www.nytimes.com/2009/04/03/world/asia/03korea.html
Memo from Seoul North Korea Perfects Its Diplomatic Game: Brinkmanship Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images People in Seoul, South Korea, protested on Thursday against the North's scheduled rocket launching.
North Korea prepares to launch as early as Saturday what it calls a rocket carrying a communications satellite but Washington calls an intercontinental ballistic missile, the world is watching.
Enlarge This Image Digitalglobe, via Associated Press The satellite image above shows what Washington believes is a Taepodong-2 missile at a launching pad on North Korea's northeastern coast.
Lee Myung-bak, agreed on the need for a "stern, united" international response. But with two American journalists detained and facing criminal indictment in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, the United States all but ruled out the possibility of shooting down the rocket -- an action that, if successful, could provoke the North into quitting already sputtering nuclear disarmament talks and, if not, would embarrass the Pentagon. Japan sent interceptor missiles to the coast facing the North. But like the United States, it admits that it can intercept only if the rocket fails and tumbles toward its territory.
Kim Jong-il, said during his recent birthday party, according to the March 28 edition of Rodong Sinmun, Pyongyang's main state-run newspaper. Rodong then explained Mr Kim's tactic: "If our sworn enemies come at us with a dagger, he brandishes a sword. If they train a rifle at us, he responds with a cannon." Among North Korea watchers, Mr Kim's tactic is known as "brinkmanship."
Current TV, who were arrested by North Korean soldiers at the border with China on March 17. The collapse of the Communist bloc in the early 1990s left North Korea with few friends. Since then, North Korea, a dictatorship armed to the teeth but unable to feed its own people without foreign aid, has specialized in provoking the international community for survival.
held an American for three months for illegally crossing its border from China in 1996; when it tested its first ballistic missile over Japan in 1998; when its warships clashed with the South Korean Navy in 1999 and 2002; These movements forced reluctant governments in Washington and Seoul to the negotiating table for talks that often resulted in more aid to North Korea. In return, North Korea agreed to work toward ending its nuclear program -- a promise it quickly stalled or reversed. It had to, experts say, because the nuclear card is its only major bargaining chip.
came to power in Seoul a year ago, ending a decade of no-strings-attached largess from the South. Meanwhile, Mr Obama took office in Washington in January, giving Mr Kim a reason to grab Washington's attention anew. Since last year, the North has called Mr Lee a "traitor" and his aides "pro-American flunkies" and "malicious confrontational maniacs." It has cut off dialogue with Seoul and stalled six-nation nuclear disarmament talks. A month ago, it began assembling what Washington believes is its Taepodong-2 missile at a launching pad on its northeast coast. Then an unexpected bonanza for the Pyongyang government rolled in in the persons of Ms Ling and Ms Lee. The regime is now preparing to put them on trial on charges of "hostile acts" against the Communist state, a crime punishable by up to 10 years of hard labor in one of the North's notorious prison camps.
All in all, Washington has few good options, experts said. "North Korea has little to lose in this game," said Kim Yong-hyun, a North Korea specialist at Dongguk University in Seoul. "It's a repeating pattern: Once again, North Korea's brinkmanship is working."
United Nations resolution that bans the North from all such tests. But an American effort to punish the North at the Security Council will bog down in haggling with China, the closest the North has to an ally, over whether the North is entitled to launch a satellite, analysts said. Any such move by the United States, North Korea warns, will also compel it to quit six-party talks on ending its nuclear weapons program -- Washington's top goal in dealing with North Korea. But the South is perpetually divided between those who want to discipline the North and those who fear such a tactic would only worsen its isolation and add to the deprivation of their relatives still living there. Tokyo has made the fate of a dozen Japanese kidnapped by North Korea an overriding priority in dealing with the North. Although popular, that policy has seriously curtailed Tokyo's flexibility to engage the North in the nuclear and missile disputes. By confronting the United States and Japan, he wants to enhance his credentials as a military leader as he seeks to get himself re-elected by his rubber-stamp Parliament, which convenes next Thursday, analysts said. The two American journalists provide North Korea with convenient leverage to attract a high-level envoy from Washington after the rocket launching. But for now, the North will focus on the successful launching, which will give the necessary lift to Mr Kim's domestic reputation.
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