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| 5/23 |
| 2009/2/9-15 [Politics/Domestic/California, Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:52538 Activity:low |
2/9 GOP may be "winning" stimulus debate on TeeVee, but they're losing quite
badly with the public:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/02/another-poll-shows-public-approving-obama-disapproving-gop-on-stimulus.php
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/02/poll-obama-way-ahead-of-gop-on-stimulus.php
\_ Uh, the support for the pork package is falling, and now the CBO
says we'll get out of the recession without a stimulus.
\_ Is the fallback position for the GOP? First they claim that
\_ Is this the fallback position for the GOP? First they claim that
the stimulus bill will be a disaster, then after it works, they
are going to claim "we would have gotten out of the recession
anyway"?
\_ No, they'll claim that the stimulus package prolonged the
recession. They'll keep repeating it and repeating it
until the dittoheads think it's a consensus view instead
of the product of ideological wack jobs. (See: Conservative
positions on FDR and the Depression). -tom
\_ Oh, yah, UCLA is conservative.
\_ Last I checked, CBO wasn't Republican.
\_ Your track record of reliably reporting from other sources
is suspect, at least to me. What is the URL to the CBO
report in question? It is not an exaggeration to claim
that almost every economist, no matter their political
stripe, think that a stimulus package is warranted.
stripe, thinks that a stimulus package is warranted.
\_ There's a summary at:
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/02/cbo-predicts-recession-will-end-in-2009.html
But you'll dismiss that. So here's a link to the PDF
from the CBO:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9958/01-08-Outlook_Testimony.pdf
\_ There is nothing in the CBO report that supports
your claim. In fact, it actually says this:
Principles for Fiscal Stimulus
In the absence of any changes in policy, CBO projects
that the economy will produce about $1 trillion less
output per year than its estimated potential in each of
2009 and 2010 and significantly less than its potential
in 2011 and 2012 as well (see Figure 12). The unemploy-
ment rate is forecast to rise above 9 percent by early
next year. Many economists believe that a stimulative
fiscal policy (that is, an increase in spending or
reduction in taxes designed to foster faster economic
growth in the short run) is desirable under the
current economic conditions.
\_ You apparently have a different definition of the word "falling"
than most people.
\_ 62% Want Stimulus Plan to Have More Tax Cuts, Less Spending
http://tinyurl.com/cajvyb [rasmussen]
\_ Wow, just wow. So a 36 point approval gap means nothing
to you? Keep drinking that Kool aid, man.
\_ I was responding to the "different definition of
falling" claim. Sorry for that linear logic. |
| 5/23 |
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| tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/02/another-poll-shows-public-approving-obama-disapproving-gop-on-stimulus.php CNN, shows that President Obama is viewed very positively in the legislative battles over the stimulus bill, while the Republican Party remains the unpopular player in this game Obama has a 76% overall job approval and 23% disapproval. Meanwhile, Congress has a very poor rating of 29%-71% -- but it quickly becomes clear that this should be not be simply laid at the feet of the majority Democrats, and is instead the GOP's fault. The Democratic leadership in Congress has a solid rating of 60%-39%, while the Republican leaders are at 44%-55%. Furthermore, respondents said by 74%-25% that Obama is doing enough to cooperate with Republicans, while they say by a 60%-39% margin that Republicans are not doing enough to cooperate with him. As for the stimulus bill itself, it is currently favored by a 54%-45% margin. If it becomes law, 16% expect it to do a lot to help the economy, 48% expect it to help somewhat, and only 20% say it won't help. The only really good number for the Republicans in here is that 55% say the bill will result in government spending too much money, compared to 13% who say it doesn't spend enough and 30% saying it's about right. But it's clear that there is a swing section of Americans who may think this bill is flawed in some respect, but nevertheless very much want to to see it passed. user-pic Furthermore, respondents said by 74%-25% that Obama is doing enough to cooperate with Republicans, while they say by a 60%-39% margin that Republicans are not doing enough to cooperate with him. Wonder if any of the talking heads will notice this little nugget. And that 23% that disapprove of the Pres's job are no doubt the exact same 23% that thought GWB was doing a heckuva job. How long has it been since we've seen a president take questions like that directly from people, and give intelligent, thoughtful answers? People can say what they want about our pres, but the man knows his stuff. When he explains things, it seems to just cut through all the noise and make perfect sense. I had mentioned in a previous thread I thought Obama would want to put the school spending back in. Well, Obama did in fact suggest putting the spending for schools back into the Recovery Package about 2 minutes ago! The MSM tells us that the stimulus is failing and the public hates it. We must believe them or the CW will have to be changed, and then what will we have left? I prefer to go with what the media believes is true, rather than reality, which as Stephen Colbert tells, has a known liberal basis. user-pic While the claim that it's not popular rests on the very thick reed of the conversations he participates in at DC cocktail parties and what GOP congresspeople and conservative talking heads tell him. I mean, Lindsey Graham recently said the Republican party and most of the American public are against this package - so it must be true! user-pic As opposed to the "strong" support they have by buying into GOP talking points and the conventional wisdom created in the DC echo chamber. When they have to give it up, they get very cranky and make everyone else miserable. user-pic CNN tv channel already is spinning this poll to portray Obama in a negative light. They mention his high 70+ approval rating and complains that the stimulus bill only has a 54% approval rating. They dont even mention the negative opinions about the GOP congress in this poll on TV. user-pic "Outstanding" is the only word to give Obama in the townhall meeting. And I love that Gibbs told cablenews they are out of touch with the country. Watching Obama really is like watching an Ali boxing match. Obama extended a hand to the Republicans and now he can shame them for returning a fist. While liberal friends suggest a futility of reaching out to GOP members of Congress for support -- pointing to the zero GOP votes that the economic stimulus package received in the House -- arguably Obama won the perception fight. Swing voters know he reached out for Republican support and was rebuffed by the GOP. For most voters who aren't Rush Limbaugh listeners, Obama won that exchange. This week, the Senate is debating its stimulus package, and it looks increasingly likely that the legislation will be changed fairly substantially to address concerns that it was too porked up in the House. It's not uncommon to witness Democratic senators score points at the expense of their House colleagues, and, let's face it, with some justification. Clearly, some Democrats saw the measure as a cross between Christmas and Mardi Gras: a vehicle for getting long-denied goodies, not the emergency legislative measure it was intended to be. A decent bet might be that we will begin to see Obama utilize his own variation on triangulation, setting himself and his administration as equidistant between Republicans on the far right and Democrats on the far left. On the one side, Democratic leaders will moan and groan but generally go along with it. On the other side, Republicans will be forced to choose between too often being irrelevant to the process on the one hand and not standing for anything on the other. It's a lousy situation to be in, but for now there is no way out. Republicans on their own have little credibility today, and their success has become contingent upon Obama's failure, something they have little control over. user-pic Obama at Townhall is what Repub should be afraid of. If they are in a fight against Congressional Dems, then they can make this a partisan fight. The oppo tried to marginalize him, but when people see him in person, they invariably like him. That's what Repub and Stimulus obstructionist need to be afraid of. He wants to really be the Prez for all Americans, but as a politician, he is GOLDEN. He tried to be inclusive and the Repub who really had nothing to lose, bit the hand that fed them. So now they are getting the politician, and they need to watch out. |
| tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/02/poll-obama-way-ahead-of-gop-on-stimulus.php Gallup poll shows that President Obama is continuing to enjoy high approval in handling the economic stimulus debate -- and his brand is solidly beating the Congressional Republicans, too. The numbers: Obama has a 67% approval and only 25% disapproval on how he's handled the stimulus bill, compared to Congressional Republicans' 31% approval and very high 58% disapproval. Congressional Democrats aren't as popular as Obama himself -- explaining the GOP's efforts to tie the bill to Nancy Pelosi, instead of Obama -- but they're still in the black at 48%-42%. In addition, a 51% majority of independents say it is critically important to pass a stimulus bill, 27% say it is moderately important, and only 17% say it's not important. The numbers among the Republican base, as we might expect, are wildly different: Only 29% say it is critically important, 37% say it's important but not critically so, and 31% say it's not important. user-pic I think the BEST thing that Obama did this week was to STOP accommodating the Republicans and show some fight and fight back starting on Wednesday. That as well as the dismal numbers out on Friday woke everybody up. What Obama has decided to do is take the fight BACK to the Bush policies which is very unpopular and he is linking the GOP Congress with those vey unpopular policies. If Obama continues to do that as well as sell the stimulus package as a JOBS BILL than he will do very well. It is nice to see Obama back in campaign mode because he truly SHINES in that mode. It brings it DIRECTLY to the American people and over the heads of Congress and the pundits. They are becoming increasingly like they don't care about the unemployed as well as economy. They are becoming the party of NO and obstructionists to help with the economy. In all honesty, this bill was drafted at the request of Obama. Unfortunately, house Dems put a couple silly things on there that were tough to defend and I'm not sure he should have been out there defending House Dems. And, 78% of independents saying it is important to pass the stimulus is a significant number. Here's the problem with some of those earlier polls and in all honestly it was difficult to put a good question forth that couldn't be used to build onto anyone negative narrative in some way. Well, nobody really wants to spend money I don't believe. But, what I believe, and what can be seen by the response to this well formed questions, labeling it only as a stimulus, and asking if they believe its necessary, is Americans understand we've been put into a situation that needs immediate attention. I'm sure if they were asked again if they supported it you would see a low number again. when they rolled out the house bill, I couldn't believe what I was hearing. It was if the first order of business was to give Republicans the first 5 news cycles. Did they really think Boehner would even utter the words Planned Parenthood before warning of teenage sex workshops and free abortion day at the malls? House Democrats may as well have targeted a few billion for Gay reparations and French lessons for ACORN. However, even with a Democratic majority, I trust BHO to prevail. By the way, I support Gay reparations (up to $10,000 per canceled wedding) and a one time grant to train Acorn staffers to teach french. user-pic Absolutely, I finally learned to just relax and let him drive. BHO has his GPS programmed and everybody else is lost and frantically unfolding their old coffee stained maps. I read an article yesterday that put alot of my fears to rest. THE BUDGET is where Obama will make his most progressive moves, we don't need 60 votes to pass, just 50 so O just wants his first legislative win and will put in the work on the budget for a piece of 2009 and the rest of 2010. user-pic What is the percentage of people who think that Obama, the Democrats, and the Republicans are all doing a terrible job on the stimulus? It would have been better to fight for a good bill from the beginning. user-pic And he's got his prime time presser tonight - the GOP better pass the Stimulus today, or they're going to get buried. The unfortunate thing is that this came too late and the deal was made with the belief that he was losing the PR war. I bet the Dems would be a little more emboldened if they were negotiating with these numbers backing them. user-pic The deal was not made with the belief that he was losing the PR war. These numbers have been consistent since the beginning and the White House has its own internal polling as well. Unlike many people in the liberal blogosphere, Obama doesn't suck on the teet of conventional wisdom and he never has. The deal was made because Obama didn't have 60 votes yet. The news cycle is irrelevant except among those who are looking in from the outside. user-pic I was just going to say that if you mention these Gallup numbers to a wingnut, they'll immediately point you to Rasmussen. I did earn a lot of respect for Rasmussen during the primaries and general election last year. He was very accurate, even though his numbers were often very good for the guy he didn't want to win. I always doubted his "issues" polling, though - for example, his questions about drilling and gas tax holidays that he asked all the time last year. I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his polling on the stimulus, and said as much in the comments here. But now he definitely looks like the outlier in the bunch. user-pic That and also his numbers for republican voters in general. Also, throw in the daytime robocalling and his numbers are always 5% off in the conservative direction and don't add up. user-pic Deal isn't made until the bill comes out of conference. It's hard to believe but I'm beginning to wonder if there hasn't been some rope-a-dope. If the Reps have had a headwind and done their best and *still* not made advances with the public, how strident do you think they will be in conference? but it's hard to believe even he planned **this** timing. Obama is supported by 67% of the country, while the GOP's disapproval rating is 58%? Obviously, it's high time that Harry Reid be more accommodating to the GOP. Mustn't, mustn't ever make them mad, or, god forbid, actually make them really truly filibuster something, right Harry? user-pic I am not a fan of Harry Reid, but on this one he had to get 60 votes because of the Budget Act which requires any large deficit spending to get a higher vote than a regular bill. You would think liberals would stop freaking out over Republican shenanigans, thinking they are so effective. I feel like we are in the middle of the campaign and everybody is saying Obama needs to hit back harder. I have learned to just relax and realize this is what Obama always does and it has worked way better than anything I've thought of. I think if Obama does garner more media support this week the momentum shift empowers Nancy Pelosi to put a lot of the cut stuff back into the stimulus bill and Senate Dems will just have to stuff it and re-vote for it. I expect Obama told the Democrats where he was willing to cut back to pick up the 60 votes because he knew he could pick it up in the budget bill or another bill later. For all the crying about the cutbacks, I haven't seen one person comment on what Obama did get in the stimulus bill. The Republicans would like to make you believe they won something, but their faces Friday night said it all. Obama knows what he is doing, and now he is going to pump the poll numbers up higher for the stimulus, making the Republicans look like the fringe party they've become. Ron Paul makes a lot of noise too, but doesn't mean anybody is listening. user-pic Unfortunately, the GOP's disapproval matches the number of Democratic Senates, and that number is less than the number needed to pass a stimulus bill... user-pic Obama's about to sign landmark legislation within weeks of taking office, and he still boasts record approval ratings - trouncing the GOP in the process - but if you tune into Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, or even CNN (or god, forbid, Faux News), you'd think his administration was tanking faster than you can say "jimmy ... |
| gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/02/cbo-predicts-recession-will-end-in-2009.html Sunday, February 08, 2009 CBO Predicts Recession Will End in 2009 Without Stimulus The Congressional Budget Office predicted that the current economic recession will end in the second half of 2009 without the trillion dollar stimulus. The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019 (pdf): CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started in December 2007, will last until the second half of 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II. This ecession, however, may not result in the highest unemployment rate. Table 2, page 12) also predicts that the GDP will drop to 14,224 Billion in 2009. This is 19% or $63 billion drop from 2008: Click to Enlarge And, Democrats want to pass a trillion dollar Spendulus bill to fix this? |
| tinyurl.com/cajvyb -> www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/february_2009/62_want_stimulus_plan_to_have_more_tax_cuts_less_spending With the Senate poised to vote Tuesday on an $827-billion version of the economic recovery plan, 62% of US voters want the plan to include more tax cuts and less government spending. Just 14% would like to move in the opposite direction with more government spending and fewer tax cuts, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Twenty percent (20%) would be happy to pass it pretty much as is, and five percent (5%) are not sure. Republicans and unaffiliated voters overwhelmingly want to see more tax cuts and less government spending. Democrats are more evenly divided: 42% agree with the Republicans, 32% want to pass the plan as is, and 22% would like to see more government spending and fewer tax cuts. Most conservative and moderate voters want to see more tax cuts. A plurality of liberals say the plan should be passed pretty much as it is. analysis by Scott Rasmussen notes that the stimulus debate is now driven by a tug-of-war between the popularity of President Obama and the nation's deeply ingrained reluctance to increase government spending. Republicans argue that the 700-page-plus plan is loaded with excessive spending, much of which does not directly address the country's economic needs. The Senate version which reduced government spending and added more tax cuts will have to be reconciled with the $819-billion version that passed the House, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi already has vowed to restore many of the spending cuts. The president has said that inaction on the rescue plan will lead to catastrophe. ElectionEdge(TM) Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. This national telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 6-7, 2009. Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters February 6-7, 2009 Would you like to see the plan include more tax cuts and less government spending, more government spending and less tax cuts, or would you rather see the plan pass pretty much as it is today? |