fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/in-gun-ownership-statistics-partisan-divide-is-sharp
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NATE SILVER An American child grows up in a married household in the suburbs. What are the chances that his family keeps a gun in their home? The probability is considerably higher than our New York readers might expect: about 40 percent of such households reported having a gun in their home, according to the exit poll conducted during the 2008 presidential election. But the odds vary significantly based on the political identity of the child's parents. If they identify as Democratic voters, the chances are only about one in four, or 25 percent, that they have a gun in their home. But the chances are more than twice that, almost 60 percent, if they are Republicans instead. It will come as no surprise to those with a passing interest in American politics that Republicans are more likely to own guns than Democrats. But the differences have become much starker in recent years, with gun ownership having become a powerful predictor of political behavior.
General Social Survey, a biennial poll of American adults. Gun ownership has declined over the past 40 years -- but almost all the decrease has come from Democrats. By 2010, according to the General Social Survey, the gun ownership rate among adults that identified as Democratic had fallen to 22 percent. But it remained at about 50 percent among Republican adults. Gun ownership rates are slightly higher among those adults who vote regularly, such as those who were surveyed on the 2008 exit poll. Unfortunately, the question on gun ownership was dropped from the 2012 national exit poll. So the 2008 exit poll remains perhaps the most comprehensive recent evaluation on the gun-owning habits of Americans, having polled more than 4,000 voters on whether there was a gun in their household, along with a wide variety of demographic and political characteristics. The poll makes clear that gun ownership is deeply embedded in political identity, and vice versa. Some other variables, such as whether a voter lives in an urban area, also strongly predict gun ownership. But the differences between the parties remain even after accounting for these characteristics. Gun ownership rates are highest in rural areas, where guns are more likely to be used for hunting along with personal protection. A majority of Democratic voters in rural areas said they had a gun in their home, according to the survey, although the rate was somewhat higher, 65 percent, among rural Republicans. In urban areas, 40 percent of Republican voters said they had a gun in their home, while 20 percent of Democrats did. But the differences are most apparent in suburban areas. There, 58 percent of Republican voters said there was a gun in their household, against just 27 percent of Democrats. Having school-aged children in the household did not significantly affect gun ownership rates, either positively or negatively. The majority of children to Republican-voting parents had a gun somewhere in their homes, while only about one in four children in Democratic-voting households did. What Democratic parents might view as a safety hazard, Republicans may see as providing their families with an extra measure of protection. In other respects, the profile of gun owners defies some of the stereotypes that urban liberals might assign to them.
comments in 2008 about voters who "cling to guns and religion," the two qualities are not strongly related to each other. Slightly more than 40 percent of voters who said they attended church weekly or more often reported having a gun in their home, about the same percentage as among those who attend religious services just a few times a month or a few times a year. And gun ownership rates are highest among the middle class, rather than the poor. Households making $50,000 to $100,000 per year were slightly more likely to own guns than those that made a little bit less or a little more. White voters were substantially more likely to own guns than Hispanics, blacks or Asians. But white Republicans were more likely to own guns than white Democrats, Asian Republicans more likely than Asian Democrats, and so forth.
logistic regression analysis, suggest that gun ownership is a more powerful predictor of whether a voter is Republican than her gender, whether or not she identifies as gay or lesbian, whether she is Hispanic, or whether she lives in the South, along with many other demographic characteristics. And based on demographic inertia, the differences seem likely to grow over time. About 35 percent of Democratic voters aged 65 and older reported having a gun in their home, against about 25 percent of those aged 18 to 29. But gun ownership rates bore little relationship to age among Republican voters, and were constant at about 55 percent among all age groups. That might suggest that gun ownership will continue to decline among Democrats while holding steady among Republicans, further increasing the partisan gap.
polls on Newtown find relatively modest differences between Democrats and Republicans on what they see as the causes of the shooting. But after moments of healing, the partisan divide in attitudes toward guns has seemed only to accelerate after similar past events, as in Columbine, Colo. It might seem strange that ownership of a single household object is so strongly tied to voting behavior and broader political attitudes in America.
outlier relative to other industrialized n...
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