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| 5/24 |
| 2008/9/12-19 [Politics/Foreign/Asia/India, Politics/Foreign/Asia/Others] UID:51153 Activity:low |
9/12 Perhaps it is a War with Pakistan that is the October Surprise:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_as/pakistan_13
This seems kind of stupid, especially since Pakistan has nukes.
\_ Given that we know the problem with Pakistan and nukes, can you
think of why there might be a reason to do this anyway?
\_ There's never a reason for war. -liberal
\_ So civil war and ww2 were a waste of time?
\_ The GOP is behind in the polls?
\_ The GOP is behind the polls?
\- war is a "continuation of policy by other means" ... i dont think
the us has policy goals w.r.t. pakistan which require "going to
war" at the moment. rather it is a case of the us just ignoring
pakistan's sovereignty, cf. Melian Dialog: "the strong do what
they can and the weak suffer what they must." of course this is
an interesting norm for the us to push ... say while lecturing
russian about georgia, or in the future if say india decides
they need to attack inside pakistan based on goals relating
to india's kashmir policy [although this may be better deterred
by nukes]. pakistan was never the us's friend and the us not
taking india's side for many years shows how cheap political
rhetoic and ideology is [although to be expected in the
rhetoric and ideology is [although to be expected in the
anarchic international system].
\_ Do you know what a casus belli is?
\- yes, i do. do you know what "proechein/proschema" means?
(thucydides >> grotius, waltzer, augustine etc). anyway,
there is CB/normative, CB/propaganda and CB/empirical.
anyway, the point is "casus belli/normative aka "ius ad
bellum" has changed over time" (as has "ius in bello") ...
material resources, security dilemma, religious conversion
etc. the US/bush doctrine partly has been controversial
because it suggests a change in casus belli/normative.
as was say the monroe doctrine introducing [sic] the idea
of a "sphere of influence". of course, i'm only guessing
about "what is your point" ...
\_ http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080916/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan_10
\_ http://preview.tinyurl.com/6ocw7w
Pakistan is going to start shooting back, which kind of
puts a hole in your theory that they just have to put up
with our shenanigans.
\_ So what if Pakistan has nukes? I don't think they want to play
that game with USA. USA spent a lot of time and money
during the cold war planning engagements against an enemy
"with nukes".
\_ I wouldn't be so sure about that if I were you. The
government is very shakey there right now and it is
not out of the question that we could end up with a bunch
of Muslim Brotherhood types running that country. It is
kind of hard to tell how they would react to their territorial
sovereignty being violated like that. |
| 5/24 |
|
| news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_as/pakistan_13 AP Pakistan could end cooperation in war on terror By PAUL ALEXANDER, Associated Press Writer Fri Sep 12, 6:34 PM ET ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - The furor intensified Friday over Washington's decision to pursue Islamic militant targets inside Pakistan, with opposition lawmakers threatening the country could pull out of the war on terror if the US refuses to respect its borders. WnmfDxJJQD9xg8F/Y=YAHOO/EXP=122129378 8/L=_dmnRkWTVvr83xETQI4VvwmtRTfow0jLWrwAAg3a/B=0aJnDdj8els-/J=12212865 88149362/A=5406486/R=0/* About 100 protesters burned American flags after the latest missile attack left at least 12 people dead in the North Waziristan region of the troubled northwest. Residents said they heard the sound of propeller-driven US Predator drones circling overhead before the explosions. President Bush secretly approved more aggressive cross-border operations in July, current and former American officials have told The Associated Press. The frontier region is considered a likely hiding place for Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri. Pakistan's government and military have issued stiff protests to Washington over the recent rash of cross-border strikes, although the criticism appeared to be mostly rhetoric aimed at soothing domestic anger, given that Pakistan has few options for stronger action. Domestic media have criticized the government for not reacting more strongly, even suggesting the public criticism is just lip service and that a secret deal has been reached with Pakistan's leadership allowing cross-border incursions. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has denied that and vowed to protect the country's sovereignty "at all cost." Leaders, including new President Asif Ali Zardari, have reiterated their commitment to fighting violent Islamic extremism and have aired no threats to withdraw their cooperation. However, they are sensitive to public opinion in Pakistan, which is hostile to US policy in the region. Agitation on the issue by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who heads the main opposition party and has a large popular following, could make it hard for Islamabad to maintain the close alliance with Washington forged by Zardari's predecessor, Pervez Musharraf. "We need at this time to make it clear to foreign countries that Pakistan will not tolerate such actions," said Ahsan Iqbal, a lawmaker in Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N party. "If it continues, then Pakistan can consider pulling out completely from this war on terror." Iqbal and another party leader called for an urgent parliament session to debate how Pakistan can respond. "The parliament must be convened on a one-point agenda, because the nation is under a threat of war," said lawmaker Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan. "Irrespective of where the threat is, every inch of this country is sovereign. Defense Minister Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar said Pakistan's armed forces were "ready to meet any such eventuality if this is repeated" and evoked Pakistan's war against India in 1965. Despite the strong language, parliament has few options beyond issuing a condemnation of cross-border raids and reiterating the country's sovereignty. Realistically, there's not much Pakistan can do to stop the US from mounting cross-border attacks, short of shooting down helicopters carrying allied forces. And breaking off relations would mean an end to billions of dollars in US aid at a time when Pakistan's economy badly needs foreign assistance. Most analysts doubt Pakistan is ready to reverse Musharraf's decision in the wake of the Sept. Even Musharraf raised the specter of pulling out of the war on terror, complaining repeatedly that Pakistan's sacrifices in fighting the militants were not properly recognized. Officials say more than 1,000 troops and police have died since 2001, far more than the losses for international forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan has also suffered a wave of suicide bombings that began last year and has killed and maimed thousands more. Pakistani commentators have been near-unanimous in predicting that unilateral US strikes and civilian casualties will wreck the moderate government's effort to persuade its citizens that fighting violent Islamic extremism is in their own national interest. "America is daily deepening the well of resentment against itself that no amount of aid or pious diplomatic platitudes will ever fill," The News daily said in an editorial Friday. Some analysts suggest the Bush administration is turning up the heat in Pakistan, hoping for last-minute victories in the face of a growing Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. But such cross-border operations are a "risky maneuver" and the US has to be careful not to dismiss the help it is getting from Pakistan, said Robert Hathaway, director of the Asia program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. "Too many of these operations will make the Pakistani army less willing to work with us," which could negatively affect future US leadership," he said. "Because the situation in Iraq has by most accounts improved, there's a capacity for the administration to shift gears and devote more military and intelligence resources to Pakistan and Afghanistan issues," said Daniel Markey, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "What I don't know and what will be important is whether this is a shift that will be lasting," he said. Zardari and Afghan President Hamid Karzai, at a joint news conference Tuesday, emphasized the need to eliminate civilian casualties, which fuel anti-government sentiment. Pakistani protesters burn US flag and an effigy of US President George Bush to condemn alleged strikes in Pakistani tribal areas along Afghanistan border, Wednesday, Sept 10, 2008 in Multan, Pakistan. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. |
| news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080916/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan_10 AP Pakistan troops ordered to open fire on US raiders By STEPHEN GRAHAM, Associated Press Writer Tue Sep 16, 6:34 PM ET ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Pakistan's army said Tuesday that its forces have orders to open fire if US troops launch another raid across the Afghan border, raising the stakes in a dispute over how to tackle militant havens in Pakistan's unruly border zone. WnmfDxJJQD9xg8F/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1221639339/L=A4MwI0WTVvr8 3xETQI4Vvwc7RTfow0jQoIsAAPxV/B=UdLCGdj8els-/J=1221632139510919/A=54068 09/R=0/* Adm. Mike Mullen, the US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, arrived in Pakistan late Tuesday amid the increased tensions. Mullen planned to meet with top civilian and military leaders to discuss a range of issues, including ways to improve coordination and cooperation along the Pakistan-Afghan border. Pakistan's government has faced rising popular anger over a Sept. Pakistan says about 15 people were killed, all of them civilians. The new firing orders were disclosed by Pakistani army spokesman Maj Gen. Athar Abbas in an interview Tuesday with The Associated Press. Abbas said Pakistani field commanders have previously been tolerant about international forces crossing a short way into Pakistan because of the ill-defined and contested nature of the mountainous frontier. "In case it happens again in this form, that there is a very significant detection, which is very definite, no ambiguity, across the border, on ground or in the air: open fire." Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Pakistan's army chief, raised eyebrows last week by vowing to defend Pakistani territory "at all cost." Abbas would not say whether the orders were discussed in advance with US officials. Gary Ackerman, Democratic chair of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South Asia, and other lawmakers expressed concern about Abbas' comments at a hearing Tuesday to examine a Bush administration request to fund an upgrade of Pakistan's aging fleet of F-16 fighter planes. Responding to the concerns, Donald Camp, deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, said: "I cannot envision a situation where we would find ourselves in a shooting situation with Pakistan." President Asif Ali Zardari, the newly elected successor to US ally Pervez Musharraf, declined to comment on the order to use lethal force on American troops, telling reporters in London: "I don't think there will be any more" cross-border operations by the US US military commanders complain Islamabad has been doing too little to prevent the Taliban and other militant groups from recruiting, training and resupplying in Pakistan's lawless tribal belt. Pakistan acknowledges the presence of al-Qaida fugitives and its difficulties in preventing militants from seeping into Afghanistan. However, it insists it is doing what it can and paying a heavy price, pointing to its deployment of more then 100,000 troops in the increasingly restive northwest and a wave of suicide bombings across the country. Mullen, who is on his fifth visit to Pakistan since assuming his post, intended to "discuss ongoing operations in the border region" with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and army chief Kayani, said Mullen spokesman Lt. "He has been focused keenly on working more closely with the Pakistani military to improve coordination and effectiveness in operations against extremist safe havens in the border regions," Tallman said. American officials have confirmed US forces carried out the Sept. Abbas said that Pakistan's military had asked for an explanation but received only a half-page of "very vague" information that failed to identify the intended target. He said the dead all appeared to be civilians, adding: "These were truck drivers, local traders and their families." Abbas said Pakistani officials had to consider public opinion, which is skeptical of American goals in the region and harbors sympathy for militants fighting in the name of Islam. "Please look at the public reaction to this kind of adventure or incursion," Abbas said. "The army is also an extension of the public, and you can only satisfy the public when you match your words with your actions." However, some analysts forecast that the consequences of alienating the United States would stay the army's hand. "If an American soldier were to die because of Pakistani military firing that would damage the Pakistani-American relationship for years to come," said Craig Cohen, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The threat "might stir nationalist sentiment in Pakistan and play well politically, but it's just not realistic," he said. Pakistan's military has won American praise for a six-week offensive against militants in the Bajur tribal region that Pakistani officials say has killed 700 suspected insurgents and about 40 troops. Troops backed by warplanes killed 15 more alleged militants Tuesday, officials said. In the same timeframe, there has been a surge in missile strikes apparently carried out by unmanned US drones. Such attacks killed at least two senior al-Qaida commanders earlier this year. All of those strikes have been well to the south of Bajur, in areas where Pakistani authorities have sought peace deals in order to gain respite from militant attacks. Abbas said that while they were tackling the "mega-sanctuary" in Bajur, they didn't have the forces to fight militants across the tribal belt all at one time. At least two other areas have been earmarked for military operations, he said. Jalaluddin Haqqani, a formidable Taliban commander whose relatives were reportedly among the dead in one of the recent missile attacks, was definitely in Afghanistan, he added. Abbas denied the new order had been put into practice before dawn on Monday, when US helicopters reportedly landed near Angoor Ada only to fly away after troops fired warning shots. Abbas insisted no foreign troops had crossed the border and that "trigger-happy tribesmen" fired the shots. Pakistani troops based nearby fired flares to see what was going on, he said. The US military in Afghanistan said none of its troops were involved. A Pakistan soldier mans a machine gun in the troubled area of Bajur in Pakistan's tribal area Tuesday, Sept 16, 2008. Pakistan's military has ordered its forces to open fire if US troops launch another raid across the Afghan border, an army spokesman said Tuesday. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. |
| preview.tinyurl.com/6ocw7w -> news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080916/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan_10 AP Pakistan troops ordered to open fire on US raiders By STEPHEN GRAHAM, Associated Press Writer Tue Sep 16, 6:34 PM ET ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Pakistan's army said Tuesday that its forces have orders to open fire if US troops launch another raid across the Afghan border, raising the stakes in a dispute over how to tackle militant havens in Pakistan's unruly border zone. WnmfDxJJQD9xg8F/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1221639339/L=A4MwI0WTVvr8 3xETQI4Vvwc7RTfow0jQoIsAAPxV/B=UdLCGdj8els-/J=1221632139510919/A=54068 09/R=0/* Adm. Mike Mullen, the US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, arrived in Pakistan late Tuesday amid the increased tensions. Mullen planned to meet with top civilian and military leaders to discuss a range of issues, including ways to improve coordination and cooperation along the Pakistan-Afghan border. Pakistan's government has faced rising popular anger over a Sept. Pakistan says about 15 people were killed, all of them civilians. The new firing orders were disclosed by Pakistani army spokesman Maj Gen. Athar Abbas in an interview Tuesday with The Associated Press. Abbas said Pakistani field commanders have previously been tolerant about international forces crossing a short way into Pakistan because of the ill-defined and contested nature of the mountainous frontier. "In case it happens again in this form, that there is a very significant detection, which is very definite, no ambiguity, across the border, on ground or in the air: open fire." Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Pakistan's army chief, raised eyebrows last week by vowing to defend Pakistani territory "at all cost." Abbas would not say whether the orders were discussed in advance with US officials. Gary Ackerman, Democratic chair of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South Asia, and other lawmakers expressed concern about Abbas' comments at a hearing Tuesday to examine a Bush administration request to fund an upgrade of Pakistan's aging fleet of F-16 fighter planes. Responding to the concerns, Donald Camp, deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, said: "I cannot envision a situation where we would find ourselves in a shooting situation with Pakistan." President Asif Ali Zardari, the newly elected successor to US ally Pervez Musharraf, declined to comment on the order to use lethal force on American troops, telling reporters in London: "I don't think there will be any more" cross-border operations by the US US military commanders complain Islamabad has been doing too little to prevent the Taliban and other militant groups from recruiting, training and resupplying in Pakistan's lawless tribal belt. Pakistan acknowledges the presence of al-Qaida fugitives and its difficulties in preventing militants from seeping into Afghanistan. However, it insists it is doing what it can and paying a heavy price, pointing to its deployment of more then 100,000 troops in the increasingly restive northwest and a wave of suicide bombings across the country. Mullen, who is on his fifth visit to Pakistan since assuming his post, intended to "discuss ongoing operations in the border region" with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and army chief Kayani, said Mullen spokesman Lt. "He has been focused keenly on working more closely with the Pakistani military to improve coordination and effectiveness in operations against extremist safe havens in the border regions," Tallman said. American officials have confirmed US forces carried out the Sept. Abbas said that Pakistan's military had asked for an explanation but received only a half-page of "very vague" information that failed to identify the intended target. He said the dead all appeared to be civilians, adding: "These were truck drivers, local traders and their families." Abbas said Pakistani officials had to consider public opinion, which is skeptical of American goals in the region and harbors sympathy for militants fighting in the name of Islam. "Please look at the public reaction to this kind of adventure or incursion," Abbas said. "The army is also an extension of the public, and you can only satisfy the public when you match your words with your actions." However, some analysts forecast that the consequences of alienating the United States would stay the army's hand. "If an American soldier were to die because of Pakistani military firing that would damage the Pakistani-American relationship for years to come," said Craig Cohen, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The threat "might stir nationalist sentiment in Pakistan and play well politically, but it's just not realistic," he said. Pakistan's military has won American praise for a six-week offensive against militants in the Bajur tribal region that Pakistani officials say has killed 700 suspected insurgents and about 40 troops. Troops backed by warplanes killed 15 more alleged militants Tuesday, officials said. In the same timeframe, there has been a surge in missile strikes apparently carried out by unmanned US drones. Such attacks killed at least two senior al-Qaida commanders earlier this year. All of those strikes have been well to the south of Bajur, in areas where Pakistani authorities have sought peace deals in order to gain respite from militant attacks. Abbas said that while they were tackling the "mega-sanctuary" in Bajur, they didn't have the forces to fight militants across the tribal belt all at one time. At least two other areas have been earmarked for military operations, he said. Jalaluddin Haqqani, a formidable Taliban commander whose relatives were reportedly among the dead in one of the recent missile attacks, was definitely in Afghanistan, he added. Abbas denied the new order had been put into practice before dawn on Monday, when US helicopters reportedly landed near Angoor Ada only to fly away after troops fired warning shots. Abbas insisted no foreign troops had crossed the border and that "trigger-happy tribesmen" fired the shots. Pakistani troops based nearby fired flares to see what was going on, he said. The US military in Afghanistan said none of its troops were involved. A Pakistan soldier mans a machine gun in the troubled area of Bajur in Pakistan's tribal area Tuesday, Sept 16, 2008. Pakistan's military has ordered its forces to open fire if US troops launch another raid across the Afghan border, an army spokesman said Tuesday. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. |