10/8 Coordinated intl rate cuts
Ten year note up significantly even though equities down
-> potential "game over" (or ass-raping) scenario
In case anyone didn't see it yet, please see "Stock tip 3" from two
days ago
\_ I asked and he doesn't know what he's talking about. Now what?
You didn't give a single advice.
\_ well, my advice from 3 weeks ago was for the desired safe part
of your portfolio to be out 33% at 11388. I said back then that
this market could shitnap at any time so it was time to sell the
pop the next day.
My advice in "Stock tip 3" is: Don't go "all-in long" now in
case you're thinking about it.
Should you sell now, now that we're down to 9,270? It's your
call, but do your research and ask me a fundamentals question.
At this point I won't tell you to sell (but I will tell you to
"don't buy" index funds or the equivalent).
Actually, I will say I would go 80% into safe money right the
fuck now, but I'm not going to tell you to do that. It's your
money.
\_ I think it's time to buy. The market has overreacted.
\_ dude, the tip is: LEH CDS settlement in TWO FUCKING DAYS.
you don't hear this in mainstream news. i haven't been
playing a game with you guys for the last three months.
\_ what is LEH CDS
\_ lehman credit default swap settlement
financial institutions (including insurance co.'s)
will need significant cash to pay off insurance on
Lehman debt and other securities as a result of LEH
bankruptcy. these swaps are held around the world.
\_ oh i thought that all got sold to barclays
\_ only brokerage piece, because that has a whole
bunch of regular-investor money, I believe
\_ This is already priced in, imho.
\_ okay, I'm glad you're thinking though. IMO you
stand a better chance than people who haven't done
enough research to confidently say that.
\_ do you think the solvent finance firms will ask
for a gov. loan to help cover the costs of buying
the former assets of Lehman at firesale prices?
that would be ironic.
\_ if no one objects, sure! solvent financial
entities will be getting a whole lot of free
money. -op
\_ Well, I thought so last week and I was obviously
wrong. I am about 90% in right now and really
itching to go "all in" but the 10% that is still
out is my wife's IRA and she won't give the go
ahead. At some point I will start selling bonds
and buying stock, but I will probably wait until
Q1 for that. To clarify, I mean "all in" for the
65% of my capital that I risk in the equity
markets. I always keep about 6 months cash (that
works out to about 10%) 10% in US Bonds and 15%
in CA munis.
\_ marital bliss >> possible equity gain
besides, you already are 90% in. you'll be
a hero if you can sell at a good price.
a hero if you can sell at profit.
\_ I am pretty sure that by the time I
retire the stock market will be higher
than it is today.
\_ ^will be higher^return better than CD
rates -op
\_ Since the dividend yield on the SPY
alone is equal to current CD
alone is close to current CD
rates, it is hard to imagine how
I could go wrong. I guess all the
companies in the S&P 500 could cut
or eliminate dividends. |
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