www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/flip-flopping-as-american-as-apple-pie.html
CNN reveal that Americans think both Barack Obama and John McCain are flip-floppers -- but like them just fine anyway: Sixty-one percent of voters believe that McCain has changed his mind for political reasons; Fifty-nine percent of voters believe that Obama also shifts positions with the political winds; "One of the reasons President Bush won reelection in 2004 was that only one-third of voters believed he would change his policy positions because of changing political dynamics. Most voters, on the other hand, believed that John Kerry was a flip-flopper." I'm moderately surprised that McCain's number is as high as it is, since the media has tended not to highlight his flip-flops. I'm not one of those people, by the way, that thinks the media is constantly biased in John McCain's direction. I think Obama gets more of the bad from the media, but also more of the good.
made before: John McCain is not seen as having the higher ground on the flip-flops issue in the same way that George W Bush was. Nor is it clear that being labeled as a flip-flopper is necessarily some kind of death-knell for Obama (or McCain for that matter): both candidates were regarded favorably in this poll overall. That's not to say there isn't any danger on this point to Barack Obama. I think his flip-flop numbers will go up some, and I think that might harm his approval numbers by a point or two.
Noam Schieber: John Kerry's problem wasn't that people saw him as a flip-flopper, it's that people saw him as sort of a poseur. Likewise, with Mitt Romney, the flip-flop label really stuck in the primaries -- partly because Romney has changed his positioning on a lot of issues (there's a fascinating argument that Romney could have won the primaries if he'd run as a competent, moderate reformer) -- but also because people just don't like the guy. Another difference with John Kerry is that he committed a gaffe that compounded his reputation for flip-flopping: namely, by saying the words "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it". it is the opposite of a gaffe, something done intentionally with an eye toward improving one's electoral standing. But Kerry's sloppy phrasing was a gaffe, and one of the more damaging utterances since "Read My Lips: No New Taxes". Finally, Kerry's alleged flip-flop on the Iraq War was not toward the center, but toward the left. It's harder to criticize a candidate when they're taking on a position that is more in line with your own. Moreover, it appeared as though Kerry had been opportunistic twice over: first in voting for the war in the first place, when most of the mainline liberals in the Senate hadn't --and then by reversing his position later on.
Remember Americans' #1 complaint about Bush: "He's not a flip-flopper", usually phrased more like "He is too stubborn to ever admit he made a mistake" I'm not sure how much this will hurt Obama. As the poll makes clear, McCain has flipflopped himself. Frankly, I think its impossible to be in the Senate and not flipflop a time or two.
Anytime you are for confiscating guns, but are now against consfiscating guns Anytime your are against NAFTA, but are now for NAFTA Anytime time you are for a hate spewing, race ranting preacher for 20 years, but are now against a hate spewing, race ranting preacher. Anytime you are for public financing in a presidential race, but are now against public financing Anytime you are against the death penalty but are now for the death penalty Anytime you are for the immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq, but are now against the withdrawal You are having a bad day, and the American People will have to ask themselves, "Who do you want in the oval office sitting at that desk when the military comes in and says, "Mr President, Iran just dropped a nuclear bomb on Israel, What do we do?"
I think at some point this narrative will simply fall apart. In 2004 we had an argument that went along the lines of: "This is the right position. Kerry keeps flopping in between them to gain popularity." In this case (and several others going on right now), the Republican pressers are trying to force Obama into a catch-22. That's the most obvious one, but there are other similar ones. Instead of making it look like McCain is showing Obama the right way to do things, it makes him look more political and unprincipled. He would have gotten far more mileage, for example, of congratulating Obama about going and then taking credit for changing his mind, making it look like he's the one calling the shots.
Anon: When did he ever say he was for "confiscating guns". When did he ever say he was "for NAFTA" When did he say he was "against the withdrawal" Frankly, your problem is that you want to summarize complex positions as being the most extreme positions you can think of. Then you go back and reread the positions and see that they are more centrist than you thought. He must of flipflopped because he didn't live up to your cartoon character version of him. He has grown up adult centrist views on all of these issues. They aren't simple issues and can't be summarized in single sentences. Just because he isn't the extremist you seem to want him to be, doesn't mean he is a flip flopper.
that we must look at conditions on the ground and draw down troops as quickly as possible without destabilizing the progress that's been gained." It's politically the right position to take, but it will outrage the netroots, and it will make Obama look like he's following McCain's advice in foreign policy and will give those who were backing Obama because of Iraq a reason to take another look at McCain or third-party candidates.
It's a losing tactic for the Republicans, simply because McCain has done it so many times more. at absolutely best it might depress support for Obama a little, on account of his 'new politics' message getting worn away.
Theres another point on the flipflop question that I raised before and would like to raise again: Swing voters are flipfloppers themselves. Anybody that routinely changes from one party to the other must have a somewhat complicated view of the world and see things in shades of gray. I find it difficult to believe that they are that judgmental about centrists taking nuanced positions when they themselves are centrists with nuanced positions. Nate: Do you have any polling data on how much "flipflopping" really hurt Kerry? I've always believed that it wasn't flipflopping or swift boats. It was the first election after 9/11 and centrists still had fairly warm feelings of Bush's reaction, plus were susceptible to the fear card. Frankly, I'm sort of surprised Kerry came close that year. Anyway to judge exactly what swing voters were thinking.
because he isn't the extremist you seem to want him to be, doesn't mean he is a flip flopper. July 3, 2008 5:12 PM Duh, JeffC, please take your head from where the sun doesn't shine, BHO should be nicknamed the rubber band man. He makes so many twists and turns he will have to put a neck brace on to keep from getting whiplash. You have buried your head in the sand about this guy and refuse to see him for what he really is, an extremely unqualified, untested candidate who has no idea what his position is on any single issue Your response that OBAMA has grown up centrist views that can't be written down in one sentence is absolute BS. Tell that to Joe 6-pack in Michigan and he will ask the same thing-for Nafta or against, for gun control or against;
Your post said that Obama was for "confiscating guns", "against NAFTA" and "against withdrawal". I challenged you to show me where he ever said any of these things. I always viewed him as a centrist because I actually read his policies during the primaries. They contained a great deal more nuance and centrism than was generally reported. Everybody wanted to see him as an extreme liberal cartoon character. Liberals because they loved the idea of a liberal president and conservatives because they loved the idea of running against a liberal. Now you are saying that he is changing from these extreme liberal positions. "confiscating guns" "against NAFTA" "against Withdrawal" Prove it or ...
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