Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 51429
Berkeley CSUA MOTD
2019/06/16 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular

2008/10/8-9 [Finance/Investment, Finance/Banking] UID:51429 Activity:kinda low 80%like:51427
10/8    Coordinated intl rate cuts
        Ten year note up significantly even though equities down
          -> potential "game over" (or ass-raping) scenario
        In case anyone didn't see it yet, please see "Stock tip 3" from two
        days ago
        \_ I asked and he doesn't know what he's talking about. Now what?
           You didn't give a single advice.
           \_ well, my advice from 3 weeks ago was for the desired safe part
              of your portfolio to be out 33% at 11388.  I said back then that
              this market could shitnap at any time so it was time to sell the
              pop the next day.
              My advice in "Stock tip 3" is:  Don't go "all-in long" now in
              case you're thinking about it.
              Should you sell now, now that we're down to 9,270?  It's your
              call, but do your research and ask me a fundamentals question.
              At this point I won't tell you to sell (but I will tell you to
              "don't buy" index funds or the equivalent).
              Actually, I will say I would go 80% into safe money right the
              fuck now, but I'm not going to tell you to do that.  It's your
              \_ I think it's time to buy. The market has overreacted.
                 \_ dude, the tip is:  LEH CDS settlement in TWO FUCKING DAYS.
                    you don't hear this in mainstream news.  i haven't been
                    playing a game with you guys for the last three months.
                    \_ what is LEH CDS
                       \_ lehman credit default swap settlement
                          financial institutions (including insurance co.'s)
                          will need significant cash to pay off insurance on
                          Lehman debt and other securities as a result of LEH
                          bankruptcy.  these swaps are held around the world.
                          \_ oh i thought that all got sold to barclays
                             \_ only brokerage piece, because that has a whole
                                bunch of regular-investor money, I believe
                    \_ This is already priced in, imho.
                       \_ okay, I'm glad you're thinking though.  IMO you
                          stand a better chance than people who haven't done
                          enough research to confidently say that.
                          \_ do you think the solvent finance firms will ask
                             for a gov. loan to help cover the costs of buying
                             the former assets of Lehman at firesale prices?
                             that would be ironic.
                             \_ if no one objects, sure!  solvent financial
                                entities will be getting a whole lot of free
                                money. -op
                           \_ Well, I thought so last week and I was obviously
                              wrong. I am about 90% in right now and really
                              itching to go "all in" but the 10% that is still
                              out is my wife's IRA and she won't give the go
                              ahead. At some point I will start selling bonds
                              and buying stock, but I will probably wait until
                              Q1 for that. To clarify, I mean "all in" for the
                              65% of my capital that I risk in the equity
                              markets. I always keep about 6 months cash (that
                              works out to about 10%) 10% in US Bonds and 15%
                              in CA munis.
                              \_ marital bliss >> possible equity gain
                                 besides, you already are 90% in.  you'll be
                                 a hero if you can sell at a good price.
                                 a hero if you can sell at profit.
                                 \_ I am pretty sure that by the time I
                                    retire the stock market will be higher
                                    than it is today.
                                    \_ ^will be higher^return better than CD
                                       rates -op
                                       \_ Since the dividend yield on the SPY
                                          alone is equal to current CD
                                          alone is close to current CD
                                          rates, it is hard to imagine how
                                          I could go wrong. I guess all the
                                          companies in the S&P 500 could cut
                                          or eliminate dividends.
2019/06/16 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular

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