10/27 In housing markets, why is high prices associated with high number of
transactions, and low prices associated with low number of
transactions? From my simplistic view using supply and demand curves,
the prices and the number of transactions should be independent. Thx.
\_ Doesn't that indicate that more people buy houses as investments,
rather than as a place to live in? Sad sad world.
\_ Gee, "supply and demand curves" are not as gospel as the little
Invisible Hand is Everything brains believe. Here's a hint, simple
rules for complex systems are never right.
\_ simple rules often are correct for statics or equillibrium
conditions, e.g. conservations rules, but often you are
interested in dynamics or out of equillbirum situations.
analogous to the great conservation rules in physics are the
"great" accounting identities in econ.
"great" accounting identities in econ. the simp;est explanation
of higher prices being postiives correlated with higher
transactions is liqudiy preference, but there are some
subtler issues that are difficult to summarize here. it involves
modeling some asymmetries between the buyers and sellers,
modelling the growth of the housing stock in an area and the
change in demand in that area etc.
\_ The economy is *not* an equilibrium system, despite
what traditional econ teaches you (and then attempts
to un-teach you at the graduate level). Check out
"The Origin of Wealth" for a good overview.
\- yes, and the same is true of "real world physics". but
the point is that you first learn simple normative stuff
[PV=nRT, F=ma, GDP=C+I+X-M], and than add increasingly
complicated boundary conditions and complicating factors.
these simple rules are often quite powerful when thinking
about problems, e.g. the parition of energy, energy
conservation etc. it cant answer all questions ... like
the positive effect on trade vs loss of purchasing power
when your currency goes down, but it's a necessary starting
point. BTW, you want wish to see the "new growth theory"
whichs seems to try an account for some of the stuff
in the book you mention. the "king" of new growth theory
is PROMER, formerly of ucb dept econ, currently at the
'Fraud, not related to DROMER and CROMER currently still
at UCB Econ. (whoa, according to wikipedia PROMER is the
son of RROMER. "i did not know that.").
\_ Agreed, but at least in Physics the simplifying
assumptions and abstractions allow you to make
predictions which are still borne out when you
introduce complicating factors. The issue with
the assumptions made in traditional econ is that
they often don't hold up in the real world. Thanks
for the pointers, btw.
\- there are some areas where "economics" most
definitey is in equillibirum: cross-currency
arbitrage for example. now you are right, long
term currency rates are uncertain. and yes that is
why in advanced econ classes you study stuff like
dornbusch overshooting, CIP, UIP, PPP etc. and
the other thing is some of these "simple normaitve
statements" do lauch research agendas, like the
efficient markets hypothesis ... you dont have to
believe in that has a description of the mkt but it
is a starting point just like "rational economic
man" is a point of departure from normative to
behavioral economics. OK TNX. |