Greater LA"
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Quakes/ci14383980.php#details
http://preview.tinyurl.com/67pu5h [usgs]
\_ LA is not only between the 110, 10, and 5, angry dude. LA is
south of the 10, for instance. Chino Hills is rightly
considered a suburb of LA, even though it is in SB County.
Plenty of people in LA proper were shaken pretty good.
\_ The epicenter was Chino hills. Are you saying there wasn't any
shaking in LA proper?
\_ revised down to a 5.4 |
| 2008/6/26-30 [Science/Disaster] UID:50386 Activity:nil |
6/26 when the super collidor ends the earth's rotation, will the oceans
still stick around or will they create the biggest world tsunami
ever?
\_ The oceans will synchronously and magically stop with the rest
of the planet. However, the black hole which is your brain
will merge with the one created by the supercollider and pass
into another dimension, leaving your skull empty, which no
one will notice.
\_ The high tides we get twice a day are more or less tsunamis, IMHO.
\_ Its not going to, you can return your raft. No force can just
stop the earth, so the mythical scenario of "what happens to
the ocean when it happens" doesn't matter. They would obey Newton's
laws though, so if it magically did happen, they would slosh all
over west coasts (the earth rotates to the east, hence the water
has "eastward" momentum). They would also likely create more
tsunamis as they receeded from being all over wester coasts toward
the eastern coasts.
\_ How is one defining "earth?" It's not like land is all that solid. |
| 2008/6/19-23 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:50309 Activity:low |
6/19 CBS and MSNBC talk to a PhD about global warming causing more energetic
earthquakes. Only problem is that he's not a PhD, he's a crackpot.
http://www.sanspretense.com/2008/06/18/78
\_ Which obviously means that all white things are ducks.
\_ Not the conclusion I was drawing. The mainstream media is so
enamored with global warming they'll take anyone to link anything
to it, so they're worthless as a watchdog on the creeping
socialism of global warming. Either that or they're completely
incompetent, in which case they're equally worthless. -op
\_ Worse than worthless. In cases of fear mongering, whether
of terrorist threat, or AGW, or any other boogeymen (real or
imagined), the press is a mostly unquestioning ampliphier
imagined), the press is a mostly unquestioning amplifier
of the self-serving line of hyperbole and nonsense coming
from those who wish to rule. -crebbs
\_ I wish to rule. They're not amping *my* message! |
| 2008/6/17-20 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:50281 Activity:nil |
6/17 World's wealthiest Oil Man endorses Peak Oil concept:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/68tf3f (Yahoo News)
\_ Peak oil is guaranteed when you stop drilling. Ever increasing
energy prices are guaranteed when you stop building power plants.
Econ 1.
\_ We have more oil wells in the United States than the rest of the
world, combined. Drilling quadrupled after the 70s oil shocks
yet oil production continued to slide. Peak oil is a result
of geology, not politics or economics. |
| 2008/6/11-13 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:50227 Activity:nil |
6/11 Oil companies may have under estimate their reserves:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/4omqlj [new scientist] |
| 2008/5/19-23 [Science/Disaster] UID:50007 Activity:nil |
5/19 Picture of China earthquake site.
http://tinyurl.com/65lr67 (news.yahoo.com)
I don't know what to say. It's good if the China earthquake victims
are drawing inspiration and encouragement from the Sep 11 victims. I
just hope that the flag wasn't planted by the Reuters journalist
himself trying to get a Pulitzer Prize. |
| 2008/3/7-9 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:49375 Activity:high |
3/7 So what's the truth about oil prices? I'm sure supply is about
where it was 5 years ago and I cannot imagine demand is that much
higher and yet prices are almost triple. Is this a speculative
bubble where investors are buying oil because they perceive the
price of oil to be rising, is this manipulated by OPEC, or have
costs of doing business risen dramatically?
\_ What about it? People are already working on a solution.
The free market will solve the problem. -dimwit #1 fan
\_ The problem is that it's not a free market for oil.
\_ http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
More info than you can possibly want to know.
Not directly addressed on that page is the fact that oil supply
is not entirely fungible; as production in individual countries
starts to fall, those countries tend to stop exporting oil before
their supply totally crashes. That shifts more of the demand to
countries with riskier supplies like Iraq and Iran. It also
reduces the excess capacity available on the market, which makes
the market more susceptible to shocks.
And demand is rising, of course. -tom
\_ Not really that much info there. Most of it was historical.
However, the article does allude to a $50/barrel "risk
premium". Is that really justified? To me that's another way
to say 'gouge' and that oil should realistically be about
$40-50 barrel based on supply and demand alone.
\_ Who is gouging whom? Crude oil is a relatively free market.
Why do you think it should be $40-$50 a barrel? -tom
\_ I am saying that based on supply and demand that is
where it should be. That's from your own article! So
there is a $50 "risk premium". That seems hard to
justify. I also can't believe you think oil is a
'relatively free market' when there is a cartel involved.
\_ Demand is certainly up and the truth is that oil prices are mostly
inelastic. So demand doesn't go down very much when prices go up.
If you think about this, there are pretty dire consequences for
the world economy, since the only other way to slow down oil
consumption is to have a recession. I can dig up some Economist
articles about this if you want, but you should try Googling
yourself first. -ausman
\_ I don't think these prices are driven by demand. Demand has
not tripled. The curve is steep and there's no real reason
for it. It's not unprecedented, but it's peculiar. I mean,
if demand is that inelastic then why not charge $200 or $400
per barrel? (Or why not charge $100 sooner when $35 was just
fine not long ago?) A 'risk premium' to me means that
someone is hoarding supply 'just in case they can't get any
later'. I know the US was doing this with the strategic oil
reserve. Is the US government the culprit and soaking up the
supply at these prices? Most businesses tend to buy what
they need and not keep massive inventories of oil. My
opinion is that much of this rise is speculative just like
the price of tulips or Miami condos. I am just wondering who
the greater fool is here. "Oil prices will never go down.
They aren't making more of it."
They aren't making more of it." I noticed in a lot of my
mutual fund portfolios that oil companies and suppliers are big
contributors in terms of % of portfolio. This implies to me
that Wall Street is parking a lot of my money there looking
for the quick buck and I was wondering what happens when
(not if) oil prices finally go down. Look at this graph:
http://i129.photobucket.com/albums/p237/1ace11/200705fig1.jpg
Pay attention to the "real" parts and not the forecast. As
you can see both supply and demand have been near a plateau
since maybe 2004 and yet price has risen.
\_ I look at the same graph and I see that production exceeded
consumption for most of 2004-2006, then production started
to fall, but consumption did not. In fact consumption went
up. So prices going up is what a relatively inelestic demand
curve would predict. Why didn't they raise prices sooner?
Because there was someone there willing to undercut them if
they did. Why isn't demand going down to match supply right
now? Because the people consuming most of the oil (American
drivers and manufacturers worldwide) are willing to pay
more to get the oil they want. This stand off has to resolve
itself somehow, I agree, but I am suggesting that it only
can do so by a demand shock not a supply increase, hence a
global recession, at least until we can get our economy
less hooked on cheap oil. The other alternative explaination
is that we are just suffering for an underinvestment in
oil exploration back when oil was really cheap, like in
oil exploration back from when oil was really cheap, like in
the late 90s. If that really is true, then production should
ramp back up again RSN.
\_ speculation, dollar weakness, venezualen hijinx
\_ Dollar weakness is something I forgot about, but a very good
point.
\_ Yes, perhaps these speculators are just looking for an
inflation hedge. |
| 2008/3/4-7 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:49338 Activity:low |
3/4 Peak oil?
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2nwllk (wsj)
\_ Why does the WSJ publish this liberal clap-trap? I believe in
abiotic oil, which never runs out.
\_ You'd think if abiotic oil (also known as "oil creationism")
were true the USA wouldn't of hit a peak in 1970 since we
pray so much in this country.
\_ Obviously, we don't have enough faith and must
pray harder. -GWB
\_ What science backs your belief of abiotic oil? Also, even if
true, the rate at which these abiotic processes replace oil
matters. If they are slower than we're pulling oil from the
ground then there's still a peak oil problem, yes?
\_ I am not mr. aboitic believer, but there is some science,
mostly from Russia, that supports a abiogenic theory for
the origin of petroleum. Wikipedia has a decent discussion:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin
There was an article on this in SciAM or Discover a few
years back that dicussed the abiogenic theory.
I agree that if we deplete petroleum faster than these
processes can replace it, the peak oil problem remains.
\_ this guy's summary is basically taht 'more efficiant extraction
techniques will let us get more oil out of exhausted fields'. This
is the endgame of peak oil, and only delays the peak a little bit.
He's exaggerating how much the delay will be though. -ERic
\_ "Just make the next generation deal with it" is a pretty small
comfort, unless you are expecting The Rapture to bail humanity
out.
\_ He's saying the date is far enough out that other technologies
will replace oil by then anyway, thus the old line he quotes
about the stone age not ending from lack of stones. |
| 2008/1/4-7 [Science/Disaster] UID:48891 Activity:nil |
1/4 Are storm, hurricane and typhoon all the same thing?
\_ A typhoon is a hurricane in the Pacific.
\_ Except when it's in the Eastern Pacific, where it's called
a hurricane.
\_ A hurricane has to reach a certain rotational speed (80mph?) before
it officially is recorded as a hurricane. Lower than that it is
a "tropical storm". |
| 2007/11/13-16 [Science/Disaster] UID:48625 Activity:low |
11/12 Global recession is here. -recession swami
\_ How do you define recession? Two quarters of negative GDP in a row?
\_ Recession is currently defined as a price drop in Google stock
of more than 10%
\_ All the signs are here. Barrel of oil price is very high,
oil demand is up. We're at the plateau of oil peak. This
will have domino effects on the economy, which is oil
driven. We're running out of the capacity to fuel our
needs for oil. Global recession is here. -recession swami
\_ you sound more like PEAK OIL SWAMI to me. |
| 2007/10/30-11/2 [Science/Disaster] UID:48491 Activity:nil |
10/30 Whoo big earthquake
\_ Was it just me, or did this quake feel very different than the other
ones I went through? In all the other ones I went through (San Jose
during Loma Prieta quake in '89, Irvine during Northridge quake in
'94, and a few smaller ones), the buildings swung or shook.
However, last night my house in Fremont literally vibrated
vertically at a very high frequency, maybe 10Hz or even higher,
with no swinging or shaking. It felt like I was sitting on a
gigantic subwoofer on high volume. I never thought a quake could
feel like this.
\_ Was it just me, or did this quake feel very different from the
other ones? In all the other ones I went through (San Jose during
Loma Prieta quake in '89, Irvine during Northridge quake in '94,
and a few smaller ones), the buildings swung or shook. However,
last night my house in Fremont literally vibrated vertically at a
very high frequency, maybe 10Hz or even higher, with no swinging or
shaking. It felt like I was sitting on a gigantic subwoofer on
high volume. I never thought a quake could feel like this. |
| 2007/10/19-24 [Science/Disaster, Finance/Investment] UID:48382 Activity:nil |
10/19 "Oil jumps over $90 a barrel"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071019/bs_ft/fto101920070302459290
\_ Bushonomics.
\_ Reaganomics.
\_ Dogonomics. |
| 2007/10/15-17 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:48316 Activity:nil |
10/15 "Oil Futures Hit New Record Above $85"
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071015/oil_prices.html
Just Two weeks ago some economist was predicting $100 by end of next
year. It might even come sooner than that. |
| 2007/3/13-15 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:45955 Activity:low |
3/13 "I don't want to pick on Al Gore," Don J. Easterbrook, an emeritus
professor of geology at Western Washington University, told hundreds of
experts at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America.
"But there are a lot of inaccuracies in the statements we are seeing,
and we have to temper that with real data."
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/13/science/13gore.html
\_ Did Easterbrook actually point to Gore's use of info on hurricanes
as an "'imperfection' and 'technical flaw'"? Saying "this year
didn't meet the predictions" doesn't disprove Gore's claims in the
movie, nor the fundamental basis for the predictions.
\_ the hurricane criticism was weak. gore said that hurricanes
would become more powerful as ocean water got warmer -- he made
no statement as to the frequency.
\_ This guy needs his tenure and funding pulled and a few death threats
to set him straight. Then he'll "get it".
\_ actually, he just needs to publish convincing evidence that there
is no global warming. if the evidence were irrefutable, he'd win
a nobel prize. as it is, we have 90% certainty that humans are
causing an increase in global temperatures.
\_ He's a Denier! Why are you defending him? Are you a Denier,
too?
\_ "If you rake him over the coals, you're going to find people who
disagree. But in terms of the big picture, he got it right." |
| 2006/10/12-13 [Science/Disaster, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:44800 Activity:nil |
10/12 Someone posted on 8/21: "And btw, where are all those GW caused storms
and hurricanes we were promised?"
Here is the answer: "The El Nino has already helped make the Atlantic
hurricane season milder than expected, said a forecaster for the NOAA."
http://www.csua.org/u/h6m (Yahoo! News)
http://www.malaya.com.ph/sep21/agri1.htm
http://www.sabcnews.com/sci_tech/science/0,2172,134819,00.html |
| 2006/10/9-10 [Science/Disaster] UID:44737 Activity:nil |
10/9 Jane's on NK test:
http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jdw/jdw061009_2_n.shtml
'The figure of .55 kT, however, seems too low given the 4.2 register
on the Richter scale. This could suggest - depending upon the
geological make-up of the test site - a yield of 2-12 kT. If,
however, the lower yield is correct, it would suggest that the test
had been a "pre- or post-detonation" event (ie a failure), as it had
been anticipated that North Korea's first nuclear test would have a
significantly higher yield." |
| 2006/9/26-28 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:44553 Activity:nil |
9/26 Left wing socialist nutcase Nature reports left wing socialist commie
Commerce Dept blocked NOAA report containing consensus view of NOAA
scientists that global warming "may" be partly responsible for more
powerful hurricanes
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20060926/D8KCPSL00.html |
| 2006/8/22-24 [Science/Disaster] UID:44089 Activity:moderate |
8/21 "Less than half of people 65 and older abide by heat-emergency
recommendations like drinking lots of water. Reason: they don't
consider themselves seniors... There are four stages of denial, says
Eric Holdeman, director of emergency management for Seattle's King
County, which faces a significant earthquake threat. One is, it
won't happen. Two is, if it does happen, it won't happen to me.
Three: if it does happen to me, it won't be that bad. And four:
if it happens to me and it's bad, there's nothing I can do to stop
it anyway... Ours is a strange culture of irrational distrust--buoyed
by irrational optimism." Americans are stupid.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1229102,00.html
\_ Well yes, but it's not really surprising. The only bad things
that happen to most Americans are little things that are caused
by other people. (Like getting your car stolen.) Americans
just don't really believe bad things will happen to them.
Remember all the people standing around the WTC on 9/11? It's
like it never occured to them that it might fall down. A lot of
people didn't leave the second tower because they figured it only
affected the first. Actually, it's not just Americans, it's
affluent people who live in peaceful places.
\_ I think a lot of people didn't leave the second tower because
they were told that staying put were safer, and they were taught
they were told that staying put were safer. They were taught
they were told that staying put wwas safer. They were taught
that following instructions in emergencies (to stay put in this
case) were safer.
case) were safer, and better educated people are more likely to
case) was safer, and better-educated people are more likely to
follow instructions in situations like these.
\_ If I was in the second tower when the first one hit I'd haul
ass immediately as far away as possible. Following safety
instructions that don't make sense has a lot more to do with
wisdom or lack thereof than education level. I don't see
how education level has anything to do with this anyway, since
the towers are filled with workers from barely got GED to
Phd math/econ types.
\_ If you were in the second tower, you wouldn't know that the
fire was a plane hit until much later.
\_ I thought the second strike was about an hour after the
first? Everyone in tower2 should have known what had
happened to tower1 shouldn't they?
\_ Who in the tower would have thought that the hit was
not an accident by a terror plot, let alone a part of
a bigger terror plot involving more than one plane?
\_ I sent email after the first hit that I was going
to work from home that day. Self preservation:
it's a Darwin thing.
\_ Dude, have you ever seen videos of the stupid things people
do in third world countries? Stupidity is not governed by
socio-economic or political boundaries.
\_ Meh, I guess you're right.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5270118.stm
\_ "When Um Ali Mihdi returned to her home in the southern
Lebanese city of Bint Jbeil two days ago, she found a
1,000lb (450kg) Israeli bomb lying unexploded in her living
room. The shell is huge, bigger than the young boy pushed
forward to stand reluctantly next to it while we get our
cameras out and record the scene for posterity."
What the fuck? "Here kid, go stand there for scale. WE'RE
WAITING"
\_ Not that they wouldn't all die if it went off, but
still funny that some moron pushed the kid forward who
was too smart to volunteer.
\_ "Of course we want help from the government, but not the
Lebanese army - if it wasn't for the resistance, Bint Jbeil
would still be under occupation."
Yes, if it wasn't for the resistance, Israel's force that
invaded to quell the resistance would still be... oh wait.
\_ If Israel completely disarmed, they'd be genocided.
If their neighbors completely disarmed there would be
peace and economic prosperity throughout the region.
Everyone knows it but it isn't PC to say so. Pretending
otherwise makes people feel better.
\_ Bad guys never disarm by choice. It is silly
for good guys to try to teach by example in this
case. |
| 2006/7/17-19 [Science/Disaster] UID:43686 Activity:nil |
7/17 Another tsunami in Indonesia
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060717/ap_on_re_as/indonesia_earthquake |
| 2006/3/21-25 [Science/Disaster, Reference/RealEstate] UID:42370 Activity:low |
3/21 Yet Another Useless Motd Poll: .
I own property in California and I:
Have earthquake insurance: ..
\_ My parents own, but I pay the
earthquake insurance in lieu
of rent.
Dont have quake insurance: ...
\_ Insurance is always a ripoff if you can survive without it. And
as most of the value is in the land anyway around here...
\_ If you own a $600,000 home (low for the bay area) and get hit
with $200k in damages, how are you going to survive it? What
if it was a total loss and your house is condemned and red
tagged?
\_ Earthquake insurance deductible is huge (15% of house value
when I last asked). So for your hypothetical $600k house,
the deductible would be $90K. So it's also a question of
your chances of the getting hit with >$90K or <$90K damage.
In the worst case, of course insurance makes sense. But you
really have to look at the potential range of damage to make
a logical decision.
\_ This begs the question: Is the deductible based on property
value or structure value? And if the former, is it
possible to get a policy/deductible for just the structure?
\_ Structure. pp's didn't account for that.
\_ Who said the deductible is 15%? Mine is $30k on ~$850k
house insured for $600k.
\_ let me get this right. You own a home in the Bay Area
that is almost 1 million dollars? Most likely it's
not near the mansion type you see in Texas. Why do
you guys even want to live in the Bay Area to buy
tiny little old beat up home for near 1 mil when
you can live in the life of luxury elsewhere? What
is so attractive about the Bay Area? -tired of Berkeley
\_ What's attractive is that if/when he decides to
leave, he can buy that mansion in Texas if he
wants to. The person in Texas doesn't have the
option of buying even a small house in the Bay
Area if he wants to and probably can't buy the
Texas mansion either. It's about freedom and
about making money somewhere with a high cost of
living to (later) spend somewhere else, if one
so chooses. It's the same reason people immigrate
to the USA and then go retire in their home
countries.
\_ Correct. I live in a 'nothing special' home pretty
close to work that I own a large chunk of. When it's
time, I'm going to sell it, make a bundle, buy a huge
house in a beautiful place elsewhere and still have
tons of cash and retire. My counterpart in Texas is
going to work until he drops.
\_ I don't find having a huge house particularly
appealing. Here I have nice weather, I'm close to
interesting shops and restaurants and good jobs.
Should I trade that to live in a huge tasteless house
out in the suburbs?
\_ Who said you should? You should do what makes you
happy but don't expect anyone else to support you
in your old age. I never said I had a huge house
in the suburbs. I am close to my great job. No,
I'm not in walking distance of interesting shops
but I'm not a consumer either so that doesn't mean
anything to me. Go live on the beach if you want.
It's your life. We all live with the consequences
of our earlier choices and actions. No one has
told you to do otherwise.
\_ You don't consume?
\_ "Every offer of earthquake insurance must provide
coverage for your dwelling, for your personal property
(not less than $5,000 or 10% of the covered dwelling
loss)... CIC Section 10089(b) states that the maximum
deductible that can be charged is 15% of the policy
dwelling limit. It is common for the deductible to be
the maximum 15%."
http://csua.org/u/fbe [<DEAD>www.insurance.ca.gov]<DEAD>
\_ Note the "if you can survive without it" part. We bought
a few years back and could survive an extra 200-300k tacked
onto the mortgage. It would be hard, but we'd survive. And
in the mean time, we've got $10k more in the bank from not
paying earthquake insurance. And, as other posters pointed
out, the deductible _is_ generally huge. -pp |
| 2006/2/15 [Science/Disaster, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:41873 Activity:nil |
2/15 http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20060215/cm_usatoday/relianceongovernmentstallsrebuilding In the era before the Great Society and Social Security, people were independent. Now, they're dependent leeches. Proof that the nigers in New Orleans are lazy and stupid. |
| 2005/10/13-14 [Science/Disaster, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:40073 Activity:low |
10/13 Hi motd, while the press releases are saying shit like "Katrina
floodwaters not as toxic as thought", I'm going to quote from the ACS-
sponsored journal article:
"What distinguishes Katrina floodwaters are their large volume and the
human exposure to these pollutants that accompanied the flood rather
than extremely elevated concentrations of toxic pollutants."
http://pubs.acs.org/cgi-bin/sample.cgi/esthag/asap/html/es0518631.html
In other words, the floodwaters were as shitty and bacteria-laden as
"typical" storm run-off, but this time it's up to your neck as opposed
to something you can hop over at the curb. -Former Chem 1A/B TA
\_ After a month of toxic flood talk, it's just hard to get too
excited over the more realistic appraisal. |
| 2005/9/24-26 [Science/Disaster] UID:39853 Activity:nil |
9/24 NO's flood walls were structurally flawed:
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8038
\_ Well, DUHHHHHH.... |
| 2005/9/22-23 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:39817 Activity:high |
9/22 Ok, so we've established that the nukular option against the
hurricane is lame. How about effective ways to HARNESS the
awsome energy from the hurricane? What are some things that
could be effective? Portable windmills? Wave energy collection?
\_ I'd post my idea for a giant blimp array, but you guys will just
make fun of me.
\_ Think of it like harvasting lightning for power. The key word
is substainability.
\_ Windmills might work if they are rigid enough, since they can work
with other winds when there is no hurricane. Another approach I can
wildly imagine is to build a large array of smaller and somewhat
flexible windmills so that they don't break in a hurricane.
\- given that hurricanes generate more energy than the all of
humanity needs at that moment, how would you store it ... or
would you just run high energy physics experiments durning
hurricanes?
hurricanes? --psb
\_ Pump water from lower ground to higher ground. It's not like
windmills can tap anywhere close to 100% of the hurricanes'
energy output anyway.
\- remind me why were are using hurricane power instead of say
wave power?
\_ I'll remind you that we aren't actually using
either.
\- remind me why were are using hurricane power instead
of say wave power? --psb
\_ No one has developed a working large scale model for
chaging wave power to something more useful. The large
models that have been tested have been very
disappointing.
\_ Somehow, the image of Igor waiting for a hurricane to make
landfall before raising the platform just lacks poetry. -gm
\_ A gigantic propeller! The size of the whole huricane! That
floats along with it! Yeah!
\_ Just use solar power. The amount of energy from sunshine on
a city in a day is about equal to an atomic bomb.
\_ Igor, fetch me an atomic bomb. Or we could just use...
HAMSTER POWER. -John
\_ Lighting rods hooked into your zed-pm.
\_ Just don't ground them into the ocean by accident. |
| 2005/9/22-23 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:39815 Activity:moderate |
9/22 Question for motd:
A day ago I think there was a link explaining the downsides of
using a nuclear bomb to try to disperse forming hurricanes/tropical
storms. I have two questions, does a thermonuclear (fusion) bomb
have the same fallout effects as a nuclear bomb, and two, if not,
wouldn't it be a great solution to the problem? Just go nuke these
things once they achive hurrican status (because there are too many
wussy tropical storms). I'm pretty sure the cost of the bomb would
be offset by the money saved in devastation (62+ billion for New
Orleans anyone?). -mrauser
\_ Pres. Bush has a dream .. where he can just put his finger
on the eye of the hurricane and keep it from spinning..
then it stops.. he wonders if it'll work
\_ What John and people below have said is essentially correct --
it's the fireball from the detonation that irradiates stuff. If
the fireball is close enough to the ground, then the blast radius
is likely reduced, but the effects from radioactive fallout are
greatly enhanced. An airburst is much cleaner (where the fireball
doesn't reach the ground) but has greatly enhanced blast effects.
While air-burst detonating a nuke (hot or cold) in a hurricane
will not produce as much fallout, any dust or other debris will
will not produce much fallout, any dust or other debris will
be irradiated; though compared to a ground-detonated nuke, it's
still largely inconsequential.
\_ You do realise that a fusion bomb NEEDS a fission bomb to
get it going, don't you?
\_ Someone posted this link that explains why it wouldn't work:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html
\_ Aside from the link above, what hubris. The power and energy
involved in a hurricane dwarfs any single nuke, and possibly
the entire US nuke arsenal. We humans are small. Even our
nukes are small.
\_ Trust me when I say that the entire US nuclear arsenal can
do a lot more damage than a hurricane. Can you imagine if
8,000 warheads had hit New Orleans?
\_ 8,000 warheads detonated in the gulf of Mexico wouldn't
have flooded New Orleans
\_ One warhead on a levee would have.
\_ One fertilizer bomb on a levee would have too.
\_ I am not sure I agree with this.
\_ The above link was what I was referring to. I just
wasn't sure if fusion bombs had quite the same fallout effects.
But as I said, we would hit these things when they are tropical
storms, before they are fully developed. -mrauser
\_ The biggest affect to fallout is how close to the ground the
bomb detonates, not the size of the bomb.
\_ True, fallout usually refers to radioactive dirt that
was thrown into the atmosphere. However, the other
kind of fallout is radioactive elements left over from
the fission process. A well made "fusion" bomb will
produce much less of this kind of fallout than a
fission only bomb because the fission core has more
time to complete it's reaction.
\_ Not really. I'd think the contribution of the
fissile/fusion materials are almost irrelevant compared
to the tons of debris that the fireball would loft up
into the air for a ground blast. I think the bigger
issue is the radiation produced by the blast. Fission
generates more of the 'bad particles' that irradiate
stuff -- making for much much more lethally radioactive
fallout in a ground burst. It's not the fissile
material itself, but the stuff it contaminates while
exploding.
\_ Didn't you see that episode of Dungeons & Dragons where
the DM takes a day off and gives his powers to the paladin?
THE WORLD IS A DELICATE BALANCE, MAN!
\_ Best cartoon series ever. Bring it back, please!!
\_ Fusion nukes don't create fallout per se. It's the fission bomb
used to set off the fusion part of a fusion bomb that causes
fallout. -John
\_ Why do you hate hurricanes?
\_ I bet BUD DAY hates hurricanes passionately.
\_ Because the hurricane terrorizes America. It impedes our
freedom and liberty, and limits our rights to cheap oil from
the Gulf. Therefore, we need to launch preemptive attacks
on the hurricane BEFORE it hits the American soil. We
will be resolute until our mission is accomplished.
To the hurricane, I say bring it on, and God Bless. |
| 2005/9/21 [Science/Disaster] UID:39796 Activity:high |
9/21 I know this is a silly question but I'm just wondering what is the
expected behavior of the hurricane when you detonate a nuclear
weapon into the eye of the storm? Does it have any effect at all?
\_ I am amazed by your sense of scale... for a Cal graduate.
\_ Aside from adding energy to the whole storm system and giving
any debris carried by the water heavy radioactive contamination,
no. Hurricanes are pretty large and energetic; I suspect a nuke
large enough to dsirupt a hurricane would likely be so large, that
large enough to disrupt a hurricane would likely be so large, that
the nuke presented a greater threat than the hurricane.
the nuke would present a greater threat than the hurricane.
\_ The hurricane would spread the fallout over a larger area than
if there wasn't a hurricane.
\_ What would you expect to happen? Why do you think a nuke would do
anything?
\_ it would open a stargate...
\_ (another valuable contribution from an alumnus)
\_ And this comment contributes SO MUCH more. Relax man, you're
taking motd waaaay too seriously.
\_ the pressure from the nuke would negate the low of the hurricane,
causing the hurricane to dissipate peacefully. make it so, #1!
\_ the ensign from soda.CSUA needs to be fired out of a photon
torpedo tube
\_ http://haiku.shacknews.com/firecane.jpg
\- we are saving the nukes to put out oil well fires.
\_ We must pre-emptively nuke the arctic wildlife refuge. In this
post-9/11 world, we can't afford to wait until after an oil
well has been built and burns.
\_ http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html |
| 2005/9/21 [Science/Disaster, Recreation/Humor] UID:39795 Activity:very high |
9/21 A clip of last night's Daily Show hurricane coverage.
Extremely funny.
Yes it is streaming, sorry.
http://www.livejournal.com/users/dailyshow_video/82699.html
\_ why watch that instead of http://comedycentral.com?
\_ the lj page is in a much cleaner format. |
| 2005/9/18 [Science/Disaster] UID:39740 Activity:high 66%like:38161 |
9/18 Did anyone feel an earthquake just now?
\_ Nothing major recently:
http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/shake/ca/index.html
\_ Obligatory fat joke.
\_ You mean ob fat yermom joke. |
| 2005/9/14-15 [Science/Disaster] UID:39686 Activity:nil |
9/14 Hey conservatives, do you think this is a perfect place where USGS
can be replaced by private companies that do earthquake research
more cheaply and more effectively? I mean, the federal assisted
USGS is dying, with 30% decline in funding from 1978.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050914/ap_on_re_us/katrina_earthquake_risks |
| 2005/9/14-17 [Science/Disaster, Computer/HW/Drives] UID:39685 Activity:low |
9/14 So, if there's a massive destructive earthquake and all the
buildings on campus are destroyed, does csua have a backup
somewhere off campus? I doubt it. So, basically, soda.csua
might be down for a long long time. Now, suppose this earthquake
strikes the building where the server for yahoo or google is. Do
you think they have a backup off site, so that even in a natural
disaster their email and other services would continue relatively
uninterupted.
\_ Kubi had something like this for personal files. It was part
of his Ocean Store project. One of his greatest fears was
having his PhD thesis run over by a giant truck so the idea
was to distribute your personal data encrypted on peer-to-peer
networks (if you trust your personal data to be stored on p2p).
\_ Heh heh. I'm guessing you're either an undergrad or have never
worked in industry. *giggle* Seriously, though, both companies
definitely have multiple clusters in greatly separated colos. The
reasons for this have as much to do with effiency as they do with
safety/redundancy. I know one of those companies has at least 4:
3 in the US and at least one in the UK.
\_ Although one major corporation (whose name rhymes with Bicrosoft)
did have all of its name servers on the same subnet a few years
back. Just because a company is big doesn't mean its network is
designed intelligently, particularly for companies that were
well-established before the Internet boom. -gm
\_ I've worked for 3 software companies in my time, and 2 of
them kept offsite backups in multiple non-earthquake states,
while the third had (I believe) only one. It's pretty
common practice nowadays, despite the absurdity of other
companies *coughcoughmicrosoftcough*. Two other companies
that I worked for didn't, but then, both of them were 3 or
4 man operations, and backups consisted of me copying
everything onto a cd and taking it home.
\_ soda hall is a fairly new building. and I think soda's
rack is bolted to the floor. Sounds like it might be okay.
\_ You make the assumption that the servers are somehow actually
secured to the rack. Shame on you! - jvarga
\_ Are you a student or an alum? I have no idea who you are.
In case you were/are a stuff, have you been properly
trained and indoctrinated by the alumni? |
| 2005/9/13 [Science/Disaster, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush, Recreation/Travel/Nola] UID:39662 Activity:nil |
9/13 New Orleans: A Green Genocide
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=19418
\_ This is posted by jblack |
| 2005/9/12-14 [Science/Disaster, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:39639 Activity:nil |
9/12 Maybe the Federal response wasn't as slow as we think:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05254/568876.stm
\_ I don't trust the fact-checking ability of someone who writes that
Hurricane Andrew hit in 2002.
\_ Plus the levees broke on Monday, not Tuesday.
\_ "We do not yet have teleporter or replicator technology like
you saw on 'Star Trek' in college between hookah hits and
waiting to pick up your worthless communications degree
while the grown-ups actually engaged in the recovery effort
were studying engineering."
Yeah, I'm sure this "journalist" isn't trolling. -tom
\_ Man I wish there was some technology that allow us to fly in
supplies and troops into places with no airstrips. I've seen
things like that on some SciFi TV shows like MASH.
\_ :-)
\_ And why couldn't they find any choppers, I wonder?
\_ bush had em loaned out to his buddies? |
| 2005/9/5-6 [Science/Disaster, Recreation/Humor] UID:39504 Activity:nil Cat_by:auto |
9/6 HAHAHAHHAHAHAHHA: The Fema Rap
http://www.fema.gov/kids/femarap.htm |
| 2005/9/2-3 [Science/Disaster, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:39464 Activity:nil |
9/2 Christ. It just gets worse and worse.
http://www.nola.com/weblogs/nola/index.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_nolaview/archives/2005_09.html#076355 |
| 2005/9/1-2 [Science/Disaster] UID:39413 Activity:nil |
9/1 Would you rather live in a city which has:
Earthquakes?
\_ Definitely. If it's strong enough to kill you, there's no question.
I don't like advance warning. Tornados/hurricanes have too much
anxiety attached.
\_ I agree. An earthquake only lasts for a few seconds (unless
it's a really bad one), whereas a tornado warning/watch can
last hours. -meyers
Tornados?
Hurricanes?
(famine/droughts)
\_ I'd live in Hawaii
\_ Hawaii will soon have no gasoline
civil unrest?
war?
invaded or occupied by US?
US occupation?
Pollution?
\_ If these are the only factors, I'd like to live in a city with
hurricanes but no earthquakes, where homes are built out of concrete
and routinely withstand strong hurricanes. For example, Hong Kong.
\_ No concrete is going prevent what happened in New Orleans.
\_ Frequent slight tremors and infrequent disasters: . |
| 2005/8/31-9/2 [Science/Disaster, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:39385 Activity:moderate |
8/31 Quick motd list. Hurricane Katrina related songs! I'll start:
Led Zeppelin, "When The Levee Breaks"
Simon and Garfunkel, "Bridge Over Troubled Waters"
Scorpions, "Rock You Like A Hurricane"
Bob Dylan, "Hurricane"
Neil Young, "Like a Hurricane"
Metallica, "The God That Failed"
\_ Now it's more like Water Over Troubled Bridge.
\_ It's more like Water Over Troubled Bridge now.
Scorpions, "Rock You Like A Hurricane"
Bob Dylan, "Rock You Like A Hurricane"
Bob Dylan, "Hurricane"
Neil Young, "Like a Hurricane"
\_ We already have Repent America says the hurricane hit LA (and
MS and AL apparently. God's aim sucks.) because NO was having
the Southern Decadence festival on Labor Day weekend.
Metallica, "The God That Failed"
Tchaikovsky, The 1812 Overture
\_ Why?
Bob Dylan, "Like a Hurricane"
Bob Dylan, "The God That Failed"
Bob Dylan, "Blowing in the Wind"
"Row, Row, Row Your Boat", the last line being "Life is but a dream".
Peter Gabriel, "Here Comes the Flood"
\_ Bob Dylan, right?
\_ It's the kid song:
"Row, row, row your boat,
Gently down the stream.
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is but a dream."
\_ Life is not a dream. -spock
Bob Dylan, "Here Comes the Flood"
Bob Dylan, "Down in the Flood"
Elvis Costello, "Pouring Water on a Drowning Man"
Bob Dylan, "Pouring Water on a Drowning Man"
James Carville, "I am a very wet Cajun"
\_ U2 "Summer Rain"
\_ Bod Dylan, "Summer Rain"
\_ Johnny Cash: "Three Feet High and Rising"
Jars of Clay, "Flood"
\_ Did this Bob Dylan guy have a bad childhood filled with bad weather
or something?
\_ Blob Dylan: Where the Street have no name |
| 2005/8/31-9/2 [Science/Disaster, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:39384 Activity:nil |
8/31 Foamy Squirrel hurricane special: http://csua.org/u/d7k \_ http://csua.org is down. This is exactly why I prefer other superior sites like http://tinyurl.com. http://csua.org simply can't match the scalability and reliability of http://tinyurl.com. \_ Scalability of this type of application isn't really an issue. \_ http://tinyurl.com was down for ~ 3 hours 2 weeks ago in the middle of the day (that I noticed) \_ http://csua.org/u also has: * list of recent and popular links * lists of recent and popular links * rss feed of same * cached copies of HTML pages --dbushong \_ http://csua.org/u doesn't have: * ads \_ This appears to be something available on http://illwillpress.com Why bother with http://csua.org. |
| 2005/7/25-26 [Science/Disaster] UID:38801 Activity:nil |
7/25 Possible location of atlantis found:
http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050718/full/050718-13.html
\_ Don't they say this every couple of years? |
| 2005/6/30-7/1 [Science/Disaster] UID:38373 Activity:nil |
6/30 The USGS is giving a free lecture on Tsunami's at 7 PM tonight.
\_ an apostrophe doesn't
mean "warning! 's' is
coming"
The correct answer is_/
http://angryflower.com/bobsqu.gif
It is at USGS Menlo Park campus on Middlefield, details in the
URL below.
http://www.sjaa.net/pipermail/sjaa-announce/2005-June/000488.html
BTW, If someone attends, could you post a summary? (I want to go
but can't b/c I have class from 6-9 PM). tia. |
| 2005/6/16-18 [Science/Disaster] UID:38161 Activity:nil 66%like:39740 |
6/16 Earthquake!
\_ Chill, it's only 5.3, not going to pop Southern Cal housing the
same way a 7.0 popped San Fernando housing many years ago:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsUS/Quakes/ci14155260.htm
\_ Dude I know, I was exaggerating! |
| 2005/6/15 [Science/Disaster] UID:38134 Activity:nil |
6/14 Magnitude 7.0 earthquake off the CA coast:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2005/usziae
Did anyone feel it?
\_ No, but I'm also 350 miles away.
\_ My parents live about 20 miles North West of Sacramento and
the water in their pool was sloshing back and forth.
\_ There was a tsunami warning. Anyone actually saw the sea water
acting strangely?
\_ I'm not near the coast, but I heard on the news that it
turned out to not be the sort of earth quake that causes
tsunamis. |
| 2005/5/18-19 [Science/Disaster] UID:37743 Activity:nil |
5/18 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7898654 Californians get hourly quake forecasts \_ Just always predict "no quake" and you'll almost always be right! \_ I checked out the chart and the colored regions are, gasp, the faults. \_ except California gets hundreds of quakes a day. \_ A week, yes. A day, no. There's a map on the web showing all the earthquakes in the last week: http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs In the last week, 467 quakes; this is a bit high, due to a swarm of small earthquakes just south of the border. The average used to be about 250-300 a week; since the big quake near Paso Robles, it's gone up to the 325-375 range. |
| 2005/4/20-21 [Science/Disaster, Science/Electric] UID:37274 Activity:kinda low |
4/19 I went to Fry's today and got a new 300W PC power supply. It is 80%
PSU efficient (compared to the industry average of 68%), and 99% PFC
active power correction. Unlike my previous power supply, it is very
cool, and best of all, it is NEAR SILENT! At 22db, the only thing I
can hear is my faint pitched HD. If you ever want a near silent PC,
I highly recommend Seasonic, model Super Tornado (120mm fanpower).
It's a bit costly, at $45, but if you like silence, it is worth it.
\_ Wow, you bought something from Fry's that will actually shutup.
Too bad the same can't be said of their salespeople.
\_ Fry's used to be a cool place when I bought my first PC 15 years
ago.
\_ Thanks. Go to http://silentpcreview.com and click on Power Supplies
for a review of this. I blew > $100 for an Enermax on http://newegg.com
that's a few percent more efficient, 4 dB louder at idle (21dB),
is compliant with the 2.0 whatever, stays on for 2 minutes after
you shutdown (this is good actually), and tops out with more juice.
\_ http://silentpcreview.com/article107-page1.html
\_ Yeah, you happened to buy the quietest, non-passively cooled
power supply EVAR.
\_ 0Mg!!! this d00d r0x! d00d can play Quake without hearing
the annoying fan noise (like it matters). Lame.
\_ I second the Seasonic. I've gotten 3 of 'em (coupla Super Silencers
and a Super Tornado (which, contrary to its name, is actually
quieter than the Silencer)). I highly recommend them. Oh, and they
might be cheaper at Central Computer (Newark & San Jose) |
| 2005/3/28 [Science/Disaster] UID:36916 Activity:nil |
3/28 8.2 Earthquake in Indonesia:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2005/usweax |
| 2005/3/1 [Science/Disaster, Recreation/Humor] UID:36469 Activity:high Cat_by:auto |
3/1 Quantum Sleeper!
http://www.qsleeper.com
\_ Foster, you're dead!
\_ Ha ha! Whoever wants to harm you can just wait outside until you
have to go to the bathroom.
\_ Yes, I hear tornados are very patient.
\_ Tornados can't uproot the whole sleeper?
\_ Look at the list of features fool, it includes a toiletry system!!
\_ Can you turn your excrement into an offensive weapon
from inside the bed? |
| 2005/2/24-25 [Science/Disaster] UID:36406 Activity:high 58%like:36405 |
2/24 If you were on the beach, would you have underestimated the power
of the tsunami as well? Be honest.
http://tinyurl.com/64vfb (sfgate.com)
\_ I think it depends on whether you think about tsunamis as being
a real posibility or not. I've worked where they were a pretty
serious threat(on the Aleutian chain), and they had tsunami warning
alarms and expected people to have "tsunami bags" which they would
bring with them into the hills if the alarm went off. I think
the idea was that they would warn you long before you saw a wave,
though. Of course, for me it was all theoretical, since I worked
on a boat and wouln't have had much of a chance unless we were
either in deep water or tied up at a dock. In my line of work
being flexible enough to kiss my ass goodbye was more usefull
than a tsunami bag.
\_ Since there were no warnings, and since they wouldn't have felt
the earthquake, yeah, i would not have known what i was looking at.
\_ To be honest, yeah, I probably would have. This reminds me of
rant by a black guy saying the white people are so sheltered
that they never expect anything bad to happen to them; so they
don't run in situations like this.
\_ I think another issue is that a lot of these people were visitors
and might just mistake the water going away for a normal tidal
occurrence... whereas if it happened at the beach where you grew
up you'd know to beat a path for high ground.
\_ yeah, all those white people in phuket and sri lanka
\_ You didn't read the article, did you?
\_ Yeah, in Jackass, when they dropped from ceiling dressed
as masked robbers, the black dude in the room ran out
immediately and continued running far far away. The
white guys in the room just stayed, curious to see
what's going on.
\_ This is depressing. It reminds me of The Far Side where the big
python just ate something really huge, and the parrot keeps saying
"Molly wants a cracker. Don't eat me, don't eat me, ahhhhh!
Molly wants a cracker."
\_ I've been camping on a beach when a tsunami warning was issued.
We stuck around and drank beers. Fortunately for us, we only got
a two inch swell. We really lucked out.
\_ were most deaths from the initial impact? Drowning? being swept
to sea? Disease?
\_ No. I know that if the water goes out that fast to run like hell.
\_ which direction? toward the newly formed shore to find
seashells you cannot normally get?
\_ Well, I know now.
\_ If I survive a tsunami because of this, the motd will have
saved my life. That's really scary.
\_ never read _Childhood's End_?
\_ Isn't it the case that if you're around to see the water
rush out, you're pretty much fucked?
\_ Well, you certainly won't outrun the water, but you still
might have time to get to a rooftop or something.
\_ Wave speed was much faster in Sri Lanka (deep water)
than Thailand (shallow water).
There is a story that several minutes warning by a little
girl who learned about tsunamis in sk00l saved several
rich white people on one Thailand resort beach.
\_ WHat heppened to the rigch black people?
\_ I think I would have noticed the water going out, would have
gotten freaked out and started to leave, nervously scanning
the horizon. When I saw the big wave coming, I would have run
like hell. I wouldn't have known to run at the first warning sign,
because I never knew that before, but I am naturally a skeptical
and somewhat paranoid person by nature. I don't know if this
would have been enough, but I would have had a chance. |
| 2005/2/24 [Science/Disaster] UID:36405 Activity:nil 58%like:36406 |
2/24 If you were on the beach, would you have underestimated the power
of the tsunami as well? Be honest.
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/n/a/2005/02/23/international/i185139S54.DTL
\_ To be honest, yeah, I probably would have. This reminds me of
rant by a black guy saying the white people are so sheltered
that they never expect anything bad to happen to them; so they
don't run in situations like this.
\_ This is depressing. It reminds me of The Far Side where the big
python just ate something really huge, and the parrot keeps saying
"Molly wants a cracker. Don't eat me, don't eat me, ahhhhh!
Molly wants a cracker." |
| 2005/1/9-10 [Science/Disaster, Science/Space, Politics] UID:35623 Activity:high |
1/9 What does "run aground" mean? -silly sodan
\_ When a ship or boat goes through water that is not deep enough,
the bottom of the boat, usually the keel, kits the "ground".
Typically the boat was moving forward at the time of impact
and a sudden loss of forward speed produces an uncomfortable
and a sudden loss of forward speed (lurch) produces an uncomfortable
sensation at the least, and damage at the most. Depends
if the bottom is sand or rocks. Big difference..
\_ Thanks. So does subs have sensors to detect these things?
\_ The run of the mill sonars you'll find on commercial fishboats
give a pretty decent image of the bottom of the ocean, and I'm
guessing that a nuclear sub would have something way way
better imaging in all directions, not just along the axis
of travel of the boat. Something or someone fucked up, and
I'm guessing the real story will not be reported in the news.
\_ How funny. I thought the same thing when I read the same news article.
\_ Active sonar maps fairly well. Subs are often trying to run
silent, and active sonar defeats that. They rely on charing
done by surface ships.
\_ In sufficiently deep waters there's a certain depth at
which sound speed stops decreasing with depth (because of
colder water) and starts increasing (because of increasing
pressure). If you put your sub on the bottom side of this
depth it impedes the ability of surface ships to detect you
because the change in sound speeds reflects some of your
sounds back down. If you have a ship running silent (with
their depth-on-keel gague off) and trying to keep under
this fixed depth, you could have a problem if the water is
not too deep and there's a charting error. So... what you
said.
\_ This is a lot of congecture based largely on Clancy novels
and watching Hunt for Red October, but I think the difference
between fishing boat sonar and nuclear sub sonar is that
fishing boats use active sonar and subs try to stay hidden
and use passive sonar. With passive sonar, you would rely
mostly on accurate sea floor maps for navigation. If mis-
calculate speed, heading, or time then you could be off course
enough to hit things you are trying to avoid in tight spaces.
I'm not sure they still use innertial navigation. It definitely
seems plausible. -saarp
\_ I believe they use high freq sonar for getting through
icy regions without giving themselves away. Perhaps
there's something similar they use for keel depth?
\_ How funny. I thought the same thing when I read the same news
article.
\_ what news is this? -- sodan who get all news from the motd
\_ I read it on the front page of cnn yesterday.
\_ Is it something about the South Asia earthquake reshaping seabeds
because it elevated seafloors and the tsunami moved around ships
that sank decades ago?
\- New motto of US submarine fleet: Run silent, Run agound.
How did a sailor get killed? ... flung into something by
sudden deacceleration? |
| 2005/1/7-8 [Science/Disaster] UID:35583 Activity:nil |
1/7 I finally have my answer as for the timeline of tsunami arrivals.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54530-2005Jan6.html
Note that the waves travelling west did so at about 625 mph;
east, significantly slower (because of shallower waters).
Waves hit Thailand at or a little later than they did Sri Lanka.
\_ Any login/password for CSUA?
\_ hobbit@lotr.us, pw: 123456
\_ also refer to http://bugmenot.com for u/p to most news sites
\_ also, if there were a CSUA-specific login (csuamotd/csuamotd),
it probably got fucked with. |
| 2005/1/3-4 [Science/Disaster] UID:35522 Activity:very high |
1/3 Why do people call this tsunami, with est. 150k dead, the worst natural
disaster in known human history? The Tang San (sp?) earthquake in
China killed 650k people.
\_ the only differences is that this particular disaster, a lot of
Europeans fell victim as well. If this tsunami happened in
the April, as cruel as it may sound, no one is going to give
much thought.
\_ i think soviet union uzbekistan have giant quake in 1966
that leveled a city and killed several hundred thousand people
too
\_ I'm still waiting for some of you Christians to start talking about
the Flood.
\_ A plague of locusts in early December, snow in the UAE at Xmas;
these are pretty clear signs. Another Flood, however, is right
out, as G_d promised us the Fire Next Time.
\_ The Black Plague killed 25 million people, is that not considered
a natural disaster?
\_ Criminy! Does it make a difference? Just cough up some dough to help
the people out and worry about this crap when it's actually
important.
\_ I haven't heard worst. I've heard most expensive and I've
heard really bad, but I haven't heard "worst."
\_ Probably because they're ignorant. I, BTW, have not heard
anyone say that. I heard one person ask and get told there was
a typhoon that kill 250K, so this couldn't be the worst.
\_ china has not exactly publisized the giant killer
quake from the 70s.
\_ It is publicized internally and the anniversary was
still remembered. It was also well known internationally
(depending on whom you ask, of course) but no assistance
was requested or given.
\_ Ummm.. Actually, I didn't know about the quake in China,
I was just pointing out that since there is at least one
worse disater in recorded history the tsunami couldn't
possibly be "the worst." In general, I would consider it
ignorant for anyone to make a superlative statment like
"the worst in recorded history" without some serious
research to back it up.
\_ i think you're just splitting hairs and everyone
can agree the christmas day tsunami is going to be
is pretty bad. you can be the annoying guy
at the party who points out that 1 million people
died from anti bacterial infections in ww1 if you want.
\_ Now you're just being stupid. Yes, I probably
wouldn't bother correcting someone at a party. Do
you just have no sense of context or something?
\_ Are you Chinese? Do you have any idea the effect of the
earthquake on China?
\_ You've obviously never served.
\_ you're an idiot. -tom
\_ Stupid?!? I know you are, but what am I?
\_ well, i wouldn't expect joe six-pack to know about the
chinese quake. i would expect a media newsreader to be
backed up by relatively complete research, rather/cbs
not withstanding.
\_ Then you're an idiot.
\_ apparently you don't understand what "expect" means.
i would say that i am an idealist if anything.
\_ If you expect anything remotely like fact checking
from any media figures, you haven't paid attention
over the last decade..
\_ i've often heard people describe it as *one of* the worst. at
150k dead, i'm ok with that description. i don't think i've heard
it described as the unqualified "the worst", which would clearly
be unjustified, as you pointed out. that said, i've noticed
that people tend to have a weak grasp of history and would protray
their current calamities as unprecedented, when they might be even
somewhat trivial in a historical context.
\- in terms of deaths, this disaster is not even close to the
worst in history. or even since 1900. however for "one day"
events, it is pretty high [so, not include famines and other
political disasters [collectivization], wars [verdun] and
epidemics, and genocides [rwanda]. it is also very high in
terms of non-death casaulties ... particularly, the number
of people whose economic prospects are wiped out. --psb |
| 2005/1/1-2 [Science/Disaster] UID:35511 Activity:high |
1/1 10-year-old saves vacationers in Thailand. Only minutes warning
required. http://www.nypost.com/news/worldnews/37579.htm
\_ thanks for that. sad news though, because so many should have
had similar knowledge and saved themselves. another story is
a gypsy group saved because they remembered their elder lore
that "when the sea goes out, it comes back suddenly and in
the same amount" so they fled uphill. a worse shame is that
a Thai official warned of the tsunami risk in 1997 and got
sacked because it was considered an alarmist threat to the
tourism and real estate industry. |
| 2004/12/30-31 [Science/Disaster] UID:35497 Activity:high |
12/30 According to a Chinese website. Thailand's officials heard of the
earthquake Sunday morning but decided not to take action, fearing
that it would affect tourism. A 2002 7.6 quake in Sumatra did
not result in any tsunami, so they thought this one won't be a
problem either.
\_ if they hadn't cut down all the coastal mangrove forests
to build sets for that goddamn movie THE BEACH and built
tourists resorts... ON THE BEACH, maybe casualties would
have been a bit lower. barren sand has a lot more
difficulty absorbing floodwaters than the original jungle.
\_ but there would be more debris like trees hitting
into people and killing them...
\_ Mmm.. flaunting ignorance.
\_ Yeah, I know -- the idea of mangrove trees stopping a
tidal wave is a fuck-stupid notion.
\_ If humans don't reproduce as much, there are less casualties.
\_ fewer
\_ Australian leaders urge citizens to breed more:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4115829.stm
\_ Aussie leaders are rabidly anti-immigration and yet
recognize that they need more people to keep their
economy alive. Solution? Close your eyes and think
of Australia, Sheila.
\_ yes I AGREE!!! I have this theory that if there were less
\_ fewer
people, there would be less conflicts in regard
\_ fewer
to land (sharing land), in regard to religion
(less physical proximity thus contact), less
\_ fewer
resources (oil, food, minerals) to fight for, etc.
However, most of the people I've talked to disagree.
\_ And there would be less people to disagree with you,
too. It's scary that I'm only half joking.
\_ you seriously have know idea of the destructive forces of
30-60 feet of water moving at 50-100 mph. mangroves stopping
it? sand absorbing it? the only ones that survived
were on high ground or lucky enough to be thrown forcefully
to high ground. -alum in thailand (the dry part)
\_ Dear AiT, where are you? Are you on vacation or are you
working? Are you blogging your experiences?
working? Are you blogging your experiences? Genuinely
curious. |
| 2004/12/29 [Science/Disaster] UID:35482 Activity:high |
12/29 How much time elapsed between the first tsunamis hitting Indonesia,
and the first tsunamis hitting Sri Lanka / India? I do realize there
was very little time difference between the earthquake and tsunamis
arriving at Indonesia.
http://csua.org/u/aiy (Washington Post flash graphic)
\_ Aceh province is in a state of civil war, so news was not
allowed out. Thus India and Sri Lanka and Thailand could
not have gotten the news of the disaster there. In fact,
news of the disaster was covered better and earlier in
India, Sri Lanka and Thailand than in Aceh until the last day
or two.
\_ Yes, thank you. I have also rephrased the post to be much less
ambiguous and trollish.
\_ Uhm, huh? Is that grace and courtesy on the motd? I might
have to apologize for harshing on you previously. But...
this... It's the motd. That's not supposed to happen....
eeergghhaaaAAAHHHH!1 BRAAIIINN MELLLLLTIIIIIIINNNNNNG!!!!! |
| 2004/12/29 [Science/Disaster] UID:35467 Activity:high |
12/28 There may have been military ships near the tsunami that will
never be disclosed to civilians. What effect would it have if within
5 miles? Nuclear Submarine? Aircraft Carrier? Would they have been
wasted?
\_ No, tsunamis don't really affect surface or underwater craft.
\_ Yeah, actually it's very difficult for a surface craft (I
don't know about subs, but probably the same) to even notice
a tsunami went by. The boat floats a little higher for a
while, then goes back. A tsunami is amplified when it
reaches shallow water. That's when it becomes dangerous.
\_ Good answer. More at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsunami |
| 2004/12/27 [Science/Disaster] UID:35453 Activity:nil |
12/27 Not trying to be insensitive here, but what exactly is the cause
of death in the Tsunami? I mean the wave hit you, but if you
know how to swim, you can just swim up right? I mean a 20 ft
wave is not THAT tall, I assume people living on islands are
excellent swimmers... I know I am missing something, but what
is it? The force of the wave knocks you unconscious?
\_ Your brain has been classified as small. |
| 2004/11/11-12 [Science/Disaster] UID:34833 Activity:nil |
11/11 How come people in big crowded cities in Japan don't live in high-rise
buildings like those in Hong Kong? First I thought it's because of
earthquakes, but then they already know how to build high-rise hotels
and office buildings in those cities.
\_ 1) Earthquakes. Sure, Japanese engineers can build some amazingly
earthquake-resistant buildings, but those kinds of buildings are
terribly expensive to build, so why use them for housing when you
can charge an arm and a leg for them as hotels? 2) There's actually
more room in Japan per capita than there is in Hong Kong. |
| 2004/9/29 [Science/Disaster] UID:33827 Activity:insanely high |
9/29 Earthquake again! Same time as yesterday.
\_ Isn't that special? They must be warming HAARP up for the election.
-- tin hat brigade
-- foil hat brigade
\_ Must. Drive. West.
\_ Huh? What are you talking about?
\_ Go ahead an pretend ignorance. We all know what you're hiding. |
| 2004/9/28 [Science/Disaster] UID:33801 Activity:moderate |
9/28 Earthquate!
\_ you felt it too? Could it be:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/nc51147892.htm
\_ People in San Mateo and Redwood City felt it.
\_ I wonder if they predicted it:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/research/parkfield
\_ "They" didn't predict it. "They" caused it! - tin foil brigade
\_ I haven't felt a tremor since Loma Prieta. |
| 2004/9/20 [Science/Disaster] UID:33638 Activity:kinda low |
9/20 Downtown Sacramento floods.
http://www.thekcrachannel.com/video/3743191/detail.html
It's classic when one of the witnesses points out, "I think his
Pathfinder took the wrong path!" I feel sorry for that Joe Avilano
guy. Let this be a reminder; don't drive through water--you never can
tell how deep it gets.
\_ For those who don't speak Tagalog: when he tries bailing water out
of the car with his sneaker, his mother calls him an idiot.
\_ He thought he's driving a Hummer H1 with a snorkeling kit. |
| 2004/9/9 [Science/Disaster, Consumer/CellPhone, Recreation/Computer/Games] UID:33436 Activity:high |
9/9 Ali Rahimi's dumb retro phone thing makes it into the NY times
http://nytimes.com/2004/09/09/technology/circuits/09retr.html?8hpib
\_ The bluetooth model would be cooler without the cord.
\_ what's the csuamotd user id and password?
\_ Go Media Whores of the CSUA, Go!
\_ There's some dude in the UK who actually builds cell phones
into old handsets. Can't find the guy's page anymore,
though. They look pretty spiffy. -John |
| 2004/5/9-10 [Science/Disaster] UID:30118 Activity:high |
5/9 Why "10.5" is a load of horseshit:
http://www.earthquakecountry.info/10.5/MajorMovieMisconceptions
\_ did you actually believe the events that occurred in the movie?
or did you think we did?
\_ Of course not. I just found the link amusing.
\_ Some very interesting earthquake facts. Thanks for the
pointer.
\_ Wait, someone actually watched that mini-series?
\_ I wish I did now, just so I could better get all the parodies. |
| 2004/5/6 [Science/Disaster] UID:30065 Activity:high |
5/6 If I run an old Pentium2 without a case, what will happen?
(motherboard with stand-off's, CPU,RAM, video card, nic,
power-supply, hard disk, all sitting on desk.)
\_ It likely won't get proper cooling, since cases are designed
to blow air over the hot parts.
\_ If it's out in the open, it can get good convection all on its
own. If it's in a closed metal box, then you need a case fan.
\_ convection is not the same as circulation.
\_ Don't spill your coffee on it, and make sure the dust doesn't get
*too* thick, and you should be fine. You'll need to keep it
isolated from static shock, and don't touch it without your own
anti-static protection.
\_ What is "static shock"?
\_ Do you know what static electricity is? Amounts of it far
too small for you to feel can fry computer parts. You need to
put the parts on a surface where they won't build up a static
charge. And if you want to touch the parts, you'll need to
make sure *you* don't have a static charge.
\_ That's not true. Most solid state devices have EMS
protection built around the pads, so small amounts of
EMS will not likely destroy a device. Modern day CMOS
devices fail more due to age which may cause SCR latchup
and EMS problems. The point of an anti-static environment
is to prevent large EMS from building up, not to prevent
EMS from happening at all, which would be impossible.
-williamc
\_ Will a grounded power supply dissipate static?
\_ If you have a grounded PS and place everything on an
anti-static surface (such as those anti-static parts
bags, or cotton or felt cloth) you should be OK.
\_ What about cardboard for an anti-static surface?
\_ If unpainted, OK.
\_ Is that why they call it "Fry's Electronics"?
\_ If you already have a PS, you can probably pick up a bare case for
free or $5 off craigslist. Also, the co-op houses have free piles
that often have junker cases in them. Hell, I see stripped cases
on the curb around town every week or two. |
| 2004/3/3-5 [Science/Disaster, Reference/RealEstate] UID:12512 Activity:kinda low |
3/3 I'd like to separate my living room to make it into a room. However
I don't want to put studs+dry walls as my landlord may not like it.
What are other alternatives that gives you good separation (visually
real looking walls vs. paper ones) and is not too permanent? Do they
have thin materials that look good? Thanks.
\_ home depot.
\_ cubicle walls
\_ I like nice Japanese paravans but they don't give you a "real"
wall. -John
\_ I created temporary walls that used a simple system of bolts to stay
\_ I create temporary walls that used a simple system of bolts to stay
wedged into the ceiling without leaving a mark. Email me if you want
details. It worked very well, though I doubt it was earthquake safe.
During the boom, I sublet out the resulting space so that I could
details. It worked very well, though I doubt it was earthquake safe.
\_ Tall cabinets.
manage my own exorbitant rent.
-- ulysses |
| 2003/12/22-23 [Science/Disaster] UID:11564 Activity:moderate |
12/22 Feel the earthquake? San Simeon, 6.5:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/121-35.htm
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsUS/Quakes/nc40148755.htm
\_ Yeah, it was pretty mellow. I thought I was feeling dizzy until I
noticed stuff swinging.
\_ Same here. I thought I was dizzy for about ten whole seconds
before I realized it was an earthquake, because the building
was swinging so slowly (frequency, not magnitude) that it wasn't
like any other earthquake I went through before.
\_ San Simeon is pretty far away. (120 miles or so from San Jose).
\_ It's by Point Reyes.
\_ no. Point Reyes is North of SF. San Simeon
is near San Luis Obispo
\_ no. |
| 2003/3/25-26 [Science/Disaster] UID:27844 Activity:high |
3/25 USAF F-16 heroically avenges RAF Tornado
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,70146-1085069,00.html
\_ The Tornado sucks anyways.
\_ It only killed the radar dish. I expect one-shot-one-kill from
our top pilots. Send that guy back to target training. |
| 2003/2/2-3 [Science/Disaster] UID:27284 Activity:kinda low |
2/2 we've got earthquakes in the east bay this morning :( -suzuki
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/gate/archive/2003/02/02/quake.DTL
\_ felt one of them in SF.
\_ Sunday morning earthquake sex. |
| 2002/10/2-3 [Science/Disaster] UID:26081 Activity:kinda low |
10/2 http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/WTNT33.KNHC Wow.. I feel sorry for anyone in the way of this.... When I was a kid, we got hit by sub-hurricane 85 mph winds which was really scary but didn't do much but break some windows and rip off part of the front door. 135 is going to kill people and cost billions in damage. \_ More indirect costs of global warming.... Hurricanes have always been with us, but now we shall have more. \_ Uhm, no, not really. Thanks. |
| 2001/5/22 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:21318 Activity:high |
5/21 This power crisis shit reminds me of SimCity.
\_ Notice how easy it is to avoid blackouts in SimCity. Just build
enough power plants and you are fine. It's equally easy in real
life...
\_ We need some of W's safe and clean "nucular" reactors.
\_ I know you are being sarcastic, but nuclear power
is the cheapest, safest, cleanest and most environmentally
friendly source of power we currently have. We don't
even need to build too many, just enough to tide us
over until the fusion reactors come on line.
\_ yeah, but there are still these morons who keep complaining
about pollution, godzilla attacks, etc.
\_ that would be cool. we need a huge earthquake and a
godzilla attack. maybe more people will run away to
Austin or Houston. |
| 2000/12/23-27 [Science/Disaster, Politics/Domestic/President/Bush, Computer/Theory] UID:20165 Activity:nil |
12/22 Is the math instructor "Hurricane" Wu mentioned below the same
as the famed but controversial human right activist Harry (Hongda) Wu?
I heard the latter once was at Berkeley.
\_ yes
\_ no
\_ No. Prof. Wu from the math dept. isn't human and therefore has
no interest in human rights.
\_ Harry aka Hurricane used to work at Los Alamos until he was fired
for mishandling his tapes.
\_ Same Wu? The Joy of Lecturing by H. Wu
http://www.math.berkeley.edu/~wu/lecture.pdf
\_ The last man on the planet to write about better teaching. |
| 2000/6/16-19 [Science/Space, Science/Disaster] UID:18487 Activity:high |
6/15 Civil E question (since I'm no expert)/
http://www.mtc.ca.gov/projects/bay_bridge/bbfin.htm
\_ I thought Willie and Jerry nixed this plan.
The western span looks like a normal suspension bridge but what's
with the eastern span? Wasn't the whole premise of the bridge
redesign to make it more earthquake proof. I thought the old
bridge collapsed during the World Series earthquake because it
wasn't a suspension bridge but a regular type. So why is 1/3
of the eastern span supported on cable stays but the other 2/3
not. And why is there a bend in the bridge. What's the point
of making a road bend over water?
\_ I'm sure anonymous cowards on the MOTD know more about
bridge design than the engineers and architects working
on the project. -tom
\_ geez tom, you sound awful bitter.... -mice
\_ I just have little patience for morons. -tom
\_ Then why do you keep reading the MOTD?
\_ When ye berate thy first clueless sodan,
then shall ye know, innocent childe.
\_ He belongs here.
\_ When thou beratest thy first clueless sodan,
then willst thou know, innocent child.
\_ 16th century spelling fixed
-motd archaic grammar god
\_ It didn't "colapse". One of the sections on the top deck fell
down, which is what it's designed to do (be flexible between
single pieces, as opposed to having a big rigid bridge.) That's
what the metal joints that make your car go clickety-clack are for.
Regarding the bridge types, I seem to recall from somewhere that
the western span was build as a suspension bridge, since it needed
to be high enough for large ships to pass under, and that such a
structure is the type that can be that high and long and still be
flexible enough to withstand wind and quakes and stuff. The other
part is that the water under the East span is shallower, so they
could sink more supports into it--look at a cross section of the
Bay floor. Anyway, weren't they supposed to replace the East
span? -John
\_ Isn't it bad to sink too many supports into the water? I
thought you wanted a few strong supports and have the
bridge be very flexible in order to help absorb the shock
of an earthquake.
\_ the water under the east span is shallow but there's
no bedrock after Treasure Island, it's all sediment.
That creates various engineering problems. -tom
\_ Where'd you earn your CE degree? Or are you just
playing one on TV?
\_ I make no claims of being an engineer. I just
happen to know that the lack of bedrock on that
side of Treasure Island is an engineering
problem. -tom
\_ Which is like saying, "I read something in a
newspaper article 8 years ago which was quite
obvious so I thought it belonged on the motd".
\_ Maybe you should, like, you know, read the
fucking thread before you start posting
idiotic non-sequiturs. Since you seem to
need the obvious pointed out to you: tom
was answering someone's question. He was
not farting meaningless noise into the motd
like it meant something -- that seems to be
your gig.
\_ tom does nothing but fart meaningless
noise into the motd. and since when does
tom need an anonymous loser to defend him
from anything? he's been logged on and
could've replied if he cared to. i don't
think 'non-sequiturs' means what you think
it means. (half a bonus point for the
movie title, and another half point for
the character name who first said it)
\_ two constraints, the end points, and a third, treasure island.
\_ Have you driven on the current bridge? It should be obvious that
it's not a straight line from the road leaving the shore at Oakland
into the tunnel through Treasure Island - you have to bend somewhere
before the island, and you want a gradual curve, not a sharp turn
that will become a bottleneck and source of many accidents.
\_ Two other reasons for a bend - they have to build the new
bridge around the old one, since they can't tear down the
old one until the new one is opened, and because not all
spots in the bay to anchor the supports are created equal.
Are you really so stupid you couldn't think of any one of
these three obvious reasons for a bend?
\_ Hello? It's the motd. |
| 2000/6/16 [Science/Disaster] UID:18486 Activity:insanely high |
6/15 Civil E question (since I'm no expert)/
http://www.mtc.ca.gov/projects/bay_bridge/bbfin.htm
The western span looks like a normal suspension bridge but what's
with the eastern span? Wasn't the whole premise of the bridge
redesign to make it more earthquake proof. I thought the old
bridge collapsed during the World Series earthquake because it
wasn't a suspension bridge but a regular type. So why is 1/3
of the eastern span supported on cable stays but the other 2/3
not. And why is there a bend in the bridge. What's the point
of making a road bend over water?
\_ I'm sure anonymous cowards on the MOTD know more about
bridge design than the engineers and architects working
on the project. -tom
\_ It didn't "colapse". One of the sections on the top deck fell
down, which is what it's designed to do (be flexible between
single pieces, as opposed to having a big rigid bridge.) That's
what the metal joints that make your car go clickety-clack are for.
Regarding the bridge types, I seem to recall from somewhere that
the western span was build as a suspension bridge, since it needed
to be high enough for large ships to pass under, and that such a
structure is the type that can be that high and long and still be
flexible enough to withstand wind and quakes and stuff. The other
part is that the water under the East span is shallower, so they
could sink more supports into it--look at a cross section of the
Bay floor. Anyway, weren't they supposed to replace the East
span? -John
\_ two constraints, the end points, and a third, treasure island.
\_ Have you driven on the current bridge? It should be obvious that
it's not a straight line from the road leaving the shore at Oakland
into the tunnel through Treasure Island - you have to bend somewhere
before the island, and you want a gradual curve, not a sharp turn
that will become a bottleneck and source of many accidents. |
| 1999/10/17 [Science/Disaster] UID:16719 Activity:nil |
10/16 magnitude 7.0 earthquake in so cal. no one cares. |
| 1999/10/1-2 [Science/Disaster] UID:16641 Activity:kinda low |
10/1 Taiwan earthquake: 7.6, killed 2000 people
Mexico earthquake: 7.4, killed 15 people
WHAT THE FUCK?
\_ The scale is exponential, plus shoddy construction in Taiwan.
\_ Not to mention the area of Mexico that was hit was more flat
and less densely populated.
\_ God has it out for those Taiwanese people.
\_ Should add: Turkey earthquake: 7.6, killed 15,000 people. |
| 1999/8/23-24 [Science/Disaster] UID:16374 Activity:nil |
8/22 Help the USGS determine how strong last week's earthquake was felt in
your part of the Bay Area (or if you were around 10 years ago, what
you remember of Loma Prieta):
http://www-socal.wr.usgs.gov/shake/STORE_2/X40104152/ciim_form.html |
| 1999/8/10-11 [Science/Disaster, Computer/Networking] UID:16284 Activity:kinda low |
8/10 Anyone know a good resource about IRC hacking? We had a server
hit pretty hard by some punkass. Would be nice to find out how
to block spoofed-ip flood atacks. Thx.
\_ Call your ISP. prepare to be ignored. When they flood you
\_ Source Address Verification. And sign your name when you delete
people's advice.
\_ Call your ISP. prepare to be ignored. When the bad guys flood you
enough to overwhelm your upstream link, you must sit down and
take it like a man. -ERic |
| 1999/2/10-11 [Science/Disaster, Computer/Networking] UID:15395 Activity:moderate |
2/10 What is a "SYN Flood"? I keep getting a SYN Flood warning on
/var/log/messages from this weird IP. Is it bad?
\_ I remember an option on the Linux kernel called SYN_COOKIES
which supposedly issues some kind of challenge and prevents
denial of service attacks. Don't know much about SYN floods
myself other than someone is intentially trying to get your OS
to panic.
\_ I think the idea behind SYN cookies is that you send a
random number to the computer requesting the SYN, and they
have to send it back before the connection can continue.
I don't think that it can directly prevent SYN flooding,
(other than scaring off the flooder) but at least you'll
know the real address that's doing the flooding. - mikeym
\_ That means that someone is trying to saturate your machine with
connections to use up lots of resources. It is bad. - mikeym
\_ The flooder creates a bunch of half-open connections till
your data structure for holding half-open connections is full
and you can no longer accept any new connections. TCP
normally has a 3-way handshake: SYN, SYN-ACK, ACK. Client
sends initial SYN, server responds with SYN-ACK, and client
should send back an ACK. In a synflood the client never
sends the last ACK. --sky
\- we do a lot of syn flood detection. probably somoem's fucked
up tcpstack, but if it is a "rando," ip address you dont do much
business with, might be someone scanning you to see what services you
are running. see if any other addresses on the subnet got hit. --psb |
| 1998/12/4-6 [Science/Disaster] UID:15070 Activity:kinda low |
12/4 Was there an earthquake?
\_ Yes. It was a 4.1 at 415am centered around El Cerrito.
\_ finger -l quake@quake.geo.berkeley.edu
http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html
\_ An aftershock at 730am in Bekreley!
\_ No. Linda Tripp landed in Oakland airport this morning.
\_ No, that was yer mom fartin'.
\_ If that had happened all the buildings in Oakland would
have collapsed. |
| 1998/8/13 [Science/Disaster] UID:14448 Activity:nil |
8/12 I find quakes to be very good alarm clocks. If only I could
schedule them for 7am everyday.
\_ Same here. I could never wake up around 7am until today.
\_ how on earth does a tiny earthquake wake you up?!
\_ Oh...this "tiny" earthquake is the one that created big
crack on hwy 101 this morning?
\_ It was pretty good quake. It set off some of the car alarms
on my street.
\_ was it felt in berkeley at all?
\_ well, a passing Harley will set some car
alarms off too...
\_ What quake? --didn't feel a thing
\_ How about 5.4 quake hitting south B.A.?
\_ I didn't either. What area was it hitting?
\_ check out http://www.sjmercury.com for details. Front
page headline. |
| 1994/1/17 [Science/Disaster] UID:31452 Activity:nil |
1/17 Giant Earthquake in Los Angeles. 6.7 or so on the scale, major
damage, centered in the San Fernando Valley two miles or so from
Northridge.
\_6.6 Worst damage is around Sylmar and Hollywood.
fires in the Valley. It was the biggest earthquake I've ever
been in...
\_telnet oes1.oes.ca.gov 5501 for the latest from the Governor's
Office of Emergency Services
\_ at 4:31 a.m. 15 confirmed casualties so far--half from
heart attacks, some from highway accidents, some from
apt. building sitting on/near epicenter. Phone lines to
SoCal closed to LD calls -jctwu
\_ As of 13:05, 26 confirmed dead. Many aftershocks (7 large ones)
A couple of collapsed apartment buildings. I-5, I-14, hwy 118
shutdown. Santa Monica Fwy buckled. A couple of collapsed
overpasses slides.
\_ How did UCLA do in the quake? Anyone know?
\_ They're better off than CSUN which got hit pretty badly.
\_ It seems that http://seas.ucla.edu is down......The Valley will
be in bad shape tomorrow if anyone tries to go to
work..all but one of the freeways are closed....good thing
this didn't happen on a late weekdy afternoon while everyone
is trying to get home, like the Loma Prieta one.
\_ Over 600,o00 people still have no power.
\_ More place to find news:
trn la.general alt.current-events.la-quake
irc #earthquake
lynx http://www.seas.upenn.edu/~mengwong/irc.quake.txt |
| 11/22 |