Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 53188
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2026/05/28 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/28    

2009/7/23-29 [Finance/Investment] UID:53188 Activity:nil
7/23    Jobless rate is at an all time high but the stock market is on
        steroid. What are some explanations?
        \_ No, it isn't. The stock market is a leading indicator, while
           the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.
           \_ This is true; however, it is worth noting that the stock
              market can be wrong.  It rebounded 60% off its lows in
              1929-1930.  The question isn't unemployment, the question
              is credit availability and liquidity; if we avoid any more
              bank failures, things will probably normalize relatively
              soon.  -tom
           \_ Are we out of recession yet? Is the economy going through
              a second housing boom?
              \_ http://www.businesscycle.com/resources
                 We will be out of recession in Q4, if not sooner.
                 No second housing boom is required.
        \_ Uncertainty breeds volatility.  The last month is an upswing, but it
           may not be a long-term trend.
2026/05/28 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/28    

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www.businesscycle.com/resources
Bookmark and Share Recession-Recovery Watch Below are data and charts for the US Weekly Leading Index (WLI), Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) and Leading Home Price Index (LHPI). Interpretation and additional index coverage for the US and international economies are available through our solutions for Professionals. Weekly Indexes Chart US Coincident Growth Rate Chart Shaded areas represent growth rate cycle downturns. Horizontal dashes near the bottom mark off US business cycle recessions. Leading Home Price Index Chart Shaded areas represent cyclical downturns in real home prices. ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.