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| 12/25 |
| 2008/12/2-9 [Finance/Investment] UID:52146 Activity:nil |
12/2 http://www.cnbc.com/id/28010476 Chief market strategist says a "very very very strong rally" is coming, +25% to +40% starting ~ Dec 15, ending in July '09. GODDAMMIT I'm going to make BUX!!1 \_ Cool, free money machine! What could go wrong? I am dumping all of my savings into QQQQ right now. \_ ^QQQQ^GOOG \_ http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/2/102214/940/743/668445 The average bull market goes up 40% in its first year. \_ ...if you could predict the day it starts going up, which you can't. -tom |
| 12/25 |
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| www.cnbc.com/id/28010476 Milestones In Gov't Spending If you are dumbfounded by the amount of money the federal government is pouring into the private sector to ease the nation's financial crisis, click ahead for a big-budget ride through time. Wall Street In Crisis With shock after shock to the world's financial system, the credit crunch continues to drive a major reconfiguration of the Wall Street landscape. The Dow Industrial Average is poised for an extended bear-market rally that could see the index gain as much as 40 percent, Sandy Jadeja, chief market strategist at ODL Securities, told CNBC. CNBCVideo28010514 "There's a very very very strong rally in the making and it's going to last all the way up into next year into the July period," Jadeja said. "We can see almost a 25 to 40 percent corrective rally coming up," he said. The rally will start in or around the week of December 15, but there could be further weakness before then, Jadeja said. could slump to 6,800 or 6,400 in the next two weeks as the index forms a bottom before its half-year upswing, he said. Once the Dow has rallied during the first half of the year it could then retest lows in the second half, he said. "My personal view is that we are going to see oil at $37, possibly even down to $33," he said. "To get a real thrust up we are going to have to see a 30 percent rally in order to break above the pivot highs, in order to get back above the moving average, in order to get an increase in momentum. It doesn't look like it's going to happen any time soon," he added. |
| www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/2/102214/940/743/668445 Devilstower Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 05:35:05 PM PST How bad is this stock market? So bad that even those of us old enough to remember the Johnny Carson routine can't think of an appropriate zinger. Yes, I know the market has made gains today, and things don't look quite as bad as they did in the recent trough. On this chart each block represents a year and each column represents a range of return on the S&P index. Over on the right side are those lucky years where the index has soared upward from 50-60%. In the middle are the more typical years, where the market has risen less than 10%. The chart (the idea for which comes from a similar chart prepared by Value Square Asset Management, Yale University) has a wealth of interesting information. Because the S&P is a much broader index of market activity, it's not quite as prone to crazy moves as the Dow. It's also not as easily manipulated by the "let's just trade out these exhausted brands for a couple of up and comers" means by which the Dow's value is sometimes inflated. On the chart you can see that the decline that began in 1929 didn't really reach it's nadir until 1931, following which there were wild swings bringing a record positive move in 1933 and a second crash in 1937. The movement of the market from there through the mid-40s is series of gradually dampening swoops ms y menos. How helpful that will be as a model for what happens post-2008 isn't clear. But short of 1931, there's no other year in the S&Ps history comparable to 2008. Let's just hope that we're at the 1931 (or 1937) stage of this downturn, and not in 1929, okay? And hey, how many of you knew the S&P had been around since 1825? |