10/14   DJIA and S&P500 suffer worst 1-day percentage declines since 1987 Black
        Monday crash.
        \_ It's all ACORN's fault.
           \_ You laugh, but the market is clearly terrified that there is
              going to be Obama Socialism in America.
              \_ Clearly!  Why just the other day the market and I were
                 having dinner and after it had a few too many glasses of
                 wine it sheepishly admitted that while things may have been
                 rough lately, what with the housing market and all, what
                 really was worrying it, deep down inside, was the prospect
                 of Obama Socialism in America.
                 really kept it up at night was the prospect of Obama
                 Socialism in America.  It took real willpower not to pat it
                 on the hand and say "It's ok, we've all known this about you
                 for a while now.  There's nothing to be ashamed of."
              \_ Yeah, that damn socialist might bail out the largest
                 insurance company in the world, or *nationalize the banks*!
                 Oh wait...
        \_ sorry about my earlier post where I had written something like "get
           rid of 50% more on some multi-week rally". I had originally meant to
           write "get rid of 50% on some rally which may last from 1 day to
           a few months".  I'm sticking to my original thesis:  this fucker can
           collapse at ANY moment, and, you may see REAL panic selling, and
           panic or not, the strong likelihood is it's going down. -op
           \_ I bought today. If tomorrow is a bad day I will buy more. I'm
              making money with these fluctuations by trading, but I still
              have the majority of my $$$ "buy and hold". I'm down on the
              year because of that, but I'm not 64 so I don't sweat it.
              \_ an excellent way to approach this.  as long as you have a
                 model.  i'm all in favor of keeping 80% in "safety", and 20%
                 doing whatever the hell you want.  although I would have
                 liquidated that 80% a few weeks ago when I mentioned it and
                 had it ready to buy now at lower prices.
                 \_ "Had it ready" is not the same as buying. Or is it?
                    \_ let's put it this way:  if you had sold when I said, you
                       would currently be very right.
                       \_ I don't believe you (or anyone else) can time
                          the markets. However, you can do an analysis and
                          realize that a global recession isn't the end of
                          corporate earnings for many, many businesses and
                          that the markets are reacting to fear and uncertainty
                          instead of acting rationally. That's the time to
                          make smart purchases. Many companies might see
                          growth slow or sales decline, but that doesn't
                          necessarily dictate a 50% drop in stock value. I
                          wouldn't touch most banks with a 10 foot pole
                          right now, but people are still going to drink
                          beer, get laid, buy aspirin, etc. KO (which I do
                          not own) fell 34% this year because why? No good
                          reason. Even if sales slowed a little (which they
                          didn't) you've got to be kidding me... You wait
                          for the rally to buy. I'll buy before the rally
                          and lock in some really nice dividend yields
                          while I'm at it. I figure in another 10-15 years
                          my dividends will be yielding double figures based
                          on what I bought some stocks for. Some are
                          already close. Sure, the dividends might be cut
                          some near-term, but I don't sweat that.
                          \_ see my post "clearly what I am saying".  I agree
                             with you on many points, actually.  the biggest
                             place where we differ is what "timing the market"
                             means, but we can agree to disagree.
                          \_ What do Soros and Buffett do except time the
                             market?
                             \_ I don't know about Soros, but Buffett
                                looks at long-term potential and doesn't
                                worry about what the markets overall will do
                                tomorrow or 3 months from now.
                                \_ He holds onto his cash and waits to buy
                                   when he sees good values. I don't know how
                                   you can call that anything but "timing."
              \_ I'm on the same boat as you are, and I can hold for a very
                 long time, though if the market goes down 15% more,
                 I'd be a little bit worried because I'd have to keep
                 buying until... I run out, and god knows how low it's
                 gonna get. My gutsy feeling is that we're already hitting
                 the bottom, though, if it goes down say, 30-50% more,
                 I'd be very very anxious. But like you said, I'm not 64
                 so I got a few decades to wait, so that is good news.
           \_ This is called "testing the bottom."
              \_ clearly what I am saying is that there is a strong likelihood
                 that bottom will fail from 1 day to x months from now.  that's
                 a thesis that may be totally wrong, but i do believe it.
                 I also believe there is great merit to the "buy well-
                 diversified value stocks in businesses you understand" model
                 of investment--there's nothing wrong with that.  Index and
                 targeted retirement funds though ...
                 of investment--there's nothing wrong with that.  to put it
                 most clearly, the conclusion one could have reached not too
                 long ago was:  "My investments are excellent and diversified.
                 The stock will outperform.  However, the market is
                 overleveraged, and as funds and other financial entities
                 delever out of the market to raise cash in a multi-year,
                 global credit deleveraging (with all its associated nastiness)
                 I will move out into cash and replace it into the same stocks
                 at a lower entry point, maximizing my long-term compounded
                 gains.  When is that entry point?  Well, let's start with
                 the idea that it's a multi-year slow down ..."
                 btw, I'm also the guy who posted about traders expecting a
                 bounce tomorrow, Fri, or both, as Fri is OpEx day.  Yes, I'm
                 playing with my 20% money.
                 bounce tomorrow, Fri, or both, as Fri is OpEx day.
                 today, funds shat out of overlevered energy and commodity
                 based equity investments at a "high price", because they
                 believe in the multi-year thesis too.
                 I wonder how long it will take to purge all the levered
                 emerging market bets.
                 \_ What makes you believe that there are levered EM bets?
                    To me, China looks like it has the healthiest balance sheet
                    of any economy period right now.
                    \_ EM in general will continue to get super-smacked by
                       credit deleveraging.  as far as fund investment, "hot"
                       areas, like energy, commods and EM, were all levered up.
                       what i said was that, of these 3, EM has furthest to go
                       \_ Why do you think that EM is levered? You still have
                          not answered this question, just restated that you
                          are convinced that it is true. Stocks generally
                          are hard to leverage, unlike those other asset
                          classes.
                          \_ okay you got me there.  all i've got is that
                             general feeling based on the forums I troll.