10/25   How is that Google short going pal?
        \_ $20 BY FEBRUARY!!!
        \_ There's absolutely no reason why google should be that much
           higher than Yahoo. Just wait and see.
           \_ ah, so in other words, you didn't actually short it.  So
              instead of getting a margin call and losing tons of money,
              you can sit here and smugly say, if the stock goes back to
              where it IPOed, "see I told you so!"
              There's very little reason to compare Google's stock price to
              Yahoo's.  What do you see as fair value for Google?  -tom
              \_ I'm the GOOG short person and I plan to make money
                 shorting it. Half of the shares cannot even be sold yet.
                 Supply and demand. Will you admit you are wrong if it
                 falters?
                 \_ GOOG may go down and you may make lots of money.  Or you
                    may not.  IF, on the other hand, you make a film of you
                    and tom duking it out in the Thunderdome, you can sell
                    it and you will be garanteed to make money.
                 \_ I haven't made any pronouncements to be wrong about, except
                    that you can't tie Google's value to Yahoo's.  I don't
                    own GOOG and I'm not likely to any time soon.  -tom
                 \_ During what time period do you expect to successfully
                    short?
                 \_ Shorting is 100% timing.  If you can't get the timing
                    right, you will have your shorts handed to you.  Saying
                    a stock is ripe for shorting and not having a specific
                    timeframe has no context.  You can say a stock is
                    overvalued, but stocks can stay overvalued for very long
                    periods of time.
                    \_ I am not here to make you money or to be blamed if
                       I lose you money. This thing is overvalued. When
                       to short depends on how much Kool Aid you think
                       people will drink. I have an opinion on that. You
                       form your own.
                       \_ By when do you think you'll make money on GOOG
                          by shorting it, and how much Kool Aid do you think
                          GOOG buyers will drink?
                       \_ you didn't answer my question; what do you see as
                          fair value for Google?  And why?  -tom
                          \_ It doesn't even matter what the fair market
                             value is. All that matters is that 200M more
                             shares are going to hit the market. Any
                             activity before then is meaningless.
                             \_ you still didn't answer the question.  If
                                Google's fair market value is $250, it won't
                                matter if more shares hit the market when it's
                                at $180.  You seem to be focused on a series of
                                misconceptions and false assumptions.  -tom
                                \_ Yes, it will matter! Today's price is
                                   not reflective of the price then. If
                                   you want to know what it will be worth
                                   *then* that's a different question.
           \_ why do you keep saying there is no reason to compare google
              with yahoo?  though there are differences, yahoo is probably
              best benchmark for google.
              the best benchmark for google.
           \_ but google desktop is so ub3r!
        \_ Not exactly a Google question, but which has more potential for
           chicanery, a publicly-traded company or a privately held one?
           Public companies can have a market bubble or pump-and-dump, but
           I'd expect a private company would make it easier for an insider
           (or group of them) to loot the company's assets.
           \_ In theory it should be harder, but look at Enron. Even the
              accountants and auditors were to blame. The entire Internet
              bubble was based on insiders looting public companies.
        \_ thanks for reminding me about google again.  forgot about it
           already.  tricky stock to short, but it is looking more and
           more delicious.  I would consider shorting it after it drops
           about 20% from a peak.  The stock needs to go up further to
           make my profit bigger.  Fellow google short, what do you
           think?