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| 5/24 |
| 2009/3/16-21 [Politics/Domestic/California/Arnold, Politics/Domestic/California/Prop] UID:52721 Activity:nil |
3/16 RECALL RECALL RECALL!
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/03/16/MN9T16DDOA.DTL
\_ 47 states facing deficits:
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=711 |
| 5/24 |
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| www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/03/16/MN9T16DDOA.DTL Comments Georgia (default) Verdana Times New Roman Arial Font | Size: (03-15) 20:42 PDT -- The California Republican Party has been pummeled by some tough body blows in recent years - and results at the ballot box have been just part of the pain. This circular firing squad was on display last week at a "Tax Revolt" rally that drew 8,000 people to a Fullerton parking lot. It was organized by popular conservative talk show hosts John and Ken - John Kobylt and Ken Chiampou of radio station KFI in Los Angeles. The raucous California tea party featured such dramatics as the spearing of a likeness of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's head, and the sledge-hammering of a pile of Schwarzenegger dolls, videos and movie memorabilia - even an action hero lunch box. The radio hosts' "fatwas" target a handful of moderate GOP legislators who sided with Democrats to end the state budget impasse. Their calls to recall those lawmakers have reverberated throughout the Republican grassroots. the Jon and Ken party," said Hoover Institution media fellow and GOP consultant Bill Whalen. But while much of the activity is political fun and games, many in the nation's largest GOP organization say the political challenges are no laughing matter. With just a year to go before the 2010 midterm elections, when the California governor's seat and a US Senate seat will be up for grabs, critics say the state party is nearly broke and its leadership is under the gun. Its problems and infighting, they say, threaten to divert attention and focus from winning elections. Dominated by older social and religious conservatives, the California GOP has so far failed to broaden its appeal in the nation's most diverse state. An entrenched party system, California's gerrymandered legislative districts and closed primaries that protect incumbents have continued to favor the status quo: a GOP establishment that is older, whiter and male. Those reasons are driving women and Latinos, still rarities among GOP elected officials, from the party ranks. Recall efforts' risks Recall efforts could further hurt the GOP's chances, as conservative party activists have put moderate legislators such as Assemblyman Anthony Adams of Hesperia (San Bernardino County) and Sens. Abel Maldonado of Santa Maria (Santa Barbara County) and Roy Ashburn of Bakersfield in the bull's-eye. All three GOP legislators said they carefully weighed the agonizing decision to vote with Democrats - in opposition to the GOP's hard line on no new taxes - and end the state budget impasse last month. The "fatwa" also has been issued against Assemblyman Jeff Miller of Corona (Riverside County), and bloggers and activists have called for the end of the political career of Assemblyman Jim Silva of Huntington Beach (Orange County). They refused to agree to the ouster of GOP Assemblyman Mike Villines of Clovis (Fresno County) from party leadership during the budget tug-of-war. Whalen has urged his party to dump the political theater and get on with business. "Do California Republicans have a plan to productively channel all this anger, other than picking off a few lawmakers through recalls or primary challenges?" "Is there any strategy in place - or even the thought of a strategy - other than the game of randomly selecting names out of a hat to dole out punishment?" Democrats relish spectacle Democrats, at least, are cheering them on. "It's the definition of insanity - they keep doing the same thing, over and over," said Ben Tulchin, a veteran Democratic pollster based in San Francisco who says that the Republican antics have kept the party's eyes off the real prize - winning elections in California. "Instead of trying to expand their support, they keep appealing to the far right, which gives them a dwindling percentage of the vote," he said. And observers on both sides note that the party infighting has extended to organizational matters and could seriously affect how much the GOP raises for future races. One example: GOP chair Ron Nehring, re-elected to a second two-year term last month, has grappled with some headline-making scandals and continuing financial problems. Nehring was recently chosen by Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele to head the organization of state GOP chairs, a move that raised some eyebrows within the party itself. Scandal still reverberates Critics note the party is still feeling the effects of a 2007 scandal in which Nehring hired Michael Kamburowski, an Australian immigrant, to be the party's chief operating officer. Kamburowski had been ordered deported by immigration authorities, was jailed on visa violations and later filed a $5 million wrongful arrest suit against the federal government that was ultimately dismissed. He resigned after a Chronicle report revealed his immigration record. Those troubles prompted GOP officials, at the urging of donors, to mandate that the state party's new chief operating officer, Bill Christiansen, report directly to the party's board - rather than to Nehring. But Christiansen was recently forced to resign under pressure and new party bylaws were crafted. His successor will now report again to Nehring, a move that has alarmed major donors concerned about oversight and the party's depleted coffers, several GOP sources said. Moderates under fire Conservative stalwarts, however, have responded with an attack on one of the party's leading moderate voices, former GOP Chairman Duf Sundheim, who heads an independent party-building organization called California Republicans Aligned for Tomorrow. They charge that Sundheim's $400,000-plus salary is excessive. The salary is funded not by the party, but by donors who want to recruit moderate GOP candidates for state and local races. Whalen said the tit-for-tat is evidence that "if there's a problem with the California Republican Party, it's that for too long, it's been obsessed by past fights." "Dwelling on the past means you're not living in the future," he said. "For as much heat and energy that has been spent in the past months, that's all energy that won't be spent on the 2010 cycle." Unless it changes, "Republicans in 2011 will all be gathered around in a circle," he predicts, "and wondering how Barbara Boxer got re-elected again." Marin City looks to better days On Highway 101, about 5 miles north of the Golden Gate Bridge, a green exit sign points the path to two Marin County communities. Ticket's in the mail: Red-light cameras questioned Minutes after Neel Manglik illegally turned right on a red light in the Des Moines suburb of Clive, a video popped up on a computer... Chronicle workers vote 10 to 1 for concessions Members of the San Francisco Chronicle's largest union overwhelmingly agreed to contract concessions that clear the way... Hearst Newspapers Be the first to share your thoughts on this story. GOP turns on itself, risks losses in midterms Articles The California Republican Party has been pummeled by some tough body blows in recent years - and results at the ballot box have been just part of the pain. Now, at a time when the national GOP is trying to find its... |
| www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=711 Elizabeth McNichol Updated March 13, 2009 Key Findings * Some 47 states are facing fiscal stress in their FY2009 and/or FY2010 budgets. Initial estimates of these shortfalls total almost $105 billion. As the full extent of 2010 deficits become known, shortfalls are likely to equal $145 billion. States in the Recession States are facing a great fiscal crisis. At least 47 states faced or are facing shortfalls in their budgets for this and/or next year, and severe fiscal problems are highly likely to continue into the following year as well. Combined budget gaps for the remainder of this fiscal year and state fiscal years 2010 and 2011 are estimated to total more than $350 billion. States are currently at the mid-point of fiscal year 2009 -- which started July 1 in most states -- and are in the process of preparing their budgets for the next year. Over half the states had already cut spending, used reserves, or raised revenues in order to adopt a balanced budget for the current fiscal year -- which started July 1 in most states. New gaps of $53 billion (over 8% of state budgets) have opened up in the budgets of at least 42 states plus the District of Columbia. These budget gaps are in addition to the $48 billion shortfalls that these and other states faced as they adopted their budgets for the current fiscal year, bringing total gaps for the year to 15 percent of budgets. The states' fiscal problems are continuing into the next two years. At least 44 states have looked ahead and anticipate deficits for fiscal year 2010 and beyond. These gaps total almost $105 billion -- 17 percent of budgets -- for the 38 states that have estimated the size of these gaps and are likely to grow as gaps are re-estimated in the next few months. The deficit figures for FY2010 and FY2009 show the impact the economic downturn has had on state budgets. These figures are the total size of the shortfall identified by each state listed. In some cases all or part of this shortfall has already been closed through a combination of spending cuts, withdrawals from reserves, revenue increases or use of federal stimulus dollars. Figure 2 shows the size and duration of the deficits in the recession that occurred in the first part of this decade, and estimates of the likely deficits this time. This recession is more severe -- deeper and longer -- than the last recession, and thus state fiscal problems are likely to be worse. Unemployment, which peaked after the last recession at 63 percent, has already hit 81 percent, and many economists expect it to rise to 9 percent or higher, which will reduce state income taxes and increase demand for Medicaid and other services. With consumers' reduced access to home equity loans and other sources of credit, sales taxes are also likely to fall more steeply than they did in the last recession. These factors suggest that state budget gaps will be significantly larger than in the last recession. Based on past experience and the depth of this recession, it appears likely that all but a handful of states will face shortfalls in fiscal year 2010 and these deficits will end up totaling about $145 billion. If, as is widely expected, the economy does not begin to significantly recover until the end of calendar year 2009, state deficits are likely to be even larger in state fiscal year 2011 (which begins in July 2010 in most states). It may be particularly difficult for states to recover from the current fiscal situation. the decline in housing markets has already depressed consumption and sales taxes as people refrain from buying furniture, appliances, construction materials, and the like. Property tax revenues are also affected, and local governments will be looking to states to help address the squeeze on local and education budgets. And as the employment situation continues to deteriorate, income tax revenues will weaken further and there will be further downward pressure on sales tax revenues as consumers are reluctant or unable to spend. The vast majority of states cannot run a deficit or borrow to cover their operating expenditures. As a result, states have three primary actions they can take during a fiscal crisis: they can draw down available reserves, they can cut expenditures, or they can raise taxes. the remaining reserves are not sufficient to allow states to weather a significant downturn or recession. The other alternatives -- spending cuts and tax increases -- can further slow a state's economy during a downturn and contribute to the further slowing of the national economy, as well. In some cases all or part of these shortfalls have already been addressed. Major State Fiscal Organizations Find State Fiscal Crisis of Historic Proportions That Will Last for a Number of Years The three main organizations that track state fiscal conditions -- the National Conference of State Legislatures, the National Association of State Budget Officers and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities -- have found large and growing shortfalls in the vast majority of states. There may be some confusion, however, about the ways in which these deficit estimates differ and whether they are in conflict. The Center has projected that states will face deficits of some $350 billion over the next 30 months, which appears to be very different than the $90 billion to $100 billion deficits being discussed by NCSL and NASBO. The differences, however, can be simply explained by two factors: * The freshness of the data. The Center's estimate reflects the most current data on deficits that each state has released. Two frequently-cited NCSL and NASBO reports reflect data collected in November 2008. The economy has deteriorated substantially since November, and states have revised their revenue estimates downward since then. Estimates of current deficits in an updated survey released by NCSL at the end of January are essentially the same as the Center's January estimates. The Center's estimate includes shortfalls that have already been announced plus a projection of the additional deficits states will experience through fiscal year 2011; this projection is based on the relationship of revenues to economic conditions. The NCSL and NASBO are reporting solely on deficits states have announced so far for mid-year fiscal year 2009 and for fiscal year 2010. NCSL and NASBO are not attempting to estimate the totality of states' deficits over the course of the expected fiscal crisis, although analysts at both organizations acknowledge that the fiscal crisis is likely to last for several years. Despite the different timing and scope of the estimates, the three organizations are finding the same thing. Each of these surveys clearly indicates that states are facing a fiscal crisis of historic proportions that will continue for number of years. Some states have not been affected by the economic downturn but the number is dwindling. Some mineral-rich states -- such as New Mexico, Alaska, and Montana -- saw revenue growth as a result of high oil prices. However, the recent decline in oil prices has begun to affect revenues in some of these states. The economies of a handful of other states have so far been less affected by the national economic problems. In states facing budget gaps, the consequences sometimes are severe -- for residents as well as the economy. Unlike the federal government, states cannot run deficits when the economy turns down; they must cut expenditures, raise taxes, or draw down reserve funds to balance their budgets. As the current fiscal year ends and states plan for next year, budget difficulties have led some 34 states to reduce services to their residents, including some of their most vulnerable families and individuals. For example, at least 18 states have implemented cuts that will affect low-income children's or families' eligibility for health insurance or reduce their access to health care services. Programs for the elderly and disabled are also being cut. At least 18 states and the District of Columbia are cutting medical, rehabilitative, home care, or other services needed by low-income people who are elderly or have disabilities, or significantly ... |