1/26 Merrill Lynch chief economist declares we are in depression.
(sorry, no link - it's an internal note)
Sedacca of http://minyanville.com also calls depression against current
consensus of 2nd half recovery (go to http://minyanville.com, "depression")
"The main point I would wish to deliver here: An economy built on so
much leverage, deteriorating so quickly, is going to collapse, no
matter what the stimulus (bailouts, buyouts, TARP, Stimulus packages,
quantitative easing, mortgage market manipulation, etc). The economic
avalanche is upon us. And if you've ever witnessed an avalanche, there
is no way to stop it."
My take: Sedacca ignores that "out of recession" == one quarter of
positive GDP growth (by one def'n). Quarterly GDP is qoq, not yoy, so
it's easy to go positive from 4Q08. You can have depression + "out of
recession" at the same time. Yes: Tea and no tea simultaneously.
\_ FUCK did you get past the babelfish puzzle?
\_ what's with all these tools i need to collect?
\_ I hope you kept the pocket fluff.
\_ I guess the chief economist of Merrill Lynch would know something
about basing your entire economy on imaginary leverage.
\_ The IBs are screaming bloddy murder, so they can get more handouts
\_ The IBs are screaming bloody murder, so they can get more handouts
from the taxpayer. The Economist predicts that the recession will
end mid-year and we should see modest growth by the end of the
year.
\_ don't forget, "end of recession" == positive GDP growth for one
quarter (by one def'n). We can therefore not be in a recession
while in a depression simultaneously -op
\_ Yeah, well, a few random idiots are predicting depression.
The Economist is not. We will see who is right. I know
who has a better track record. |