1/17 Bond insurers go foom. MBI/ABK down 31%/51% respectively.
\_ What is this, Bloomberg?
\_ are you kidding? we're better than that.
\_ Geez, just http://finance.google.com, you can see it.
\_ I think he's asking why lame financial headlines are
being posted here.
\_ Yes, exactly. If you want to start a disucssion about the
state of the economy, that is fine, but up to the minute
stock ticker info is not going to do it.
\_ Oh, I'm pretty sure this is housing bust gloating. -pp
\_ As I explained to my desperate-renter-wants-to-be-a
-home-owner-waiting-for-big-housing-bust coworker:
As a home owner I don't care at all what housing
prices do except on two days: the day I buy and the
day I sell. All the ups/downs in between mean
nothing to me.
\_ That's fine, but it's obvious your co-worker DOES
care, because he wants to buy, and wants a good
deal. So why even say this to him?
\_ Because he's an ass.
\_ You have it backwards. The guy was
sending gloaty email links and smothering
lunch chats with bad housing news smirking
at the home owners. I simply explained to
him the way I and likely many other home
owners view the ups and downs of housing
prices. Are you one of the bitter-renters?
\_ I'm a renter who wants to be a home owner, but
do not yet know much about owning a home. Does
the housing price fluctuations affect your
property tax? (Don't you pay a percentage of
increase in value? What about if the value
decreases?) Also, I'd imagine it would matter
if you ever need to take out a new load against
your home. Feel free to clue me in.
\_ In CA, price fluctuations aren't really an
issue because of Prop 13. If valuations
fall below the assessed value, then yes
your tax can be lowered. However, since
increases are capped at 1% per year and
the rate of appreciation generally is more
than that, it is rare that homeowners worry
about it. It is safe to assume that your
property tax is ~fixed here in CA. Other
states do things differently.
\_ I would not be surprised to see Prop 13
modified in the next decade.
\_ No one is going to push to have other
people's taxes raised. If anything they
will push to have their own lowered. But
I seriously doubt anyone really has any
clue what their neighbors are paying
anyway so this whole line of thought is
just silly. What are your neighbors
paying in property taxes? Do you know?
\_ Yes, I know. Just look on
http://propertyshark.com. People push to have
other people's taxes raised all the
time, you just aren't paying attention.
What do you think Hillary's campaign
promise to raise the top rate to 39.6%
is?
\_ I would. Homeowners are a big voting
block. Who would vote to change it?
\_ Everyone who bought a home after 1999,
once they realize they are paying 10x
in taxes than the neighbor who bought
in 1977, for the same services. I don't
think it will go away, just reindexed
to inflation, not inflation minus 1.
\_ They won't ever know what their
neighbors are paying. And if the
taxes hurt that much they'll want
theirs lowered, not their
neighbor's raised.
\_ That's how it works. You pay
more today to get a break in
the future when you are
(presumably) retired. I don't
have a problem that my
neighbor who moved here in the
1940s pays less tax than I do.
He bought his house for less,
too. I can't worry about that.
\_ Nobody cares if they paid less
when they bought the house.
That's just pure strawman.
\_ You can worry about whatever you
like. My neighbors on each side
own many rental properties. Even
combining them all, they probably
pay less in property taxes for
much more city services than I do
Why should these multi-
millionaires get subsidized by
everyone else? In the long run,
taxes should keep up with
inflation (or even GDP), unless
you want service levels to fall,
which is what has happened to
CA over the years. The voters
are slowly coming to realize
this fact.
\_ Ah here it is: class warfare
jealousy and envy. They pay
less because they were smart
enough to get in early. You
are now locked in at your
current rate and your future
neighbors will want to know
why you pay less than them.
Think your taxes should rise
to their level just as you're
retiring?
\_ If property tax exists for
a reason, then it should
be raised if it needs to
be raised. I don't see
how you justify your
position. If you extend
the idea into the future
for all possible market
scenarios you see that it
is unsustainable. The
focus should be on keeping
the overall rate low, not
arbitrarily locking rates.
Capping the amount it can
rise per year would seem
prudent, but not making
that 0. It's not just
about fairness but market
efficiency: in my
experience people become
really "attached" to their
low tax rates.
\_ We effectively cap
property tax rates
because people should
not be taxed out of
their homes. This is
still the U.S. the last
I checked where the
people are more
important than
government revenue. If
the gvt needs more $$$
they should cut the
pork and increase
efficiency. I've
worked for both state
and federal gvt for
many years. There is
tons of room for pork
cutting. They make
large corps look like
models of efficiency.
\_ No, they pay less than me
because they were born a
generation earlier than me,
and then rigged the game in
their favor, not because they
were "smarter," as you claim.\
Property taxes should pay for
the city services required
to support them. Consistently
charging less than inflation
guarantees that this cannot
happen. Why should others
have to pay the tax burden
shifted to them? Who should
pay taxes instead of the
homeowner? Streets, schools,
police and fire protection
are not free. And even if you
did cut city services, the
anomaly of early owners
gaming the system in their
favor still remains. Why do
mostly wealthy older home
owners deserve a tax break at
the expense of everyone else?
I think the idea of a tax
break for an owner occupied
residence with a low income
senior citizen in it is great
but this not what Prop 13
does.
That's still not an argument for prop 13. Cut _/
pork, great, benefit everyone. So what.
\_ Prop 13 only caps property tax rates if you
hold on to the house. If you sell, which
most people do, the rates catch up. Property
tax revenues are plenty high and do a job
tax revenues are plenty high and do a good
job of beating inflation. BTW, it's easy to
find out what your neighbor pays for tax if
you want to know. Why should you care?
Should a family of eight pay more property tax
than a single homeowner? They use more services.
It really sucks to live in a state where the
tax is not capped. In many states property
values doubled or tripled in the last few
years. Would you like your tax to go from
$3K to $9K a year just because speculators
are moving the market? How can anyone plan
and budget for that? It has nothing to do
with the cost of services tripling either.
No, I think CA got it right. If the state
needs more revenue then tax income.
\_ Adjusting Prop 13 so that property taxes
go up with inflation after purchase, instead
of inflation minus one, would not cause
of two percent a year, would not cause
anyone's tax to go from $3k to $9k in one
year. Go fight that Straw Man somewhere else.
\_ Whose definition of inflation and why?
They are already keeping up with inflation.
$10.3 BB before Prop 13 = $35 BB in 2006.
(calculated from CPI).
Actual amount collected in 2006 = $38 BB
From Howard Jarvis:
"Despite Prop 13's restrictions,
today's government in California
collects the same 16% of personal
income in taxes, fees and assessments
that it collected before Proposition
13 passed. Today, the government in
California collects and spends per
capita in constant dollars -
that is, incorporating population
growth and inflation growth -
more than it taxed and spent per
capita in 1978."
What has changed is the distribution
of taxes:
1977:
Schools: 53%, Counties 30%, Cities 10%,
Other 7%
2006:
Schools: 38%, Counties 26%, Cities
18%, Other 18%
Any homeowners, like Tom, who feel
they aren't paying enough property tax
are free to write a check out for
more. It's easier to steal money from
other people instead, though.
\_ Right and all you have done is steal
money from other taxpayers to reward
homeowners for voting for you. The
overall tax burden is the same, it has
just shifted away from property tax, to
one that is less reliable (mostly
sales and income). Jarvis lies with
statisics, btw, since the per capita
inflation adjusted property tax burden
has gone down. You forget the per capita
part in your calculation there. Here,
\_ Presumably the increase in
population is a major driver in
"inflation" so it is accounted for.
\_ No.
I will present you with a logic problem:
Since the overall state spending per
person has stayed the same since 1970
\_ So why are the State's infrastructure
and schools falling apart? Sounds
like poor spending decisions. IOW,
where's the problem then if
there's plenty of money already?
Why abolish Prop 13 to give the
government more?
\_ That is a good question, but
Prop 13 doesn't have anything
to do with it. "Three Strikes
You're Out" is one reason.
You're Out" is the biggest reason.
The State is spending much more
on prisons that it used to. The
rest of the answer is not worth
going into as a tangent on the
motd. You abolish Prop 13 to:
1) eliminate the boom/bust that
goes depending on revenue
so closely aligned with the
business cycle and
2) shift the tax burden back to
the users of the services
where it belongs, instead of
poor schmuck third party
\_ What poor schmuck third
party is that? Everyone
uses the services. As
for boom/bust, I think
abolishing Prop 13 is
the wrong way to go
about that. You know
that what will happen
is that everyone will
pay higher property
taxes and overall burden
will also go up,
because the State can't
stop spending like
drunken sailors.
\_ I already established that
per capita real spending
has been constant, so give
up with the drunken
sailors theme already. I
would prefer to see other
taxes, like sales tax, go
down as property tax went
up.
\_ Where is your evidence
that the State spends
like drunken sailors?
As best as I can tell,
inflation adjusted per
capita spending has been
near constant, with a dip
after 1977, but then an
increase in the 90s, so
that we are back to where
we were in 1970 (and less
as a percentage of GDP,
the traditional way to
measure tax burden).
we were in 1970.
link:preview.tinyurl.com/386grn
(PDF)
\_ We are spending
the same, but doing
less with it. If
we had to do as
much as before,
then we'd have to
spend a lot more.
That's why people
want to raise
taxes - the
amount of money
we used to spend
isn't cutting it.
My solution is to
figure out what
we're blowing
money on and stop
it. Then we won't
have to choose
between services
and high taxes.
Throwing more
money at the
problem is not a
solution. Revenues and
expenditures are same
as ever and yet the
infrastructure is
deteriorating. The
Throwing more money
at the problem is not
a solution. Revenues
and expenditures are
the same as ever and
yet the infrastructure
is deteriorating. The
problem is we're not
spending where we need
to, not that property
taxes ar too low.
taxes are too low.
\_ While you're busy trying to
prove that it's better for
people if you tax people
instead of corporations, why
don't you also try to prove
that US corporations don't
benefit from the public
education system. -tom
\_ I'm just responding to
the person who wants
to tax based on
services used. A single
person also benefits
from public education,
but where do you draw
the line on which
services you use and do
not use? Therefore,
it's better to just
charge everyone (including
corporations) the same.
(in real dollars) and the proportion
of tax revenue from property tax has
declined, then the per person amount
of (real) property tax has _____.
A) Declined
B) Increased
C) Can't tell from information provided
D) I don't know
\_ Q: Why should we care? A: because we pay tax.
S: most people sell A: not if they can help
it because after a while that tax base is too
big of an economic advantage to pass up, so
it dicks with normal market forces. My family
benefits a lot from prop 13 but it also
complicates things because it adds this weird
disincentive for them to sell their property.
They just hang on to stuff because they are
more profitable for rentals. I hate when gov't
tax schemes dick with markets.
Q: like your tax to go from $3K to $9K a year
A: There are many ways to prevent someone's
tax going 3-9k in 1 year besides locking their
tax base completely.
\_ It's not locked. It adjusts 2% per
year plus whatever happens from sales.
That seems reasonable. If you are in
favor of a cap you are in favor of
Prop 13 and the only question is what
the cap is. Most states have no cap at all.
\_ What the cap is makes a huge difference.
2% beats inflation, so in some place
where the home market was flat the base
goes down in practical terms. 10% would
basically be acceptable to me. I'm not
really in favor of a cap, I'm just
saying I wouldn't really complain if
it was at least matched to inflation.
\_ I am actually in favor of a cap, because
I can see the advantage of giving
homeowners more predictability over their
tax bill. But it should be inflation and
I think it should be retroactively
adjusted back for homeowners since 1978.
Okay, I know the latter will not happen.
\_ The real scam of Prop 13 is that it was sold
to people based on the story of the aging
grandmother taxed out of her too-valuable
house, but the major dollar beneficiaries
are corporations, who own more valuable
real estate and turn it over less often. -tom
\_ To prevent corporations from getting any
tax benefits we should make sure to put
all the people on fixed incomes into the
streets. Great plan. Very humanitarian.
Perhaps you have a newsletter to which I
can subscribe?
\_ nice strawman. Hint: You could have
a law that taxes corporations
differently than homeowners. -tom
\_ Then again corporations are not
sending kids to school or using public
services to the extent that private
parties do when compared to property
parties due when compared to property
valuations, plus corporations provide
jobs which increases the tax base.
Corporations pay plenty of tax as it is.
Corporations play plenty of tax as it is.
If you make the business environment
more unfavorable to corporations then
you also hurt individuals, most of
whom work for corporations and pay
property taxes out of their earnings.
\_ That's an ideological stance not
backed by any real proof.
\_ Proof that corporations don't send
kids to school? They are paying for
a service they don't directly use.
Please explain why corporations
should pay a different property
tax rate from individuals. What
about a property that switches
from commercial to residential
and back? It's silly to base
property taxes based on use,
unless the use causes for instance
some egregious environmental harm.
Corporations pay plenty of
dollars in taxes as it is, but
they get swept under the rug
because they are "payroll taxes"
when people like to focus on
income taxes. How about we don't
tax earnings and then dividends,
too?
\_ The assertion that it's better
for people if you tax people
instead of corporations is
unproven and unsupported by
evidence. I would argue that
it's silly to cap property tax,
but if you're going to use
Grandma's House as an emotional
argument for Prop 13, it makes
no sense to give corporations
the same tax break as Grandma.
-tom
\_ Maybe grandma is a shareholder.
You have the mentality
that it's okay to screw
over corporations because
they are faceless entities, but
the reality is that we are all
shareholders and customers
of corporations. When you
raise tax on corporations
then who do you think will
pay for that? It's not
like money gets magically
created. Now, I do agree
that one major difference
between a corporation and
a person is that the
corporation will live forever
and never has to transfer
property if it doesn't
wish to. (It would be nice
to know how often this
really happens.) So maybe
corporate property tax can
reset after some period of
time (e.g. 99 years)?
\_ Who will pay for it? The
corporation. That's why
you tax them. Taxes placed
on corporations don't come
directly out of people's
pockets any more than
taxes placed on people
come directly out of
corporations' pockets.
Chevron had $17 billion in
profit last year; you
really think it needs to
be protected from property
taxes? -tom
\_ The corporation will
pay for it with the
dollars its
customers pay, which
will probably be a
regressive tax in a
lot of instances.
You don't think
Chevron isn't going
to try to pass the
costs along to its
customers? While it may
not be successful in
doing so, you're deluded
if you think they
are just going to
take the money out
of profits (which
also affects investors
like you and me and
probably everyone
with a pension and/or
401k). Or Chevron might
trim costs by laying
off employees.
Whatever happens,
you are redistributing
wealth from Chevron's
customers to the State.
You think this is a
good thing when the
State's budget is as
healthy as it has
been over the past
35 years?! Throw
more money at the State?
\_ Your connection to
reality is strongly
correlated with my
interest in continuing
this discussion.
Goodbye. -tom
\_ The State's budget is
healthy?
\_ Yes, the State
just has a
problem living
within it.
/
If your income jumped up and then
went down year to year, it might
be hard to adjust to it.
\_ Oh please. What the State does is spend every
dime the minute there is a surplus.
\_ http://csua.com/2007/10/31/#48495
\_ I hope this is a lame financial headline and that's it -op |