www.techcrunch.com/2008/02/22/facebook-fatigue-visitors-level-off-in-the-us -> www.techcrunch.com/2008/02/22/facebook-fatigue-visitors-level-off-in-the-us/
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:31 am "I suspect the facebook / myspace / fill-in-the-social-nework-blank chart will be pretty close to the AOL chart as time goes on." Social networking is becoming decentralized now more than ever before and the niche sites aren't worth a whole lot. I think that the whole thing with the facebook fund, the advertising platform, ect... I think a lot of people left because they didn't follow through on a lot of what they said.
the summer break traffic decline is normal and the dip last month also seems to coincide with the winter break. I know FB has expanded well beyond colleges I'd still bet that the majority of its active daily traffic are from high school and college students.
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:47 am Social networking will not die. For many it serves a purpose - keeping in contact with friends or a group of interests. However, many are out there just to spend time, with no real or useful purpose and they will be the ones who will be or already are getting bored with it.
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:51 am The clock is ticking for a monetization model. My favorite posts on TC are the excuses (ie winter breaks)...... I would argue that kids would spend more time because they are not attending classes and have more time to fart around. My nephew who uses MySpace was spending more hours on the website during Christmas vacation than during a regular week. Of course he got suckered into dumping $240M at a silly valuation.
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:53 am BTW - MikeT is right: "Social networking will not die. For many it serves a purpose - keeping in contact with friends or a group of interests. However, many are out there just to spend time, with no real or useful purpose and they will be the ones who will be or already are getting bored with it." With OpenSocial on Ning, you don't even have to sacrifice usability, or the 3 FB apps that you actually like.
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:54 am I think niche social networks are going to become more popular. I for one don't like having ex's from 3-4 years ago seeing all my latest activities, which is the case with facebook. I cannot limit what they can see because then I look like a jerk.
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:09 am I posted to Ingram's blog that almost everyone I know who has teenage kids has a myspace and facebook account just to monitor their kids usage on the sites. And, outside silicon valley and technology companies, a lot of people I know can't/don't use social networking sites at work, so more just a way to keep in touch with friends.
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:15 am I have tried to understand the appeal of these SN sites and I still don't get it. Gee I can put up a page with pictures of me and all my (insert SN site name) "friends." coms that boast the latest ways to connect with your (insert SN site name) "friends." Of course I thought (prayed) reality TV was a fad that would die out. I suspect that people will tire of SN sites at some point.
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:22 am facebook hype is over, the beacon did not deliver, ads do not work. spammy apps killed whole taste of facebook, now 75% of my newsfeed is app spam.
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:35 am The zenith of the hype was Microsoft's $240 million investment for 16% stakes in Facebook. People flocked to the site to see what the big deal was about and got nothing but spam. Microsoft launched a hostile takeover of Yahoo, so people took a second (or third, or fourth) look at Yahoo, and concluded that Yahoo is still a big old turkey. The subtext of this story is probably about Microsoft's "vision".
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:43 am Whether the stats tell an accurrate picture or not, Facebook Fatigue and Myspace Malaise are widespread infections. With Myspace I connected with friends I had not seen since my punk rock days which was a great and wonderful thing. I was in a new relationship when I got on there and when it ended all my friends knew before I told them because my status changed, that added whammy to the bummer. Now I have over 700 notifications to delete, mostly from chicks in the UK, lol. This would be good time for stupid ass Tribe to get their shit together but from what I hear that's as likely as no one catching an STD at Burning Man 28.
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:53 am Nice to see there was no attempt to spin the numbers around in Facebook's favor. Clicking through the link I half expected to see a litany of excuses explaining how Facebook was really growing fast as heck and really was worth 15 billion dollars (the kids were on christmas break, so these stats don't count) But, no! If that's the case, the question is- who will you endlessly fawn over next?
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:04 pm I don't think its fatigue, just that its growth is levelling off. Plus some people joined up just to see what its about, then left as they don't normally use the internet much. From my experience, 95% of my friends have joined up to it in the last 6 months, and 80% continue to be regular users.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:05 pm I find sites like TC to be about dumbing down the way people think because you don't add any insight you just regurgitate the obvious. SN's are a stepping stone to the future of the web one in which we move from search to discovery. In the real world we have friends who know more about cars, music, kids entertainers etc. and we tap them for knowledge discovery rather than search blindly for information. We are in the high school phase of SN where we have just joined and want to be friends with everyone but as we mature and progress we find our true friends and and niche social network in school. Give it a few years and we will unlink for the 500+ "friends" we have and get stronger links to real people we want to connect with. FB/Myspace/Bebo etc are fads and will be replaced it might take a few years yet but it wil happen.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:11 pm yea, FB reeks of something that could easily be seen as a novelty with diminishing returns. that microsoft cap certainly looks lofty now and i wonder if marc will be looked back with remorse for turning down y!
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:16 pm Andy: don't compare communication with just things. SNs are a fad - yes, but they are also a new form of communication, which is here for hundreds of thousands of years.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:23 pm The value was Myspace for 1/2 billion $. they need to profitably service a market - one that's theirs to loose is college students. indispensable to college students (staggering numbers here) but instead of locking in that vertical with expanded services they went horizontal for more eyeballs - was this the right strategy? What is a commonality or common interest amongst Facebook users today?
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:23 pm I agree with Discover, SN's are about discovering information in a more efficient and trusting way. Finding opinions on anything from someone you trust works much better than randomly searching websites. I myself am currently working on an informational website for college students that purely aims at sharing knowledge of college lifestyle rather than just being social.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:32 pm The real question is how bad does Zuckerberg feel for turning down the $1bn offer when he had it. I don't see an IPO happening anytime soon and I don't see the valuation going anywhere near what they first predicted.
I am much younger than 40 but old enough to vividly remember GeoCities. The buzz around them was similar except we used to call it "community" not "social". Facebook is a good idea -- and I like the business but the valuation is a joke and NOT sustainable. If they had a very bright future their Chief Revenue Officer wouldn't have left yesterday -- that kind of stuff simply doesn't happen without a good reason.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:43 pm I've been sick of facebook for a long time, and all these apps made it even worse. Now half the time, the pages either don't load or crash your browser alltogether.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:45 pm I'm not ready to declare that "the sky is falling" on FaceBook. As with any fast-growing site, there's going to come a time where you "just ...
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