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| 5/25 |
| 2008/7/29-8/3 [Politics/Domestic/California, Reference/BayArea] UID:50720 Activity:nil 90%like:50716 |
7/29 Swami! Your prediction is off by 6 months!!! You SUCK
http://preview.tinyurl.com/6opb7h [cnn]
\_ Wow San Francisco went UP by 22%. How about San Jose, Sunnyvale,
Mountain View, Santa Clara, etc?
\_ Fuck SF. Let them pay for their own stupid bridges.
\_ Based on the for sale flyers I see, prices in the parts of
SJ near Cupertino/Saratoga have gone up slightly from January.
\_ This is a typo. "SF" for Case Shiller means SF MSA, which is
SF, CoCo and Alameda counties.
SF, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and CoCo counties.
\_ What is the peak of this graph?
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2007_09_01_archive.html -GS |
| 5/25 |
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| preview.tinyurl.com/6opb7h -> money.cnn.com/2008/07/28/real_estate/another_home_price_dip/index.htm?cnn=yes It was the 22nd consecutive month of decline recorded by the index. Prices fell 09% from April to May Each of the 20 metro areas covered by the index posted annual declines; nine posted record lows and 10 cities recorded double-digit drops. Both the 10-City Composite Index and the 20-City Composite Index are reporting record annual declines. "Since August 2006, there has not been one month where we have seen overall price increases, as measured by the two Composites," said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. Losing streak Case-Shiller has been tracking the 20-city index for 19 years, while the 10-city index is 21 years old. The current streak of price declines has been unprecedented in both its length and depth. The last extended decline began in in April 1990, when the 10-city index sank for 10 consecutive months. The 20-city index's Sun Belt cities, which recorded the biggest price gains during the boom, have led the charge down. Midwest metro areas, which have endured tough economic times for years, are also feeling the pain. Northeast cities like Boston, down 62% for the 12 months, and New York, off 79%, have been less volatile than the Sun Belt. The smallest year-over-year declines were recorded by Charlotte, NC (down 02%), Dallas (down 31%), and Denver (down 48%). soaring numbers of foreclosures are helping to push down prices. Banks tend to slash prices when selling repossessed homes, since they lose money every month a house sits vacant. They must pay property taxes, maintenance expenses and utility costs while getting nothing back in return. Those sales, in turn, tend to bring down prices in the rest of a given neighborhood, creating a vicious cycle. Foreclosures accounted for a large - and growing - share of all existing homes sold in some markets. In California, for example, 40% of the existing homes sold during the three months ended June 30 were foreclosures, according to DataQuick, a real estate information provider. Rays of light Optimistic observers might point out that price declines appear to be slowing. The 10-city index's 1% month to month dip in May was less than April's, when it registered a 15% decline, while the 20-city index fell just 09% in May after dropping 13% in April. But that 09% dip repeated over 12 months would result in an annualized rate of 13%, according to Dave Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. Still, it's an improvement over the rate of decline from Jan. "There's still strong downward movement," he said, "but it's not as rapid as earlier in the year." "The smaller price decline in May suggests, provides a first hint, that conditions may start improving," said Mike Moran, the chief economist for Daiwa Securities America. "If you look at home sales data, they're starting to stabilize," he said. "Some potential buyers have decided to step back into the market. I don't think the correction is over but the tone is improving." Lawrence Yun, the usually optimistic chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, pointed out that in places like Las Vegas and Phoenix, where drastically lower prices have led to an uptick in sales volume, conditions may be stabilizing. But Patrick Newport, an economist with Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm, thinks there are more hard times ahead. He points out that seasonal variations may account for what appears to be a slowdown in the pace of the May decline. "What I look at is the Census Bureau's inventory of vacant homes on the market. Historically, vacant homes have made up about 17% of housing inventory. "What's worrying me is that foreclosures are adding to inventory, and the inventory numbers tell you what to expect for the next couple of years," says Newport. And Yun expresses concern over mortgage rates, which have been on the rise. Higher rates can cancel out more affordable prices by increasing monthly mortgage payments. new housing rescue bill that just cleared Congress over the weekend may help, however. "The tax credit for first-time home buyers will offset the slight rise in mortgage rates," he said. Confessions of a subprime lender In his new book, author and ex-lender Richard Bitner owns up to some of his worst mistakes, offering an inside look at how his firm issued bad mortgages. Business Leader Council Live Quotes automatically refresh, but individual equities are delayed 15 minutes for Nasdaq, and 20 minutes for other exchanges. Market indexes are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes for Nasdaq, and 20 minutes for other exchanges. |
| bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2007_09_01_archive.html Washington, DC Down Big Time Price continue to fall in the vast majority of bubble markets across the United States. The tighter lending standards, large inventory, weaker home sales are pushing prices down. "Values dropped 39 percent in the 12 months through July, steeper than the 34 percent decrease in June, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index. The index declined in January for the first time since the group started the measure in 2001, and has receded every month since then. Stricter lending standards and reduced demand are prolonging the housing slump, now entering its third year. Prices may continue to fall as homes stay on the market longer, economists said. Diminished housing wealth may spur households to pare spending, hurting economic growth. The housing slump doesn't seem like it will go away any time soon,'' said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, who forecast the index to drop 41 percent. As far as consumers go, this is another sort of pall over'' their ability to borrow against the value of their homes, he said. With the the monthly price declines accelerating from earlier this year. David Lereah, the fully discredited, former chief economist of the National Association of Realtors shot back at the housing bears who in his mind were also wrong. "And they were wrong for four years and they only became right at the end of 2004." He and his former employer had been criticized for the optimistic forecasts they made during the boom. September 23rd) Sure, some of the bears predicted the boom would end much sooner then it did. But, it is also true that many of the bears correctly pointed out that in 2002 some housing markets were already in a a bubble. Just because the bubble continued to grow, does not negate the reality that certain housing markets were already bubblicious. Question For Ben Bernanke Last week the Federal Reserve Board had a 50 basis point cuts in the Fed funds. Since cheap debt was a significant contributor to our current economic problems, how will more cheap debt help our economic problems? JIM LEHRER: Because interest rates were down, it was easier to buy a house? ALAN GREENSPAN: Well, yes, I think it did boom too much. I mean, we're the vaunted Federal Reserve, but this global force was suppressing us. We actually tried in 2004 to get mortgage interest rates up and to put some sort of clamp on the extent of the housing boom, and we failed, because usually when we move short-term interest rates up, which is what the Federal Reserve does, long-term rates go with it. Had we done it back in 2002, there's no doubt in my mind nothing would have happened. And as a consequence, we and, in fact, every other central bank could not confront this issue. And what I'm increasingly beginning to conclude is, when you get bubbles like this, there is no way of diffusing them until the speculative fever breaks on its own. We tried numbers of things, and other people tried numbers of things. According to economist Martin Feldstein, "The falling dollar and rising food prices caused market-based consumer prices to rise by 46% in the most recent quarter." Bernanke Cuts by 1/2 The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 4-3/4 percent. Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time. This is located in the metropolitan Washington, DC area. Property Bought from Original Owner: 10/13/2005 $661,000 Price Reduced: 02/18/07 -- $699,000 to $689,000 Price Reduced: 03/30/07 -- $689,000 to $680,000 Price Reduced: 04/16/07 -- $680,000 to $669,000 Price Reduced: 05/09/07 -- $669,000 to $659,000 Price Reduced: 06/05/07 -- $659,000 to $639,990 Price Reduced: 08/01/07 -- $639,990 to $629,990 Price Reduced: 08/07/07 -- $629,990 to $619,990 Please note this property was bought originally from the developer for 279,915 on 06/21/2000. So in about 5 years the property went up 136% for a sale of 661,000 in late 2005. If it had appreciated by 6% a year (compounded) the price would be 375K in 200 late 2005. If that theoretical 6% had continued for another two it would be valued at 421K today. However, the price it is being offered at is 619,000 or 47% more then the 421K value if the value had increased 6% a year for the next 7 years from its original year 2000 price. The owner keeps lowering the price, but cannot catch up to the falling market (knife). Lawrence Yun Spins Pending Home Sales Lawence "spinner in chief' Yun is at it again. He is busy spinning large declines in the National Association of Realtors' index of July pending sales of existing homes. The housing market in many parts of the US is undergoing large price declines, falling construction starts and lousy sales. Mr "Spinner in chief' Yun is a paid shill who cannot be trusted. |