Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 53815
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2010/5/3-26 [Uncategorized] UID:53815 Activity:nil
5/3     BP shares. Buy? They are down 20% because of the spill, but is that
        the market overreacting or will there be major long-term
        adjustments to their business models that will curtail profits?
        \_ I am buying GS, but not BP. BP's potential liability is
           pretty amazingly huge.
           \_ Agreed. Note that BP has been trying to pay ppl $5k to
              forfeit right-to-sue; that's backlash waiting to
              happen.
           \_ What do you project will be their liability? Oil will be
              back to $150/barrel eventually. I think it would take maybe
              a $50 billion liability to make me worry. Do you think it
              could get that high? Exxon paid out $3.5 billion for the
              Exxon Valdez. BP can take a $50 billion hit one year and
              still make a profit.
              \_ I think oil will go through the roof too, so I own XOM,
                 CVX and USO, but not BP. BP's liability could easily top
                 $100B if they don't get this capped. Remember Valdez
                 $10000B if they don't get this capped. Remember Valdez
                 was in an almost unpopulated area.
                 \_ Though I guess there are limits on how much they can
                    be sued for. This is kind of an untested area of the law,
                    I bought TM when they were in the news and it has worked
                    out well so far for me, BP is probably not a bad bet
                    either. -PP