www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/is-drudge-priming-mccain-reboot.html
just-released ABC/WaPo poll that show Obama continuing to gain ground. Drudge has a nose for news, and he knows that a one-point gain in a tracking poll is not news -- unless someone desperately wants it to be.
Bill Kristol advocates in his must-read Monday AM piece in the Times, including some combination of pledging to run a positive campaign; In fact, Kristol's column may be something of a trial balloon for this strategy. What the McCain campaign really, really doesn't want is for this move to be portrayed as desperate stunt. McCain has already developed a reputation for being a bit erratic under pressure -- the ABC/Post poll now shows that a 48-45 plurality of voters trust Obama to handle an "unexpected major crisis" -- and Bill Burton and Robert Gibbs must be foaming at the mouth waiting to spin something like this. The only way for McCain to do that is for him to convince the media that he already had the momentum.
McCain's repudiation of the woman who called Obama an "Arab" on Friday against John Lewis's comments from Saturday. They will suggest that McCain found his voice, and made the "maverick" move of telling off the Beltway Republicans who were urging him to go for blood. They will suggest that the reboot is a continuation of this strategy, and that -- as the Zogby poll so obviously attests to! But they'd seem to have little left to lose, and if the media is reminded of the "old" McCain, they may tend to give his narrative the benefit of the doubt.
It really depends on what direction the news networks decide to take with it. The people spinning it on either side will spin it, naturally. But the Media networks, rather than liberal or conservative bias, have been erratic in when and where they seem to push the narrative. My bet is that they'll cast it in a positive light, because CNN in particular has been majorly trying to downplay the "Obama leads in polls, major lead for Obama." Every time one of their panelists starts to call the race as in the bag, they end the segment or change subject.
It does look currently like the financial news has hit a slowing point, and that the new news cycle will kind of slow down the tone of disaster. Which does give McCain some ability to rewrite what is newsworthy. People's minds are still going to be on the economy, and not on John McCain's sudden decision to make over his image.
McCain's going to have to find some way to rein in Palin if he wants to go the kinder, gentler route. She seems to have totally not gotten the memo about backing off of the violent rhetoric.
Funny, I had just finished reading the Kristol piece when I clicked over to find this new entry. I don't care how good the numbers are (9:1, 20:1), just one month ago you wrote that the only reason for Obama to be in North Carolina was to help Hagan. The good lord may have giveth, but he (or she) can sure as hell taketh away (and before November 4th, too).
Obama's response will be: "If you knew that you had to raise the tenor of this campaign, why wait until so late? Perhaps it's honor that motivates this latest stunt, or perhaps the increase in negative polling. Or you could've shown some judgment and not gone negative to begin with."
and he has to go in with the message based on monday and tuesday. Past wednesday, its all political theatre, and thats game over for mccain. This guy moves in 1000 directions at once, and even the old people who barely watch the news are seeing it.
And from 7 or 8 in Rasmussen to 5 Reporters want the horse race, nothing more. Maybe you could, ya know, punch these numbers in your formula instead of poo pooing them. I am sure if they had happened to Obama he would have gained another 10 electoral votes by now on your chart.
The media will surely buy into anything it's fed that has any measure of sustenance. But this move, even if it sways the media, will have a negligible effect on McCain's polling. As it is, he's only maintaining the support of those types of loudmouth cretins with his campaigns tacit approval of their comments. If he comes out and formally rebukes them, he'll lose that 2-4% of voters who desperately want his campaign to condemn Obama. And the damage he's done to independents and GOP leaners is irreversible. They won't forget what he's been doing, at least not in less than a month.
The media's not looking for a "reboot"--McCain's wedded to his gravest errors... and dumping a campaign manager three weeks before the election will smell like week=old fish as far as desperation goes. Spinning a 1-2 point shift in some of the polls as "momentum" is going to looked at against the backdrop of the shift over 8 points AWAY from him... and the growing wave of national revulsion for his running mate (BAD JUDGMENT there, John)... who is going to be eating flaming Troopergate any time she sticks her head out of undisclosed location terrain. Shorter form: McCain wants to persuade people that he's bringing home the tiger when in fact, he's in the unenviable position of having no choice but to hold on to...
The McCain Alert System needs little McCain heads wearing appropriate expressions next to each color. "My friends, I allowed myself to be totally dominated and manipulated by a bunch of unscrupulous political hacks. My entire campaign has not been me at all, but was based on a lie. And now I'm admitting it, because I couldn't take it anymore. You can totally trust my judgment to make decisions affecting your lives!"
Also- Listen guys, obama gets the last word on all of everything going on. Hes BUYING 30 MINUTES DURING PRIMETIME ON ALL THE MAJOR NETWORKS FOR GODS SAKE. I emphasize that because even if people dont watch, when a candidate makes his own television special, you damn well better believe the media will be all over it.
Here's what I think: the markets are poised to rise tomorrow. He'll play it off as a success, as a relief, as if it's all his doing and as if the time for concern has passed. I'm not optimistic, but it may appear, if one only looks at the Dow, that things take a turn upwards. Then he'll try to say that the best thing to do to move the markets further is not to penalize investors, not to deter them from getting involved in the stock market. He'll say that the market is just limping along, and though we had a good day on Monday (tomorrow), we need to do everything we can to get the market back up to levels that it was at before. Of course, this all betrays his absolute idiocy with regard to the recent economic turmoil. But fuck it, he's naive about economics, and so is most of the country. There will probably be a collective sigh of relief tomorrow, thanks to the European banks...
And the idea that the media wants a horserace definately benefits McCain. If the WaPo poll thats +10 Obama gets poo-pooed by the press over the next 24 hours, McCain gets the green light for the reboot on Tuesday morning.
McCain is like a fish thats been hooked, drawn out of the water, and set loose on the boats deck. He's flopping around frantically gasping for air desperately looking for a way out, but knowing it will all soon be over. Chuck Todd form a couple weeks ago: "After the last debate, It's likely the polls will remain in a holding pattern until election day." So McCain's got one debate left with a large audience and Obama has trounced him in the last 2 debates. Obama has painted him as erratic, and and new shift will cement that idea. Obama/Axelrod are playing 2 moves ahead on the board right now, we're in the end game.
Even if the stock market rises, people are still spooked about the economy. I think one important reason Obama has been peeling votes off McCain is that Obama shows empathy for the problems of "average Americans". McCain can talk about his capital gains tax-cut but after the bailout, I don't think people are in the mood to hand more money over to rich investors.
I think it's too late for a "game-changer" by the McCain camp. If this were the first time he tried it, I think people would buy it, but good lord! He seems to throw hail marys so much that people just expect another one to be a gimmick.
WHO WATCHES THE WATCHMEN Thanks Nate These were thoughts I had also re...
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