9/14    bumped so this guy can see:
                    \_ I hope you are not still sitting out the month the
                       market goes up 20%, which it inevitably will, sooner
                       or later. How are you going to decide to jump back in?
                       \_ when the 50DMA increases past the 200DMA by 1% for
                          a major index
                          \_ Define "major index."
                             \_ DJIA.  Come on.  Hello?  I'm not trying to
                                "trick" you here.
                                \_ Okay, then post on the motd when you decide
                                   to get back in. I am kind of curious as to
                                   how your attempt at market timing works out.
                                   \_ all right.  keep in mind that I will
                                      likely put in 50-80% of my savings in,
                                      with 20-50% in CDs/bonds and "my favorite
                                      stocks"
                                      for the last 9-12 months, I have been 80%
                                      in CDs/bonds, and 20% in "my favorite
                                      shorts" (with appropriate stops)
                                      \_ There is a *huge* difference between
                                         being 20% cash and being 50% cash.
        \_ You're an idiot. I bet you predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions.
           I'm still in equities and I will be in equities 30 years from
           now. Have fun trading in and out. There's even a chance you
           will beat my return, but don't attribute it to skill.
           \_ bring up any major index in http://finance.yahoo.com.  use the
              Interactive Chart.  Draw the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA lines.
              go in at when the 50 crosses the 200 at +1%.  go out when the
              go in when the 50 crosses the 200 at +1%.  go out when the
              50 crosses the 200 at -1%.  now tell me who's the idiot.
              well, just emotional, but that's a normal reaction.
              well, just emotional, but that's a normal reaction.  people tell
              their relatives this shit and they tell them to go jump in a
              lake.  like i posted originally, it's your money, so do with it
              lake.  like i posted earlier, it's your money, so do with it
              what you will.
              \_ technical factors like those are not predictive.
                 \_ have you done the exercise yet?  please do so, and don't
                    respond right away.  wait a week.  run this on more
                    indices.  don't think about this in terms of who wins the
                    argument.  if you still don't wanna do it--that's fine,
                    but now you know what people like me are doing.
                    \_ Run what exercise?  Look at the past and expect it to
                       predict the future?  Here's a hint: The more people
                       try to chase the past behavior of the market, the
                       less it will behave like it used to.  This is exactly
                       the lesson of the hedge funds.  -tom
                       \_ "bring up any major index ...".  Do it.
                          think about it.  wait a week.  ask your respected
                          peers.  ask them to do it too.
                          the lesson on the hedge funds is that if you lever
                          up 30:1 it can bite you in the ass, especially if
                          you chase yield.
                          btw, I don't disagree with you on your point about
                          "the more people try to chase past behavior the less
                          it behaves like it used to".  in fact, this thought
                          is foremost of my concerns.
                          it behaves like it used to".
                          \_ The hedge funds wound up leveraging up because the
                             return on their strategy fell from .5% to less
                             than .2% in just a few years.  Individuals trying
                             to identify technical criteria for investing
                             are basically like the guy who has a system to
                             win in Vegas.  -tom
                             \_ 80% of technical analysis is crap.  have you
                                performed the exercise yet?  anyways, it's
                                your money.  ^Vegas^poker.
                                performed the exercise yet?  please do
                                consider this for a week.  you can check out
                                performance every 6 months.  it seems like
                                we're not going to settle this now, anyway.
                                \_ This would have nicely dodged the last two
                                   downturns, but look at 1987-1992 for a
                                   period where this strategy leaves you
                                   trailing a buy and hold investor by quite
                                   a bit.
        \_ for more detail on what tom is talking about, look up David Swensen
           or John Bogle.
           \_ works very well in a bull market, and much, much better than
              "letting J6P have at it with the market" -op
        \_ When will be the peak tomorrow?
           \_ Today was +3.86% in DJIA.  Expect up to +4%, then look for
              resistance on upward movement.  Largest volume occurs in the last
              [see thread]
              \_ DJIA is now +3.34% and shows upward resistance.
                 for example, today I would move ~16% of my final desired
                 for example, now I would move ~16% of my final desired
                 safety portion of my portfolio out of stocks.
                 Certainly there is a chance it can go higher, but if it rises
                 to +4.0% I would drop off another ~16%; or if I were rally
                 to +4.0% I would move another ~16%; or if I were really
                 sophisticated I would set some EOD limit orders on this +4.0%
                 and sell earlier on some new 1-day top with upward
                 and sell earlier on some new 1-day local maximum with upward
                 resistance.  as always, please consult a professional
                 financial advisor. -op
                 \_ summary:  you should already have been out 33% as of the
                    drop past +4.0%. -op