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2009/1/5-8 [Finance/Investment] UID:52314 Activity:low |
1/3 Need stock market tip. What is the historic normal for the first quarter of the year? Up, down, random, etc? I had a bunch of limit orders but there were very little movement in the second half of Q4, which was expected but disappointing considering that I make most of the money on big swings -week trader \_ http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm In general, the first part of the year is not so great, especially the first year of a new President's term. However, based on history 2008 should have been a great year and we know how that went. That's why past results don't guarantee future returns. Overall, the markets have been more stable and less volatile recently which has been making it harder to trade, but is better for the long-term outlook of the markets. \_ 404 Not Found \_ Typo. Fixed. |
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www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm Do some months have significantly different market returns than others? This calculator uses fifty-odd years of S&P 500 data to let you see for yourself. the calculator will show you its good and bad years and overall return, for the years from 1950 until recently. Select Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Years from to Results From the results, it looks like some months really are significantly better than average. November through January is a particularly strong stretch; and September is the "danger" month, with an overall negative return. Surprisingly, October shows positive returns on average, although October 1987 is pretty hard to forget. Note that December has been better than January, which contradicts two popular myths: the December Selloff, and the January Effect. But also notice that there are lots of exceptions to the pattern. And of course the biggest trend of all is that the market goes up over time. So maybe the lesson here is the usual one, that long-term buy and hold is the winning strategy. |